Weekend Estimates: Lego Batman 55.6M, 50 Shades 46.7M, John Wick 2 30M

[YM!]

20 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

$35-40m seems about right for Ninjago, I wouldn't be surprised if it goes higher. Smallfoot is difficult to predict because we've seen no footage yet but I think it needs to move away from a packed February, SCOOB I think will move from September, I don't see $50m for it but $35-45m range wouldn't surprise me. 

 

 

WAG is building a solid foundation for their films and I wouldn't be surprised if their films start to outgross the likes of Blue Sky, SPA, maybe even DWA

In terms of animated box office:

Top Tier: WDAS, Pixar, Illumination 

Middle Tier: WAG, Dreamworks

Average Tier: SPA, Paramount, Blue Sky

Bottom Tier: Anything Lionsgate or Weinstein Company

[Blaze Heatnix]

17 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

US release would have to be VOD. No point spending $20-30M P&A on a $25m grosser. 

 

 

To be honest, the 5 year gap between Retribution and this one, didn't help at all.

 

Let's also not forget the huge competition.

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

In terms of animated box office:

Top Tier: WDAS, Pixar, Illumination 

Middle Tier: WAG, Dreamworks

Average Tier: SPA, Paramount, Blue Sky

Bottom Tier: Anything Lionsgate or Weinstein Company

 

DWA really fell from grace, they were top tier at one point and perhaps Blue Sky although outside of Ice Age and Rio didn't produce huge hits.

[Maxmoser3]

Sequels lead a big busy februrary weekend.

the three sequels all led the top three spots this weekend, and only one was able to outgrows its predecessor. But all were off to fine starts.

overall the top 12 was at $176.9 million which is up nearly 116 percent from last year which is fantastic for a non- Valentine's Day or non-President's Day weekend.

While it wasn't first Friday, The LEGO Batman Movie managed to lead the weekend with an estimated $55.6 million which is below the opening weekend of The Lego Movie 3 years ago but not too bad for a spinoff film. With solid word of mouth, a 4-day weekend coming up, and nothing to spice up choices for Families until the end of next month. Look for Lego Batman to swing around $195-$200 million domestic total.

Sexy romantic sequel, Fifty Shades Darker had a decent start with an estimated $46.7 million. That debut is well below Fifty Shades Of Grey's $85 million debut 2 years ago but keep in mind that it had Valentine's Day on a Saturday that year, and a 4-day weekend as well. While the critics weren't so kind to the film, audiences seemed to like it better than the first film as it had a solid B+ Cinemascore and a decent 67% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes(the first film was under 40% as this point), the film should hold up solid with Valentine's Day on Tuesday and the 4-day weekend coming up. Look for Fifty Shades Darker to end its run around $110 million domestic.

While the other two sequels couldn't shoot out it's predecessor, John Wick Chapter 2 was able to knock out its predecessor big time this weekend with an estimated $30 million. Which is Keanu Reeves best debut since Constantine 12 years ago, and above the norm for action films released around this time(although it's below Kingsman). With solid word of mouth, and audiences loving it better than it's predecessor and with no completion for action audiences until March 3rd. John Wick should hang on, while it has a shot at $100 million it's hard to tell but for right look for John Wick to end its run around $80 million domestic.

Last weekend's champ, Split had another solid hold around 35% and should end its run around $145 million.

Hidden Figures still hanging on with another under 25% drop, and should make $155-$160 million domestic.

A Dog's Purpose dropped around 30% which is quite solid, and should make above $50 million.

Last weekend's "big release" Rings dropped around 55% which is typical for a horror sequel but it's slightly better than The Ring Two's 61% drop 12 years ago. Look for Rings to fall short of $30 million.

La La Land still holding strong once again, and with the Oscars coming up in a few weeks, La La Land should make around $160 million domestic.

Lion had another increase this weekend, and should hold on fine. Lion should make around $35-$40 million.

The Space Between Us didn't really make it up with audiences this weekend as it dropped around 53%, and should still fall short of $10 million. 

[YM!]

5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

DWA really fell from grace, they were top tier at one point and perhaps Blue Sky although outside of Ice Age and Rio didn't produce huge hits.

Blue Sky and Dreamworks (2013-2017) didn't reach top tier because Fox is bad at marketing animated movies. For me in order to middle tier you need at least one movie over $200M at the domestic box office.

Edited February 12, 2017 by YourMother

[Maxmoser3]

20 hours ago, Rman823 said:

And on SyFy earlier this week. I understand they're both NBC Universal channels but USA makes more sense than SyFy. BTW I'm still waiting for 50 Shades to hit basic cable to see how bad it's butchered.

FX will likely get Fifty Shades Of Grey. 

[Gabriel Sales]

I believe in next weekend for LEGO Batman: $ 36 millions - Total: $ 100 millions

[Jonwo]

9 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Blue Sky and Dreamworks (2013-2017) didn't reach top tier because Fox is bad at marketing animated movies. For me in order to middle tier you need at least one movie over $200M at the domestic box office.

 

Blue Sky have got close to $200m, I would say the OS numbers of the Ice Age films more than makes up for they haven't had a huge domestic hit.

 

SPA is more mixed, I liked Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs and Hotel Transylvania 1 and 2 were decent but they do seem a bit directionless. If it wasn't for Smurfs, Cloudy and HT, they would closed a long time ago

[Jandrew]

John Wick mannnnnnnnnnnnnnnn. So so good. 

 

"We eating Applebees after this"  @Jayhawk @MrPink

[Incarnadine]

Awesome for JW2, it managed to increase on Saturday, even counting previews.

[YM!]

10 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

Blue Sky have got close to $200m, I would say the OS numbers of the Ice Age films more than makes up for they haven't had a huge domestic hit.

 

SPA is more mixed, I liked Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs and Hotel Transylvania 1 and 2 were decent but they do seem a bit directionless. If it wasn't for Smurfs, Cloudy and HT, they would closed a long time ago

SPA only films that I think could reach $200M+ domestic are HT3 and Animated Spider-Man.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

John Wick 2 was everything I wanted the original to be.

[ACSlater]

delete...wrong thread

 

 

 

Edited February 12, 2017 by ACSlater

[Jake Gittes]

30 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

 

While the other two sequels couldn't shoot out it's predecessor, John Wick Chapter 2 was able to knock out its predecessor big time this weekend with an estimated $30 million. Which is Keanu Reeves best debut since Constantine 12 years ago

 

The Day the Earth Stood Still. Though I can't blame anyone for forgetting it exists

[WrathOfHan]

18 minutes ago, jandrew said:

John Wick mannnnnnnnnnnnnnnn. So so good. 

 

"We eating Applebees after this"  @Jayhawk @MrPink

I'd totally eat the ham Fishburne gets from Applebee's  

[YM!]

Seeing John Wick Chapter Two in a few hours.

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, MattW said:

Steve Mcqueen

 

Darn.

 

I was hoping whoever it was could play Wolverine. 

[Jonwo]

14 minutes ago, YourMother said:

SPA only films that I think could reach $200M+ domestic are HT3 and Animated Spider-Man.

 

I doubt HT3 will but Animated Spider-Man could do it.

[grim22]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

 

I doubt HT3 will but Animated Spider-Man could do it.

 

Spider-Man has the advantage of Christmas holidays. It will crack 200M even with just a 30M OW.

[YM!]

TBH in holiday 2018, I see Animated Spider-Man and Grinch both doing over Gigantic domestic.