Weekend Estimates: Kong 61M, Logan 37.8M, Get Out 21M, Shack 10M, Lego Batman 7.8M

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, Cookson said:

Alright, so RTH is 24.6 and deadline is 23.9... Whose the winner?

 

Always RTH. 

[MCKillswitch123]

Kong at a 60M OW? That's gooooood. That's quite good. It seems that the four quadrant-ness is finally coming into play. Now, I'll play devil's advocate in DHD's and any anti-Kong sentiments' side here and admit that, yes, a 60M OW is still not impressive enough to cover the ridiculous budget. The movie needs about 400M WW to break even, and OS only gives around 40% of its grosses back to studios (China is even less). However, I think that we're all counting on 300M OS at the very least (which is saying something), and w/the 130, now potentially 140M that Kong will do DOM, that'll get it around 450M WW, which is more than fine enough given the position this movie was put in (sandwiched in between two of the most anticipated movies of the year, without that much buzz to go w/it). And that's the difference maker: the fact that, despite the low expectations and supposedly low buzz as well, the movie's still performing very respectably on all fronts. This obviously bodes well for the future of the Kongzilla verse.

 

Logan looking at a 40M hold, DHD strikes again w/the mega lowballing from their original 35M prediction. That would be a 54% 2nd weekend hold, which would be the 2nd best sophomore hold EVER in the X-Men franchise, only behind X2 w/a 53% drop. For an R-rated gritty and sad western ft. Wolverine, that's pretty good. Wouldn't say it's more impressive than Deadpool's 1st hold (55% coming off a 130M+ holiday OW), but Deadpool had zero competition, while Logan is surrounded by it, so it's an unfair comparision.

 

GO is totally doing 20M 3rd weekend. That is happening. Wow. I thought it was gonna be tough to do that on its OW, thinking of it as a Lights Out-type performer, closer to Don't Breathe if WOM really exploded. Unbelievable.

 

So, between a 60M opener, a sub-55% drop for an R-rated X-Men film, and a 20M 3rd weekend hold for an R-rated horror movie, PLUS BATB, Trainspotting, GOTS, Power Rangers, Life, and Boss Baby still to come (not stanning for that though, just hoping for decent numbers, for DreamWorks and animated films' sakes), best March ever?

Edited March 12, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[dxmatrixdt]

Logan made 115 in its first 7 days.  So double that at 230 would be a good target?? 

Kong might follow Jason Bourne, Star Trek Beyond, and fall to under 25 second weekend, 160M total???

 

Get Out

@ 3,143 locations

Fri - 6

Sat - 9

Sun - 6 = total - 111

 

Monday - 2.25 (a little high cuz of Spring break)

Tuesday increase, but Wednesday the same, and Thursday drops, so average at 2.25 per day for 4 days = 9 million = 120 total

Weekend #4

3,000+ locations, 15million weekend, 135 total

about 1.5 avg per day for 4 days = 6million = 141 total

 

Weekend #5

new openers - CHIPS, Life, Power Rangers, Slamma Jamma take 10,000+ locations

Get Out will not shed as bad as others.  Likely to be above 2800 locations still, 11million 5th weekend, 152 total.

1 per day at least blasting past 155 total, likely 156.

 

Weekend #6

Openings of Boss Baby and Ghost in the Shell most likely to kill Get Out's high placement.  Both will open in probably 3500 theaters with CHIPS, Life, and Power Rangers under contract for weekend #2.  Likely high per screen average but only 2000 locations if lucky.  7M weekend #6, 163 and passing What Lies Beneath.

 

[Krissykins]

Yeh I think Get Out will definitely be over $130m by next Sunday. Incredible run.

 

 

[CJohn]

Those are some insane Saturday jumps for Kong, Logan and Get Out.

[Ethan Hunt]

Feel much better about Logan for this weekend after that Saturday jump

[baumer]

5 hours ago, Cookson said:

Alright, so RTH is 24.6 and deadline is 23.9... Whose the winner?

 

Do you have to ask?

 

One uses a source.  The other is the source.

[baumer]

5 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Kong at a 60M OW? That's gooooood. That's quite good. It seems that the four quadrant-ness is finally coming into play. Now, I'll play devil's advocate in DHD's and any anti-Kong sentiments' side here and admit that, yes, a 60M OW is still not impressive enough to cover the ridiculous budget. The movie needs about 400M WW to break even, and OS only gives around 40% of its grosses back to studios (China is even less). However, I think that we're all counting on 300M OS at the very least (which is saying something), and w/the 130, now potentially 140M that Kong will do DOM, that'll get it around 450M WW, which is more than fine enough given the position this movie was put in (sandwiched in between two of the most anticipated movies of the year, without that much buzz to go w/it). And that's the difference maker: the fact that, despite the low expectations and supposedly low buzz as well, the movie's still performing very respectably on all fronts. This obviously bodes well for the future of the Kongzilla verse.

 

Logan looking at a 40M hold, DHD strikes again w/the mega lowballing from their original 35M prediction. That would be a 54% 2nd weekend hold, which would be the 2nd best sophomore hold EVER in the X-Men franchise, only behind X2 w/a 53% drop. For an R-rated gritty and sad western ft. Wolverine, that's pretty good. Wouldn't say it's more impressive than Deadpool's 1st hold (55% coming off a 130M+ holiday OW), but Deadpool had zero competition, while Logan is surrounded by it, so it's an unfair comparision.

 

GO is totally doing 20M 3rd weekend. That is happening. Wow. I thought it was gonna be tough to do that on its OW, thinking of it as a Lights Out-type performer, closer to Don't Breathe if WOM really exploded. Unbelievable.

 

So, between a 60M opener, a sub-55% drop for an R-rated X-Men film, and a 20M 3rd weekend hold for an R-rated horror movie, PLUS BATB, Trainspotting, GOTS, Power Rangers, Life, and Boss Baby still to come (not stanning for that though, just hoping for decent numbers, for DreamWorks and animated films' sakes), best March ever?

 

The budget is high but this is going to be a WW hit, they are not just hoping for a good NA run.  And this is setting up the Kong Godzilla film so they can justify the cost of the film because of what they are trying to establish.  The 300 mill price-tag seems high but this seems to be the norm now for films that are trying to accomplish something bigger for the future.  I would imagine this has a chance at 500 WW so it will be just fine.  It's not always about domestic...we know this by know.  The world is a very big place.  

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Those are some insane Saturday jumps for Kong, Logan and Get Out.

 

Yep and it improves Logan hold considerably as it should be. I will still drop over 50% but that's on better side of X Men drops. 52% or so is excellent for that franchise. 

 

GO is Titanic. 

[cookie]

Kong is going to have a decent DOM haul so it'll break even at worst unlike The Great Wall.

[grey ghost]

Kong beat expectations and if it makes over 500 m WW it will be reasonably profitable eventually.

 

The Kong vs Godzilla Cinematic Universe will continue.

 

[Poseidon]

Wow, what a pleasant surprise for Kong. It looked really troubled for a while and manages to pull outone of the biggest march openers of all time. Great story. And Great for WBs Monster Franchise.

[vc2002]

 

40 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

3 hours ago, Cookson said:

Alright, so RTH is 24.6 and deadline is 23.9... Whose the winner?

 

Do you have to ask?

 

One uses a .  The other is the .

 

 

Edited March 12, 2017 by vc2002

[WrathOfHan]

 

Fucking hell, what an absolutely insane 11th hour turn. This makes me curious about how high Alien will go.

[grey ghost]

Logan must hit 200 m.

 

It must.

 

- OCD box office nerd and X-men fan

[grey ghost]

7 hours ago, Truckasaurus said:

Kong really is the true King of all. Amazing Saturday.

 

This March is bananas.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Arlborn]

10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Logan must hit 200 m.

 

It must.

 

- OCD box office nerd and X-men fan

It's hitting 200 m with that Saturday. Hopefully over 210m!

 

I'm happy the Saturday in general has been great for the top3. Bring on Kong vs Godzilla!

[alisson23]

56 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Yep and it improves Logan hold considerably as it should be. I will still drop over 50% but that's on better side of X Men drops. 52% or so is excellent for that franchise. 

 

GO is Titanic. 

Even Captain 2 fell 56.6% on second weekend

[RyneOh1040]

Phenomenal Saturday for all top 3.  To me it signifies that people are excited for movies right now (along with having quality material out) and I just don't think the stage could be any better set for BATB next weekend.  Shits about to get nuts.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Get Out has been out for less than 20 days and will already have an OW share of less than 20%. Weekdays should get it a bit over $120m by next Thursday, and another $15m for the weekend seems to be the goal. It should hit $150m by March 26, and $200m may be a bit of a squeeze, but I definitely think $175-180m+ is doable. 

 

So happy for this movie.