YourMother's Insane Wet, then Spooky, then Festive 2017 Domestic Predictions

[YM!]

11/22/17

(I'm in love with the) Coco

$45M (3 Day)/$70M (5 Day)/$225M (5x 3 Day, 3.21x 5 day)

From the geniuses at Pixar comes their next beloved classic: The Book of Life, I mean Coco. While TGD got destroyed last year in the face of Star Wars, Moana did $250M Domestic despite heavy competition from Trolls, Beasts, Strange, Rogue One and Sing, despite average marketing. Coco should do decent business and do over $200M domestic, but not over $250M due to heavier competition than Moana, dealing with Nordic Smurf, JL, The Star, Jumanji, Ferdinand, and Star Wars.

 

Edited April 9, 2017 by YourMother

[YM!]

12/15/17 The weekend we've been waiting for.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi (For @junkshop36)

Spoiler

$250M/$825M (3.3x)

With the death of Carrie Fisher (may she Rest In Peace) and the power of the Star Wars brand, I have no doubt in my mind, The Last Jedi will be the biggest hit of the year. Although this won't have the same legs as TFA, it's OW will be a monster sized debut.

 

(And his name is...) Ferdinand 

Spoiler

$25M/$150M (6x)

With the power of John Cena along with being based off a beloved book, Ferdinand may be a surprise but for us here on the forums. Alvin 4 did $15M OW in the face of Star Wars without 3D, good reviews and with negative reception and franchise fatigue.

 

[aabattery]

It seems like you're overpredicting pretty much every animated movie. Dunno why you think Ferdinand is going to get good reviews, it looks so, so bad. 

 

Other than that pretty good list.

[Eevin]

Daddy's Home 2 isn't sniffing $100m. There's so much competition plus Bad Moms the week before. I'm seeing half of the original right now.

[YM!]

12/22/17

Jumanji: Welcome to The Jungle

$40M (3 Day)/$90M (7 Day)/$270M (6.75x 3 Day, 3x 7 day)

Thanks to the power of nostalgia, great Cinemacon reception, and all star cast featuring The Rock, Hart, Black and Gillan. Jumanji will be one of the biggest family films of the year.

 

Bastards 

$15M (3 day)/$25M (5 day)/$75M (5x 3 day, 3x 5 day)

This should do decent business for a comedy movie during the holidays.

 

Pitch Perfect 3

$25M (3 Day)/$45M (5x Day)/$120M (4.8x 3 Day, 2.67 5 Day)

Although, I don't see PP3 reaching the heights of PP2, this will do very good business over the holiday season.

 

The Greatest Showman on Earth

$18M (3 Day)/$25M (5 Day)/$100M (5.56x 3 Day, 4x 5 Day)

This should have huge amounts of Oscar buzz and great star power to help it.

 

The Six Billion Dollar Man

$10M (3 Day)/$15M (5 Day)/$55M (5.5x 3 Day, 3.67x 5 Day)

To be honest not expecting much for this movie, nor do I think anyone would really want to see it.

 

 

Downsizing

$8M (3 Day)/$13M (5 Day)/$45M (5.62x 3 Day, 3.46x 5 Day)

Not expecting much for this either.

 

The Current War

$10M (3 Day)/$15M (5 Day)/$50M (5x 3 Day, 3.33x 5 Day)

Assuming this has Oscar buzz, this should create some decent business.

Edited April 9, 2017 by YourMother

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, aabattery said:

It seems like you're overpredicting pretty much every animated movie. Dunno why you think Ferdinand is going to get good reviews, it looks so, so bad. 

 

Other than that pretty good list.

Again, called the title has insane in for a reason.

[aabattery]

Just now, YourMother said:

Again, called the title has insane in for a reason.

 

Yeah, and I'm still allowed to criticise your predictions. 

 

This is America, free speech or something.

[YM!]

Just now, aabattery said:

 

Yeah, and I'm still allowed to criticise your predictions. 

 

This is America, free speech or something.

I thought you lived in New Zealand? Still fair criticism.

[DMan7]

6 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I thought you lived in New Zealand? Still fair criticism.

 

He's referring to where the server is located for boxofficetheory.com which is in america therefore it makes his user account american.

[cax16]

3 hours ago, YourMother said:

11/17/17

Justice League (Paid by Critics) Calling CBM fans, @Fate of the Robertman2, @Brainiac5, @cax16, @grey ghost

$165M/$405M (2.4x)

Another DCEU movie, another internet civil war. Although the DCEU has had a mixed track record so far, MoS failed to do over $300M, Martha Smurf had a great OW but had bad WOM and failed to have both a 2x multiplier and do over $350M domestic, Smurf Sqwad did good business despite the WOM as Martha Smurf, gaining a following of teens, grossing $325M domestic. However with a more fun/crowdpleaser/family friendly looking marketing approach and the box office potential of Foreign Accent Smurfette, even with bad reviews JL should breakout OW, however not expecting much from legs due dealing with Coco next weekend and the combo of Star Wars, Ferdinand and Jumanji should hurt its late legs.

 

 

Wonder

$15M/$60M (4x)

Seems like the type of movie to benefit a lot from holiday buzz.

For being this far out I think that's a good long range guess. I'm pretty sure JL is opening big no matter what ( as long as Foreign Accent Smurfette doesn't have terrible wom), but overall box office I have no clue.

 

Buzz was pretty good from the the first official preview.  It looks to be a lot more friendly for the GA and families as it had some good jokes(imo) and a lot of action. It has pretty good trailer views for being this far out and the official twitter account has like 90k likes and almost 80k retweets on the trailer which is pretty decent. 

 

If JL is as action packed as I hope and the overall storey is just decent, I think it has a very good chance to break out Foreign Accent Smurfette. It's gonna be hard though as Snyder hasn't delivered in most people's minds( not mine, but overall I mean).  And even though Grimdark Smurf has a huge following at some you think peoples patience will probably run out. Time will tell if that's what will happen with JL or maybe Grimdark Smurf just has a large  enough following to basically carry any movie. 

 

I'm hopeful Foreign Accent Smurfette turns out well and gets decent reviews, hopefully then things will start to shift in a more positive direction for the DCEU. 

[YM!]

Just now, cax16 said:

For being this far out I think that's a good long range guess. I'm pretty sure JL is opening big no matter what ( as long as Foreign Accent Smurfette doesn't have terrible wom), but overall box office I have no clue.

 

Buzz was pretty good from the the first official preview.  It looks to be a lot more friendly for the GA and families as it had some good jokes(imo) and a lot of action. It has pretty good trailer views for being this far out and the official twitter account has like 90k likes and almost 80k retweets on the trailer which is pretty decent. 

 

If JL is as action packed as I hope and the overall storey is just decent, I think it has a very good chance to break out Foreign Accent Smurfette. It's gonna be hard though as Snyder hasn't delivered in most people's minds( not mine, but overall I mean).  And even though Grimdark Smurf has a huge following at some you think peoples patience will probably run out. Time will tell if that's what will happen with JL or maybe Grimdark Smurf just has a large  enough following to basically carry any movie. 

 

I'm hopeful Foreign Accent Smurfette turns out well and gets decent reviews, hopefully then things will start to shift in a more positive direction for the DCEU. 

I agree with everything you said but doing some analysis, although I think JL will be big ($350M+), the new trailer and the new SMH trailer are almost identical in views, henceforth not going to go too crazy for predicting. Also I took into account the odds of it being hurt by other family films.

[cax16]

9 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I agree with everything you said but doing some analysis, although I think JL will be big ($350M+), the new trailer and the new SMH trailer are almost identical in views, henceforth not going to go too crazy for predicting. Also I took into account the odds of it being hurt by other family films.

Ya Spider-Emo Smurf is kind of a mystery at this point. It's easy to try and compare it to previous (Spider-Emo Smurf) movies but this is the first Spider-Emo Smurf solo movie in the mcu and it has Man-child Smurf in it. It's going to be big, how big we don't know yet.

 

You have to remember as well that Spider-Emo Smurf is the most popular superhero in the world, by a long shot. If the movie is very well received it could be huge, especially overseas. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BadAtGender]

Dude, stop smurfing hiding your predictions under 8 layers of spoiler tags.

[YM!]

Films over $200M+ Domestic (plus worldwide for fun )Prediction

15.) The Dark Tower $205M ($500M)

14.) Cars 3 $210M ($570M)

13.) Coco $230M ($550M)

13.) Logan $230M ($600M)

12.) Apes $240M ($650M)

11.) Pirates $240M ($830M)

10.) Wonder Woman $255M ($700M)

9.) Jumanji $270M ($600M)

8.) Fate of the Furious $300M ($1.3B)

7.) Thor: Rangarök $312M ($850M)

6.) Despicable M3 $325M ($1.03B)

5.) Spider-Man Homecoming $325M ($1B)

4.) Guardians of The Galaxy Volume 2 $350M ($1.05B)

3.) Justice League $405M ($1B)

2.) Beauty and The Beast $505M ($1.25B)

1.) The Last Jedi $825M ($2.1B WW)

Edited April 10, 2017 by YourMother

[the beast]

Top 10 Movies Domestic 

1. The Last Jedi -  $215M/$800M

2. BATB - $175M/$505M

3. GOTG Vol 2 - $160M/$405M

4. Spiderman: Homecoming - $135M/$360M

5. Justice League - $170M/$350M

6. DM3 - $95M/$325M

7. FF8 - $120M/$290M

8. Thor: Ragnarok - $110M/$275M

9. War Of The Planet Of The Apes - $90M/$270M

10. WW - $105M/$260M

 

[DAJK]

Good list!

[YM!]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

Good list!

Thank you. 

[GiantCALBears]

Not trying to hijack this thread but isn't this more of a speakeasy thread? Are we now allowing members to do this in the main forum? @Tele Came Back? 

[YM!]

Estimated at $145.05M

On 4/7/2017 at 6:39 PM, YourMother said:

Following in the vain of @WrathOfHan and to a lesser extent @Ethan Hunt's procrastinated 2017 predictions, I decided to do one of my own originally just for Summer of 2017 domestic, but due to break giving you guys a treat and putting my predictions in for Fall and Winter!

 

 

5/5/17: Guardians of The Galaxy Volume 2 (Starring Star-Munch)

$145M OW/$350M Domestic (2.41x) 

As usual of the start of Summer, kids are out of school, beaches are full of people, Cheap TV Smurf releases a movie meanwhile Disney signs checks for good reviews. This time, without Big Daddy Downey as Man-child Smurf. Although trailer views have been lacking compared to other movies such as JL, SMH, Alien, and IT, and arguably hype has been lackluster, Disney/Cheap TV Smurf turns it around mid April as usual, and while I don't see $400M+ domestic, I see a slight increase thanks to it being of the MCU's most beloved titles, and the fact that may play out as more of a family film OW/presales. Unlike AOU, this seems likely for positive reviews and unlike CW you don't need to know 6-7 films prior to understand. The only two sources currently tracking is pro.Boxoffice.com, which is predicting $160M/$400M and @EmpireCity, who was seen good presales for it.

Spot on for OW.

Edited May 7, 2017 by YourMother

[YM!]

On 4/7/2017 at 6:58 PM, YourMother said:

5/12/17:

King Arthur: Legend of The Sword (by GOD Ritchie)

$27M/$75M (2.75x)

To be honest, although this has decent trailer views, this looks like something that may be forgotten OW but have great legs for a movie like this and could draw out some older audiences, like a bigger The Man From U.N.C.L.E.

 

Lowriders

$5M/$16M (3.2x)

This is not only I haven't heard about, but found out about it's existence today. Predicting pretty low numbers for this but good legs.

 

Snatched

$18M/$60M (3.33x)

2017 has been a pretty rough month for non animated comedies, however with Amy Schumer and a good release date (Mother's Day Weekend) along with a lack of female driven comedies this should do solid business. 

Very close for Snatched, way off for Arthur and Lowriders.