The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Deep Wang]

13 minutes ago, SoSaysI said:

Ok, but how is comparing Rogue One's presales to other franchises relevant at all to a discussion of how much above Rogue One's presales TLJ's should be for us to feel good about $200M. 

 

Okay, I guess I still don't understand why you're confused so let me try to explain a little better.

 

@grim22 Posted this a while back:

 

Civil War had the highest presales among CBMs. Let’s use it as a baseline and say it had 10M to make things easier for baselining. If Civil War final presales was 10M, then:

- BvS was 9.2M($166m)

- Guardians 2 was 8.3M($146m)

- Suicide Squad was 7.2M($133m)

- SMH was 6.4M($117m)

- WW was 5.6M($103m)

- Deadpool was 4.5M($132m)

 

Here, as you can see, with the exception of Deadpool, they are all in order of OW as well as presales.  It's obviously not foolproof, there are outliers(BR 2049 and JL, for instance) and sometimes DW is an idiot, but it is remarkably consistent.   

 

So, bringing us back to Rogue One and The Last Jedi.  We only have the one set of data for the Christmas holidays and that's Rogue One.  Which had 50% more presales that CW/BATB, yet opened $20m less.  As I explained before, this is most likely due to the holidays.  Why might you ask, well, that's because when most movies are released for presale, theaters only put up one weeks worth of showtimes.  Star Wars, on the other hand, has had 2-3 weeks full schedule up from the word go, so that if you wanted to preorder tickets for Christmas or New Years, you totally can.  This effect was noticed when Rogue One didn't get the normal Mon/Tues boost that other movies do when their full schedule is published the week before.

 

This skews the results we get in a way that no other movie does.  So how far ahead does it need to be to feel comfortable about $200m?  To me it's double Rogue One, because, while it's ahead of the pace right now, we have no idea how much is for OW and how much is for the rest of the holiday season.  If we had the data for TFA, it might also be easier to pinpoint, but we don't.  

 

Maybe I'm stupid for comparing Star Wars to comic book movies, but for mega openers, I think it's the only thing we have to compare it with.  Maybe if Han Solo does open in May it will fall more in line with everything else?

 

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

 

Okay, I guess I still don't understand why you're confused so let me try to explain a little better.

 

@grim22 Posted this a while back:

 

Civil War had the highest presales among CBMs. Let’s use it as a baseline and say it had 10M to make things easier for baselining. If Civil War final presales was 10M, then:

- BvS was 9.2M($166m)

- Guardians 2 was 8.3M($146m)

- Suicide Squad was 7.2M($133m)

- SMH was 6.4M($117m)

- WW was 5.6M($103m)

- Deadpool was 4.5M($132m)

 

Here, as you can see, with the exception of Deadpool, they are all in order of OW as well as presales.  It's obviously not foolproof, there are outliers(BR 2049 and JL, for instance) and sometimes DW is an idiot, but it is remarkably consistent.   

 

Beg to differ: DW is never an idiot. 

[WrathOfHan]

Disney Springs just added another screen for The Disaster Artist tonight  

 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

 

Okay, I guess I still don't understand why you're confused so let me try to explain a little better.

 

@grim22 Posted this a while back:

 

Civil War had the highest presales among CBMs. Let’s use it as a baseline and say it had 10M to make things easier for baselining. If Civil War final presales was 10M, then:

- BvS was 9.2M($166m)

- Guardians 2 was 8.3M($146m)

- Suicide Squad was 7.2M($133m)

- SMH was 6.4M($117m)

- WW was 5.6M($103m)

- Deadpool was 4.5M($132m)

 

Here, as you can see, with the exception of Deadpool, they are all in order of OW as well as presales.  It's obviously not foolproof, there are outliers(BR 2049 and JL, for instance) and sometimes DW is an idiot, but it is remarkably consistent.   

 

So, bringing us back to Rogue One and The Last Jedi.  We only have the one set of data for the Christmas holidays and that's Rogue One.  Which had 50% more presales that CW/BATB, yet opened $20m less.  As I explained before, this is most likely due to the holidays.  Why might you ask, well, that's because when most movies are released for presale, theaters only put up one weeks worth of showtimes.  Star Wars, on the other hand, has had 2-3 weeks full schedule up from the word go, so that if you wanted to preorder tickets for Christmas or New Years, you totally can.  This effect was noticed when Rogue One didn't get the normal Mon/Tues boost that other movies do when their full schedule is published the week before.

 

This skews the results we get in a way that no other movie does.  So how far ahead does it need to be to feel comfortable about $200m?  To me it's double Rogue One, because, while it's ahead of the pace right now, we have no idea how much is for OW and how much is for the rest of the holiday season.  If we had the data for TFA, it might also be easier to pinpoint, but we don't.  

 

Maybe I'm stupid for comparing Star Wars to comic book movies, but for mega openers, I think it's the only thing we have to compare it with.  Maybe if Han Solo does open in May it will fall more in line with everything else?

 

Considering RO also was a holiday release why do you think SW8 presales need to be as much as 100% higher for ow to be 29% higher/hit 200m.

[Deep Wang]

13 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Considering RO also was a holiday release why do you think SW8 presales need to be as much as 100% higher for ow to be 29% higher/hit 200m.

I don't know, probably just my insecurities, lol.  I mean I would totally feel comfortable locking in $200m+ if this thing does 100% of Rogue Ones, presales.  Does that mean that's what it has to hit?  No, just the number I want to see. 

[Deep Wang]

17 minutes ago, Lor San Tele said:

 

Beg to differ: DW is never an idiot. 

Please!  Remember when we found out he had been giving us wrong numbers for a bunch of stuff in the spring?  Wasted a bunch of good comps!

[That One Girl]

5 minutes ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

Please!  Remember when we found out he had been giving us wrong numbers for a bunch of stuff in the spring?  Wasted a bunch of good comps!

 

I agree, Deep Wang is a very crooked and unreliable source.  Don’t trust him.

[Rorschach]

My Local Theater:

 

Coco- 13 (regular), 3 (IMAX 2D), 16 total

Justice League- 11 (regular), 2 (IMAX 2D), 13 total

Thor: Ragnarok- 7

The Star- 6

The Disaster Artist- 5 (debut)

Just Getting Started- 5 (debut)

A Bad Moms Christmas- 5

Daddy's Home 2- 5

Lady Bird- 5

The Man Who Invented Christmas- 5

Murder on the Orient Express- 5

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri- 5

Wonder- 4

 

Leaving: Roman J. Israel, Esq.

[Eric Prime]

View Index

Next Year > Next Week >>

Rank LW Title Distributor Theater Count Change % Change Est. Screens Change Est. Shows Change Week # > NEW RELEASES 8 - Just Getting Started Broad Green Pictures 2,146 - - - - - - 1 38 - I, Tonya Neon 4 - - - - - - 1 > EXPANDING 2 3 Wonder Lionsgate 3,519 +70 +2.0% - - - - 4 7 7 The Star Sony / Columbia 2,976 +154 +5.5% - - - - 4 10 10 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Fox Searchlight 1,620 +190 +13.3% - - - - 5 11 11 Lady Bird A24 1,557 +363 +30.4% - - - - 6 13 50 The Disaster Artist A24 840 +821 +4,321.1% - - - - 2 14 12 The Man Who Invented Christmas Bleecker Street 720 +46 +6.8% - - - - 3 15 19 The Mountain Between Us Fox 535 +368 +220.4% - - - - 10 31 72 Darkest Hour Focus Features 53 +49 +1,225.0% - - - - 3 32 86 The Shape of Water Fox Searchlight 41 +39 +1,950.0% - - - - 2 36 71 Call Me by Your Name Sony Classics 9 +5 +125.0% - - - - 3 40 103 Tribes of Palos Verdes IFC 4 +3 +300.0% - - - - 2 > NO CHANGE 22 26 The Foreigner STX Entertainment 130 - - - - - - 9 26 - Nocturama Grasshopper Film 90 - - - - - - 9 37 65 The Stray Purdie Distribution 6 - - - - - - 10 41 - Brave New Jersey Gravitas Ventures 3 - - - - - - 2 > DECLINING 1 1 Coco Buena Vista 3,748 -239 -6.0% - - - - 3 3 2 Justice League Warner Bros. 3,428 -392 -10.3% - - - - 4 4 4 Daddy's Home 2 Paramount 3,263 -140 -4.1% - - - - 5 5 5 Murder on the Orient Express (2017) Fox 3,089 -112 -3.5% - - - - 5 6 6 Thor: Ragnarok Buena Vista 3,047 -101 -3.2% - - - - 6 9 8 A Bad Moms Christmas STX Entertainment 2,124 -127 -5.6% - - - - 6 12 9 Roman J. Israel, Esq. Sony / Columbia 1,453 -216 -12.9% - - - - 4 16 14 Blade Runner 2049 Warner Bros. 366 -68 -15.7% - - - - 10 17 13 Marshall Open Road Films 341 -310 -47.6% - - - - 9 18 15 Jigsaw Lionsgate 257 -44 -14.6% - - - - 7 19 17 Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween Lionsgate 210 -2 -0.9% - - - - 8 20 16 It Warner Bros. (New Line) 208 -23 -10.0% - - - - 14 21 24 Despicable Me 3 Universal 142 -10 -6.6% - - - - 24 23 20 Geostorm Warner Bros. 107 -58 -35.2% - - - - 8 24 25 Victoria and Abdul Focus Features 103 -28 -21.4% - - - - 12 25 28 The Florida Project A24 101 -19 -15.8% - - - - 10 27 31 Happy Death Day Universal 88 -12 -12.0% - - - - 9 28 30 Last Flag Flying Lionsgate 85 -25 -22.7% - - - - 6 29 35 Titanic (20th Anniversary) Paramount 75 -12 -13.8% - - - - 2 30 32 American Made Universal 74 -19 -20.4% - - - - 11 33 39 The Killing of a Sacred Deer A24 31 -10 -24.4% - - - - 8 34 43 Same Kind of Different as Me Pure Flix 20 -10 -33.3% - - - - 8 35 42 Wonderstruck Roadside Attractions 13 -19 -59.4% - - - - 8 39 49 A Question Of Faith Pure Flix 4 -14 -77.8% - - - - 11

 

 

Why is JGS in 2,100+ theaters  And why did MBU gain back so many theaters?

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

View Index

Next Year > Next Week >>

Rank LW Title Distributor Theater Count Change % Change Est. Screens Change Est. Shows Change Week # > NEW RELEASES 8 - Just Getting Started Broad Green Pictures 2,146 - - - - - - 1 38 - I, Tonya Neon 4 - - - - - - 1 > EXPANDING 2 3 Wonder Lionsgate 3,519 +70 +2.0% - - - - 4 7 7 The Star Sony / Columbia 2,976 +154 +5.5% - - - - 4 10 10 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Fox Searchlight 1,620 +190 +13.3% - - - - 5 11 11 Lady Bird A24 1,557 +363 +30.4% - - - - 6 13 50 The Disaster Artist A24 840 +821 +4,321.1% - - - - 2 14 12 The Man Who Invented Christmas Bleecker Street 720 +46 +6.8% - - - - 3 15 19 The Mountain Between Us Fox 535 +368 +220.4% - - - - 10 31 72 Darkest Hour Focus Features 53 +49 +1,225.0% - - - - 3 32 86 The Shape of Water Fox Searchlight 41 +39 +1,950.0% - - - - 2 36 71 Call Me by Your Name Sony Classics 9 +5 +125.0% - - - - 3 40 103 Tribes of Palos Verdes IFC 4 +3 +300.0% - - - - 2 > NO CHANGE 22 26 The Foreigner STX Entertainment 130 - - - - - - 9 26 - Nocturama Grasshopper Film 90 - - - - - - 9 37 65 The Stray Purdie Distribution 6 - - - - - - 10 41 - Brave New Jersey Gravitas Ventures 3 - - - - - - 2 > DECLINING 1 1 Coco Buena Vista 3,748 -239 -6.0% - - - - 3 3 2 Justice League Warner Bros. 3,428 -392 -10.3% - - - - 4 4 4 Daddy's Home 2 Paramount 3,263 -140 -4.1% - - - - 5 5 5 Murder on the Orient Express (2017) Fox 3,089 -112 -3.5% - - - - 5 6 6 Thor: Ragnarok Buena Vista 3,047 -101 -3.2% - - - - 6 9 8 A Bad Moms Christmas STX Entertainment 2,124 -127 -5.6% - - - - 6 12 9 Roman J. Israel, Esq. Sony / Columbia 1,453 -216 -12.9% - - - - 4 16 14 Blade Runner 2049 Warner Bros. 366 -68 -15.7% - - - - 10 17 13 Marshall Open Road Films 341 -310 -47.6% - - - - 9 18 15 Jigsaw Lionsgate 257 -44 -14.6% - - - - 7 19 17 Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween Lionsgate 210 -2 -0.9% - - - - 8 20 16 It Warner Bros. (New Line) 208 -23 -10.0% - - - - 14 21 24 Despicable Me 3 Universal 142 -10 -6.6% - - - - 24 23 20 Geostorm Warner Bros. 107 -58 -35.2% - - - - 8 24 25 Victoria and Abdul Focus Features 103 -28 -21.4% - - - - 12 25 28 The Florida Project A24 101 -19 -15.8% - - - - 10 27 31 Happy Death Day Universal 88 -12 -12.0% - - - - 9 28 30 Last Flag Flying Lionsgate 85 -25 -22.7% - - - - 6 29 35 Titanic (20th Anniversary) Paramount 75 -12 -13.8% - - - - 2 30 32 American Made Universal 74 -19 -20.4% - - - - 11 33 39 The Killing of a Sacred Deer A24 31 -10 -24.4% - - - - 8 34 43 Same Kind of Different as Me Pure Flix 20 -10 -33.3% - - - - 8 35 42 Wonderstruck Roadside Attractions 13 -19 -59.4% - - - - 8 39 49 A Question Of Faith Pure Flix 4 -14 -77.8% - - - - 11

 

 

Why is JGS in 2,100+ theaters  And why did MBU gain back so many theaters?

The Star gets more theaters!:)  $50M, here we come (gotta try to salvage some non-suckitude...at least it's blown through that Mr Fox club:)...

[WrathOfHan]

How tomorrow looks at my theater:

 

Spoiler

Jumanji Prime:

 

7:00: 83/113

 

JGS:

 

11:30: 32/113

2:00: 10/113

4:30: 0/113

8:10: 0/67

10:00: 0/113

 

OE:

 

10:25: 18/60

1:10: 0/60

4:05: 0/60

6:50: 0/60

9:35: 0/60

 

Wonder:

 

1:50: 13/78

4:40: 0/78

7:20: 0/78

10:05: 0/78

 

Lady Bird:

 

10:05: 4/63

12:35: 0/63

3:05: 0/63

5:35: 0/63

8:05: 0/63

10:30: 0/63

 

Coco:

 

10:00: 0/67

11:30 3D: 0/78

12:45: 0/124

3:15: 3/124

4:55 3D: 0/78

5:45: 0/124

8:15: 0/124

10:45: 0/124

 

JL:

 

10:00: 1/78

1:00: 0/78

2:05 3D: 0/78

4:00: 0/78

7:00: 2/78

7:45 3D: 0/78

10:00: 0/78

 

Jumanji Prime: 83/113

JGS: 42/519

OE: 18/300 (group buyout happened here)

Wonder: 13/312 (guessing the morning show was a total group buyout)

Lady Bird: 6/378

Coco: 3/843

JL: 3/546

Thor, DH2, 3B, Bad Moms, The Star, and MBU have sold nothing.

 

Just Getting Started is...... performing how I expected it to here  

[filmlover]

Next week:

 

The Last Jedi: 4,100 (close to The Force Awakens which opened in 4,134)

Ferdinand: 3,600

[JonathanLB]

3 hours ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

 

Okay, I guess I still don't understand why you're confused so let me try to explain a little better.

 

@grim22 Posted this a while back:

 

Civil War had the highest presales among CBMs. Let’s use it as a baseline and say it had 10M to make things easier for baselining. If Civil War final presales was 10M, then:

- BvS was 9.2M($166m)

- Guardians 2 was 8.3M($146m)

- Suicide Squad was 7.2M($133m)

- SMH was 6.4M($117m)

- WW was 5.6M($103m)

- Deadpool was 4.5M($132m)

 

Here, as you can see, with the exception of Deadpool, they are all in order of OW as well as presales.  It's obviously not foolproof, there are outliers(BR 2049 and JL, for instance) and sometimes DW is an idiot, but it is remarkably consistent.   

 

So, bringing us back to Rogue One and The Last Jedi.  We only have the one set of data for the Christmas holidays and that's Rogue One.  Which had 50% more presales that CW/BATB, yet opened $20m less.  As I explained before, this is most likely due to the holidays.  Why might you ask, well, that's because when most movies are released for presale, theaters only put up one weeks worth of showtimes.  Star Wars, on the other hand, has had 2-3 weeks full schedule up from the word go, so that if you wanted to preorder tickets for Christmas or New Years, you totally can.  This effect was noticed when Rogue One didn't get the normal Mon/Tues boost that other movies do when their full schedule is published the week before.

 

This skews the results we get in a way that no other movie does.  So how far ahead does it need to be to feel comfortable about $200m?  To me it's double Rogue One, because, while it's ahead of the pace right now, we have no idea how much is for OW and how much is for the rest of the holiday season.  If we had the data for TFA, it might also be easier to pinpoint, but we don't.  

 

Maybe I'm stupid for comparing Star Wars to comic book movies, but for mega openers, I think it's the only thing we have to compare it with.  Maybe if Han Solo does open in May it will fall more in line with everything else?

 

I get what you’re saying and whatnot and I am not trying to crap all over it but that’s simply not true. No theater in my city had any showtimes up for TLJ beyond the first week. I checked just 3 days ago, I can check again now but last I saw you couldn’t buy an Xmas ticket to TLJ even if you wanted to. I recall with TFA it was different but this time around I don’t think most markets are even selling Xmas week tickets yet. Unless Portland is just the only city in the whole US that isn’t despite having Regal and Cinemark theaters. Doesn’t seem likely.

 

Unrelated note, but I got sent the screener for Downsizing today that comes out in a few weeks. I really enjoyed it! Often very funny and a highly original concept. The movie is all over the place and I admit that may turn some people off but for me I enjoyed it a lot. Alexander Payne is a very good director. I personally don’t like Sideways much at all, I think it’s his worst film, but it’s not a bad movie by any means I just felt it was overrated. For me a C+ level film, and others think it’s an A. My dad loves it lol

 

EDIT: NOPE you can’t buy tickets to TLJ still. They’re selling tickets for movies opening that weekend already on Fandango like Molly’s Game but no TLJ.

Edited December 8, 2017 by JonathanLB

[Deep Wang]

2 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I get what you’re saying and whatnot and I am not trying to crap all over it but that’s simply not true. No theater in my city had any showtimes up for TLJ beyond the first week. I checked just 3 days ago, I can check again now but last I saw you couldn’t buy an Xmas ticket to TLJ even if you wanted to. I recall with TFA it was different but this time around I don’t think most markets are even selling Xmas week tickets yet. Unless Portland is just the only city in the whole US that isn’t despite having Regal and Cinemark theaters. Doesn’t seem likely.

https://www.amctheatres.com/movie-theatres/houston/amc-katy-mills-20/showtimes/all/2017-12-25/amc-katy-mills-20/all

https://www.amctheatres.com/movie-theatres/houston/amc-katy-mills-20/showtimes/all/2017-12-25/amc-gulf-pointe-30/all

https://www.amctheatres.com/movie-theatres/houston/amc-katy-mills-20/showtimes/all/2017-12-25/amc-empire-25/all

 

https://www.fandango.com/houston_tx_movietimes?date=2017-12-25

https://www.fandango.com/amc-dine-in-disney-springstm-24-AABNU/theater-page?date=2017-12-25

https://www.fandango.com/chicago_il_movietimes?date=2017-12-25

[JonathanLB]

That’s nice but nowhere in Portland is that true and I don’t assume it’s the only city where you are restricted currently to the first week. If so then it’s another reason Portland sucks

[Deja23]

The theaters around me in Indiana and those in my hometown in NY have only put up showtimes till 12/21. So yeah, only 1 week so far. Maybe it’s different in major cities.

 

Edit: It looks like it’s specific to AMC theaters. The Regal and Cinemark here are only for 1 week. 

Edited December 8, 2017 by Deja23

[Deep Wang]

Sucks for you guys.

[JMorphin]

I agree about the holidays spreading out the pre-sales, since the business is definitely spread out all the way through New Year's.  Austin has theaters selling tickets through Christmas Day for now.  I want 50% more than RO  

[The Panda]

TLJ is at 33 / 384 in the DFW area for Thursday night.

 

Around 150 of those theaters are around 85-90%+ capacity.

 

 

[JonathanLB]

I watched both I, Tonya and Downsizing on screeners now today. I really liked I, Tonya too. Great film. Often very funny too, though messed up the whole thing!

 

So many screeners... so little time.