The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Biggestgeekever]

4 hours ago, MrPink said:

 

Supposedly it might get IMAX. This real Hollywood movie

See Dave Franco's ridiculously shitty looking fake beard on the biggest screen possible.

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, Biggestgeekever said:

See Dave Franco's ridiculously shitty looking fake beard on the biggest screen possible.

 

Dude.

 

Seeing the beard + the red sleeveless shirt + Epic for the first time had me in stitches. It was too much of an audio-visual experience for me to take at that moment.

 

 

Edited December 7, 2017 by MrPink

[FlashMaster659]

TLJ - 46.5%

Coco - 9%

Wonder - 4.7%

TDA - 4.2%

JL - 3.9%

 

TLJ surging fast again.

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. SW

2. SW 3D

3. Coco

4. Disaster Artist

5. SW IMAX 3D

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pulse:

 

1. SW

2. SW 3D

3. Coco

4. Disaster Artist

5. SW IMAX 3D

[aabattery]

TFA same number of days out:

 

MT (Morning update)

 

Star Wars - 74%

Hunger Games - 4%

In The Heart Of The Sea - 3%

Creed - 2%

Good Dinosaur - 2%

 

MT (later update)

 

Star Wars - 64%

In The Heart Of The Sea - 6%

Hunger Games - 4%

Creed - 3%

Spotlight - 3%

 

Went down to the low 50's at the end of this day apparently.

[Eric the IF]

http://deadline.com/2017/12/the-last-jedi-jumanji-christmas-box-office-millennials-fandango-1202221945/

 

Quote

Millennials, that largely hard-to-crack demo that studios fear slips from their fingers in exchange for older males, plan to see at least two movies over the year-end holiday stretch, potentially even four movies.

 

 

Such are the results from a recent Fandango poll of 1,500 moviegoers between the ages of 18 and 34, with Disney’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Fox Searchlight’s The Shape of Water and A24’s The Disaster Artist among some of their must-see movies. That demo reps 41% of Fandango’s digital audience, which translates into 22 million consumers per ComScore.

In sum, 86% of all millennials plan to see two or more movies over the holidays, while 34% anticipate seeing four or more.

 

The top must-see movies among millennials over the holiday season per those polled by Fandango:

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
3. Pitch Perfect 3
4. The Greatest Showman
5. Downsizing

Millennials’ top five picks for current indie movies are:

1. The Shape of Water
2. The Disaster Artist      
3. Lady Bird
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. I, Tonya

 

 

[grim22]

1 hour ago, ReyReyBattery said:

TFA same number of days out:

 

MT (Morning update)

 

Star Wars - 74%

Hunger Games - 4%

In The Heart Of The Sea - 3%

Creed - 2%

Good Dinosaur - 2%

 

MT (later update)

 

Star Wars - 64%

In The Heart Of The Sea - 6%

Hunger Games - 4%

Creed - 3%

Spotlight - 3%

 

Went down to the low 50's at the end of this day apparently.

Wrong day. You are looking at a Friday instead of a Thursday

[aabattery]

Just now, grim22 said:

Wrong day. You are looking at a Friday instead of a Thursday

 

Knew I'd get it wrong at some point (or maybe I've been getting it wrong the whole time 🤔).

 

Timezones are hard.

[ZeeSoh]

Next weekend's estimated location count for Star Wars: The Last Jedi is 4,100.#StarWars #TheLastJedi

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) December 7, 2017

[a2k]

Sorry for vague question: SW8 needs to open 29% over RO to crack 200m ow. Is tracking showing that?

[SoSaysI]

17 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Sorry for vague question: SW8 needs to open 29% over RO to crack 200m ow. Is tracking showing that?

Pre-sales were already 15% higher than RO's final total as of Monday so I would be pretty surprised if pre-sales don't reflect at least 29% greater opening (I suspect they will be quite a bit higher than that).

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

Sorry for vague question: SW8 needs to open 29% over RO to crack 200m ow. 

Unfortunately, we have no idea how much higher TLJ needs to be to open to $200m+. 

 

I believe Rogue One had higher presales than anything we'd seen by about 50%(BatB, CA), yet opened lower than those.   The holidays really skew the numbers since people are buying tickets for the entire holiday.  Yes, there are a very larger proportion of tickets going to the OW, but I think we had a report prior(Fandango, maybe) to TFA, that said Christmas Day was one of the biggest days for presales pre-release. 

 

In my opinion, I think for us to comfortably look towards a $200m OW, it needs to be AT LEAST 75-80% higher. Preferably even higher than that, like 100%. 

[JonathanLB]

It should easily clear $200M, I think it’s tracking more like $225M personally. There would also have been at least 10% ticket price inflation at most venues since 2015. Where I live IMAX tickets were $18 for TFA and are $19.95 now, so above a 10% increase. Regular tickets at most theaters are up similarly.

 

Then you have fan events for Thursday padding the total a lot as there are thousands upon thousands of them. You don’t need to come anywhere near matching TFA attendance to reach near TFA dollars. It could be 25% off TFA in attendance and I think it would be 10% off in dollars.

[Deep Wang]

4 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

It should easily clear $200M, I think it’s tracking more like $225M personally. There would also have been at least 10% ticket price inflation at most venues since 2015. Where I live IMAX tickets were $18 for TFA and are $19.95 now, so above a 10% increase. Regular tickets at most theaters are up similarly.

 

Then you have fan events for Thursday padding the total a lot as there are thousands upon thousands of them. You don’t need to come anywhere near matching TFA attendance to reach near TFA dollars. It could be 25% off TFA in attendance and I think it would be 10% off in dollars.

 

@grim22 Did your last DW update include or exclude fan event numbers into the %?

[SoSaysI]

44 minutes ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

Unfortunately, we have no idea how much higher TLJ needs to be to open to $200m+. 

 

I believe Rogue One had higher presales than anything we'd seen by about 50%(BatB, CA), yet opened lower than those.   The holidays really skew the numbers since people are buying tickets for the entire holiday.  Yes, there are a very larger proportion of tickets going to the OW, but I think we had a report prior(Fandango, maybe) to TFA, that said Christmas Day was one of the biggest days for presales pre-release. 

 

In my opinion, I think for us to comfortably look towards a $200m OW, it needs to be AT LEAST 75-80% higher. Preferably even higher than that, like 100%. 

Why would it have to have sales that much higher?  We are comparing a Star Wars movie to a Star Wars movie that are opening at the same time of the year and roughly the same amount before Christmas.

[Deep Wang]

19 minutes ago, SoSaysI said:

Why would it have to have sales that much higher?  We are comparing a Star Wars movie to a Star Wars movie that are opening at the same time of the year and roughly the same amount before Christmas.

 

Huh?  My post was me literally explaining why I think it's going to need a lot more presales.  

[SoSaysI]

3 minutes ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

 

Huh?  My post was me literally explaining why I think it's going to need a lot more presales.  

Ok, but how is comparing Rogue One's presales to other franchises relevant at all to a discussion of how much above Rogue One's presales TLJ's should be for us to feel good about $200M. 

[Plain Old Tele]

34 minutes ago, Darth Boh-ne'er said:

 

@grim22 Did your last DW update include or exclude fan event numbers into the %?

 

Theyre all numbers combined (regular shows, fan event, and marathons).

[Shawn Robbins]

3 hours ago, a2knet said:

Sorry for vague question: SW8 needs to open 29% over RO to crack 200m ow. Is tracking showing that?

If you mean traditional tracking, it's definitely on the table. TLJ's awareness and first choice numbers are far above RO's, while "definite interest" is identical at the same point.