The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Barnack]

13 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I really liked I, Tonya too.

Nice to see that you can take break of independents movies are all shit.

[JonathanLB]

Haha every year there are many good ones. Not a majority, but many... if you miss them all, you’ll miss some gems, which is a shame. 

[Porthos]

Already posted this in the mothership thread, but I think it deserves a xpost with this one for those who aren't reading it.  Going forward, I think I'll post the detailed one in this thread and leave the summary mini-report in the TLJ main thread.

 

======

 

GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT REPORT:  T-7days

 

Previews: 30/132 (+1/+0) [R1: 6/106 showings]

(Includes Double Feature & Opening Night Fan Event)

 

2D: 26/88 (+0/+0) [R1: 4/70]

3D: 4/44 (+1/0)   [R1: 2/36]

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 81 showings [R1: 46 showings]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

11 [R1: 4]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

6 [R1: 2]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or the equivalent amount of seats)

28 [R1:20]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

2 [R1: 0]

 

NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

 

===

 

A lot of those sellouts ARE from smaller theaters, yes.  But those same theaters weren't quite sold out for the same time for Rogue One. But even taking smaller theaters into account there is an across the board increase over R1.  

 

And we haven't even hit the last week of sales yet.

 

FTR: Rogue One topped out at 35 sellouts out of 144 showings.  So TLJ is already almost at that level one week out.

[WrathOfHan]

Friday theater update:

Spoiler

 

Jumanji Prime:

 

7:00: 83/113

 

JGS:

 

11:30: 38/113

2:00: 14/113

4:30: 12/113

8:10: 0/67

10:00: 0/113

 

OE:

 

10:25: 18/60

1:10: 2/60

4:05: 0/60

6:50: 0/60

9:35: 0/60

 

Wonder:

 

1:50: 13/78

4:40: 3/78

7:20: 0/78

10:05: 0/78

 

Lady Bird:

 

10:05: 6/63

12:35: 3/63

3:05: 0/63

5:35: 0/63

8:05: 2/63

10:30: 0/63

 

Coco:

 

10:00: 4/67

11:30 3D: 0/78

12:45: 0/124

3:15: 3/124

4:55 3D: 0/78

5:45: 0/124

8:15: 0/124

10:45: 0/124

 

JL:

 

10:00: 1/78

1:00: 2/78

2:05 3D: 0/78

4:00: 0/78

7:00: 2/78

7:45 3D: 0/78

10:00: 0/78

 

Thor: 

 

10:45: 4/78

1:45 3D: 0/78

4:45: 0/78

7:45 3D: 0/78

10:45: 0/78

 

 

Jumanji Prime: 83/113

JGS: 64/519 (Up 22)

OE: 20/300 (Up 2)

Wonder: 16/312 (Up 3)

Lady Bird: 11/378 (Up 5)

Coco: 7/843 (Up 4)

JL: 5/546 (Up 2)

Thor: 4/390 (Up 4)

DH2, 3B, Bad Moms, The Star, and MBU have sold nothing.

 

Just Getting Started is on par with AA (14.8M) and 133% of AM (22.3M). This is going to be a Derby killer with how low some people went  

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

9 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Friday theater update:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Jumanji Prime:

 

7:00: 83/113

 

JGS:

 

11:30: 38/113

2:00: 14/113

4:30: 12/113

8:10: 0/67

10:00: 0/113

 

OE:

 

10:25: 18/60

1:10: 2/60

4:05: 0/60

6:50: 0/60

9:35: 0/60

 

Wonder:

 

1:50: 13/78

4:40: 3/78

7:20: 0/78

10:05: 0/78

 

Lady Bird:

 

10:05: 6/63

12:35: 3/63

3:05: 0/63

5:35: 0/63

8:05: 2/63

10:30: 0/63

 

Coco:

 

10:00: 4/67

11:30 3D: 0/78

12:45: 0/124

3:15: 3/124

4:55 3D: 0/78

5:45: 0/124

8:15: 0/124

10:45: 0/124

 

JL:

 

10:00: 1/78

1:00: 2/78

2:05 3D: 0/78

4:00: 0/78

7:00: 2/78

7:45 3D: 0/78

10:00: 0/78

 

Thor: 

 

10:45: 4/78

1:45 3D: 0/78

4:45: 0/78

7:45 3D: 0/78

10:45: 0/78

 

 

Jumanji Prime: 83/113

JGS: 64/519 (Up 22)

OE: 20/300 (Up 2)

Wonder: 16/312 (Up 3)

Lady Bird: 11/378 (Up 5)

Coco: 7/843 (Up 4)

JL: 5/546 (Up 2)

Thor: 4/390 (Up 4)

DH2, 3B, Bad Moms, The Star, and MBU have sold nothing.

 

Just Getting Started is on par with AA (14.8M) and 133% of AM (22.3M). This is going to be a Derby killer with how low some people went  

I don’t really trust JGS due to the distributor, but we’re gonna find out one way or another

[MrPink]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Friday theater update:

  Hide contents

 

Jumanji Prime:

 

7:00: 83/113

 

JGS:

 

11:30: 38/113

2:00: 14/113

4:30: 12/113

8:10: 0/67

10:00: 0/113

 

OE:

 

10:25: 18/60

1:10: 2/60

4:05: 0/60

6:50: 0/60

9:35: 0/60

 

Wonder:

 

1:50: 13/78

4:40: 3/78

7:20: 0/78

10:05: 0/78

 

Lady Bird:

 

10:05: 6/63

12:35: 3/63

3:05: 0/63

5:35: 0/63

8:05: 2/63

10:30: 0/63

 

Coco:

 

10:00: 4/67

11:30 3D: 0/78

12:45: 0/124

3:15: 3/124

4:55 3D: 0/78

5:45: 0/124

8:15: 0/124

10:45: 0/124

 

JL:

 

10:00: 1/78

1:00: 2/78

2:05 3D: 0/78

4:00: 0/78

7:00: 2/78

7:45 3D: 0/78

10:00: 0/78

 

Thor: 

 

10:45: 4/78

1:45 3D: 0/78

4:45: 0/78

7:45 3D: 0/78

10:45: 0/78

 

 

Jumanji Prime: 83/113

JGS: 64/519 (Up 22)

OE: 20/300 (Up 2)

Wonder: 16/312 (Up 3)

Lady Bird: 11/378 (Up 5)

Coco: 7/843 (Up 4)

JL: 5/546 (Up 2)

Thor: 4/390 (Up 4)

DH2, 3B, Bad Moms, The Star, and MBU have sold nothing.

 

Just Getting Started is on par with AA (14.8M) and 133% of AM (22.3M). This is going to be a Derby killer with how low some people went  

 

Or perhaps it's just gonna do gangbusters in Florida because everybody is an old fart.

[WrathOfHan]

12 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Or perhaps it's just gonna do gangbusters in Florida because everybody is an old fart.

People were going as low as 3M (I was that low until I saw how it was selling here). The heavily older skewing areas will get this to 5M IMO

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

People were going as low as 3M (I was that low until I saw how it was selling here). The heavily older skewing areas will get this to 5M IMO

Yeah that seems reasonable. Not exactly setting the world on fire though. Could be worse

[filmlover]

Just Getting Started will likely open to similar numbers as Playing for Keeps did ($5.8M) on this weekend five years ago, maybe a bit lower.

[filmlover]

I wonder how I, Tonya will do this weekend, especially when it's looking to be in contention for two acting nominations and nothing else. $50-60K PTA, maybe?

[filmlover]

The Disaster Artist hasn't even sold 15 tickets for tonight at a lot of the reserved seating theaters around me. Beginning to think my initial "too niche to find much of an audience" feeling was in fact the correct one.

[WrathOfHan]

26 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Disaster Artist hasn't even sold 15 tickets for tonight at a lot of the reserved seating theaters around me. Beginning to think my initial "too niche to find much of an audience" feeling was in fact the correct one.

So far it's selling pretty lightly today around Orlando. Disney's main night show has 16 tickets right now, and considering they had near-sellouts last night, I wouldn't consider this strong. We'll see how good walkups are. 1M+ previews with only a 6M weekend doesn't seem too far fetched.

Edited December 8, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

So far it's selling pretty lightly today around Orlando. Disney's main night show has 16 tickets right now, and considering they had near-sellouts last night, I wouldn't consider this strong. We'll see how good walkups are. 1M+ previews with only a 6M weekend doesn't seem too far fetched.

I think that's being optimistic. $6M would be a $7K+ PTA. Probably gonna be closer to $5K PTA for the weekend.

[spizzer]

I'll have sellout reports and price comps (with TFA/R1) sometime next week.

[WrathOfHan]

Christmas TCs: http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-winchester-house-ghosts-built/

 

Star Wars: 4,100+

Ferdinand: 3,600

Jumanji: 3,500

Pitch Perfect: 3,400

Greatest Showman: 3,000

Downsizing: 2,900

Father Figures: 2,600

 

No word on Money yet. That's a big TC for Downsizing compared to other Paramount movies like Fences and WOWS.

 

[Rumpot]

My theater has Darkest Hour on Dolby and Disaster Artist on IMAX....

[JonathanLB]

This is probably a dumb question, but how do you guys get so good at predicting the smaller movies? I find it fairly straight-forward predicting major blockbusters, insofar as let's say I believed Justice League would make maybe $110M (I believed based on hype and what I felt was the vibe, it would be below Thor 3), and I was off but not by that much. With a smaller movie, I swear I wouldn't know whether it opens to $8M or $25M. Do you guys just use a lot of comps based on genre, based on stars, based on similar opening periods, or what's the trick there? When a movie isn't a big blockbuster, I feel like I have a horrible concept of whether it's a $10M film or a $30M film. I just am curious for insight into getting better at those predictions.

[Barnack]

56 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Do you guys just use a lot of comps based on genre, based on stars, based on similar opening periods, or what's the trick there?

I am not really good (and do not predict much), but studios use (and if I do, I tend to)

 

1) Create a bank of the most comparable movies (nailed with genre, stars level, release pattern) and make an average of them

2) Look at the director/writer/producer track record

3) Distributor track record (for smaller movie it is often big a studio or studio branch versus a smaller player that will have to just stop the promos if the movie is not testing perfectly in every way), there seem to have some seeling potential sometime.

4) Obviously if it had a platform release, you can use it's PTA to find comparable and now word of mouth become a solid predictor.

 

Searchlight for example, after 2011:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?yr=&view=company&view2=allmovies&studio=foxsearchlight.htm&sort=open&order=DESC&p=.htm

 

Never reached 60m, their big movies tend to make 35 to 55m, so when you predict a Shape of waters/3 billboard you can take that into account, is it upper tier for that distributor look at the average of their top 20% release and use that as a starting point.

 

Sometime it can help (but I guess it is just misleading) to use an idea of the dbo/intl ratio those type of movies get, look at the WW total that your domestic prediction would give it and see if there is something wrong with that numbers.

 

Say you go and predict 160m for a movie like Murder on the Orient express, you look at the material, cast, set outside the US and that scream 35/65 type of performance, maybe even better, so 160m dbo you are predicting a 457m WW performance, that can start to sound to be quite a lot, maybe something between 280m to 325m is more realist, and you revise your domestic back to 95m to 115m.

 

Outside the crazy level reviews/award buzz a la Call me be your name, an other indicator is the high concept of the movie, does the movie hook and pitch fit in one sentence or 2 maximum, movies that do not has that need to have a bunker trailer or reviews, otherwise it will be hard for them.

 

Then quadrants, does that movie can play under/over 25, male/female or not, is it limited to just one or 2 and if it is how strong it play with it, for small movie you can get away with just 1 or 2 quadrant unlike Blade Runner and is budget.

Edited December 8, 2017 by Barnack

[WrathOfHan]

Orlando Area Thursday Sellout Update #2: 66/236 (Up 37/85)

 

This is what not doing an update in 2 months does  This is way ahead of any other movie I've tracked. It's more than double what RO finished with (26-29 IIRC; don't have exact numbers because I went to see it on opening night). I don't have specific TFA numbers, but it's definitely ahead of that. Keep in mind reserved seating has become more common over the past two years.

[FlashMaster659]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Orlando Area Thursday Sellout Update #2: 66/236 (Up 37/85)

 

This is what not doing an update in 2 months does  This is way ahead of any other movie I've tracked. It's more than double what RO finished with (26-29 IIRC; don't have exact numbers because I went to see it on opening night). I don't have specific TFA numbers, but it's definitely ahead of that. Keep in mind reserved seating has become more common over the past two years.

WOAH