The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[RealLyre]

What are the chances DP2 does less than 110M OW?

 

Even with good previews Comedy sequels are usually very front-loaded

 

and the reviews said it's not better than the first.

[MovieMan89]

I think it needs to do something like this to match the first's OW:

 

Thursday: 20m

Friday: 40m

Saturday: 42m

Sunday: 30m 

[fabiopazzo2]

Nah, easy over Deadpool 1

[Krissykins]

Yeh if it matches the first film it’s a success. 

[Nova]

23 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

What are the chances DP2 does less than 110M OW?

 

Even with good previews Comedy sequels are usually very front-loaded

 

and the reviews said it's not better than the first.

What? 

[TalismanRing]

NYC Fandango

 

DEADPOOL 2: THUR (1:35pm EST)

Theaters: 61

Showings:  443

Reserved: 293

Sellouts: 36* 

Complete Sell Outs: 4  (1 IMAX and 2 4DX)

 

*Tele method - one row or less unfilled

 

BLACK PANTHER (WED - day before Previews)

Theaters: 59

Showings: 449

Reserved*: 262

Sellouts**: 69

Complete Sellouts: 30

 

AVENGERS:  INFINITY WAR (THUR)

Theaters: 59

Showings: 661

Reserved: 380

Sellouts:  180

Complete SO: 115

 

CIVIL WAR (THUR)

Theaters: 59

Showings: 459

Reserved: 96

Sellouts:  97

Complete SO: 37

 

GOTG 2 (THUR)

Theaters: 55

Showings: 342

Reserved: 88

Sellouts:  34

Complete SO: 9

 

SM: HC: (THUR)

Theaters: 62

Showings: 320

Reserved: 167

Sellouts:  61

Complete SO: 7

 

THOR: RAGNAROK (THUR)

Theaters: 59

Showings: 313

Reserved: 192

Sellouts:  26

Complete SO: 6

 

Thoughts -   DP2 has a theater count near CW and BP but no where near the sellouts and seat saturation.   

 

It has about 30-40% more showings than  GOTG2, SM:HC and Thor:R so I'd expect less sellouts and near sellouts but it also has far more Reserved seating shows that I can check for near sellouts.   See GOTG2 v SM:HC when reserved showings almost doubled and near Sellouts were counted 61 to 34.  GOTG did 17m v 15.4m in previews.  Thor: R with even more Reserved seats though 100 less than DP2 - did $14.5m with a similar amount of sellouts and near sellouts.

 

Edited May 17, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Nova]

I'm gonna say around $18-20M for the preview number. Not sure how the rest of the weekend is going to play because at my theater while presales have been strong, it's seen a strong up tick in the last day or so. My theater added more showtimes for Thursday night as well. I'm gonna wait and see before predicting the rest of the weekend as a result. 

[EmpireCity]

47 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

What are the chances DP2 does less than 110M OW?

 

Even with good previews Comedy sequels are usually very front-loaded

 

and the reviews said it's not better than the first.

 

Almost every positive review has said it is better than the first.  

[Rebeccas]

Weird that AMC Lincoln Square only has 4 showtimes total for this tonight (2 regular and 2 IMAX). I guess 5 if you include the IMAX double feature that starts at 4pm..

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Weird that AMC Lincoln Square only has 4 showtimes total for this tonight (2 regular and 2 IMAX). I guess 5 if you include the IMAX double feature that starts at 4pm..

Very odd.  The lowest for any of the recent CBM movies is 7 showings   The IMAX first showing isn't sold out or near sold out either which usually happen within the week or sometimes day of tickets going on sale.

[Rebeccas]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

Very odd.  The lowest for any of the recent CBM movies is 7 showings   The IMAX first showing isn't sold out or near sold out either which usually happen within the week or sometimes day of tickets going on sale.

It's truly weird. It's not like they have any other big movies right now. Even for tomorrow, DP2 has the same number of showtimes as Infinity War lol

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:

It's truly weird. It's not like they have any other big movies right now. Even for tomorrow, DP2 has the same number of showtimes as Infinity War lol

Maybe the first one didn't perform comparatively well there. 

[Rebeccas]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

Maybe the first one didn't perform comparatively well there. 

Possible. That location isn't the most enthusiastic CBM theater, it runs a bit more arthouse than other large AMCs.

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

Possible. That location isn't the most enthusiastic CBM theater, it runs a bit more arthouse than other large AMCs.

It has the one and only true IMAX theater in NYC - it's catnip for tent pole releases.  It had 19 showings for A:IW (not including the Fan Fest one) and was one of the top locations in the country. 

 

 

Edited May 17, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Rebeccas]

8 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

It has the one and only true IMAX theater in NYC - it's catnip for tent pole releases.  It had 19 showings for A:IW (not including the Fan Fest one) and was one of the top locations in the country. 

 

 

Oh yeah, the IMAX is always filled for IW. The regular showings are definitely less full than Empire or 34th though.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

This is doing gangbusters in South Florida (as good as IW) but not particularly well in DC. Worth noting that college graduation for all DC schools is this weekend, whereas Florida schools it was all last weekend and the weekend before. That could be a dynamic worth watching around the country, considering the prime demographic for DP2 is college aged kids. 

That's the big reason I made my Deadpool 2 bet at $140M or less...college grad weekend and parties could take some cash away from the normal expected totals (and kick in those extra dollars over Mem Weekend...which would then affect Solo's OW...see, it's a domino effect on OWs:)...

[Cmasterclay]

Yea I'd wager with grad weekend and Memorial Day DP2 has a significantly better hold than expected, Solo notwithstanding.

[MCKillswitch123]

Call me crazy, but I think IW is gonna be the big story of this weekend (whether that's for good or bad reasons, it's open for us to find out). Obviously we're gonna have a massive 100M+ opening cbm here, but I don't think it's the type of opening that's gonna cause rabid movement in the forums, unless significantly overperforms or underperforms (and right now, indication looks to be headed towards the "expected" range of 130-150, which is totally fine and great.... even if it opens a little under DP1, one still has to recgonize that DP1 was boosted by Valentine's Day + President's Day after all). Deep down, my eyes are low-key on IW, as this is gonna be the ultimate test of its staying power. I am honestly a lot more curious about IW's drop than DP2's opening, not because I want DP2 to fail (not even close, I hope it's a big hit as it looks great and apparently is at least in the range of quality of the 1st one), because I know DP2 will be really, really, REALLY big regardless of where it lands; while w/IW, one would think that a massive drop is the expectation to have, but who fucking knows, it could still hold a lot stronger than expected. It's more unpredictable. Plus, whatever miniscule hopes of 700M that still exist do kinda lie on what happens in this frame.

Edited May 17, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Porthos]

Deadpool 2 Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY UPDATE) [1pm]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	167	9330	16201	42.41%

 

Total Showings Added Today:     1 

Total Seats Added Today:         46

Total Seats Sold Today:          942

 

---

 

edit:

 

Comps, imperfect as they are due to theater disparity:

.55925x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at the mid-day opening night update.

.98594x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at the mid-day opening night update.

 

Edited May 17, 2018 by Porthos

[Eric Prime]

On 5/15/2018 at 9:07 PM, CoolEric258 said:

Book Club	21	1539	1.36%
Deadpool 2	1185	3582	33.08%
Show Dogs	17	852	2.00%

 

A 31% jump for DP2 within the past day, although it helps that it got a massive expansion in its showtimes, specifically Thursday.

 

I don't know if this is the case for other theaters, but Show Dogs isn't getting any Thursday previews, while Book Club is only getting one at 5 PM.

Book Club	90	1539	5.85%
Deadpool 2	1685	3582	47.04%
Show Dogs	76	852	8.92%

 

Book Club Comps:

34% of Bad Moms 2's 3-Day ($5.7M)

36% of Daddy's Home 2 ($10.8M)

34% of Orient Express ($9.8M)

187% of 15:17 to Paris ($23.5M)

58% of Life of the Party ($10.3M)

 

Deadpool Comps:

185% of Thor: Ragnarok ($226.5M)

120% of Justice League ($112.6M)

42% of The Last Jedi ($91.9M)

34% of Black Panther ($68.9M)

41% of Infinity War ($106.1M)

 

How the weekend is playing out:

Thursday:

430

810

53.09%

 

Friday:

461

956

48.22%

 

Saturday:

456

956

53.02%

 

Sunday:

338

956

35.36%

 

Show Dogs Comps:

104% of My Little Pony ($9.2M)

21% of Coco's 3-Day ($10.8M)

58% of Ferdinand ($7.8M)

50% of Paddington 2 ($5.5M)

22% of Peter Rabbit ($5.6M)

74% of Sherlock Gnomes ($7.8M)

 

Deadpool 2's not looking so hot, but maybe this is just my theater as an outlier (BP also severely overperformed, which doesn't help when it comes to making comps). Book Club and Show Dogs seem like they're doing fine relative to their expectations.