The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[MrGlass2]

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-05-21 06:59:14 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-05-21 06:00:00	264	Deadpool 2
2018-05-21 06:00:00	151	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-05-21 06:00:00	48	Avengers Infinity War
2018-05-21 06:00:00	45	Book Club
2018-05-21 06:00:00	35	Solo A Star Wars Story 3D
2018-05-21 06:00:00	18	Deadpool 2 The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-05-21 06:00:00	16	Solo A Star Wars Story The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-05-21 06:00:00	13	Solo A Star Wars Story An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-05-21 06:00:00	13	Life of the Party
2018-05-21 06:00:00	9	Incredibles 2

[filmlover]

My theater is now selling advance tickets for Hereditary. Good to see A24 is trying to push it, even if it's unlikely to pay off.

Edited May 21, 2018 by filmlover

[DAJK]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

My theater is now selling advance tickets for Hereditary. Good to see A24 is trying to push it, even if it's unlikely to pay off.

Hereditary looks scary and unsettling as all fuck. I ain’t seeing it unless I’m in a big group

[Porthos]

Solo: A Star Wars Story GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-3 Days and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

1/103 (+0/+11) [R1: 12/107]

 

2D:  0/75 (+0/+9) [R1: 10/71]

3D:  0/28 (+0/+2) [R1: 2/36]

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 81 showings [+10) [R1: 46]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

2 (nc) [R1: 4]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

1 (nc) [R1: 5]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

14 (nc) [R1: 21]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

2 (nc) [R1: 0]

 

Weekend Showings

Fr:   0/203 (+0/+8)

St:   0/205 (+0/+8)

Su:  0/201 (+0/+7)

Mo: 0/191 (+0/+6)

 

---

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (81/103 showings [+10/+11]):

100%:      1 (nc)

90-99%:   3 (nc)

80-89%:   6 (+1)

70-79%:  10 (-1)

60-69%:   5 (+2)

50-59%:   6 (-1)

40-49%:   7 (+1)

30-39%:   4 (-1)

20-29%:   9 (+1)

10-19%:   6 (nc)

0-9%:     24 (+8)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	103	6745	11010	38.74%

Total Shows Added Today:      11 (1 non reserved)

Total Seat Added Today:       864
Total Seats Sold Today:        196

----

.4221x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 3 days before release. (IW had 21 more days of pre-sales)
.9450x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 3 days before release. (BP had 18 more days of pre-sales)
.9762x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2* 3 days before release. (DP2 had two [or so] more days of pre-sales)

 

* NOTE:  DP2 is also playing in 4 more theaters locally and had 15 more screens tracked at the same point in time.  

[TLK]

Solo's Monday transactions on Fandango : 13688.

 

Comparison

Deadpool 2 : 23134

A:IW           : 49836

 

Source - http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

Edited May 22, 2018 by TLK

[Nova]

Hopefully EmpireCity is right and Solo will be attracting the family crowds this weekend and hence not rely too much on presales. 

 

Otherwise im not sure how Solo is going to hit $170M for the 4-day. It hasn't really picked up at my theater at all for Thursday. And I just looked at its Friday and it's really not pretty. 

 

*Note I'm not on the it's going under $100M train. I'm just pointing out that the film is not selling how a potential $170M 4-day movie would/should be selling. Still thinking $120M for the 3-day and $135M-$140M for the 4-day but I'm gonna do a seat count tomorrow night like I did with DP2 and see where it stacks up. 

[Lordmandeep]

I dont see how solo attracts much family crowds as most young kids have no connection to han solo.

 

Mostly wishcasting right now

[FantasticBeasts]

All the signs are here that Solo will underperform big time.

We have 3 SW films to get info about and I think that's a fairly good sample. I can't see why Solo will suddenly start playing like an animation when it's a SW spin-off.

Sub 100m 3 day is the reasonable prediction.

[Poseidon]

I guess you should have seen it coming, when Disney was not giving out tracking numbers at all. 

[TalismanRing]

5 hours ago, TLK said:

Solo's Monday transactions on Fandango : 13688.

 

Comparison

Deadpool 2 : 23134

A:IW           : 49836

 

Source - http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

If it had the same % of Fandango Monday daily sales vs previews it would be on pace for about $11m in previews using either the DP or AIW numbers.

 

As a SW film though it had by % stronger early pre-sale numbers than DP if not AIW.  So at this pace maybe $15m?  It would need a 6.66 w/e multiplier to ht $100m for the 3 Day.  While that's much higher than previous SW movies 1) it's MD w/e which makes Sunday almost flat 2) the lower the preview numbers for SW the higher the w/e multiplier and this would be almost half of RO 3) MD weekend is very walk up friendly.

 

 

Edited May 22, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Lordmandeep]

But the intial previews are likely high 

 

I would go with 130 million 4-day

[TwoMisfits]

I can see the hope for family numbers - there has been a wasteland for families for awhile...BUT, families don't have free tickets/Moviepasses/etc, so I don't know that they'll turn out for this like a family movie (especially on OW) since it's not "wow" ratings.  It's also pool opening weekends everywhere, and there are pool parties and BBQs everywhere (we have 2 this weekend) - and it's a big beach/vacation/outing weekend.  And it doesn't help that Disney is already advertising their true family movie, I2, which is coming in a few weeks...if you only have the $75 for one movie (4 purchased tickets + popcorn/soda), you're probably going for that one...

 

I'd expect Disney to fund a ticket deal (either a blatant Solo specific one or a BOGO for all movies) with the online sellers this week to try to goose something for the weekend b/c this is not preselling like Star Wars, but if it walks up like Star Wars...hooo boy....

 

[Lordmandeep]

How many memorial day weekends have we said a movie will open fine as families have nothing else to watch and the film still underperforms?

 

 

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

How many memorial day weekends have we said a movie will open fine as families have nothing else to watch and the film still underperforms?

 

 

I think with any film it's hard to say well walk ups will save it. Sometimes the writing is on the wall and sometimes we get breakouts. The question with Solo is whether the writing is on the wall for it or if it "breaks out" in a way we weren't expecting. 

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

On 5/20/2018 at 9:16 PM, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

(May 20, 2018) 9:15PM ET - MT Update......Solo returns as the weekend comes to a close

 

55.9% Deadpool 2

16.6% Avengers: Infinity War 

7.2% Book Club

4.4% Solo: A Star Wars Story

2.8% Life of the Party

(May 22, 2018) 9:15AM ET - MT Update......Anyone have the Rogue One comp?

 

48.1% Deadpool 2

18.9% Solo: A Star Wars Story

9.8% Book Club

8.1% Avengers: Infinity War 

2.1% Life of the Party

[Lordmandeep]

17 minutes ago, Nova said:

I think with any film it's hard to say well walk ups will save it. Sometimes the writing is on the wall and sometimes we get breakouts. The question with Solo is whether the writing is on the wall for it or if it "breaks out" in a way we weren't expecting. 

IDK I usually go with my gut, I felt Deadpool going under 130 million and it did and I feel the same for this. 

 

 

I usually go out of my way to not let my personal feelings about a movie get in the way of box office. 

Edited May 22, 2018 by Lordmandeep

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

IDK I usually go with my gut, I felt Deadpool going under 130 million and it did and I feel the same for this. 

 

Deadpool 2 for the longest time felt like it was pacing roughly 50% behind IW and that's roughly where it opened. I thought it might do a bit better and out open the original based on walk ups cause it's R-rated but that wasn't the case. 

 

BUT in retrospect if we look at where DP2 was leading up to its release in terms of what members were reporting about sales and how it was doing on Fandango plus MT, the $125.5M OW isn't all surprising. 

Edited May 22, 2018 by Nova

[Nova]

6 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

(May 22, 2018) 9:15AM ET - MT Update......Anyone have the Rogue One comp?

 

48.1% Deadpool 2

18.9% Solo: A Star Wars Story

9.8% Book Club

8.1% Avengers: Infinity War 

2.1% Life of the Party

I don't think Rogue One is a good comp since Solo is dealing with a $125M OW movie but I'm sure RO was well ahead of that. 

[Lordmandeep]

Just now, Nova said:

Deadpool 2 for the longest time felt like it was pacing roughly 50% behind IW and that's roughly where it opened. I thought it might do a bit better and out open the original based on walk ups cause it's R-rated but that wasn't the case. 

 

BUT in retrospect if we look at where DP2 was leading up to its release, the $125.5M OW isn't all surprising. 

All logical signs show that Solo is not pacing as expected.

- low trailer views

- low social media buzz

- low presales for a fanbase movie like SW

- fanbase in a civil war over TLJ 

- Solo lacking a clear purpose or connection to OT like Rogue One did to draw in SW fans.

- Okay reviews

 

 

But hey pointing that out makes you an idiot, so whateverz 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

On 5/16/2018 at 12:24 PM, TwoMisfits said:

1st local (Cinemark) is finally up...here's the set...

 

NEW

Deadpool 2 (3 - 18 showings - funny this has more showings than the other local when supers don't sell AS well here - they still do sell really well)

 

Returning (Yep, no other new movies...that's a surprise...not even foreign ones - they just held over)

Breaking In (1)

Life of the Party (1)

Mahanati (1)

Razi/102 Not Out (1 - 2 showings each)

Overboard (1)

AIW (3)

A Quiet Place (1 - again, I think this would have been Deadpool's 4th screen, but it's being held b/c it's still really popular)

 

Gone

Everything Else

 

 

So, 1st local Cinemark is set...and it's not so bad for Solo, but it's awful for holdovers:)...

 

NEW

Solo (4 - 20 showings - 5 3d/15 2d) - not a normal Star Wars set, but too much demand for the movies they kept to give it more - this is a normal supers set:)...

Nela Ticket (.5 - 2 showings)

 

Returning

Deadpool (2.6 - 16 showings - only losing 2 showings from last week's set)

Avengers IW (1.4 - 7 showings - one extra early matinee and one extra late night)

Overboard (1)

Life of the Party / Manahati (.6 / .4 - 3 earlt showings for LOP and 2 later ones for the foreign film)

 

Gone 

EVERYTHING ELSE - like EVERYTHING:)

 

Now, 1.5 screens are still around - I expect foreign films to grab them, but we'll see as the week goes...

 

EDIT: And for Thursday, the theater has now set 9 showings (almost doubling their 1st set, as expected...actually I expected more, and it still could get more, but I doubt it for now) - 2 3d/7 2d - this is their final set.  Not amazing, either, but not awful...it's in the normal supers (ie - not AIW) range...

Edited May 22, 2018 by TwoMisfits