The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[That One Girl]

I think you guys should be a bit more wary when it comes to frontloadness in terms of presales.  It’s arguably one of the most anticipated sequels ever and has a much larger, older-skewing fanbase than something like, say, Finding Nemo.  It’s not hard to see a scenario where it “only” does 150M or so (which would still be excellent btw)

[TLK]

Fandango Presales Volume.

 

Date           Name                      Monday      Tuesday       Wednesday
04/06/18    A Quiet Place           2177          4003            10665
04/06/18    Blockers                  504            1106             2931
04/13/18    Rampage                705            1508             4109
04/13/18    Truth Or Dare         385            760               2133
04/20/18    Super Troopers 2    2825          3447             6811
04/20/18    I Feel Pretty             871            1610            4423
04/27/18    Avengers 3              49836        54892          68826   
05/04/18    Overboard               84              409             1044

05/11/18    Breaking In              727            1204            2899
05/11/18    Life Of The Party      587            1310           3010

05/18/18    Deadpool 2              23134        28896         41212
05/18/18    Show Dogs              6               128               369
05/18/18    Book Club                836            1599           3283

05/25/18    Solo : Star Wars       13688       15855           28533

06/01/18    Action Point             17              48               197

06/01/18    Adrift                       63              308             1268

06/01/18    Upgrade                  9                119              522

06/08/18    Hotel Artemis          28              177              507

06/08/18    Hereditary               669            1201            3108

06/08/18    Oceans 8                 3048          4429            11225

06/15/18    Incredibles 2           20872         23430         39337

06/15/18    Tag                         314             660             1448

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

[MCKillswitch123]

3 hours ago, That One Guy said:

I think you guys should be a bit more wary when it comes to frontloadness in terms of presales.  It’s arguably one of the most anticipated sequels ever and has a much larger, older-skewing fanbase than something like, say, Finding Nemo.  It’s not hard to see a scenario where it “only” does 150M or so (which would still be excellent btw)

Pretty much this, and I think this especially applies to full on DOM total, where it could gross "just" a 3-3.4x due to the especially high (and far more fanbase-skewing) OW compared to the typical animated film. There's a chance this plays a little closer than usual to an average tentpole. On the other hand, it won't have any relevant competition until Hotel Transylvania 3, and even then I doubt that puts anywhere near as much of a dent on it as Pets did to Dory.

 

That being said, it's got a 90% chance of outgrossing JW2 DOM at this point (WW is still a question mark, but I doubt it; unless the superhero effect + Coco boosting Pixar's appeal OS does it a giant favor), so there's that. And 150M+ OW would still annihilate the animated OW record, and would come close to the adjusted openings of Shrek 2 and 3 (O/U 160M both).

Edited June 14, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[dxmatrixdt]

from the post above, it appears as if each movie is increasing day-to-day.

[Stewart]

Can anyone from US confirm what movies will be playing as a double feature with Incredibles? (I believe drive-ins normally do double features, from what I remember people saying in the past)

 

Avengers, Black Panther or Solo? Or maybe even something from another studio?

[MCKillswitch123]

11 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Can anyone from US confirm what movies will be playing as a double feature with Incredibles? (I believe drive-ins normally do double features, from what I remember people saying in the past)

 

Avengers, Black Panther or Solo? Or maybe even something from another studio?

A Wrinkle In Time

 

[a2k]

Even before thu previews era, quiet a few Pixar movies had started showing drops on Sat due to Pixar fanbase front-loading and also due to more grown ups watching them compared to other animations. 

 

Dory also did not increase from true Friday (and I remember the meltdowns as a shot at 150 was realistic once huge Friday numbers came out).

 

Can see 145-150 for I2,
12 + 48.0 (4x) + 47.0 (-2%) + 40.5 (-14%) = 147.5 compared to,

9.2 + 45.6 (5x) + 45.6 (+0%) + 34.7 (-24%) = 135.1 for DORY

 

CARS3 dropped 15% on FD Sunday.

Edited June 14, 2018 by a2k

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

1 hour ago, mathemetrics said:

from the post above, it appears as if each movie is increasing day-to-day.

Those are presale numbers per day leading up to release I believe 

Edited June 14, 2018 by The Fast and the Furiosa

[filmlover]

Tag is getting decent reviews so far.

[dxmatrixdt]

boy, if A Wrinkle in Time gets all those double features, 100M might be locked.

[Morieris]

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Can anyone from US confirm what movies will be playing as a double feature with Incredibles? (I believe drive-ins normally do double features, from what I remember people saying in the past)

 

One of our theaters just had the first one with it.

[Stewart]

11 minutes ago, mathemetrics said:

boy, if A Wrinkle in Time gets all those double features, 100M might be locked.

 

1 minute ago, Morieris said:

One of our theaters just had the first one with it.

Okay I did a little looking around, the first 4 theatres I looked at were showing:

 

Incredibles 2 + Solo (expected)

Incredibles 2 + Infinity War (okay, kinda old but okay)

Incredibles 2 + Ocean's 8 (wtf?)

Incredibles 2 + Book Club (even more wtf??)

 

so from this, very limited, data set, it seems no particular movie will get a boost this weekend.

[Morieris]

4 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Incredibles 2 + Ocean's 8 (wtf?)

 

🤔

[Stewart]

Just now, Morieris said:

 

🤔

Probably just playing the two most recent films. 

 

I just find the book club pairing absolutely baffling. 

 

Different audiences, different genre, different company, different rating... there's literally nothing in common

[TalismanRing]

24 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

 

Okay I did a little looking around, the first 4 theatres I looked at were showing:

 

Incredibles 2 + Solo (expected)

Incredibles 2 + Infinity War (okay, kinda old but okay)

Incredibles 2 + Ocean's 8 (wtf?)

Incredibles 2 + Book Club (even more wtf??)

 

so from this, very limited, data set, it seems no particular movie will get a boost this weekend.

I just looked in about a dozen.  Seems mostly spit between Avengers and Solo with one Adrift (???) thrown in.

 

Interesting regular pair up of Deadpool and Hereditary 

Edited June 14, 2018 by TalismanRing

[TalismanRing]

34 minutes ago, mathemetrics said:

boy, if A Wrinkle in Time gets all those double features, 100M might be locked.

It didn't help when it got them for AIW or Solo or that 1700 theater boost.  They're going to have to start giving them away like Passengers.

[dxmatrixdt]

21 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

 

Okay I did a little looking around, the first 4 theatres I looked at were showing:

 

Incredibles 2 + Solo (expected)

Incredibles 2 + Infinity War (okay, kinda old but okay)

Incredibles 2 + Ocean's 8 (wtf?)

Incredibles 2 + Book Club (even more wtf??)

 

so from this, very limited, data set, it seems no particular movie will get a boost this weekend.

 

if you used any search engine, I know the first few pages for this does not help much.  one would have to be committed to digging up all the main and more importantly most expensive $$ double feature drive in venues across 50 states + other territories and then keeping tabs on what is playing where.

[TalismanRing]

Drive In Database

 

http://www.driveinmovie.com/mainmenu.htm

 

No search function for movies, you have to click on each state then each theater to get what they'res showing

 

Scanning through some more, Solo seems to be the predominant choice, then AIW, then Oceans 8,  a few Cocos & WIT (!!) and lastly some one offs like, Adrift & Show Dogs.

 

Also seeing quite  a few Deadpool2/Supertroopers2 which makes more sense than the popular DP2/Hereditary

 

The biggest impression though is that most of their websites are more out of date than the concept of drive ins.  Size 40 yellow and purple font in frames ... my eyes!

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 14, 2018 by TalismanRing

[Arlo245]

Incredibles 2 about to break 60% and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom making an appearance 

 

59.4%

Incredibles 2, The

9.6%

Ocean's 8

3.9%

Solo: A Star Wars Story

3.6%

Hereditary

3.3%

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Edited June 14, 2018 by Arlo245

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

20 minutes ago, mathemetrics said:

 

if you used any search engine, I know the first few pages for this does not help much.  one would have to be committed to digging up all the main and more importantly most expensive $$ double feature drive in venues across 50 states + other territories and then keeping tabs on what is playing where.

Someone has actually gone through and done this. Not my info to give though. Let’s just say I’d be surprised at anything more than a tiny bump in boost since it’s very spread out over several titles