The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Barnack]

10 hours ago, mathemetrics said:

Equalizer could go either way.  Denzel should push it to 20m OW which likely gives cushion to raise the OW to match Equalizer 1.

I think the other way around, Equalizer 2 is one of the project with the most narrow band of expected result for me. Denzel in general is extremelly consistent plus being a sequel.

 

It should open well and do well, there is almost a 0 change for this to flop and at the same time Denzel significantly went over 200m in is career once with American Gangster, really chance for this to breakout.

 

The number of movies it did put between 130m and 210m is extraordinary (16), but that the relatively narrow range movies like those should end up with.

[dxmatrixdt]

7 hours ago, mathemetrics said:

not looking good for another 10m weekend for Oceans 8

 

7 hours ago, el sid said:

MT update:

#1 JW2 35.3%
#2 TI2 33.6%
#3 Sicario2 8.5%
#4 Uncle Drew 5.2%
#5 O8 3.4%

 

JW2 - 35.4%

I2 - 28.6%

Sicario - 10%

Uncle - 7.5%

O8 - 3.4%

 

from the % shares, it looks like O8 will not likely make it to 10m this weekend unless it got lost in the shuffle over at MT sales.

[poweranimals]

2 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Pro box office updated their long range and put:

 

Happytime Murders at $18m

Slenderman at $19m

 

They have $77m for Ant-Man and reduced Skyscraper to $36.5m. 

I'm really surprised Ant-Man hasn't moved up at all. Especially when it comes out next week. 

[Barnack]

12 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

I'm really surprised Ant-Man hasn't moved up at all. Especially when it comes out next week. 

Box office pro are making prediction not simply showing the current tracking (if they do one / buy data) from what I understand.

 

It is not much surprising for movie on that plaform to not move that much without a special event, for example here Ant-Man reviews were probably exactly what they expected, high RT % score with a medium average rating.

[Blaze Heatnix]

The Equalizer 2 performing like the first one...That would be great!

 

Budget probably isn't high ( first one had something like 50-55 million ). Sure, Denzel probably got another 20 million to make this movie ( he usually gets that same number for most of them, if I'm correct ), but I guess the whole budget isn't much higher than 60-65 million hopefully.

 

I don't care about PG-13 Skyscraper and Mission Impossible 6 at all. My money will go to Ant-Man and The Wasp and The Equalizer 2 on July. 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

The Equalizer 2 performing like the first one...That would be great!

 

Budget probably isn't high ( first one had something like 50-55 million ). Sure, Denzel probably got another 20 million to make this movie ( he usually gets that same number for most of them, if I'm correct ), but I guess the whole budget isn't much higher than 60-65 million hopefully.

 

 

Salary before bonus (that seem to have been reasonably low on this, only 14m distributed in bonus, less than 30% of the profits, they were gross dollar and not profit only probably why) on the first Equalizer looked like this:

 

Director: 5.091m
Producer: 4.376m
Denzel: 20m + 1.96m in entourage/security
Chloe Mortez: 400K + 153k in teacher entourage
MARTON CSOKAS: 400k + 155k
Johnny Skourtis: 44.85k
Darvid Harbour: 85k
Melissa Leo: 200k

 

Net budget was of 63.08m, half of it financed by village roadshow (25%) and Lone Star (25%), with Oceanic market to Village Roadshows.

 

I would imagine Denzel is still on is usual 20M on this yes, would also imagine a 60-75m budget at max.

[dxmatrixdt]

7 hours ago, mathemetrics said:

 

 

JW2 - 35.4%

I2 - 28.6%

Sicario - 10%

Uncle - 7.5%

O8 - 3.4%

 

from the % shares, it looks like O8 will not likely make it to 10m this weekend unless it got lost in the shuffle over at MT sales.

Jurassic - 34.4%

Incredibles - 26.8%

Sicario - 10.2%

Uncle Drew -  8.6%

Ocean's 8 - 3.6%

[dxmatrixdt]

23 hours ago, mathemetrics said:

Jurassic - 34.4%

Incredibles - 26.8%

Sicario - 10.2%

Uncle Drew -  8.6%

Ocean's 8 - 3.6%

About the same time, one day later...

 

Jurassic World - 34.6%

Incredibles 2 - 28.7%

Sicario - 9.3%

Uncle Drew - 5.8%

Ocean's 8 - 4.2%

[YM!]

On 6/26/2018 at 9:02 AM, YourMother the Edgelord said:

North Shore Cinema update

 

Ant Man and The Wasp is running 17% behind Incredibles 2 ($151M OW), 8% behind Homecoming ($107.64M OW), and 5% behind Rangarok ($116.56M OW).

 

These are fucking great presales but it should be noted that both Incredibles 2 (backloaded due to walk ups and it’s nature as an animated film) and Thor Rangarok (had the $20 fan screening which diluted presales a bit) were backloaded but this definitely bodes well. Don’t want to say $100M+ OW just yet due audiences and families still dealing the back to back boom of Incredibles 2 and Fallen Kingdom, my range has gone up though. $75M-$95M OW. I’m doing Uncle Drew and Sicaro later and see if HT3 and Skyscraper moved as well.

North Shore Cinema update 

 

Ant Man and The Wasp is running 48.5% behind Justice League ($47.9M) and 30% behind Homecoming ($82.3M). If we use Ultrascreen only for Justice League it is at $62.8M OW. Not going to lie, this isn’t looking the best right now, I should have a better idea Tuesday but I don’t like how far behind it is compared to Justice League and especially Homecoming as it was the most backloaded. My range is for $70M-$90M OW. Not sold on $100M unless sales pick up Tuesday.

 

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation is running 1000% ahead of Wrinkle ($350M OW), 150% ahead of Coco ($125M OW), 58% behind DM3 ($31.2M OW) and 33% behind The Star ($6.5M OW). These are not the best comparisons obviously but some of them are hilarious. The best one is probably DM3, which is a good start.

Edited July 1, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[TalismanRing]

35 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

North Shore Cinema update 

 

Ant Man and The Wasp is running 48.5% behind Justice League ($47.9M) and 30% behind Homecoming ($82.3M). If we use Ultrascreen only for Justice League it is at $62.8M OW. Not going to lie, this isn’t looking the best right now, I should have a better idea Tuesday but I don’t like how far behind it is compared to Justice League and especially Homecoming as it was the most backloaded. My range is for $70M-$90M OW. Not sold on $100M unless sales pick up Tuesday.

 

Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation is running 1000% ahead of Wrinkle ($350M OW), 150% ahead of Coco ($125M OW), 58% behind DM3 ($31.2M OW) and 33% behind The Star ($6.5M OW). These are not the best comparisons obviously but some of them are hilarious. The best one is probably DM3, which is a good start.

DC films are more pre-sale heavy and less walk up driven than MCU films.     SM:HC is a better comp not only because it's MCU but because it skewed younger than other MCU films and I think AMATW will a well.  R

 

Right now I think $80-85m is more likely than $100m unless pre-sales really pick up this week.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

DC films are more pre-sale heavy and less walk up driven than MCU films.     SM:HC is a better comp not only because it's MCU but because it skewed younger than other MCU films and I think AMATW will a well.  R

 

Right now I think $80-85m is more likely than $100m unless pre-sales really pick up this week.

Still, it’s still behind Homecoming and Homecoming is the easiest comparison for films aiming at $100M+ OW to cross. 

[Boxofficerules]

How’s The First Purge tracking?

[dxmatrixdt]

Grabbed showtimes from about 10 theaters.   The dates were for Monday and Wednesday.  Purge only playing on 1-2 screens / theater.  About 10 of the theaters dropped 1 film only.  The other ones just shaved down showtimes for JW.  

Superfly did not get cut, it kept its 1 or 2 shows per location.

Deadpool and Solo both got a few drops each at select theaters for Wednesday.  I was surprised.

Hereditary was the only other one to have a few drops.  

Hereditary, Solo, and Deadpool, each a few cuts here and there.  🤔

[YLF]

Antman isnt doing too well in presales. for the last three marvel movie preview night tickets by this time especially for premium showings were sold out or near sold out. This time around there are an abundance of seats left. I really wonder what this will make opening weekend. I think less than 100M.

Edited July 2, 2018 by YLF

[LeoC]

I never think it has a chance to make 100m+ OW

[Hades]

7 hours ago, YLF said:

Antman isnt doing too well in presales. for the last three marvel movie preview night tickets by this time especially for premium showings were sold out or near sold out. This time around there are an abundance of seats left. I really wonder what this will make opening weekend. I think less than 100M.

Record breaking June and light Superhero fatigue.....

[poweranimals]

Surprised Ant-Man isn't in the top 5 on MT.com yet.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Surprised Ant-Man isn't in the top 5 on MT.com yet.

I was literally coming here to say the same exact thing. 

 

As for presales at my theater. It’s doing well for the 6:00PM and 9:00PM showtimes but the 10:30PM showtime has sold 2 tickets. But I have no idea what it means as I have no real comps for it except DP2 and well I don’t know if I wanna use that as a comp as using that as a comp screwed me over for JW2 since DP2 was so frontloaded and I don’t expect Ant-man to be as front loaded. But as others have stated presales seem rather weak. I haven’t checked for the rest of the weekend though. JW2 was pretty “weak” for Thursday night at my theater but if you guys remember I said it was selling a lot better for the rest of the weekend than what the Thursday sales were showing. So I don’t know if Ant-man is doing the same. 

[YM!]

Again I’ve said this for a while but I wouldn’t be too surprised if some wind gets taken out of Ant Man due to how big Incredibles 2 and Fallen Kingdom were, we’ve had the first back to back weeks with openers over $145M last week and both are still going strong and appeal to Ant Man’s main demos.

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Again I’ve said this for a while but I wouldn’t be too surprised if some wind gets taken out of Ant Man due to how big Incredibles 2 and Fallen Kingdom were, we’ve had the first back to back weeks with openers over $145M last week and both are still going strong and appeal to Ant Man’s main demos.

I mean I’ve said for weeks that one of those three films would get the short end of the stick. I always had Incredibles 2 as the sure bet with JW2 or Ant-man getting the short end. The question for me was always which film would it be. For a moment I thought it would be JW2 but now it’s looking like JW2 coming before Ant-man paid off for JW2 and Ant-man is gonna be the odd man out. But it’s too early to tell and it could get a last minute push in sales plus i imagine it’s gonna have really really good legs ala SMH since there’s nothing in front of it really. So it may not get a pretty OW but it’ll have really good legs to show for it, I’d imagine. 

 

I think Ant-man should have just gotten that first week August release to be honest. Gives it a ton of space between it and I2 plus JW2 and it’ll have been released at the same time all around the world. Not really sure why Disney decided to have it so close to JW2 let alone I2. 

Edited July 2, 2018 by Nova