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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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GambitPool Indie Sensation

GambitPool

Posted
Posted

My Theater for Ant-Man and the Wasp:

 

3D Showings:

 

6:15pm - 41/94

10:45pm - 9/94

 

2D XD Showings:

 

7pm - 126/158

10pm- 24/158

 

2D Showings:

 

7:45pm- 89/108

8:15pm- 49/81

9:00pm- 35/108

9:30pm - 29/94

11:15pm- 13/81

 

Dat 7pm XD showing. :jeb!:

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BugsBunny Straight-to-DVD

BugsBunny

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

7:50 ET  

 

MT Update:

 

AMATW: 33.2%

I2: 19%

JWFK: 17.9%

First Purge: 11.1%

Sicario: 3.1%

Ant-man roughly 80% above JWFK. And JWFK might do ~7.5-8.0mm tonight? Taking the lower end of 7.5mm and assuming Ant-man has slightly higher proportion of its sales going to later weekend shows than JWFK, maybe ~13.5mm or so in previews?

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

6:00: 85/113

7:00 3D: 60/78

Total: 145/191 (85 2D/60 3D)

6:00: 85/113

7:00 3D: 60/78

8:30: 56/124

Total: 201/315 (141 2D/60 3D)

 

Hitting 300 tickets will be the goal, but I don't know if it'll hit that mark. Ragnarok (337) and JL (322) look out of reach, but I think previews will still hit double digits

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Ant Man & The Wasp Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: 

PREMIERE NIGHT - FINAL REPORT [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

114

6515

11120

41.41%

 

Total Showings Added Since 1pm:        2

Total Seats Added Since 1pm:           224

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1070

 

.3498x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at final report.

.5682x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at final report.

.5662x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at final report. 

.7955x as many tickets sold as Solo at final report. 

.7394x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 at final report. 

 

No showings had six seats left or less, so none were manually adjusted to a sellout (though one was at seven seats left at final check)

 

===============

 

More detailed Final comps:

 

IW:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

59

182

1995

15159

86.84%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):          878

 

BP:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

26

136

3377

11481

70.59%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):         1135

 

DP2:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

3

169

8357

16490

49.32%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):        1262

 

Solo:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

5

143

7732

13521

42.81%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):         486

 

JW2:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

147

7487

13715

45.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:           1275

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Ant Man & The Wasp Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: 

PREMIERE NIGHT - FINAL REPORT [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

114

6515

11120

41.41%

 

Total Showings Added Since 1pm:        2

Total Seats Added Since 1pm:           224

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1070

 

.3498x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at final report.

.5682x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at final report.

.5662x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at final report. 

.7955x as many tickets sold as Solo at final report. 

.7394x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 at final report. 

 

No showings had six seats left or less, so none were manually adjusted to a sellout (though one was at seven seats left at final check)

 

 

So, if it follows JWFK ($15.3M preview), Ant Man would have about $11.3M in previews...if it follows Deadpool 2 ($18.6M), it would be $10.5M...so I'd say something in the neighborhood of $10.5M-$11.5M seems to be the likeliest number so far...unless this area is an outlier...

 

PS - I hate being back to a free account, b/c I am again blowing all my likes already on a Thursday:)...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:

7:50 ET  

 

MT Update:

 

AMATW: 33.2%

I2: 19%

JWFK: 17.9%

First Purge: 11.1%

Sicario: 3.1%

8:50 ET  

 

AMATW: 34.8%

I2: 18.9%

JWFK: 17.5%

First Purge: 10.6%

Sicario: 2.9%   

 

Now 1.6% behind I2+JW2

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Breakdown of AM&TW at final report:

 

(Gonna use Solo as a comp, as it's the lowest preview number I have of all the detailed tracking info reports)

 

========

 

Sellouts: 

0/114  [Solo: 5/143]

 

2D:  0/78   [Solo: 5/107]

3D:  0/36     [Solo: 0/36]

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 89 showings [Solo: 109]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

0             [Solo: 0]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

0             [Solo: 3]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

20 (+14)  [Solo: 22]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

1 (+1)      [Solo: 0]

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (89/114 showings [Solo: 109/143])

100%:        0          [Solo: 5]

90-99%:    0          [Solo: 3]

80-89%:    9 (+5)  [Solo: 8]

70-79%:  11 (+4)  [Solo: 11]

60-69%:  15 (+8)  [Solo: 13]

50-59%:    3 (-5)   [Solo: 8]

40-49%:    9 (+2)  [Solo: 9]

30-39%:    7 (+1)  [Solo: 6]

20-29%:  10 (-2)  [Solo: 7]

10-19%:    9 (-5)  [Solo: 16]

0-9%:      16 (-6)  [Solo: 23]

 

==============

 

There was a YUGE surge of tickets sold today for AM&TW, but not quite at the level  of JW:FK. 

 

Should be enough to propel the preview number into double digits.  Beyond that we'll just have to see.

Edited by Porthos
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Andreas Sleeper Hit

Andreas

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

8:50 ET  

 

AMATW: 34.8%

I2: 18.9%

JWFK: 17.5%

First Purge: 10.6%

Sicario: 2.9%   

 

Now 1.6% behind I2+JW2

Also almost 100% more than JW2

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

6:00: 85/113

7:00 3D: 60/78

8:30: 56/124

Total: 201/315 (141 2D/60 3D)

 

Hitting 300 tickets will be the goal, but I don't know if it'll hit that mark. Ragnarok (337) and JL (322) look out of reach, but I think previews will still hit double digits

6:00: 85/113

7:00 3D: 60/78

8:30: 56/124

9:00: 51/113

Total: 252/428 (192 2D/60 3D)

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BugsBunny Straight-to-DVD

BugsBunny

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

8:50 ET  

 

AMATW: 34.8%

I2: 18.9%

JWFK: 17.5%

First Purge: 10.6%

Sicario: 2.9%   

 

Now 1.6% behind I2+JW2

Hard to know how much is for tomorrow or the weekend proportionately versus the other two of tickets sold today. Certainly higher, question how much. If it were even proportions, we’d be talking $15-16mm previews. My guess based only on this % tracking is that we’ll be around $12mm with room to the upside. 

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

6:00: 85/113

7:00 3D: 60/78

8:30: 56/124

9:00: 51/113

Total: 252/428 (192 2D/60 3D)

6:00: 85/113

7:00 3D: 60/78

8:30: 56/124

9:00: 51/113

9:45: 13/67

Total: 265/495 (205 2D/60 3D)

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

6:00: 85/113

7:00 3D: 60/78

8:30: 56/124

9:00: 51/113

9:45: 13/67

Total: 265/495 (205 2D/60 3D)

Final sales:

 

6:00: 85/113

7:00 3D: 60/78

8:30: 56/124

9:00: 51/113

9:45: 13/67
10:00 3D: 5/78

Total: 270/573 (205 2D/65 3D)

 

Comps:

 

25% of Infinity War (64.4M)

53% of Black Panther (107.1M)

56% of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (82.9M)

63% of Deadpool 2 (79.1M)

66% of Solo (55.7M)

80% of Thor: Ragnarok (98.2M)

84% of Justice League (78.8M)

84% of Incredibles 2 (153.5M)

 

Based on BP, Ragnarok, and JW, I'm expecting O/U 80M. We'll see how Friday is looking shortly.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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Cooper Legion Global Phenomenon

Cooper Legion

Posted
Posted
Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Final sales:

 

6:00: 85/113

7:00 3D: 60/78

8:30: 56/124

9:00: 51/113

9:45: 13/67
10:00 3D: 5/78

Total: 270/573 (205 2D/65 3D)

 

Comps:

 

25% of Infinity War (64.4M)

53% of Black Panther (107.1M)

56% of Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (82.9M)

63% of Deadpool 2 (79.1M)

66% of Solo (55.7M)

80% of Thor: Ragnarok (98.2M)

84% of Justice League (78.8M)

84% of Incredibles 2 (153.5M)

 

Based on BP, Ragnarok, and JW, I'm expecting O/U 180M. We'll see how Friday is looking shortly.

Wow, tying the Incredibles 2, huge overperformance from AM tonight ;)

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted

How tomorrow looks at my theater for Ant-Man and the Wasp:

 

10:15: 78/124

11:00 3D: 6/78

11:45: 45/67

12:15: 3/78

12:30 3D: 5/60

1:00: 20/124

1:45 3D: 4/78

2:30: 2/67

3:00 3D: 0/78

3:45: 27/124

4:30 3D: 3/78

5:15: 10/67

5:45 3D: 0/78

6:30: 49/124

7:15 3D: 13/78

8:30 3D: 2/78

9:15: 22/124

10:00 3D: 0/78

Total: 289/1,583 (256 2D/33 3D)

 

This is lagging very far behind Jurassic World and Incredibles 2, but as we saw today, it's pretty walkup based.

 

 

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