The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Shivampa]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-48 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	8240	10608	22.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              37

 

.3792x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after eleven days of pre-sales.

 

Day 11 Comp:

 

IW:        49 tickets sold [1 sellout/114 showings |   4766/11011 seats left  | 56.72% sold] 

 

As thought Captain Marvel is back on track of being a underperformer.. I still don't understand 160M OW projection. Could anyone explain it? 

[Premium George]

5 minutes ago, Shivampa said:

As thought Captain Marvel is back on track of being a underperformer.. I still don't understand 160M OW projection. Could anyone explain it? 

[Eric Lasagna]

3 minutes ago, Premium George said:

This is the greatest GIF I've seen in ages.

[Premium George]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

This is the greatest GIF I've seen in ages.

Created by Kyler spears, a storyboard artist who has worked on many cartoon Network shows. Currently on we bare bears.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Shivampa said:

As thought Captain Marvel is back on track of being a underperformer.. I still don't understand 160M OW projection. Could anyone explain it? 

Yes, yes.  A film 48 days out from premiering isn't selling hundreds of tickets a day in a mid-sized metro market after already being on sale for a week and a half.  Truly this is an inexplicable phenomenon. 

Edited January 19, 2019 by Porthos

[Nova]

2 hours ago, Shivampa said:

As thought Captain Marvel is back on track of being a underperformer.. I still don't understand 160M OW projection. Could anyone explain it? 

No. Because it's obvious that you don't care about why it's tracking for that big of a weekend and you're more interested in trolling. 

[HouseOfTheSun]

2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

This is the greatest GIF I've seen in ages.

Yea this one’s goin in my “premium memes” save folder 

[DeeCee]

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[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-47 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	8204	10608	22.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              36

 

.3818x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 12 days of pre-sales.

 

Day 12 Comp:

 

IW:        52 tickets sold [1 sellout/114 showings |   4714/11011 seats left  | 57.19% sold] 

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-46 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	8161	10608	23.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              43

 

.3846x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 13 days of pre-sales.

.5249x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 41 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day 13 Comp:

 

IW:        66 tickets sold [1 sellout/114 showings |   4648/11011 seats left  | 57.79% sold] 

Edited January 21, 2019 by Porthos

[HouseOfTheSun]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-46 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	8161	10608	23.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              43

 

.3846x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 13 days of pre-sales.

.5249x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 41 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day 13 Comp:

 

IW:        66 tickets sold [1 sellout/114 showings |   4648/11011 seats left  | 57.79% sold] 

Seems like it’s holding pretty well compared to something like Infinity War right?

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Seems like it’s holding pretty well compared to something like Infinity War right?

I'd more put it that it's holding pretty well for a film that still has over a month and a half to premiere.

 

Thing is, and I know I keep saying this, it's still being helped by low/medium hanging fruit being plucked.  But said fruit is getting harder and harder to grab.

 

Like, take Century Arden.  It sold a grand total of three tickets across twelve showings in the last 24 hours. It had pretty anemic sales yesterday as well, outside of a spurt for the fan event showings. But Century Arden also happens to be one of the most trafficked theaters in town and so it's already sold a shit-ton of tickets in the 'prime time' windows, thus it's low hanging/medium hanging fruit is in short supply. 

 

Today we had a spurt at one of the local dinner-and-a-movie haunts, as well as a couple of other locales. I can't tell you if those spurts will happen tomorrow or not.

 

So... Yes.  But there's a long stretch of days ahead.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 1/19/2019 at 10:39 PM, Premium George said:

I am so using this GIF for some time.

[Porthos]

Let me try to put my argument a different way.

 

When I see slow, but steady, sales across all theaters in a region (adjusting for showtime desirability and theater reputation), I think I have a pretty good handle on how a film is doing locally.

 

But when I see spikes for certain showtimes at certain theaters, in my head I put that down more as random variation.

 

Now ticket sales are ticket sales.  But when it comes to projecting future ticket sales in the region in the short term, I can't count on those random spikes to keep occurring.

 

Now, sure, when tracking fourteen different theaters at the reserved seating level, the chances any one of them might spike is still kinda okay.  OTOH, as those low hanging fruits disappear, the odds of the spikes get stacked against it.  Like, I'm no longer expecting random spikes at Century Arden or Studio Movie Grill Rocklin (the latter only has one showing listed at the moment and it's nearly maxed out).  So that's two theaters off the spike list.  And as other theaters fill up, the chances I might see a spike at any one of those get lessened.

 

So, yes. It is hanging pretty well for a film that still has 46 days to sell.  

 

Will it continue to do so on day 44?  Day 38?  Day 31??

 

...

 

Just gonna have to tune in to find out, I suppose.

 

 

Edited January 21, 2019 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

34 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-46 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	8161	10608	23.07%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              43

 

.3846x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 13 days of pre-sales.

.5249x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 41 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day 13 Comp:

 

IW:        66 tickets sold [1 sellout/114 showings |   4648/11011 seats left  | 57.79% sold] 

Brother comparison with Infinity War seems bit odd. Best comparison may be  Black Panther or GoTG 2.

[Legion Again]

47 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Brother comparison with Infinity War seems bit odd. Best comparison may be  Black Panther or GoTG 2.

It’s because the length of the presale window for CM is so long. 13 days after for BP or GotG2 is too close to release for comps to make any sense, but 46 days before BP and GotG2 didn’t even have tickets available. When we get closer the other movies will be reintroduced as N days before comps.

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-45 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	8140	10614*	23.07%

*NOTE: A couple of theaters adjusted their blacked-out/unavailable seats in both directions, resulting in a net increase of six available seats

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              27

 

.3834x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 14 days of pre-sales.

.5307x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 41 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day 14 Comp:

 

IW:        89 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4673/11125 seats left  | 58.00% sold] 

Edited January 23, 2019 by Porthos

[poweranimals]

Was BOM hacked or something? I noticed a lot of the numbers say "N/A". Like Friday for "Glass" even though it was normal before.

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-44 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	8083	10614	23.85%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              57

 

.3880x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 15 days of pre-sales.

.5429x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 41 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day 15 Comp:

 

IW:        70 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4603/11125 seats left  | 58.62% sold] 

 

====

 

Looks to me that there was a minor Oscars announcement bounce for Captain Marvel today.  Don't know if it was just a local bounce, or if it got a minor bounce nationwide on places like Fandango.

Edited January 24, 2019 by Porthos

[TMP]

I know it’s extremely early, but what vicinity is Capt. Marvel looking at roughly for opening weekend @Porthos?