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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, TMP said:

I know it’s extremely early, but what vicinity is Capt. Marvel looking at roughly for opening weekend @Porthos?

I'm never really good at these things.   I know that @TalismanRing was eyeballing between Thor: Ragnarok  (122.7m) and GOTG2 (146.5m) as a range she thought might be likely with the data we have at the moment. 

 

Really it is too soon to really tell.  I personally think a 150 OW is possible (and I joined the club on that), but that's more gut instinct than a hard indication from the numbers.

 

They're definitely not AM&TW/Venom level preview numbers, I'll put it that way.  

 

Hmmm..  Lemme raise up @Deep Wang and see if he can give some penetrating insight or not. :)

Edited by Porthos
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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted (edited) 
Fandango

(previous data under spoiler cut)

 

 

Spoiler

 

Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday
         
A Wrinke In Time   4,864   15,601
A Quiet Place 2,177 4,003 10,665  
Blockers  504 1,106 2,931  
Rampage 705 1,508 4,109  
Truth Or Dare 385 760 2,133  
Super Troopers 2,825 3,447 6,881  
I Feel Pretty 871 1,610 4,423  
Avengers: Infinity War 49,836 54,892 68,826 206,000
Overboard 84 409 1,044  
Breaking In 727 1204 2,899  
Life Of The Party 587 1,310 3,010  
Deadpool 2 23,134 28,896 41,212  
Show Dogs 6 128 369  
Book Club 836 1,599 3,283  
SW: Solo 13,688 15,855 28,533  
Action Point  17 48 197  
Upgrade  9 119 522  
Adrift 63 308 1,268  
Oceans 8 3,009 4,372 11,114  
Hereditary 659 1,178 3,181  
Hotel Artemis 26 166 520  
Incredibles 2 20,872 23,430 39,337  
Tag 314 660 1,448  
Jurassic World 2 9,310 12,761 23,266  
Sicario 2 788 1282 3,403  
Uncle Drew 274 473 1,201  
Antman & The Wasp  6,613 5,990 11,108  
Purge (Wed) 2,885 8,308    
Hotel Transylvania 3 1,753 2,674 6,605 14,754
Skyscraper 586 1,019 2,868 7,134
Mamma Mia 2 4,427 5,099 12,117 17,226
Equalizer 1,418 2,297 6,073 11,875
Unfriended   71 240 975
MI6   *3328 13,575 27,261
Teen Titans   *462 2,125 4,526
Christopher Robin 1,560 2,442 5,355 11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me 234 542 1,561 4,222
The Darkest Minds 130 244 579 1,777
Eighth Grade 494 508 720 936
Death of A Nation 148 194 375 1,239
The Meg 1,539 2,944 6,723 16,202
Slender Man 177 418 1,091 3,737
BlackkKlansman  432 682 1,934 5,017
Dog Days (Wed) 115 631 1,536 1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed) 3,651 5,742 20,173 20,102
Alpha 181 283 943 2,069
Mile 22 282 519 1,833 5,200
Happytime Murders 382 *488 1,954 5,602
A.X.L. 32 *60 310 911
Kin 21 141 263 741
Operation Finale (Wed) 415 2,083 4,879 3,915
Searching (1k expansion) 303 588 1,194 2,862
The Nun 2,082 5,938 13,806 28,881
Peppermint  286 863 2,508 4,441
God Bless The Broken Road 6 33 152 282
Predator 1,295 2,476 4,545 13,063
A Simple Favor 564 2,126 4,410 10,381
White Boy Rick 136 567 1,458 4,587
Unbroken 2 88 180 360 659
House With Clocks 897 1469 3607 8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9 164 281 713 1,715
Life Itself 79 162 394 953
Assassination Nation   36 94 382
Night School 1,045 1,756 3,566  
Small Foot 734 1,261 2,448  
Hellfest 195 304 661  
Little Women   65 134  
Venom 13,602 13,818 20,867 31,569
A Star Is Born 9,115 11,383 22,641 21,501
First Man 654 909 3,610 7,586
Goosebumps 2 300 631 1,733 3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale 264 481 1,257 3,350
Halloween 9,563 12,980 21,600 36,126
The Hate U Give (2k expansion) 1,026 1,542 1,559 2,055
Hunter Killer 91 368 1,062 2,726
Indivisible 33 89 204 440
Bohemian Rhapsody 7,255 9,026 12,546 26,476
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms 1,659 1,949 2,567 5,518
Nobody's Fool 436 900 1,719 4,437
Grinch 3,580 4,860 10,092 17,046
Girl In The Spider's Web 286 691 1,735 3,554
Overlord 299 605 1,599 4,522
Fantastic Beasts 2 8,956 14,238 21,861 31,880
Widows 310 868 2,219 4,179
Instant Family 230 565 1,325 2,584
Creed II (Wed) 7,005 12,131 15,354 15,559
Ralph 2 (Wed) 6,712 12,083 19,183 15,870
Robin Hood (Wed) 1,602 1846 2,621 2,632
Green Book (1k exp) 387 922 89 2,268
Spider-Verse 3,715 5,208 9,858 3,475
Mortal Engines 465 785 1,504 6,235
The Mule 791 1,779 3,882 19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (wed) 1,732 3,402 3,621 2,310
Mary Poppins Returns (Wed) 7,713 9,137 16,304 11,857
Aquaman 8,502 9,671 15,063 25,201
Bumblebee 1,553 1,817 3,157 6,056
Second Act 353 611 1,146 1,915
Welcome To Marwen 299 403 658 928
Escape Room 111 368 1,543 7,297
A Dogs Way Home 259 623 1,560 3,257
On the Basis of Sex (2k expand) 537 1,043 2,275 3,511
The Upside 394 1,431 3,769 6,602
Replicas 21 133 352 1,002
Glass 3,106 3,978 6,478  
The Kid Who Would be King 107 318    
Serenity 6 128    

 

 

Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday
The Kid Who Would be King 107 318    
Serenity 6 128    
Edited by TalismanRing
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Alli Blockbuster

Alli

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, TalismanRing said: 

Fandango

(previous data under spoiler cut)

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday
The Kid Who Would be King 107 318    
Serenity 6 128    

shit. i don't think The Kid manages 10M...:sweat:

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Deep Wang Global Phenomenon

Deep Wang

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Porthos said:

I'm never really good at these things.   I know that @TalismanRing was eyeballing between Thor: Ragnarok  (122.7m) and GOTG2 (146.5m) as a range she thought might be likely with the data we have at the moment. 

 

Really it is too soon to really tell.  I personally think a 150 OW is possible (and I joined the club on that), but that's more gut instinct than a hard indication from the numbers.

 

They're definitely not AM&TW/Venom level preview numbers, I'll put it that way.  

 

Hmmm..  Lemme raise up @Deep Wang and see if he can give some penetrating insight or not. :)

Oh man, lol.  I'm not an expert!

 

I just think that the initial burst of presales for CM was way higher than I expected.  It was only trailing BP by like a couple hundred thousand dollars, which is insane!  That doesn't mean it's going to hit 200m, far from it likely as that lead from BP is likely to grow.  Not only that, but each year more and more people start to buy their tickets early, so that just makes things more confusing.  Probably at least partially due to more and more recliners in theaters and less space so presales become required at those theaters.

 

I don't know what it will make, hopefully I can get a new batch of numbers tomorrow and we'll have a better idea of how it's holding up.  After 3 days it was at like 1.8m or so, after another two weeks I'd like to see it have it 3m at least.  That would seem pretty good to me I guess.

 

 

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 1/17/2019 at 9:39 AM, WrathOfHan said:

Ben Is Back, Dr. Seuss' The Grinch, Holmes and Watson, and Mary Queen of Scots are gone.

 

Glass: 13 (IMAX, Dolby, Biggest, and Smallest x0.2)

Canal Street: 5 (Average)

Dragon Ball Super: Broly: 4 (Below Average)

Green Book: 2 (Return; Smallest x0.4)

Creed II: 1 (Return; Below Average x0.25)

 

A Dog's Way Home: 5 (Flat; Biggest)

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse: 5 (Flat; Above Average)

The Upside: 5 (Flat; Biggest and Below Average x0.25)

Aquaman: 4 (Down 4; Biggest)

Bumblebee: 4 (Down 1; Average)

Escape Room: 4 (Down 1; Above Average)

The Favourite: 4 (Flat; Smallest)

If Beale Street Could Talk: 4 (Flat; Smallest)

The Mule: 4 (Flat; Smallest)

On the Basis of Sex: 4 (Down 1; Average)

Vice: 4 (Flat; Smallest)

Bohemian Rhapsody: 2 (Flat; Below Average x0.5)

Ralph Breaks the Internet: 2 (Down 3; Smallest x0.4)

A Star Is Born: 2 (Down 2; Smallest x0.4)

Replicas: 1 (Down 4; Smallest x0.2)

Second Act: 1 (Down 1; Smallest x0.2)

 

During the weekend, Glass steals shows from a lot of movies.

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

  Hide contents

 

IMAX: 372 seats

Dolby: 236 seats

Biggest: 104-107 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Above Average: 77 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Average: 67-70 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Below Average: 51-54 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Smallest: 40 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

 

 

Creed II, The Mule, Second Act, and Replicas are gone.

 

The Kid Who Would Be King: 5 (Below Average and Smallest x0.25)

Serenity: 5 (Average)

 

Glass: 12 (Down 1; IMAX, Dolby, and Biggest)

Canal Street: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

A Dog's Way Home: 5 (Flat; Biggest)

Dragon Ball Super: Broly: 5 (Up 1; Biggest)

Escape Room: 5 (Up 1; Below Average)

Aquaman: 4 (Flat; Biggest)

Bumblebee: 4 (Flat; Average)

If Beale Street Could Talk: 4 (Flat; Smallest)

Mary Poppins Returns: 4 (Flat; Average)

On the Basis of Sex: 4 (Flat; Average)

The Upside: 4 (Down 1; Above Average)

Vice: 4 (Flat; Smallest)

Green Book: 3 (Up 1; Smallest x0.75)

Ralph Breaks the Internet: 3 (Up 1; Smallest x0.6)

Bohemian Rhapsody: 2 (Flat; Smallest x0.5)

The Favourite: 2 (Down 2; Smallest x0.5)

A Star Is Born: 2 (Flat; Smallest x0.4)

 

During the weekend, Kid has one of the biggest auditoriums.

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

Spoiler

IMAX: 372 seats

Dolby: 236 seats

Biggest: 104-107 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Above Average: 77 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Average: 67-70 seats (4 auditoriums are this size)

Below Average: 51-54 seats (2 auditoriums are this size)

Smallest: 40 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

 

 

Edited by WrathOfHan
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-43 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

81

8066

10614

24.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              17

 

.3863x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 16 days of pre-sales.

.5465x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 41 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day 16 Comp:

 

IW:        74 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4529/11125 seats left  | 59.29% sold] 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
Just now, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-43 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

81

8066

10614

24.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              17

====

 

crumbling2.jpg&key=d365be3dc63479e2e8663

Spoiler

Obligatory gif is...

Spoiler

Mandatory. ;)

Spoiler

Crumbling. O.o

 

 

 

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Napoleon Summer Tentpole

Napoleon

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Curtis1986 said:

Is there any tracking on what men want. Have a feeling it will be anoyher Girls Trip.

What Men Want, a twist on the Mel Gibson 2000 comedy What Women Want, is looking at a three-day around $20M. Pic, which stars Taraji P. Henson as a sports agent who develops the gift to hear men’s thoughts, is slotting ahead of Uncle Drew, Nobody’s Fool and one digit above Girls Trip in unaided awareness. 

 

https://deadline.com/2019/01/the-lego-movie-2-what-men-want-box-office-projection-taraji-p-henson-1202536822/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

I hope it's a big hit for Taraji, she's amazing.

Edited by Napoleon
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Deep Wang Global Phenomenon

Deep Wang

Posted
Posted

Hm...

 

KWWBK - 66k

S - 31k

 

MB - 23k

 

WMW - 21k

 

HTTYD - 40k

 

CM - 2.5m

 

As I stated before, I was hoping for about 3m for CM, but it fell short.  We know that's the trend, sales slow down like this especially with a 2 month window.  Though to be fair 700k in a two week span six weeks from release is still A LOT.  More than most movies to in presales period!  If it only does 350k/ week until release, it will end between It and SMH in presales, and we know it's not going to stop there.

 

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mredblood Straight-to-DVD

mredblood

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Hm...

 

KWWBK - 66k

S - 31k

 

MB - 23k

 

WMW - 21k

 

HTTYD - 40k

 

CM - 2.5m

 

As I stated before, I was hoping for about 3m for CM, but it fell short.  We know that's the trend, sales slow down like this especially with a 2 month window.  Though to be fair 700k in a two week span six weeks from release is still A LOT.  More than most movies to in presales period!  If it only does 350k/ week until release, it will end between It and SMH in presales, and we know it's not going to stop there.

 

What about Lego movie part 2

 

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Eric Loves Rey Global Phenomenon

Eric Loves Rey

Posted
Posted

DO NOT QUOTE

 

Spoiler

Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday
         
A Wrinkle In Time   4,864   15,601
A Quiet Place 2,177 4,003 10,665  
Blockers 504 1,106 2,931  
Rampage 705 1,508 4,109  
Truth Or Dare 385 760 2,133  
Super Troopers 2,825 3,447 6,881  
I Feel Pretty 871 1,610 4,423  
Avengers: Infinity War 49,836 54,892 68,826 206,000
Overboard 84 409 1,044  
Breaking In 727 1204 2,899  
Life Of The Party 587 1,310 3,010  
Deadpool 2 23,134 28,896 41,212  
Show Dogs 6 128 369  
Book Club 836 1,599 3,283  
SW: Solo 13,688 15,855 28,533  
Action Point 17 48 197  
Upgrade 9 119 522  
Adrift 63 308 1,268  
Oceans 8 3,009 4,372 11,114  
Hereditary 659 1,178 3,181  
Hotel Artemis 26 166 520  
Incredibles 2 20,872 23,430 39,337  
Tag 314 660 1,448  
Jurassic World 2 9,310 12,761 23,266  
Sicario 2 788 1,282 3,403  
Uncle Drew 274 473 1,201  
Antman & The Wasp 6,613 5,990 11,108  
Purge (Wed) 2,885 8,308    
Hotel Transylvania 3 1,753 2,674 6,605 14,754
Skyscraper 586 1,019 2,868 7,134
Mamma Mia 2 4,427 5,099 12,117 17,226
Equalizer 1,418 2,297 6,073 11,875
Unfriended   71 240 975
MI6   *3328 13,575 27,261
Teen Titans   *462 2,125 4,526
Christopher Robin 1,560 2,442 5,355 11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me 234 542 1,561 4,222
The Darkest Minds 130 244 579 1,777
Eighth Grade (1K expansion) 494 508 720 936
Death of A Nation 148 194 375 1,239
The Meg 1,539 2,944 6,723 16,202
Slender Man 177 418 1,091 3,737
BlackkKlansman 432 682 1,934 5,017
Dog Days (Wed) 115 631 1,536 1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed) 3,651 5,742 20,173 20,102
Alpha 181 283 943 2,069
Mile 22 282 519 1,833 5,200
Happytime Murders 382 *488 1,954 5,602
A.X.L. 32 *60 310 911
Kin 21 141 263 741
Operation Finale (Wed) 415 2,083 4,879 3,915
Searching (1K expansion) 303 588 1,194 2,862
The Nun 2,082 5,938 13,806 28,881
Peppermint 286 863 2,508 4,441
God Bless The Broken Road 6 33 152 282
Predator 1,295 2,476 4,545 13,063
A Simple Favor 564 2,126 4,410 10,381
White Boy Rick 136 567 1,458 4,587
Unbroken 2 88 180 360 659
House With Clocks 897 1,469 3,607 8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9 164 281 713 1,715
Life Itself 79 162 394 953
Assassination Nation   36 94 382
Night School 1,045 1,756 3,566  
Smallfoot 734 1,261 2,448  
Hellfest 195 304 661  
Little Women   65 134  
Venom 13,602 13,818 20,867 31,569
A Star Is Born 9,115 11,383 22,641 21,501
First Man 654 909 3,610 7,586
Goosebumps 2 300 631 1,733 3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale 264 481 1,257 3,350
Halloween 9,563 12,890 21,600 36,126
The Hate U Give (2K expansion) 1,026 1,542 1,559 2,055
Hunter Killer 91 368 1,062 2,726
Indivisible 33 89 204 440
Bohemian Rhapsody 7,255 9,026 12,546 26,476
Nutcracker 1,659 1,949 2,567 5,518
Nobody's Fool 436 900 1,719 4,437
The Grinch 3,580 4,860 10,092 17,046
Spider's Web 286 718 1,735 3,554
Overlord 299 604 1,599 4,522
Fantastic Beasts 8,956 14,238 21,861 31,880
Widows 310 868 2,219 4,179
Instant Family 230 565 1,325 2,584
Ralph 2 (Wed) 7,005 12,131 19,183 15,559
Creed II (Wed) 6,712 12,083 15,354 15,870
Robin Hood (Wed) 1,602 1,846 2,621 2,632
Green Book (Wed) (1K expansion) 387 922 1,701 2,268
Possession of Hannah Grace 105 285 893 3,053
Mortal Engines 465 785 1,504 3,475
The Mule 791 1,779 3,882 6,235
Spider-Verse 3,715 5,208 9,858 19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (Wed) 1,732 3,402 3,621 2,310
Mary Poppins (Wed) 7,713 9,137 16,304  
Aquaman 8,502 9,671 15,063  
Bumblebee 1,553 1,817 3,157  
Second Act 353 611 1,204  
Marwen 299 403 658  
Escape Room 111 368 1,543 7,297
Dogs Way Home 259 623 1,516 3,257
On the Basis (2K expansion) 537 1,043 2,200 3,511
Replicas 21 133 336 1,002
Upside 394 1,431 3,669 8,602
Glass 3,106 3,978 6,478 17,810
Kid Who Would Be King 107 318 980  
Serenity 6 128 1,074  
*4pm-12am        

 

Kid Who Would Be King 107 318 980
Serenity 6 128 1,074

 

 

Don't know if Serenity outpacing King is a good sign for the former or a bad one for the latter.

 

Lego 2 Early 0 43 899

Lego 2 Reg 20 74 178

Dragon 3 Early 784 993 1,212

Dragon 3 73 92 134

Captain Marvel 485 675 673
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Eric Loves Rey Global Phenomenon

Eric Loves Rey

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Is Jordan Peele's US still doing presales? I know the date change screwed things up a bit. 

Yeah. It's consistently sold somewhere in the teens each day this week on Pulse, although last week only saw single digits. It's much more of a slow-burner compared to the other movies for obvious reasons.

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

Well, that's the thing.  The number is so low that I had to double check to see if tickets were on sale.  I compared it to WMW and WMW returned more theaters.

 

So, I don't know what's up.

 

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