The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[el sid]

Pulse yesterday always 10:35-10:49 EST:
Serenity: 20/15 minutes
TKWWbK: 17/15

Pulse today always 8:35-8:49 EST:
Serenity: 23/15 minutes - The Girl in the Spider's Web had 32/15 at that time
TKWWbK: 16/15 - Mortal Engines had also only 17/15 at that time

And Pulse today always 10:35-10:49 EST:
Serenity: 31/15 minutes - Replicas had 6/15 at that time, Spider's Web had 42/14, Serenity had better daily jumps than Spider's Web so it could land in the same range
TKWWbK: 19/15 (25/15 at 10:50-11:04) - not good, even ME had 33/15 at that time

[Alli]

1 minute ago, el sid said:

Pulse yesterday always 10:35-10:49 EST:
Serenity: 20/15 minutes
TKWWbK: 17/15

Pulse today always 8:35-8:49 EST:
Serenity: 23/15 minutes - The Girl in the Spider's Web had 32/15 at that time
TKWWbK: 16/15 - Mortal Engines had also only 17/15 at that time

And Pulse today always 10:35-10:49 EST:
Serenity: 31/15 minutes - Replicas had 6/15 at that time, Spider's Web had 42/14, Serenity had better daily jumps than Spider's Web so it could land in the same range
TKWWbK: 19/15 (25/15 at 10:50-11:04) - not good, even ME had 33/15 at that time

grrrrr....The Kid is DOA

[MrGlass2]

MT
2019-01-25 03:00:31.698228 UTC
1	16.4%	Glass
2	10.4%	The Upside
3	5.5%	Dragon Ball Super: Broly
4	5.1%	Aquaman
5	4.5%	Green Book

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-01-23 22:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	16.633%	9249	Glass (2019)
2	10.047%	5587	The Upside
3	07.375%	4101	Dragon Ball Super Broly
4	04.771%	2653	Aquaman
5	04.597%	2556	Serenity (2019)
6	04.395%	2444	Green Book
7	04.122%	2292	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
8	03.232%	1797	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part Early Access Screenings
9	03.063%	1703	The Kid Who Would Be King
10	02.874%	1598	On the Basis of Sex

Nothing to challenge Glass this weekend.

Oscar bump for Green Book?

 

[Nova]

I’m confused about The Kid Who Could Be King. It’s getting pretty good reviews and yet got dumped at the end of January. 

[filmlover]

19 minutes ago, Nova said:

I’m confused about The Kid Who Could Be King. It’s getting pretty good reviews and yet got dumped at the end of January. 

I think its appeal is just limited. It should have a very nice afterlife on home video though.

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-42 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	8044	10614	24.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              22

 

.3859x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 17 days of pre-sales.

.5513x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 41 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day 17 Comp:

 

IW:        64 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4465/11125 seats left  | 59.87% sold] 

[Porthos]

Outside of that blip from the Oscars, we're obviously in the 'long tail' for Captain Marvel pre-sales and probably will be for another two weeks or so before it starts to slowly pick back up again at the three weeks away marker.

 

As such, I might shift to a two-a-week update schedule in this thread, so I don't clog it with dripdripdrip numbers.  I'd still collect the dallies for my home-sheet of course, if only for historical records.

 

Still, if folks don't mind seeing the dripdripdrip of updates in this thread, I'll be happy to provide them as I'll already be collating the data.  Just don't expect very significant changes over the next 14 days or so.

Edited January 25, 2019 by Porthos

[el sid]

MT update with one new entry:

#1 Glass 15.6%
#2 The Upside 10.3%
#3 Aquaman 5.1%
#4 The Kid Who Would be King 5.1%
#5 Green Book 4.9%

And Pulse always 8:35-8:49 EST, here too the new releases changed places:
TKWWbK: 66/15 minutes - at least a nice jump compared to only 16 tickets yesterday at the same time
Serenity: 43/15 - yesterday 23/15, Spider's Web had 75/11 minutes same day and daytime, Replicas 20/15 but hours later

Edited January 25, 2019 by el sid

[Eric the Fall Guy]

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-jordan-peeles-us/

 

Us: 35-55M range. 42/135

 

Miss Bala: 7.5/21 (-17%)

 

Cold Pursuit: 12 (-8%) /37.5 (-6%)

Lego Movie 2: 55/186.5 (-7%)

 

Isn't It Romantic: 15 (+7%) /57 (+6%)

 

Captain Marvel: 160 (no change)/440 (-5%)

[PenguinHyphy]

3 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-jordan-peeles-us/

 

Us: 35-55M range. 42/135

 

Miss Bala: 7.5/21 (-17%)

 

Cold Pursuit: 12 (-8%) /37.5 (-6%)

Lego Movie 2: 55/186.5 (-7%)

 

Isn't It Romantic: 15 (+7%) /57 (+6%)

 

Captain Marvel: 160 (no change)/440 (-5%)

All of the pros, especially the really high Trailer Impact Survey, for Us are really great. The only cons listed are that they have to wait for the reviews. The movie is going to be really big assuming that reviews are great. 

[RealLyre]

5 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-jordan-peeles-us/

 

Us: 35-55M range. 42/135

 

Miss Bala: 7.5/21 (-17%)

 

Cold Pursuit: 12 (-8%) /37.5 (-6%)

Lego Movie 2: 55/186.5 (-7%)

 

Isn't It Romantic: 15 (+7%) /57 (+6%)

 

Captain Marvel: 160 (no change)/440 (-5%)

these Alita predictions 

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-41 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	8018	10614	24.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              26

 

.3860x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 18 days of pre-sales.

.5568x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 41 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day 18 Comp:

 

IW:        65 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4400/11125 seats left  | 60.45% sold] 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Porthos

[TimmyRiggins]

10 hours ago, RealLyre said:

these Alita predictions 

Those numbers are completely off. The film will easily blow past some of those predictions. 

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Those numbers are completely off. The film will easily blow past some of those predictions. 

BOP is usually close with opening weekend predictions. In fact, blockbusters and big budget movies almost always open lower than their predictions since Black Panther massively overperformed.

[Valonqar]

Us is going to blow past that higher OW prediction (55M). 

Edited January 26, 2019 by Valonqar

[Porthos]

Alita: Battle Angel showtimes just started showing up over in Sacramento.  Only four theaters at the moment though.  As I look at the ak tracker, looks like some theaters have been putting up their slates, as A:BA has sold 27 tickets over the last week or so.

 

As I just said in the motherthread for A:BA, I figure an announcement for pre-sales on it is gonna happen any day now.

Edited January 27, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-40 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	7999	10614	24.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              19

 

.3842x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 19 days of pre-sales.

.5026x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 40 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day 19 Comp:

 

IW:        82 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4318/11125 seats left  | 61.19% sold] 

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-39 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	7982	10614	24.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              17

 

.3832x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after 20 days of pre-sales.

.4814x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 39 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

Day 20 Comp:

 

IW:        62 tickets sold [1 sellout/116 showings |   4256/11125 seats left  | 61.74% sold] 

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-38 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	7973	10614	24.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                  9

 

.4664x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 38 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

===

 

At this point in its pre-sales Infinity War was three weeks away from release, and already picking up steam.  So any day-to-day comparisons are worse than useless, much like they were for the other films I was tracking at the three week away marker.  But it's still too close to when tickets first went on sale for it to be a good comparison in the other direction, either (IW had four days of ticket sales when it was 38 days from release).

 

I plan on re-introducing the comparative tickets sold on the equivalent day this Saturday (33 days before release).  

 

I'll probably just keep sticking out the daily reports, as I expect CM to start picking back up post-Super Bowl if there is some sort of promo aired during it. Then again, if I get too many more days like today I'll just say screw it and go to my threatened two-a-week update schedule until the ticket sales make it worth this thread's while.  As always, playing it by ear.

[Stewart]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-38 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	81	7973	10614	24.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                  9

 

.4664x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 38 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

 

===

 

At this point in its pre-sales Infinity War was three weeks away from release, and already picking up steam.  So any day-to-day comparisons are worse than useless, much like they were for the other films I was tracking at the three week away marker.  But it's still too close to when tickets first went on sale for it to be a good comparison in the other direction, either (IW had four days of ticket sales when it was 38 days from release).

 

I plan on re-introducing the comparative tickets sold on the equivalent day this Saturday (33 days before release).  

 

I'll probably just keep sticking out the daily reports, as I expect CM to start picking back up post-Super Bowl if there is some sort of promo aired during it. Then again, if I get too many more days like today I'll just say screw it and go to my threatened two-a-week update schedule until the ticket sales make it worth this thread's while.  As always, playing it by ear.

I've just got to say, personally I'd like it if you kept doing daily posts (especially if you're collecting the data anyway).

 

When I wake up every morning your post is in my inbox and honestly has become part of my morning routine to read it