The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

CM would have a better internal multiplier than AIW in that it's preview numbers would likely be half the size and it's still an original movie and one aimed a bit more toward women. 

 

So while it may do $18-19m in previews it's multi should more likely be 8+ than 6.6.  Even CW and AOU with 25 and 27m previews did 7+ . 

 

GOTG2 did around 8.5.   $18-19m in previews with an 8- 8.5 internal multi would yield a $144m- $161.5m o/w

so it seems that box office pro projections could be true 160 ow and 450 final personally i hope it touches 500 million dom but we will see so far so good .Also any prediction about what box office will predict for endgame they will track it this week 

Edited February 25, 2019 by john2000

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

CM would have a better internal multiplier than AIW in that it's preview numbers would likely be half the size and it's still an original movie and one aimed a bit more toward women. 

 

So while it may do $18-19m in previews it's multi should more likely be 8+ than 6.6.  Even CW and AOU with 25 and 27m previews did 7+ . 

 

GOTG2 did around 8.5.   $18-19m in previews with an 8- 8.5 internal multi would yield a $144m- $161.5m o/w

See, I think AIW is the most on point vs "an original movie"...

 

You have the Endgame set up plus the female super as the 2 main audience draws...

 

The Endgame set up audience is there day 1, hour 1, minute 1...they've waited a long time...they have their tickets or will have them...

 

And the female super draw is also a prebuyer...whether it's that weekend or Wednesday night for Moms Night Out, they are gonna have tickets in hand (whether hours or days before) before they set foot in the theater...

 

So, since both main draws for the movie are normal pre-buyers, I think this plays more like AIW in a "what movie are presales gonna be most on point for predicting an ending OW number"...

 

I could be wrong...WW made $103M, but kicked in an enormous leg figure, probably partly due to WOM reaching formerly burned DC fans and skeptical fans...I think the AIW audience build up inflates that, since it doesn't have to get over bad preceding movies, but that build up should be seen in prebuys...

 

I used to be feeling enormous numbers for this movie after AIW...but the ads haven't been so spectacular that I think time hasn't slightly eroded some of that feeling I had...$118M seems like it's not out of the realm of the possible...and I don't know that $150M+ is in it without amazing reviews and early weekend WOM...if you gave me a coin to flip right now, I'd take the under (which is why I have a casino bet for it:)...but what I'll definitely take is the ending ratio of AIW presales to CM presales and do the Math to get my final guess:)...

Edited February 25, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Porthos]

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-02-24 18:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	25.931%	5496	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
2	12.347%	2617	Captain Marvel (2019)
3	07.992%	1694	Alita Battle Angel
4	05.789%	1227	Green Book
5	05.610%	1189	Fighting with My Family
6	04.577%	970	Isnt It Romantic
7	04.232%	897	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part
8	03.855%	817	Captain Marvel
9	03.619%	767	Tyler Perrys A Madea Family Funeral
10	03.213%	681	What Men Want

  

[Porthos]

I mean, the overall number may not be that great (though, consider, still 10 days out) (also, I actually don't know how  strong of a 24 hour # that us)

 

And the competition outside of HTTYD3 is pretty damn weak.

 

Still, for it to be taking Slot #2 when it most of Sunday is still in that rolling tracker ain't a bad sign at all.

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-02-24 18:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	25.931%	5496	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
2	12.347%	2617	Captain Marvel (2019)
3	07.992%	1694	Alita Battle Angel
4	05.789%	1227	Green Book
5	05.610%	1189	Fighting with My Family
6	04.577%	970	Isnt It Romantic
7	04.232%	897	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part
8	03.855%	817	Captain Marvel
9	03.619%	767	Tyler Perrys A Madea Family Funeral
10	03.213%	681	What Men Want

  

 

Just what I was hoping for!

 

Assuming it stays top 5 Mon-Fri this week, how many consecutive weekdays would that be?  Did it make it Mon-Fri last week?

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

I mean, the overall number may not be that great (though, consider, still 10 days out) (also, I actually don't know how  strong of a 24 hour # that us)

 

And the competition outside of HTTYD3 is pretty damn weak.

 

Still, for it to be taking Slot #2 when it most of Sunday is still in that rolling tracker ain't a bad sign at all.

Funny enough, the 24 hour tracker resets at midnight Monday every week so we still have some hours of data to collect here.

Edited February 26, 2019 by The Fast and the Furiosa

[ThomasNicole]

CM presales is looking good for around $ 20M

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

Funny enough, the 24 hour tracker resets at midnight Monday every week so we still have some hours of data to collect here.

it's the hourly tracker that resets weekly.  As far as I know, the 24 hour tracker is a true rolling tracker in that it resets every hour (though I don't know when it exactly turns over on the hour)

 

For instance it now says "since 20:00" instead of "since 18:00":

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-02-24 20:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	25.794%	7606	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
2	11.859%	3497	Captain Marvel (2019)
3	08.441%	2489	Alita Battle Angel
4	05.484%	1617	Fighting with My Family
5	05.460%	1610	Green Book
6	04.615%	1361	Isnt It Romantic
7	04.005%	1181	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part
8	03.761%	1109	Captain Marvel
9	03.696%	1090	Tyler Perrys A Madea Family Funeral
10	03.476%	1025	What Men Want

 

Now that's a much stronger number, IMO.  And a sign that CM is starting to gather steam.

Edited February 26, 2019 by Porthos

[poweranimals]

Captain Marvel is also In the top 5 on MT.com:

 

2019-02-26 06:00:33.457740 UTC

1 30.2% How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

2 9.4% Captain Marvel

3 6.4% Green Book

4 6.3% Alita: Battle Angel

5 5.1% Fighting with My Family

[Eric Prime]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Truth Or Dare

385

760

2,133

I Feel Pretty

871

1,610

4,423

Breaking In

727

1,204

2,899

Book Club

836

1,599

3,283

Hereditary

659

1,178

3,181

Unfriended

71

240

975

Happytime Murders

382

*488

1,954

5,602

Night School

1,045

1,756

3,566

Hellfest

195

304

661

Bad Times at the El Royale

264

481

1,257

3,350

Nobody's Fool

436

900

1,719

4,437

Overlord

299

604

1,599

4,522

Possession of Hannah Grace

105

285

893

3,053

Second Act

353

611

1,204

What Men Want

1,383

2,505

5,405

9,328

The Prodigy

161

359

847

2,288

Madea Family Funeral	1,587
Greta	120
*4pm-12am

 

See the full list here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/edit#gid=209330330

 

Madea Comps:

182% of I Feel Pretty (29.2M)

218% of Breaking In (38.5M)

190% of Book Club (25.8M)

415% of Happytime Murders (39.6M)

152% of Night School (41.4M)

364% of Nobody's Fool (50M)

450% of Second Act (29.2M)

115% of What Men Want (20.9M)

 

Greta Comps:

31% of Truth or Dare (5.8M)

18% of Hereditary (2.5M)

61% of Hell Fest (3.2M)

45% of Bad Times at the El Royale (3.2M)

40% of Overlord (4.1M)

114% of Hannah Grace (7.3M)

74% of The Prodigy (4.4M)

 

I'll look into explanations  and my own thoughts tomorrow morning. I'm way too tired to write anymore.

 

Movie/Date	Monday
Captain Marvel	6,647
	11 days
Us	148
	25 days

 

 

I'll also look at this tonorrow morning  as well. But hey, the link above does have some historical data, so go nuts.

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	94	7555	11768	35.80%

 

Total Showings Added Today:        7

Total Seats Added Today:           838

Total Seats Sold Today:              128

 

1.1991x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]*

.4741x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.3000x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.0959x as many tickets sold as Solo 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

2.2701x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.1071x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town as well as the stat bloc for Captain Marvel without the extra theatre tracking info.

 

Day T-10 Comp:

 

BP:              71 tickets sold [1 sellout/69 showings     |    3696/6850 seats left  | 46.04% sold]

IW:            105 tickets sold [4 sellouts/120 showings |   3650/11628 seats left  | 68.61% sold]

DP2:          101 tickets sold [0 sellouts/106 showings |  10227/13136 seats left | 22.15% sold]

Solo:           47 tickets sold [1 sellout/88 showings     |     5935/9386 seats left  | 36.77% sold]

JW2:            60 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings   |   8447/10113 seats left  | 16.47% sold]

FB2:          105 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings  |  11500/13377 seats left  | 14.02% sold]

CM (adj)*: 106 tickets sold [2 sellouts/94 showings   |   6521/10303 seats left   | 36.71% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

====

 

Further BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

Spoiler

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	88	5971	9325	35.97%

 

Total Showings Added Today:        7

Total Seats Added Today:           838

Total Seats Sold Today:              100

 

1.0634x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	94	6521	10303	36.71%

 

Total Showings Added Today:        7

Total Seats Added Today:           838

Total Seats Sold Today:              106

 

1.1991x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

Edited February 26, 2019 by Porthos

[fabiopazzo2]

2019-02-26 14:00:27.034212 UTC
1	29%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	8.7%	Captain Marvel
3	6.3%	Green Book
4	5.8%	Alita: Battle Angel
5	5.1%	Fighting with My Family

 

 

[Eric Prime]

Alright, now I'm awake.

 

Madea's a tough comp, because I don't have any good comedy sequels, or ones from established franchises, to work off of. But I guess considering What Men Want was a remake to a popular movie, I guess low 20s is gonna happen?

 

As for Captain Marvel,

 

From Day 17-Day 11

.343x of Black Panther

 

Translates to $83M using BP's 4-Day, an improvement from the $79.6M from two days ago

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Alright, now I'm awake.

 

Madea's a tough comp, because I don't have any good comedy sequels, or ones from established franchises, to work off of. But I guess considering What Men Want was a remake to a popular movie, I guess low 20s is gonna happen?

 

As for Captain Marvel,

 

From Day 17-Day 11

.343x of Black Panther

 

Translates to $83M using BP's 4-Day, an improvement from the $79.6M from two days ago

man it keeps getting better for the movie 

[FlashMaster659]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	94	7555	11768	35.80%

 

Total Showings Added Today:        7

Total Seats Added Today:           838

Total Seats Sold Today:              128

 

1.1991x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]*

.4741x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.3000x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.0959x as many tickets sold as Solo 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

2.2701x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

2.1071x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town as well as the stat bloc for Captain Marvel without the extra theatre tracking info.

 

Day T-10 Comp:

 

BP:              71 tickets sold [1 sellout/69 showings     |    3696/6850 seats left  | 46.04% sold]

IW:            105 tickets sold [4 sellouts/120 showings |   3650/11628 seats left  | 68.61% sold]

DP2:          101 tickets sold [0 sellouts/106 showings |  10227/13136 seats left | 22.15% sold]

Solo:           47 tickets sold [1 sellout/88 showings     |     5935/9386 seats left  | 36.77% sold]

JW2:            60 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings   |   8447/10113 seats left  | 16.47% sold]

FB2:          105 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/94 showings  |  11500/13377 seats left  | 14.02% sold]

CM (adj)*: 106 tickets sold [2 sellouts/94 showings   |   6521/10303 seats left   | 36.71% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

====

 

Further BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	88	5971	9325	35.97%

 

Total Showings Added Today:        7

Total Seats Added Today:           838

Total Seats Sold Today:              100

 

1.0634x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	94	6521	10303	36.71%

 

Total Showings Added Today:        7

Total Seats Added Today:           838

Total Seats Sold Today:              106

 

1.1991x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 10 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

Starting to look like while BP's bump from the first reactions was high, CM's bump is more prolonged.

[ThomasNicole]

'Captain Marvel' Soaring Toward Possible $150 Million Domestic Opening

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2019/02/26/captain-marvel-soaring-toward-possible-150-million-domestic-opening/#5913eae5274b

[Wonder89]

24 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

'Captain Marvel' Soaring Toward Possible $150 Million Domestic Opening

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2019/02/26/captain-marvel-soaring-toward-possible-150-million-domestic-opening/#5913eae5274b

 

But 150M is Mark Hughes prediction or is tracking?

Edited February 26, 2019 by Wonder89

[DlAMONDZ]

14 minutes ago, Wonder89 said:

 

But 150M is Mark Hughes prediction or is tracking?

He's just speculating

Edited February 26, 2019 by DlAMONDZ

[ThomasNicole]

18 minutes ago, Wonder89 said:

 

But 150M is Mark Hughes prediction or is tracking?

It’s not really a prediction, more like an analysis.

 

Final tracking out next week, probably.

[fabiopazzo2]

I do not think Captain Marvel is selling so well

obv I'm not an expert of presales 🤷🏼‍♂️

Edited February 26, 2019 by fabiopazzo2