The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

This. 

 

It seems the 3 biggest sources of data we have at the moment (Porthos, Fandango and Movietickets) all point towards a very similar number. The mathematical likelihood that this happens is not exactly high, so I think it is very likely at this point that something close to $19M previews is happening.

 

I would expect this to be more frontloaded than BP though, but that shouldn't affect previews, only what happens afterwards.

so in others words expect and ow around 150-160 if it has 19 previews and not higher ?

[FlashMaster659]

MT

 

2019-03-03 23:00:23.738471 UTC
1	28.3%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	16.3%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	8.4%	Captain Marvel
4	6.8%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
5	4.5%	Alita: Battle Angel

Edited March 3, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[Deep Wang]

7 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

This. 

 

It seems the 3 biggest sources of data we have at the moment (Porthos, Fandango and Movietickets) all point towards a very similar number. The mathematical likelihood that this happens is not exactly high, so I think it is very likely at this point that something close to $19M previews is happening.

 

[Cooper Legion]

I would rather have only the data from next 3 days than all the data from the past 6 months to the present when trying to predict preview/OW #s. Right now I’d go 20, but can easily imagine moving my guess as much as +-4 by Wednesday night.

[Stewart]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

so in others words expect and ow around 150-160 if it has 19 previews and not higher ?

Actually, using $19m gives 152m with BP. Now Black Panther had an inflated Sunday, but given the cultural significance was likely more frontloaded because of that, so perhaps BP is actually the benchmark (just different distribution over weekend). 

 

I'd go with $152m at the moment with a chance to do more, but in no means guaranteed.

 

I think that after Infinity War, the previews are only getting bigger. This is somewhat shown with Ant-Man and Wasp, as that gives:

(19 / 11.5) * 75.8 = 125.2

 

Now, it seems unlikely that it'd do just 125m after 19m previews, and because AM2 was summer and CM is not. 

 

---

 

 I know this is a bit incoherent  

 

Basically my point is that I think it'll be more frontloaded as previews are a larger % now due to Infinity War (which AM2 data supports). I was phrasing weirdly before, when I said it'll be more frontloaded than BP, I didn't account for BP's inflated weekend due to P-day and also the cultural significance that inflated previews. 

 

Tl;dr; I'm incoherent today, but yes I think ~150 if previews are 19. (Expanding appropriate range to 18-20 and 140-160)

[Cooper Legion]

I regard things roughly Fandango>Wang>Porthos>Movietickets in terms of usefulness (though more independent sources of data is always better). Fandango and Wang have concrete numbers and national scope, Porthos very detailed but intrinsic regional limitations, Movietickets while national only displays % and is simply less used.

[Stewart]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Oh my...

 

I'm a complete mess tonight. I can't believe our only source of real numbers was the one I forgot...

 

Please accept my deepest apologies and I'll be sure to delete my account in shame

[JB33]

34 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

This. 

 

It seems the 3 biggest sources of data we have at the moment (Porthos, Fandango and Movietickets) all point towards a very similar number. The mathematical likelihood that this happens is not exactly high, so I think it is very likely at this point that something close to $19M previews is happening.

 

I would expect this to be more frontloaded than BP though, but that shouldn't affect previews, only what happens afterwards.

In terms of strictly previews to opening day multiplier, which do you think will be more front loaded: Black Panther or Captain Marvel? I ask because I'm reviewing some recent comparable films (the big 3 I'm using are Beauty and the Beast, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Black Panther). All of them are pretty similar, except the previews to opening day multiplier varies from 3.0 (BP) to 3.3 (GotGV2) and 3.9 (BatB). I'm throwing out the BatB multiplier but most MCU films seem to be in the 3 to 3.3 range.

 

Based on $19M previews:

 

3.0 P to OD multipler --> $57M OD

3.3 P to OD multipler --> $62.7M OD

 

I'm leaning towards the 3.3 What am I getting at with that question? Whatever that multiplier ends up being obviously has a huge bearing on the weekend. Those 3 comparable films I mentioned all have one big thing in common: around a 30% increase from true Friday to Saturday. BatB and GotGV2 also share around a 23% drop on Sunday (BP's Sunday drop was lighter due to Presidents' Day weekend). That is all to say, I'm pretty certain of how the rest of the weekend will play out once I decide what that preview to total opening day multiplier will be.

 

My predictions keep changing by a few million every now and then but here's what I'm now going with after putting more effort into crunching the numbers:

 

Previews: $19M

True Friday: $43.5M

Saturday: $56.55M

Sunday: $44.11M

 

Total: $163.16M

Edited March 3, 2019 by JB33

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

In terms of strictly previews to opening day multiplier, which do you think will be more front loaded: Black Panther or Captain Marvel? I ask because I'm reviewing some recent comparable films (the big 3 I'm using are Beauty and the Beast, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Black Panther). All of them are pretty similar, except the previews to opening day multiplier varies from 3.0 (BP) to 3.3 (GotGV2) and 3.9 (BatB). I'm throwing out the BatB multiplier but most MCU films seem to be in the 3 to 3.3 range.

 

Based on $19M previews:

 

3.0 P to OD multipler --> $57M OD

3.3 P to OD multipler --> $62.7M OD

 

I'm leaning towards the 3.3 What am I getting at with that question? Whatever that multiplier ends up being obviously has a huge bearing on the weekend. Those 3 comparable films I mentioned all have one big thing in common: around a 30% increase from true Friday to Saturday. BatB and GotGV2 also share around a 23% drop on Sunday (BP's Sunday drop was lighter due to Presidents' Day weekend). That is all to say, I'm pretty certain of how the rest of the weekend will play out once I decide what that preview to total opening day multiplier will be.

I would say 3.16 (aiming for $60m OD). BP's previews were frontloaded imo due to cultural significance, something which Captain Marvel won't have to the same extent. However on the flip side I believe that MCU will be more preview heavy since Infinity War (which data for AM2 backs up).

 

Using your model then:

 

19 + 41 + 53.3 + 41 = 154.3

 

That lines up with the ~150 I'm thinking. (working backwards, 150 on the dot gives you a 3.09 multiplier)

[Porthos]

 

Updated by @akvalley: 2019-03-03 16:59:36 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2019-03-03 17:00:00	531	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
2019-03-03 17:00:00	466	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-03-03 17:00:00	429	Tyler Perrys A Madea Family Funeral
2019-03-03 17:00:00	171	Alita Battle Angel
2019-03-03 17:00:00	119	Fighting with My Family
2019-03-03 17:00:00	85	Captain Marvel The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-03-03 17:00:00	37	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World 3D
2019-03-03 17:00:00	34	Captain Marvel 3D
2019-03-03 17:00:00	9	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-03-03 17:00:00	3	Captain Marvel Opening Night Fan Event
(HtTYD3: 531 + 37 + 9 = 577 | CM: 466 + 85 + 34 + 3 = 588)

 

[Cooper Legion]

Amusingly that means GotG2 had a 3.3 preview:OD ration and a 3.3 pure Friday:pure FSS ratio. 

[JB33]

4 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

I would say 3.16 (aiming for $60m OD). BP's previews were frontloaded imo due to cultural significance, something which Captain Marvel won't have to the same extent. However on the flip side I believe that MCU will be more preview heavy since Infinity War (which data for AM2 backs up).

 

Using your model then:

 

19 + 41 + 53.3 + 41 = 154.3

 

That lines up with the ~150 I'm thinking. (working backwards, 150 on the dot gives you a 3.09 multiplier)

Good point about previews being even more of a factor for MCU movies post-IW. If the MCU wasn't popular enough, IW just drove the must-see status up even more.

 

However, I think there will be a little bit of a counter-balance to that with CM, at least in my opinion. I think walk-ups will be really strong for this for two reasons 1) audiences will be clamouring for something like this, given the lack of interest through 2019 thus far, and 2) the themes may resonate more with with certain groups of people who might otherwise not choose a superhero movie if they're walking up. I'm mostly thinking of younger girls and their families.

 

With $19M in previews, I'd be pretty shocked if the total opening day didn't easily clear $60M. I currently have the total opening day at $62.5M (edited my predictions in my last post).

[Biggestgeekever]

To be honest, I'm still struggling on what sort of impact National Women's Day will have. My feeling is it'll inflate the true Friday number somewhat, so I'm thinking $20M previews and then $47-48M for Friday, but this situation is pretty much unprecedented.

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

Good point about previews being even more of a factor for MCU movies post-IW. If the MCU wasn't popular enough, IW just drove the must-see status up even more.

 

However, I think there will be a little bit of a counter-balance to that with CM, at least in my opinion. I think walk-ups will be really strong for this for two reasons 1) audiences will be clamouring for something like this, given the lack of interest through 2019 thus far, and 2) the themes may resonate more with with certain groups of people who might otherwise not choose a superhero movie if they're walking up. I'm mostly thinking of younger girls and their families.

 

With $19M in previews, I'd be pretty shocked if the total opening day didn't easily clear $60M. I currently have the total opening day at $62.5M (edited my predictions in my last post).

Completely agree with your points. I'm just staying on the side of caution purely because of Ant-Man's frontloadedness (which would give CM a $125m weekend from $19m previews btw).

 

My actual range at the moment is $140-160m, but I will happily take a surprise, just don't want to be setup for disappointment after 2019 has disappointed in big hits thus far (outside of holdovers and Upside)

[JB33]

Just now, feasby007 said:

Completely agree with your points. I'm just staying on the side of caution purely because of Ant-Man's frontloadedness (which would give CM a $125m weekend from $19m previews btw).

 

My actual range at the moment is $140-160m, but I will happily take a surprise, just don't want to be setup for disappointment after 2019 has disappointed in big hits thus far (outside of holdovers and Upside)

I hear ya. I worry about getting a particlar number in my head and having that conflict with the actual result if it's lower. However it seems there truly is no safer bet at the box office than MCU films. It used to be Star Wars until Solo (TLJ as well, especially overseas).

[MagnarTheGreat]

Here's the spot in this thread (Sunday, February 11, 2018, days before BP Thursday preview/release) that was comparable to this time now with Captain Marvel releasing days away.

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

To be honest, I'm still struggling on what sort of impact National Women's Day will have. My feeling is it'll inflate the true Friday number somewhat, so I'm thinking $20M previews and then $47-48M for Friday, but this situation is pretty much unprecedented.

Looking back at 2013, when International Women's Day was also Friday, although the lack of any good comps, it seemed to have no effect whatsoever. 

 

However the times have changed enough now with the #MeToo campaign and such that an effect could happen.

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

To be honest, I'm still struggling on what sort of impact National Women's Day will have. My feeling is it'll inflate the true Friday number somewhat, so I'm thinking $20M previews and then $47-48M for Friday, but this situation is pretty much unprecedented.

Does anyone in the US actually care about International Women’s Day? I got the sense that it was pretty much a non-event but could have a bigger impact in some other countries where there’s actual full or half days off work.

[Yandereprime101189]

The time has come once again for Marvel Studios to claim the box office.

[King Internets]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Updated by @akvalley: 2019-03-03 16:59:36 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2019-03-03 17:00:00	531	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
2019-03-03 17:00:00	466	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-03-03 17:00:00	429	Tyler Perrys A Madea Family Funeral
2019-03-03 17:00:00	171	Alita Battle Angel
2019-03-03 17:00:00	119	Fighting with My Family
2019-03-03 17:00:00	85	Captain Marvel The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-03-03 17:00:00	37	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World 3D
2019-03-03 17:00:00	34	Captain Marvel 3D
2019-03-03 17:00:00	9	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-03-03 17:00:00	3	Captain Marvel Opening Night Fan Event
(HtTYD3: 531 + 37 + 9 = 577 | CM: 466 + 85 + 34 + 3 = 588)

 

Hi, I’m new here but I’ve been reading this thread a lot. Where are these numbers from?