The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Nah. It's generally considered to open to around Cinderella (60M give or take 10M) by pundits and peeps here. It also doesn't really match with any of the comps you made. I definitely will track it though.

Cool.  Yeah, I only tracked FB2 on a lark and to see if the HP property still had any staying power when it came to previews.  Might take a look at Diumbo two to three days away from premiere, but probably not.

 

Thanks for the info, much appreciated.

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

From last night:

6156/5789 = 1.0634

6156/6228 = 0.9884

 

1.0634 x 14.1 (Solo) = 14.9939m

0.9884 x 15.3 (JW2)  = 15.1231m

Your Comp               =  16.7m

 

They're all in the same ballpark is more or less what I'm saying.

But your comps are from 12 hours ago, so in half a day CM has increased its Thursday previews by 1.7m. Extrapolating:

 

Wed EoD: 18.4m (+1.7m)

Thursday Morning: 20.4m (+2m stronger than Wed)

Thursday final: 24m (+3.6m stronger as time of event)

 

I'd say 24m sounds pretty darn good for previews for this  

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

So if I’m reading the data correctly, would I be correct in saying that the March OW record is in danger of being taken down? 

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

But your comps are from 12 hours ago, so in half a day CM has increased its Thursday previews by 1.7m. Extrapolating:

 

Wed EoD: 18.4m (+1.7m)

Thursday Morning: 20.4m (+2m stronger than Wed)

Thursday final: 24m (+3.6m stronger as time of event)

 

I'd say 24m sounds pretty darn good for previews for this  

I didn't realize you'd added in today's partials already.  👍

 

Have to say, I'm really leery of going above 23.  Just... I don't know.  Gives me the willies for some reason I can't quite grok.

 

I get the extra screenings and the tickets sold in the immediate run-up, but I dunno.  Maybe that local 2D:3D split has me spooked.  Along with the lack of sellouts (yes, I know - more showings  = less sellouts).

 

Just...  Hey, I'm a cautious fella, okay?  Already feel like I'm going out on a limb when I suggest 22m is a possibility.

[Stewart]

Just now, VenomXXR said:

So if I’m reading the data correctly, would I be correct in saying that the March OW record is in danger of being taken down? 

Unless this is unusually frontloaded (which is possible in a post-Infinity-War era), then it's looking likely as opposed to being in danger!

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

So if I’m reading the data correctly, would I be correct in saying that the March OW record is in danger of being taken down? 

In danger? Yeah, very much. Even adjusted. Could miss with like 23*7->161 or something still, wouldn’t be particularly shocking.

Edited March 6, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I didn't realize you'd added in today's partials already.  👍

 

Have to say, I'm really leery of going above 23.  Just... I don't know.  Gives me the willies for some reason I can't quite grok.

 

I get the extra screenings and the tickets sold in the immediate run-up, but I dunno.  Maybe that local 2D:3D split has me spooked.  Along with the lack of sellouts (yes, I know - more showings  = less sellouts).

 

Just...  Hey, I'm a cautious fella, okay?  Already feel like I'm going out on a limb when I suggest 22m is a possibility.

very interesting wording... 

 

Also that page you shared updates hourly as with all akvalley stuff, so it was as of 1pm CST I think. 

 

I also feel your caution. I too and concerned this will be frontloaded due to a post-InfinityWar era, but I'm really starting to think this could be huge now. 

 

I have also noticed there are very few 3D only screenings (my locals in UK have IMAX 3D, 2D and 4DX, no normal 3D...). So perhaps this will lower the avg. ticket price compared to BP a tad, who knows. (Saying that at my locals IMAX 3D is by far the biggest seller and almost sold out)

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

In danger? Yeah, very much. Even adjusted. Could miss with like 23*7->161 or something still, wouldn’t be particularly shocking.

Well, let's work backward then.  BatB = 174.75m

 

174.75/8    = 21.844m

174.75/7.5 = 23.300m

174.75/7    = 24.964m

174.75/6.5 = 26.885m

 

Choose Your Own Adventure from there.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

very interesting wording... 

Willies (wiktionary)

The Willies (Urban Dictionary)

 

 

[Stewart]

Just now, Porthos said:

Willies (wiktionary)

The Willies (Urban Dictionary)

 

 

Ah thank you! I thought you mistyped or something, but this makes sense now. Kind of seems like it stems from "will" as in "the will to do something", where "the willies" is something where you lack the will do to it, i.e. feel nervous about it. 

 

Definitely going to try using this more often now 

[Eric Prime]

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

So if I’m reading the data correctly, would I be correct in saying that the March OW record is in danger of being taken down? 

I myself am O/U BvS, but I feel like it's knocking on the record's doors, and could manage to do it. The one thing that has me concerned is just how frontloaded it'll be. Ant-Man and the Wasp had a weirdly frontloaded Friday, but I feel like that's something to still think about. Not to mention the film's female factor.

[Biggestgeekever]

There was nothing weirdly frontloaded about Ant-Man and the Wasp; it released in July with the 4th on Wednesday, so many people had Thursday and Friday off. You can see that Friday and Saturday increases for holdovers were weak across the board: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2018-07-06&track=ant-manandthewasp.htm

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

One word of caution when using the weekend link for Panther: akvalley started tracking on 29Jan18, so 3 weeks of sales were missed. You can probably extrapolate based on similar comps with comparable sales windows, but Panther data is incomplete in that sense

Edited March 6, 2019 by The Fast and the Furiosa

[Rebeccas]

12 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I myself am O/U BvS, but I feel like it's knocking on the record's doors, and could manage to do it. The one thing that has me concerned is just how frontloaded it'll be. Ant-Man and the Wasp had a weirdly frontloaded Friday, but I feel like that's something to still think about. Not to mention the film's female factor.

4th of July was on Wednesday so I think some people just had 5 day weekends essentially.

[FlashMaster659]

MT

 

2019-03-06 21:00:25.486299 UTC
1	43.1%	Captain Marvel
2	12.6%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	11.5%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4	4.4%	Alita: Battle Angel
5	3.1%	Greta

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

MT

 

2019-03-06 21:00:25.486299 UTC
1	43.1%	Captain Marvel
2	12.6%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	11.5%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4	4.4%	Alita: Battle Angel
5	3.1%	Greta

how is compared to black panther ?

[FlashMaster659]

4 minutes ago, john2000 said:

how is compared to black panther ?

39.5% for BP at the same point in time

[Cooper Legion]

If we get a Thurs morning Wang number, want to guess 13.2 (please don’t do any actual analysis unless he gives a real number, I am guessing purely for my own amusement).  Fandango presales set to clearly outpace BP and IW’s Wed increase, maybe even DP2’s 40% growth.

[Valonqar]

7 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

39.5% for BP at the same point in time

200M OW is happening. I really think it can and will go that high. 

[fabiopazzo2]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

200M OW is happening. I really think it can and will go that high. 

Maybe over IW