The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Nova]

6 minutes ago, Matthew said:

Wow that was a very good analysis. So CM will not loose much screen during Endgame release. Why? 

Double features with End Game. 

[MaxAggressor]

6 minutes ago, Matthew said:

So CM will not loose much screen during Endgame release. Why? 

Because both are from the same studio (for that matter, the other two that Deep Wang listed are also Disney movies) and Disney will arrange double bill programming (drive-in feature) with the movies they have playing in theaters at that time during the weekend.

[Deep Wang]

10 minutes ago, Matthew said:

Wow that was a very good analysis. So CM will not loose much screen during Endgame release. Why? 

Again, it will still come down to individual theaters and how well it's doing there.  

 

It will still lose theaters along the way, but what I am talking about is more about if it's still playing in a theater when Endgame releases, it won't lose any showtimes due to EG.  If it's already gone, it's already gone.  

[POTUS 2020]

4 hours ago, john2000 said:

? more theater and showing perhaps ? why runntime will affect it that much ,i dont believe that it will loose many 

i doubt it will get much more in the way theaters/screens, but even if it did.  30m extra run time causes 1 less showing per day per screen.

7 shows could fit in 20 hours(6am-2am) at 2:30 runtime. only 6 shows in 20 hours at 3:00.

That's a 14% decline in shows

It will have to make it up in capacity.  I say its well under $250m

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

29 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

i doubt it will get much more in the way theaters/screens, but even if it did.  30m extra run time causes 1 less showing per day per screen.

7 shows could fit in 20 hours(6am-2am) at 2:30 runtime. only 6 shows in 20 hours at 3:00.

That's a 14% decline in shows

It will have to make it up in capacity.  I say its well under $250m

 

My friend who works at the Showbiz says they’re using 6 screens out of 10 for it on OW. For IW they only used 5. That’s how you even it out I suppose. I’m thinking the total weekend capacity will be right around the same number of tickets available as IW. I’m expecting $260m.

[reddevil19]

Yeah, I don't see how theaters don't try to max out the screen count for EG, considering what IW opened to. Obviously, the runtime is an issue, but I expect most theaters will have 60% or more of their screens to be dedicated to EG for OW (and their biggest ones at that).

[TwoMisfits]

25 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Yeah, I don't see how theaters don't try to max out the screen count for EG, considering what IW opened to. Obviously, the runtime is an issue, but I expect most theaters will have 60% or more of their screens to be dedicated to EG for OW (and their biggest ones at that).

I actually expect them to try to get Endgame to 75-80% of their screens for the weekend at 12s and below.  I expect them to give holdover movies single or double showings on screens for the weekend and giving the rest of those screens to Endgame, and then giving those holdovers back more showings once the weekdays hit (which is exactly what my 12s did for AIW).

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

 

My friend who works at the Showbiz says they’re using 6 screens out of 10 for it on OW. For IW they only used 5. That’s how you even it out I suppose. I’m thinking the total weekend capacity will be right around the same number of tickets available as IW. I’m expecting $260m.

I'm loathe to put this out there, as I'm still waiting on a couple of theaters to put up their initial slate, but I do have some baselines to look at for Opening Night ONLY:

 

Infinity War Opening Slate (T-41 days):       103 showings | 15 theaters + 1 yet to be scheduled 

Infinity War at T-23 days and counting:       116 showings | 16 theaters 

Endgame Opening Slate so far (T-23 days): 137 showings | 15 theaters + 2 yet to be scheduled + 1 yet to open

(none of these count the local drive-in since it doesn't schedule until a couple of days before release)

 

There are a couple more showings for IW on the FSS docket at the same point in time (for example IW: 210 Fri vs EG: 206 Fri), but one of the theaters I do have Thr info for, I don't for have info for FSS yet.  Though, to be fair, for some inexplicable reason I have an initial Fri slate for one of the smaller theaters in the region, but not it's Thr slate, so maybe a bit of a wash

 

Now this isn't strictly like for like as it's already playing in one more theater in town (net, as there is some slight shuffling going on as exactly where it's playing), and I presume it'll show up at the new theater that opens up in a couple of weeks.  And of course, I don't know what it's going to look like as the rest of the schedule fills in.

 

But right now it looks like theaters are trying to clear out initial space on Thursday.  That it's within spitting distance of IW on Friday at a similar point out is an interesting sign.  We'll see how that FSS slate develops as OW approaches. 

Edited March 30, 2019 by Porthos

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, POTUS 2020 said:

i doubt it will get much more in the way theaters/screens, but even if it did.  30m extra run time causes 1 less showing per day per screen.

7 shows could fit in 20 hours(6am-2am) at 2:30 runtime. only 6 shows in 20 hours at 3:00.

That's a 14% decline in shows

It will have to make it up in capacity.  I say its well under $250m

 

You could be right, there is every bit of a chance it opens will below $250m.  I just don't think it will be because of a lack of screens or times. 

 

Let's set up some example times for a theater.  Let's set first show at 9am and last show at midnight. 

 

3 hour long movie means at least 4 hour gap(30 mins between shows and 20m for trailers).

 

Screen 1 > 9am, 1pm, 5pm, 9pm

Screen 2 > 10am, 2pm, 6pm, 10pm

Screen 3 > 11am, 3pm, 7pm, 11pm

Screen 4 >12pm, 4pm, 8pm, 12am

 

That's 16 starts, 4 per screen.

 

IW was 30 mins shorter so it would look more like this:

 

Screen 1 > 9am, 1230pm, 4pm, 730pm, 11pm

Screen 2 > 10am, 130pm, 5pm, 830pm, 12pm

Screen 3 > 11am, 230pm, 6pm, 930pm

Screen 4 >12pm, 330pm, 7pm, 1030am

 

So that's 2 fewer shows for EG than IW got.  However, everyone knows this is longer, so I would be willing to bet just about anything every theater will be booked with an extra print.  

 

Screen 1 > 9am, 1pm, 5pm, 9pm

Screen 2 > 10am, 2pm, 6pm, 10pm

Screen 3 > 11am, 3pm, 7pm, 11pm

Screen 4 >12pm, 4pm, 8pm, 12am

Screen 5 > 1130am, 330pm, 730pm, 1130pm

 

 

 

So now it has 2 MORE times than IW.

 

They will plan accordingly, I promise you Disney isn't going to leave so much as a penny on the table if they can help it.

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'm loathe to put this out there, as I'm still waiting on a couple of theaters to put up their initial slate, but I do have some baselines to look at for Opening Night ONLY:

 

Infinity War Opening Slate (T-41 days):       103 showings | 15 theaters + 1 yet to be scheduled 

Infinity War at T-23 days and counting:       116 showings | 16 theaters 

Endgame Opening Slate so far (T-23 days): 137 showings | 15 theaters + 2 yet to be scheduled + 1 yet to open

(none of these count the local drive-in since it doesn't schedule until a couple of days before release)

 

There are a couple more showings for IW on the FSS docket at the same point in time (for example IW: 210 Fri vs EG: 206 Fri), but one of the theaters I do have Thr info for, I don't for have info for FSS yet.  Though, to be fair, for some inexplicable reason I have an initial Fri slate for one of the smaller theaters in the region, but not it's Thr slate, so maybe a bit of a wash

 

Now this isn't strictly like for like as it's already playing in one more theater in town (net, as there is some slight shuffling going on as exactly where it's playing), and I presume it'll show up at the new theater that opens up in a couple of weeks.  And of course, I don't know what it's going to look like as the rest of the schedule fills in.

 

But right now it looks like theaters are trying to clear out initial space on Thursday.  That it's within spitting distance of IW on Friday at a similar point out is an interesting sign.  We'll see how that FSS slate develops as OW approaches. 

What was the final showtime total for Thursday for IW? 

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

What was the final showtime total for Thursday for IW? 

 

Thr:  182 showings (86.64% of capacity at stop of tracking [5:30pm - 6:20pm])

Fri:   391 showings 

Sat:  389 showings

Sun: 370 showings

17 theaters, including showings from the local drive-in

 

Any showings for FSS added after Thr night were not tracked.

Edited March 30, 2019 by Porthos

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

I was checking times again, seeing if my theater updated (it did finally). Look how many showtimes the largest theater in Houston is running for Thursday night (SO FAR!)....

https://www.amctheatres.com/showtimes/all/2019-04-25/amc-gulf-pointe-30/all

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I was checking times again, seeing if my theater updated (it did finally). Look how many showtimes the largest theater in Houston is running for Thursday night (SO FAR!)....

https://www.amctheatres.com/showtimes/all/2019-04-25/amc-gulf-pointe-30/all

Got to say, I can't even imagine what a 30 screen complex must be like in terms of traffic for the biggest of blockbusters.  Both for people trying to get around and the staffers trying to keep on top of the madness.

[MattW]

The 2 week commitment means Hellboy, After, Little and Missing Link may have obligated showtimes thursday night but their time is up before Endgame starts showtimes Friday morning.  Only Llorona, Breakthrough and Penguins will be inside the 2 week period still.

 

So I think there's room for showtimes to fill the gap between IW and Endgame's runtime, but until presale numbers roll in indicating otherwise I still don't think it'll match the OW.

 

Speaking of, do we have akvalley presale numbers for the leadup to the week of release, or just the MTWTh the week of?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

32 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Got to say, I can't even imagine what a 30 screen complex must be like in terms of traffic for the biggest of blockbusters.  Both for people trying to get around and the staffers trying to keep on top of the madness.

Can't imagine either, because in theory a theater shouldn't be running 25 simultaneous sold out shows lol. 

I will note, that the 56 show times already in place is 8 more than IW got total on Thursday. It'll be interesting to see if they add more. 

 

[MrGlass2]

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-03-31 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	29.962%	19579	Us (2019)
2	22.015%	14386	Dumbo (2019)
3	16.041%	10482	Captain Marvel (2019)
4	04.195%	2741	Unplanned (2019)
5	03.601%	2353	Dumbo
...
8	02.805%	1833	Shazam!
12	01.036%	677	Pet Sematary (2019)
27	00.129%	84	The Best of Enemies

 

[Matthew]

Updated by @akvalley: 2019-04-01 02:01:36 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)

 

BUY TIME TICKETS MOVIE TITLE

 

--------------------------------------------------

 

2019-04-01 01:00:00 56 Shazam!

 

2019-04-01 01:00:00 54 Us (2019)

 

2019-04-01 01:00:00 39 Dumbo (2019)

 

2019-04-01 01:00:00 36 Captain Marvel (2019)

 

2019-04-01 01:00:00 12 Pet Sematary (2019)

 

2019-04-01 01:00:00 9 Hotel Mumbai

 

2019-04-01 01:00:00 7 Shazam! The IMAX 2D Experience

 

 

 

 

 

Shazam is increasing. Good. 👍👍👍

[TalismanRing]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

Black Panther	35,429	36,302	39,934	65,453
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063	25,201
Captain Marvel	33,951	37,060	49,745	64,456

 

 

[Eric Prime]

Welp, might as well post Shazam's results before its final release week.

 

Movie/Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

Shazam!	859	848	1,031	1,124	841	817	1,798
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days	6 days	5 days

 

Past 7 Days:

11% of Captain Marvel (17.1M)

152% of Dumbo (68.4M)

115% of Dragon 3 (63.4M)

165% of Lego 2 (56.2M)

 

Day 18-5

119% of Dumbo (53.5M)

 

Day 23-5

12% of Captain Marvel (18.7M)

108% of Dragon 3 (59.6M)

181% of Lego 2 (61.8M)

 

 

So this is an interesting conundrum we have here. Out of all the 2019 comps I have available (I go up to Glass), should we use Captain Marvel, a superhero movie based on an established property, or use PG movies like Dumbo/Dragon/Lego, since Shazam is marketing itself as being more kid-friendly? In both cases, very different stories are being told. As always, it's best to wait until we get the results for pre-release Monday, so that we have more comps to base itself off of.

Edited April 1, 2019 by CoolEric258

[Premium George]

If it's possible, JW2 and aquaman. I sound like a broken record.😅