The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Rebeccas]

18 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

Nope. The entire Xmen Origins movie leaked and I don’t think that affected it’s BO at all.

Well it might've cause they probably found out the movie was terrible lol

[el sid]

Because two movies start already tomorrow and I said that I will count Avengers: Endgame from Monday on...
Pulse today 8:50-9:04 EST:

Breakthrough: 17/15 – BT was pretty muted last week but yesterday it saw a little increase and had at that time 8/15; ICOI would have been a good comp but that movie was a Friday release, pretty volatile at Pulse and I think ICOI had a lot of buzz long before the release and in the case of Breakthrough the WOM has to help, it's the other way around. A partly fitting comp could be Isn't It Romantic which had 25/15 same day and time of the day. But in that case the focus was on the Thursday/Valentine's Day and not Good Friday and the Easter weekend (IIR made in 5 days 20.5M, thereof 4.4M on Valentines Day). Another halfway fitting comp could be Unplanned (6.4M OW) which had on Tuesday at that time 14/15 and on Thursday at that time 24/15. So far BT sits at 70% at RT with 20 reviews, could stay fresh.
Pinguins: 8/15 – yesterday 3/15
The Curse of La Llorona: 8/15 – yesterday 2/15 but it improved later in the day; at the second counting yesterday La Llorona wasn't far behind Pet Sematary on its Monday back then

Avengers: Endgame: 270/15 – yesterday 163/15
 

And Pulse 10:35-10:49 EST:
 

Breakthrough: 21/15 – yesterday it were 6/15; Unplanned had on Tuesday at that time 17/15 and on Thursday at that time 35/15, Isn't It Romantic had on Tuesday at that time 63/15.
Pinguins: 12/15 – yesterday 6/15;
The Curse of La Llorona: 12/15; yesterday 15/15 at that time; Us had 197/15, The Prodigy 1/15 both same day and time of the day (I know that's not helpful and I have more and better comparisons tomorrow and on Thursday).
→ All three new movies don't look like they would overperform at the moment but I guess that can change rapidly tomorrow or before the Good Friday.
 

Avengers: Endgame: 435/15 – yesterday 495/15 (ok, cheap Tuesday begins but still, I already wonder how long it will be countable per eye-count).

 

[Sue Denim]

Here's another update from my local theater in Brighton, Michigan for the Thursday night opening of Avengers: Endgame, with 10 days to go before the opening.

 

They added 4 screens 2 days ago, and another 3 screens today.  Total screens for Thursday, April 25, is:  23.  They are expecting and preparing for walk-up business to be brisk.

 

	Thursday Showtimes:			23
				(+7 last 2 days)
MJR Brighton - Thursday April 25 AEG opening
2D	6:10	169	211		80.09%
	6:20	77	88		87.50%
	6:30	123	154		79.87%
	6:50	62	100		62.00%
	7:00	41	60		68.33%
	7:10	159	209		76.08%
	7:25	75	97		77.32%
	7:30	19	51		37.25%	**added 2 days ago**
	7:40	125	152		82.24%
	8:10	133	152		87.50%
	8:30	6	46		13.04%	**Added TODAY**
	9:10	128	155		82.58%
	9:30	10	51		19.61%	**added 2 days ago**
	9:45	1	41		2.44%	**Added TODAY**
	10:00	102	209		48.80%
	10:10	14	98		14.29%	**added 2 days ago**
	10:15	57	154		37.01%
	10:40	15	100		15.00%
	10:50	0	60		0.00%	**Added TODAY**
	11:00	64	209		30.62%
3D	6:40	59	100		59.00%
	8:00	7	60		11.67%	**added 2 days ago**
	10:30	20	100		20.00%
	TOTAL:	1466	2657		55.18%	**10 Days Out**
(w/o added shows):		1409	2250		62.62%

[Eric S'ennui]

Movie/Time	Monday
Avengers: Endgame	26,081
	11 days
Detective Pikachu	350
	25 days
John Wick 3	1,361
	32 days
Secret Life of Pets 2	11
	53 days

 

Endgame

Last 7 Days (17-11)

181% of Black Panther (366.1M)

184% of Infinity War (474.9M)

529% of Captain Marvel (811.1M)

 

Day 22-11

230% of Infinity War (593M)

730% of Captain Marvel (1.1B)

 

Cumulative

99% of Infinity War (255M)

296% of Captain Marvel (454.4M)

 

Pikachu

First 6 days

15% of Captain Marvel (23.3M)

634% of Dragon 3 (348.9M)

120% of Dumbo (55.2M)

130% of Shazam! (69.8M)

 

Day 30-25

38% of Captain Marvel (58.3M)

433% of Dragon 3 (238.4M)

 

Cumulative

288% of Dragon 3 (158.3M)

 

 

Wick

Day 39-32

20% of Captain Marvel (30.2M)

 

 

-Fantastic for Avengers. It'll likely cross Infinity War's cumulative tomorrow, which is mad impressive for a movie that had fewer days of presales.

-Still solid for Pikachu. The Dragon 3 comps are coming down to Earth more and more, but everything points to a solid gross, although 100M does seem a bit up in the air at the moment. Of course, we've still got a long way to go.

-That Wick spike is great, even if it's only because of that promotional deal. This doing about 20% of Captain Marvel at the same point in time is a good starting point.

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

Endgame presales in Athens (only the biggest theater chain)

 

Basically,from the 24th of April and on AEG will be the only film playing in the entire country occupying all screens.Literally they are cancelling showing from other films to give to AEG and meet the demand.

 

To begin with,for the first time ever the theaters will open at 12 pm.They usually open at 4 pm.

 

Added 10+ showing (3 of them are very early on the biggest auditoriums.)

38 sell outs(including 12 in the biggest auditoriums)

15 near sell outs(including 2 in the biggest auditoriums)

 

And i’m Certain that no other film has opened to sooo many screens.Maybe not even half.

 

comp from last report:

+14 sell outs

No change for the near sold out screenings 

 

UNBELIEVABLE 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

50 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Movie/Time	Monday
Avengers: Endgame	26,081
	11 days
Detective Pikachu	350
	25 days
John Wick 3	1,361
	32 days
Secret Life of Pets 2	11
	53 days

 

Endgame

Last 7 Days (17-11)

181% of Black Panther (366.1M)

184% of Infinity War (474.9M)

529% of Captain Marvel (811.1M)

 

Day 22-11

230% of Infinity War (593M)

730% of Captain Marvel (1.1B)

 

Cumulative

99% of Infinity War (255M)

296% of Captain Marvel (454.4M)

 

Pikachu

First 6 days

15% of Captain Marvel (23.3M)

634% of Dragon 3 (348.9M)

120% of Dumbo (55.2M)

130% of Shazam! (69.8M)

 

Day 30-25

38% of Captain Marvel (58.3M)

433% of Dragon 3 (238.4M)

 

Cumulative

288% of Dragon 3 (158.3M)

 

 

Wick

Day 39-32

20% of Captain Marvel (30.2M)

 

 

-Fantastic for Avengers. It'll likely cross Infinity War's cumulative tomorrow, which is mad impressive for a movie that had fewer days of presales.

-Still solid for Pikachu. The Dragon 3 comps are coming down to Earth more and more, but everything points to a solid gross, although 100M does seem a bit up in the air at the moment. Of course, we've still got a long way to go.

-That Wick spike is great, even if it's only because of that promotional deal. This doing about 20% of Captain Marvel at the same point in time is a good starting point.

Regarding Cumulative, how much you accounted for first two days 

[kitik]

in non-Endgame news, my local theater has put some more presales up:

 

-Pikachu is starting at 4pm (as we learned a few weeks ago), but it is not getting the premium format screen, Avengers is keeping it

 

-John Wick is starting it's shows at 7pm

 

-Secret Life of Pets 2 is starting it's shows at 6pm.

[kitik]

54 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Cumulative

99% of Infinity War (255M)

296% of Captain Marvel (454.4M)

 

You almost have to wonder if there will be a point next week where Avengers sales actually go down, simply because theaters are running out of seats to sell.

[Premium George]

27 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Regarding Cumulative, how much you accounted for first two days 

He said none few days ago.

[charlie Jatinder]

Assuming 4500 locs for Endgame, that would be 14,000 screens and 60k shows.

 

Assuming 150 per show capacity, 9mn approx single day capacity.

 

ATP of $11-12 for weekend give $100-110mn single day capacity.

 

EG capacity will be perhaps 80 110 110 110 : 410 for weekend.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Premium George said:

He said none few days ago.

Since Fandago revealed ratio 7 days being 5x of IW, I think that can be used.

[Eric S'ennui]

18 minutes ago, Premium George said:

He said none few days ago.

Well...kinda. I ignore the first day since I had nothing to work with, but I do use Endgame's second day (what little there is). In hindsight, maybe it's useless, but I don't think it dramatically impacts things that much.

[XXR vs XXR]

@Charlie Jatinder What day did you say it should pass TFA presales?

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

Well...kinda. I ignore the first day since I had nothing to work with, but I do use Endgame's second day (what little there is). In hindsight, maybe it's useless, but I don't think it dramatically impacts things that much.

 

Your cumulative doesn’t account for hundreds of thousand of tickets at a minimum if you’re not using the first day estimates. 

[Thrylos 7]

1 hour ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Endgame presales in Athens (only the biggest theater chain)

 

Basically,from the 24th of April and on AEG will be the only film playing in the entire country occupying all screens.Literally they are cancelling showing from other films to give to AEG and meet the demand.

 

To begin with,for the first time ever the theaters will open at 12 pm.They usually open at 4 pm.

 

Added 10+ showing (3 of them are very early on the biggest auditoriums.)

38 sell outs(including 12 in the biggest auditoriums)

15 near sell outs(including 2 in the biggest auditoriums)

 

And i’m Certain that no other film has opened to sooo many screens.Maybe not even half.

 

comp from last report:

+14 sell outs

No change for the near sold out screenings 

 

UNBELIEVABLE 

 

Village cinemas I presume . So what I wrote anecdotally in the international thread a few days ago but great seeing official evidence. 

[DAJK]

@CoolEric258 be careful when presenting data that suggests DP might not gross 4B domestic. The Pika Pika weirdos might come after you

[Eric S'ennui]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

@CoolEric258 be careful when presenting data that suggests DP might not gross 4B domestic. The Pika Pika weirdos might come after you

Fuck Pikachu's lil' bitch-ass. Sonic all the way!

[Cappoedameron]

4 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

-Still solid for Pikachu. The Dragon 3 comps are coming down to Earth more and more, but everything points to a solid gross, although 100M does seem a bit up in the air at the moment. Of course, we've still got a long way to go.

Dragon 3? I don't see that being Pikachu's domestic gross total. BOP has it at least $250,000,000 - $300,000,000 domestic total run. I guess we shall see, shouldn't more tracking come in this week?

Edited April 16, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[Eric S'ennui]

5 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Dragon 3? I don't see that being Pikachu's domestic gross total. BOP has it at least $250,000,000 - $300,000,000 domestic total run.

I'm talking about OW, but okay.

[Cappoedameron]

22 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I'm talking about OW, but okay.

Ah in that case BOP has it at 90M. We should get more updated tracking sometime this week I imagine. I feel like Pika is gonna be above 100M but that's just my wish. 

 

I feel like with Reynolds marketing and reviews it may get that 100M + OW.

 

Thanks for the info.

Edited April 16, 2019 by Cappoedameron