The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Sue Denim]

I've been doing regular updates for my local theater in Brighton, Michigan for the April 25 opening night Avengers: Endgame event and I noticed something interesting.  The MJR theater has it's entire slate of movies/showtimes up, but they are not allowing any tickets to be sold for any screening after 6pm for any movie other than AEG.  They have 9 screens/showtimes greyed out for every other movie on their slate for that day.

 

 

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Sue Denim said:

I've been doing regular updates for my local theater in Brighton, Michigan for the April 25 opening night Avengers: Endgame event and I noticed something interesting.  The MJR theater has it's entire slate of movies/showtimes up, but they are not allowing any tickets to be sold for any screening after 6pm for any movie other than AEG.  They have 9 screens/showtimes greyed out for every other movie on their slate for that day.

 

 

Well gee, I wonder what could possibly happen to those screenings come Thursday...

[Sue Denim]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Well gee, I wonder what could possibly happen to those screenings come Thursday...

Maybe a Thanos snap???

 

What's funny is they have those showings listed as "SOLD OUT".

Edited April 16, 2019 by Sue Denim

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

Just for fun...

 

If AEG sees the same bump as AIW from A:AOU the  its OW weekend is 345M.Then if you apply the same multy as AIW then AEG gets to 900+M.

 

Now a scenario where this gets 1/3 of the bump and say it increases 15% then AEG gets to 296M OW and with a lower multy of 2.4, 711M total.

 

IDK why I'm even choosing these numbers but I am so bored.

[TwoMisfits]

It's probably pretty obvious, but I think any Thursday night showing 6pm or later on Endgame's OW will be an Endgame showing at literally every theater with 12 screens or less...and probably at theaters with 16 screens or less.

 

Nothing is gonna sell better that night, and the new movies opening this week/weekend probably don't have the "juice" to save their last showing or two of the night.  

 

I'd say Friday night might go the same way, with maybe 1-2 movies being alternatives for 7 and 10pm showings...and then the theaters will get back to a more "regular" set (well, I mean they'll have Endgame on acres of screens, but they'll let their holdover movies actually have some evening showings)...

 

It's one reason that I think to go $300M, Endgame needs $150M through Friday b/c those 1st 2 days will have availability that will be unseen for any movie ever:)...

[Perfundle]

4 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Secret Lifes of Pets 2

11

53 days

Given how early tickets went up for this, and the complete lack of fanfare that they're even being sold, how do you make comparisons regarding presales for family films? Has there been any correlation with early presale numbers and opening weekend numbers for these films, or is it more about the final two weeks leading up to opening night?

[Lordmandeep]

13 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's probably pretty obvious, but I think any Thursday night showing 6pm or later on Endgame's OW will be an Endgame showing at literally every theater with 12 screens or less...and probably at theaters with 16 screens or less.

 

Nothing is gonna sell better that night, and the new movies opening this week/weekend probably don't have the "juice" to save their last showing or two of the night.  

 

I'd say Friday night might go the same way, with maybe 1-2 movies being alternatives for 7 and 10pm showings...and then the theaters will get back to a more "regular" set (well, I mean they'll have Endgame on acres of screens, but they'll let their holdover movies actually have some evening showings)...

 

It's one reason that I think to go $300M, Endgame needs $150M through Friday b/c those 1st 2 days will have availability that will be unseen for any movie ever:)...

 

 

I think Endgame could still pull 80 and 70+ million on Saturday and Sunday.

 

Like the presales i see for theaters around me are going strong the entire weekend, not showing any massive weekend frontloading. 

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, Perfundle said:

Given how early tickets went up for this, and the complete lack of fanfare that they're even being sold, how do you make comparisons regarding presales for family films? Has there been any correlation with early presale numbers and opening weekend numbers for these films, or is it more about the final two weeks leading up to opening night?

I can't speak for others but I will say that we kinda pay close attention to family films closer to their release date versus earlier on. Just because most families aren't make plans to go watch a movie 30+ days in advance. Add in the fact that SLOP2 began selling tickets way earlier than most films let alone family films and really there is no comp for it BUT I think what @CoolEric258 is doing is great because at least for future family films we will have data for things like SLOP2, Dragon 3, Dumbo (and Detective Pikachu if it ends up being a family film) to compare to.

Edited April 16, 2019 by Nova

[XXR vs XXR]

 

Endgame Rolling 3-Hour Comparison -- Fandango -- 12:00, 13:00, 14:00

April 15 -- 4069

April 16 -- 4392

 

Through 14 Updates 

April 15 -- 10149

April 16 -- 11226

 

Final Total

April 15 -- 26081

April 16 (Est) -- 28500 

[Perfundle]

30 minutes ago, Nova said:

I can't speak for others but I will say that we kinda pay close attention to family films closer to their release date versus earlier on. Just because most families aren't make plans to go watch a movie 30+ days in advance. Add in the fact that SLOP2 began selling tickets way earlier than most films let alone family films and really there is no comp for it BUT I think what @CoolEric258 is doing is great because at least for future family films we will have data for things like SLOP2, Dragon 3, Dumbo (and Detective Pikachu if it ends up being a family film) to compare to.

Oh, I'm quite grateful for what he's doing. It's just that I'd like to track other family films this summer, and I'm not sure if I should start tracking SLOP2 right now, or wait until a more official announcement.

 

I also feel that the number of days out tickets go on sale and the kind of promotion they have for it is really influencing early presales (e.g. Detective Pikachu had the exclusive trading card promotion, and now John Wick has the digital download promotion). Did HTTYD3 and Dumbo have similar promotions? When did tickets go on sale for them?

[Krissykins]

43 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Like the presales i see for theaters around me are going strong the entire weekend, not showing any massive weekend frontloading. 

Plus a chunk of its weekend tickets will actually just be the same people seeing it multiple times. 

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Perfundle said:

Oh, I'm quite grateful for what he's doing. It's just that I'd like to track other family films this summer, and I'm not sure if I should start tracking SLOP2 right now, or wait until a more official announcement.

 

I also feel that the number of days out tickets go on sale and the kind of promotion they have for it is really influencing early presales (e.g. Detective Pikachu had the exclusive trading card promotion, and now John Wick has the digital download promotion). Did HTTYD3 and Dumbo have similar promotions? When did tickets go on sale for them?

I think it’s a bit early to start tracking SLOP2. I would wait for about 30 days out at most since that’s usually when tickets for family films go on sale BUT I would also keep in mind that if it’s presales are wonky or if other films released later on don’t stack up, it did have an extra 30 days of presales. It shouldn’t make that much of a difference since it’s sales right now are very minimal but also something to keep in mind though. 

[Lordmandeep]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Plus a chunk of its weekend tickets will actually just be the same people seeing it multiple times. 

yeah i have to get tickets for gf#2 on sunday 😬 and i am having no luck. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

It's probably pretty obvious, but I think any Thursday night showing 6pm or later on Endgame's OW will be an Endgame showing at literally every theater with 12 screens or less...and probably at theaters with 16 screens or less.

Quote

THE CURSE OF LA LLORONA  

• 1. 6:30p
  2.  
  3. 9:00p

14 screener in Sacto

 

Quote

•  

  PENGUINS (2019) 

  7:00p
  • 1.  
    2. 9:15p

12 screener in Sacto

 

Quote

BREAKTHROUGH (2019)

6:30p

• 1.  
  2. 9:30p
• ======

 

AFTER (2019) 

5:05p

• 1.  
  2. 7:50p
  3.  
  4. 10:30p
• =====

 

LITTLE (2019) 

• 1.  
  2. 7:40p
  3.  
  4. 10:25p

14 screener in Sacto

 

====

 

Those are the only places with partial slates up for Thr, FWIW.  Everyone else just has the post 6pm EG screenings.

 

After double checking, a couple of places do have a partial Thr slate up for Thr afternoon.  Not many though.  Most are still Endgame Only for Thr.

Edited April 16, 2019 by Porthos

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

I think Endgame could still pull 80 and 70+ million on Saturday and Sunday.

 

Like the presales i see for theaters around me are going strong the entire weekend, not showing any massive weekend frontloading. 

Pre-sales for Saturday so far look to be higher than  AIW, wasn't tracking Sunday much but those also seem to be higher an AIW did 82/69. 

There's going to be a lot of spill over b/c so many of those Friday evening shows are filling up.  Friday between 4:30pm and 11:3pm and 8 showings on 2D is 78% at my local.

 

In other news:

 

My local Regal just added two more showings Thur on 2D (not for sale yet) for a 20 total = equal to AIWs final total.  Also added another for the dreaded 3D on Friday (30 showings overall)

 

Lincoln Center is now at 22 showings - 2 more than AIW's final total

 

Overall - in the NYC + NJ Metro area - as of this morning AEG has more theaters, showings and sellouts than AIW on the day of Thur Previews

 

AEG (April 16 - 7am)

 

Theaters: 61

Showings: 687

Reserved Seating: 547

Complete SOs: 142

Total SO's: 273 (Complete + Near - not counted since April 11th)

 

AIW  (April 25 - 5pm)

 

Theaters: 59

Showings: 661

Reserved Seating: 380

Complete SOs: 115

Total SO's: 180 (Complete + Near)

 

 

 

Edited April 16, 2019 by TalismanRing

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Pre-sales for Saturday so far look to be higher than  AIW, wasn't tracking Sunday much but those also seem to be higher an AIW did 82/69. 

There's going to be a lot of spill over b/c so many of those Friday evening shows are filling up.  Friday between 4:30pm and 11:3pm and 8 showings on 2D is 78% at my local.

 

In other news:

 

My local Regal just added two more showings Thur on 2D (not for sale yet) for a 20 total = equal to AIWs final total.  Also added another for the dreaded 3D on Friday (30 showings overall)

 

Lincoln Center is now at 22 showings - 2 more than AIW's final total

 

Overall as of this morning AEG has more theaters, showings and sellouts than AIW on the day of Thur Previews

 

AEG (April 16 - 7am)

 

Theaters: 61

Showings: 687

Reserved Seating: 547

Complete SOs: 142

Total SO's: 273 (Complete + Near - not counted since April 11th)

 

AIW  (April 25 - 5pm)

 

Theaters: 59

Showings: 661

Reserved Seating: 380

Complete SOs: 115

Total SO's: 180 (Complete + Near)

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting tidbit about SS looking stronger than IW SS. I'm sure there will be massive spillover in no small part to upfront demand + film length. 

 

As for your area, I'm still hoping for 900 show times for Thursday by by 5pm, 4/25. I don't know if that's physically possible but I'm very needy right now lmao 

 

 

[Eric the Fall Guy]

1 hour ago, Perfundle said:

Given how early tickets went up for this, and the complete lack of fanfare that they're even being sold, how do you make comparisons regarding presales for family films? Has there been any correlation with early presale numbers and opening weekend numbers for these films, or is it more about the final two weeks leading up to opening night?

 

22 minutes ago, Perfundle said:

Oh, I'm quite grateful for what he's doing. It's just that I'd like to track other family films this summer, and I'm not sure if I should start tracking SLOP2 right now, or wait until a more official announcement.

 

I also feel that the number of days out tickets go on sale and the kind of promotion they have for it is really influencing early presales (e.g. Detective Pikachu had the exclusive trading card promotion, and now John Wick has the digital download promotion). Did HTTYD3 and Dumbo have similar promotions? When did tickets go on sale for them?

So let me answer a few of these questions:

 

1. The first big thing is that I don't really know how much presales starting so early will impact Pets 2, because...there aren't any kids movies to work off of for me right now. I only have 2019 movies, and none of the animated/kids movies have had presales out as long as this had (though if somebody was willing to look into some of the akvalley archives around the Internet and find some stuff for PG/kids movies that had a long pre-sales period, specifically major ones like I2, HT3, Grinch, etc. that'd be amazing) The only movies to open up presales this early were Captain Marvel and Us. Now I'm not going to go through the presales day by day between those movies and Pets, but it's fair to say it's a little unfair to compare Pets to Captain Marvel (although I can guess you can argue they're both 4-quad releases), and it would be ludicrous to compare Pets to Us. So I can't really say anything for that.

 

2. What I can say is that when movies get pre-sales dropped with little to no announcement or fanfare, it's not really the end of the world, and if often picks up once marketing/word comes out. John Wick for instance was only selling in the double digits, but once the Wick/movie theater social media pages started to blare out that tickets were on sale and there was the "buy one, get one of the other movies free" promotion going on, there was a big spike in ticket sales. And when it comes to kids movies, only Disney films and Detective Pikachu had a major "tickets on sale now" promo. Which is understandable. Very few families are willing to pay money for a movie that's so far away. Or at least, Pets' audience of kids/families/Illumination fans aren't as eager to buy tickets right away as, say, Marvel fans. So this selling so little so far out really doesn't mean anything.

 

3. These promotions are a relatively new thing (at least to my knowledge), so I don't know how much impact this will have on sales, but likely not that much. Most of the people who bought tickets to get a Pokemon card or a free Wick movie were probably going to see Pikachu/Wick no matter what, so...

[terrestrial]

Gitesh Pandya‏ @GiteshPandya 12m12 minutes ago

More

Disney's official domestic theater estimate for #AvengersEndgame opening next wknd is 4,400. That would be 2nd best all-time for an April film behind the 4,474 of #InfinityWar, though it still has a chance of beating that record. Some other records may just get broken too.

[Barnack]

IF they do open on less theater I would be curious what could be the condition Disney are asking for.

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

IF they do open on less theater I would be curious what could be the condition Disney are asking for.

What was their highest? Something like 60-65% for SW?

 

Just how greedy can the mouse house be this time