The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cdsacken]

Will bullcrap leak affect presales at all?

[Porthos]

Just now, cdsacken said:

Will bullcrap leak affect presales at all?

Unlikely in either direction.

 

[Cap]

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Unlikely in either direction.

People are scrambling to avoid that bullshit, so I would vote no.

 

Game of Thrones depresses the Post 6PM EST showings on Sunday?  Way more likely.  (I have more on that later.)

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

People are scrambling to avoid that bullshit, so I would vote no.

 

Game of Thrones depresses the Post 6PM EST showings on Sunday?  Way more likely.  (I have more on that later.)

i dont think GOT will affect anything even by judjing this weekends results the drops were fine

[Barnack]

8 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Will bullcrap leak affect presales at all?

 

The type of people that would care a lot is probably buying OW ticket no matter what I would presume.

[cdsacken]

Just now, Barnack said:

 

The type of people that would care a lot is probably buying OW ticket no matter what I would presume.

 

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Unlikely in either direction.

 

Excellent I hope so. So glad I purged most of my social media. Guaranteed I would have watched it last year.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	14	243	5834	24576	76.26%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:               3

Total Seats Sold Today:                  141

 

Infinity War Comps:

1.9672x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 10 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre−sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]
1.1922x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night.
1.0592x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town..

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

1.1922x  $257.689= $307.217

 

Perfect for an Avengers o/w breaker 

 

[DeeCee]

Just counted 53 sellouts on opening day at Event Cinemas in NSW. 

 

https://www.eventcinemas.com.au/Cinemas#state=NSW

 

These are petty much all Gold Class sessions. There’s also more sessions with only 1 or 2 seats left. 1 VMAX session at George St is now effectively sold out. Only the 5 x wheelchair spaces remain. 

[cdsacken]

14 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i dont think GOT will affect anything even by judjing this weekends results the drops were fine

It will affect it just not a ton. Maybe slightly better Saturday (hard to do) or softer Monday drop by a tiny bit (easier to do)

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

1.1922x  $257.689= $307.217

 

Perfect for an Avengers o/w breaker 

 

 

On the other hand, I'm not exactly rushing up the road to Reno to place a bet that EG will have the same weekend internal multiplier that IW had.

[TalismanRing]

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
Curse of La Llorona	897
Breakthrough (Wed)	764
Penguins (Wed)	393
Avengers EG (1 week out)	26,081
Detective Pikachu (3 weeks out)	350

 

Archive under spoiler cut

Spoiler

 

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
Black Panther	35,429	36,302	39,934	65,453
Love Simon	863	1,256	2,907
A Wrinkle In Time	3,698	4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching (1k expansion)	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,980	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2k expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Girl In The Spider's Web	286	691	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	605	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts 2	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880
Widows	310	868	2,219	4,179
Instant Family	230	565	1,325	2,584
Creed II (Wed)	7,005	12,131	15,354	15,559
Ralph 2 (Wed)	6,712	12,083	19,183	15,870
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1846	2,621	2,632
Green Book (1k exp)	387	922	89	2,268
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	3,475
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504	6,235
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621	2,310
Mary Poppins Returns (Wed)	7,713	9,137	16,304	11,857
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063	25,201
Bumblebee	1,553	1,817	3,157	6,056
Second Act	353	611	1,146	1,915
Welcome To Marwen	299	403	658	928
Escape Room	111	368	1,543	7,297
A Dogs Way Home	259	623	1,560	3,257
On the Basis of Sex (2k expand)	537	1,043	2,275	3,511
The Upside	394	1,431	3,769	6,602
Replicas	21	133	352	1,002
Glass	3,106	3,978	6,478	17,810
The Kid Who Would be King	107	318	980
Serenity	6	128	1,074
Miss Bala	350	420	1,041
Lego Movie 2	2,552	4,130	8,601	13,321
What Men Want	1,383	2,505	5,405	9,328
Cold Pursuit	181	827	2,155	4,862
The Prodigy	161	359	847	2,288
Alita (Thur)	4,259	6,072	11,483	15,500
Isn't It Romantic (Wed)	3,576	5.367	12,411	12,304
Happy Death Day 2U (Wed)	1,296	1,843	5,445	5,825
How To Train Your Dragon 2	3,724	6,674	12,935
Fighting With My Family (2.5k exp)	165	368	1,284
Run The Race			338
Madea Family Funeral	1,587	2,482	4,951
Greta	120	287	824
Captain Marvel	33,951	37,060	49,745	64,456
Captive State	60	172	402
Five Feet Apart	613	1,053	2,225
Wonder Park	607	988	1,749
US	10,742	13,597	27,634	39,514
Dumbo	3,069	4,624	9,193	15,842
Unplanned		754	1,397	2,071
The Beach Bum		99	232	592
Shazam!	5,099		5,975 [7+ to 12]	17,143
Pet Sematary	2,116		2,579 [7+ to 12]	8,556
Best of Enemies	251			1,027
Missing Link	162	299	634	1,475
Hellboy	860	1,422	2,561	5,481
After	681	1,098	1,904	3,413
Little	673	1,098	2,450	5,728
Curse of La Llorona	897
Breakthrough (Wed)	764
Penguins (Wed)	393

 

 

 

[TalismanRing]

13 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

On the other hand, I'm not exactly rushing up the road to Reno to place a bet that EG will have the same weekend internal multiplier that IW had.

OTOH I'm assuming AEG will continue to sell some more tickets post AIW's OD total. 

 

If it continues the pace at 1.9672x  (39m = $76.72m Thur) it might end up $357m even below a minuscule TFA multi.

Edited April 16, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Cap]

Southern Maine - Cinemagic 4/14 AEG Opening Weekend

 

Sold	4/2	4/9	4/14	Cap	Current %
IMAX
Thursday	463	582	572	751	76.16
Friday	510	644	715	1797	39.78
Saturday	377	502	541	1762	30.70
Sunday	167	298	357	1630	21.90
Sub Total	1517	2036	2185	5940	36.78%
Recliners
Thursday	227	237	273	328	83.23
Friday	163	242	301	764	39.39
Saturday	109	239	364	822	44.28
Sunday	41	70	114	710	16.05
Sub Total	521	788	1052	2624	40.09%
Stadium
Thursday	448	607	696	1412	49.29
Friday	95	248	347	3384	10.25
Saturday	33	96	142	3384	4.19
Sunday	8	47	56	3176	1.47
Sub Total	584	998	1241	11356	10.92%
Total	2622	3822	4478	19920	22.47%

 

 

Notes:

• Thursday's at 61.18% [1541/2491] sold out for the area.
• The Stadium Theater added 2 Showings (Additional 284 Seats) for Thursday; 1 Showing (Additional 208 Seats) for Sunday.

Thoughts:

• As noted before, our IMAX just got reserved seating so we are a walk-up heavy theater.  These numbers look solid for our chain.  
   
• Pre-Sales are heavily skewed to AEG coming in frontloaded.  I am fully on board with the Thursday Previews and Friday Single Day Record at this point.  It's just going to come back massive.
   
• Those who want the film to crack 300M will be in for a very, very long weekend.  My Sunday Post 6PM showings are DEAD.  Tickets Sold after 6PM: 4 @ IMAX, 4 @ Recliners, 5 @ Stadium.  Ticket sales are avoiding Game of Thrones -- and it's supposed to be a bonkers episode.  You still have the West Coast to pull up Sunday.  It could happen.  I just would not be shocked, at this moment, if we had a steep Sunday drop.  

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Southern Maine - Cinemagic 4/14 AEG Opening Weekend

 

Sold	4/2	4/9	4/14	Cap	Current %
IMAX
Thursday	463	582	572	751	76.16
Friday	510	644	715	1797	39.78
Saturday	377	502	541	1762	30.70
Sunday	167	298	357	1630	21.90
Sub Total	1517	2036	2185	5940	36.78%
Recliners
Thursday	227	237	273	328	83.23
Friday	163	242	301	764	39.39
Saturday	109	239	364	822	44.28
Sunday	41	70	114	710	16.05
Sub Total	521	788	1052	2624	40.09%
Stadium
Thursday	448	607	696	1412	49.29
Friday	95	248	347	3384	10.25
Saturday	33	96	142	3384	4.19
Sunday	8	47	56	3176	1.47
Sub Total	584	998	1241	11356	10.92%
Total	2622	3822	4478	19920	22.47%

 

 

Notes:

• Thursday's at 61.18% [1541/2491] sold out for the area.
• The Stadium Theater added 2 Showings (Additional 284 Seats) for Thursday; 1 Showing (Additional 208 Seats) for Sunday.

Thoughts:

• As noted before, our IMAX just got reserved seating so we are a walk-up heavy theater.  These numbers look solid for our chain.  
   
• Pre-Sales are heavily skewed to AEG coming in frontloaded.  I am fully on board with the Thursday Previews and Friday Single Day Record at this point.  It's just going to come back massive.
   
• Those who want the film to crack 300M will be in for a very, very long weekend.  My Sunday Post 6PM showings are DEAD.  Tickets Sold after 6PM: 4 @ IMAX, 4 @ Recliners, 5 @ Stadium.  Ticket sales are avoiding Game of Thrones -- and it's supposed to be a bonkers episode.  You still have the West Coast to pull up Sunday.  It could happen.  I just would not be shocked, at this moment, if we had a steep Sunday drop.  

it depends what you mean by steep drop around what ? plus i think that it wont affect the ow that much and for sure not the final total we dont know other theaters are doing on sunday and something to remember probably you know it already but the movie is still 10 days away or so most people will see the movie either way before sunday and sunday is the last day of the weekend so i wouldnt expect to have the same sells as friday or saturday and while i believe that GOT will affect it plus the fact that it will be frontloaded probably how much remains to be seen (depends on the reception too ) i believe that it will be fine idk exaxtly but porthos update show that sunday was way up than the last time before expect if i read it wrong of course

[Rebeccas]

7 hours ago, john2000 said:

i dont think GOT will affect anything even by judjing this weekends results the drops were fine

Yeah but this episode was a fluff episode and Episode 3 is the centerpiece battle of the season.

[AhmiiZafii]

                AMC GEORGETOWN. 14

Thursday update

Sales have slowed down over the last few days but will still update what little movement happened. 

 

                              Standard

 

12:00 AM.                 65/80 +1

1:00 AM.                   73/106 - 1

1:15AM.                    20/68. +3

1:30 AM.                   19/74  +18

 

 

                                   3D

 

6:30 PM.                81/82 - 1

11:30 PM.              79/82 - 3

 

                                DOLBY

 

02:00 AM.              95/114. +11

                                              

 

TICKETS SOLD SINCE LAST UPDATE: 29

TOTAL TICKETS:   2079

TICKETS SOLD :    1781

SOLD % :                  85.25%

[Eric the Fall Guy]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

A Quiet Place

2,177

4,003

10,665

Hereditary

659

1,178

3,181

Dog Days (Wed)

115

631

1,536

1,212

Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)

3,651

5,742

20,173

20,102

The Nun

2,082

5,938

13,806

28,881

Predator

1,295

2,476

4,545

13,063

Overlord

299

604

1,599

4,522

Ralph 2 (Wed)

7,005

12,131

19,183

15,559

Green Book (Wed) (1K expansion)

387

922

1,701

2,268

Mary Poppins (Wed)

7,713

9,137

16,304

Glass

3,106

3,978

6,478

17,810

Isn't It Romantic (Wed)

3,576

5,367

12,411

12,304

Breakthrough (Wed)	764
Penguins (Wed)	392
The Curse of La Llorona	896

 

Breakthrough Comps (All 5-Day):

664% of Dog Days (23.9M)

21% of Crazy Rich Asians (7.4M)

197% of Green Book (14.7M)

21% of Isn't It Romantic (4.4M)

 

FWIW, the Dog Days comp would result in a slightly lower gross than Heaven is for Real, which came out on the same Easter weekend in 2014.

 

Penguins (All 5-Day):

6% of Ralph 2 (4.7M)

5% of Mary Poppins Returns (1.6M)

 

That Ralph # seems about right.

 

La Llorona:

41% of A Quiet Place (20.7M)

136% of Hereditary (18.4M)

43% of The Nun (23.1M)

69% of The Predator (17M)

300% of Overlord (30.6M)

29% of Glass (11.6M)

 

So yeah, basically O/U 20M. We'll see how the next few days fall.

 

I'll look at Endgame/Pikachu/Wick in a bit.

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

7 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Will bullcrap leak affect presales at all?

Whoever opts to see any scene from such an event film at shit potato quality is an idiot that should not go to the cinema and communicate with anyone either way.

[AJG]

7 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Will bullcrap leak affect presales at all?

 

Nope. The entire Xmen Origins movie leaked and I don’t think that affected it’s BO at all.

[FlashMaster659]

Only been about 5 hours and Endgame has quadrupled IW's first day of pre-sales in South Korea