The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Cap]

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Cappoedameron said:

I honestly just want to be honest, I don't understand this obsession with pre-ordering tickets.

Since you're trolling, I will troll you back with:

 

Cause if I pre-order my tickets on Atom, my Disney Rewards Points automatically kick in. 😈

[stealthyfrog]

I only pre-order tickets if I anticipate strong demand for a film that I want to see opening weekend, like Endgame. Pikachu pre-sales are pretty low, so I save the convenience fee by walking up, and I'll probably get decent seats.

[Biggestgeekever]

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/avengers-endgame-box-office-second-weekend-1203201855/

 

Long Shot; $9-16M
UglyDolls: $12-16M

The Intruder; $9-16M

 

These are some definite cover-your-ass projections 

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, Nova said:

Time to take matters into my own hands

 @TwoMisfits I'm gonna need you to start telling all your mom and dad friends that they gotta take their kids to see Detective Pikachu. And then make sure you tell them to tell all their mom and dad friends. And then they tell all their mom and dad friends etc etc You're doing them a huge favor by recommending the movie and they'll just pay it forward to other moms and dads by also recommending the movie  I'll be watching the Fandango tracker to see if you actually did this or not btw so you can't lie about it either 

 

Let me see the movie 1st:)...I AM planning to do that (but if you wanna encourage WB to put out an opening weekend ticket deal, I'll even go 1st thing OW, so I can spread the word of mouth sooner:)...

 

But, my kids do share your enthusiasm, so they are already sharing the word with their buddies b/c they don't need more than a trailer to be convinced it's awesome:)...

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Nova said:

You guys think these are jokes but like @TwoMisfits enthusiasm for Wonder Park willed it to like a 3x multiplier off a low opening. Clearly she has some mythical power that can elevate kids movies to new heights!

Thanks, I think:)...it didn't have Endgame taking 10 screens of a 16 screen theater, though...that did help it (and the Atom deals did, too:)...pitching a movie for a Saturday night in 3d for $5/person is a way easier pitch to make:)...you just tell the parents their kids get to feel a roller coaster ride, and they are in:)...

[Poseidon]

I think people are looking at Pika Pika with wrong expectations. This is neither a sequel to Jurassic World, one of the biggest movies of all time, nor is this a Potter-Franchise.

I'd rather look at movies like Despicable me 2/3, Minions or Pets as a perfect comparison.

 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Cappoedameron said:

I honestly just want to be honest, I don't understand this obsession with pre-ordering tickets. I really don't, and maybe I'm the minority. I never have a desire to see any movie on a Thursday night(Endgame I saw because my friend ordered tickets) for previews because I have work the next day. I traditionally go to movies either Friday night or sometime on Saturday.

 

I also never pre-order tickets,  the only time I ever did was for Endgame and that was only 3 days before it opened. Captain Marvel and Aquaman I ordered tickets the day I was going to see it and I was able to get in no problem and get great seats.

 

I don't understand what is the big deal with pre-orders and how that has any merit on how a film will perform at the box office.

This is still first and foremost a box office forum.  Talking about how films are raking in the dough is kinda the raison d'être of this place.

 

Pre-sales gives us an idea of previews.  Previews gives us an idea of the OW might be like.  Beyond that, sure, it's WOM and other factors.  But having a head start on expectations when it comes to the amount of money a film is gonna have is..

 

... Well something some folks 'round these parts are gonna be interested in.

 

===

 

As for the second half of your comment about "well what about the folks who don't buy ahead of time", that's what historical context is for.  Like, if we see X amount of dollars for a SW film we kinda know the range for the OW because that property is pre-sale heavy.  Likewise a family film is projected to have a much stronger internal multiplier simply because folks don't buy ahead of time.

 

Then there's the point that when folks buy a ticket.  Someone might buy something ahead of time, but might wait 'till the Sunday before instead of two or three weeks ago.  Thing is, we generally have historical context which helps here as well.  We generally know which type of films get strong initial pre-sales and which get later pre-sales.

 

But it's still all more an art than a science.  If you're coming here expecting precision and certainty, especially for things we don't have a lot of historical context for, then this thread might not be for you.

 

Which is fine.  Plenty of other threads on this forum.

Edited May 2, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

I think people are looking at Pika Pika with wrong expectations. This is neither a sequel to Jurassic World, one of the biggest movies of all time, nor is this a Potter-Franchise.

I'd rather look at movies like Despicable me 2/3, Minions or Pets as a perfect comparison.

 

So would I (if not those examples).  I just don't have that data.

 

I also know that if I posted the data without any comps, folks would constantly be asking me for comps. So I chose those two as the least bad I had.

[Porthos]

Though @Poseidon does bring up an interesting point.

 

What sort of internal multiplier do folks think we might be looking at when it comes to Pika Pika?  That is the boost from previews to the rest of the OW.

 

I remember @TalismanRing, I think, posting a link to a new preview chart recently, but I can't remember exactly what page it was on since it was in the Endgame maelstrom. Anyone remember what and where it was from?

 

Might be good to get the internal multiplier comps ready ahead of time and figure out which ones might be best suited to use here.

[Biggestgeekever]

Rampage and Tomb Raider might be good comparisons because of the video game thing; Rampage especially because it did do great family business.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Rampage and Tomb Raider might be good comparisons because of the video game thing; Rampage especially because it did do great family business.

The question is whether anyone bothered to get data from them. I tried to go back into the thread to see any comps for similar films but unfortunately there wasn’t any data. 

 

Hence why i used the ones I’ve been using lol 

[Eric S'ennui]

14 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Rampage and Tomb Raider might be good comparisons because of the video game thing; Rampage especially because it did do great family business.

@Stewart @BudStarr Help a brother out maybe?

[Poseidon]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Though @Poseidon does bring up an interesting point.

 

What sort of internal multiplier do folks think we might be looking at when it comes to Pika Pika?  That is the boost from previews to the rest of the OW.

 

I remember @TalismanRing, I think, posting a link to a new preview chart recently, but I can't remember exactly what page it was on since it was in the Endgame maelstrom. Anyone remember what and where it was from?

 

Might be good to get the internal multiplier comps ready ahead of time and figure out which ones might be best suited to use here.

I think, Pika is THE Family blockbuster of the season. The movie kids ask their parents to see, while movies like TS 4 and Lion King are probably the movie, parents ask their kids to see. That's why those movies will be way more active in terms of presales. 

The age group Pika Pika depends on, in my opinion, is the group, who isn't reflected by presales.
Everything we are looking at in terms of presales is the Bonus, the young adult interest group delivers.


I might be totally wrong, but from the first trailer on, I saw this movie totally happening. 
I think we got blinded by Endgame, but Pika will find the sun blocker in the right moment and then it will shine itself. 

[Legion Again]

13 minutes ago, Nova said:

The question is whether anyone bothered to get data from them. I tried to go back into the thread to see any comps for similar films but unfortunately there wasn’t any data. 

 

Hence why i used the ones I’ve been using lol 

Think biggestgeek might have meant for IM’s?   

 

Rampage 35.75/2.4=14.9  

TR 23.6/2.1=11.2

[TalismanRing]

18 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Though @Poseidon does bring up an interesting point.

 

What sort of internal multiplier do folks think we might be looking at when it comes to Pika Pika?  That is the boost from previews to the rest of the OW.

 

I remember @TalismanRing, I think, posting a link to a new preview chart recently, but I can't remember exactly what page it was on since it was in the Endgame maelstrom. Anyone remember what and where it was from?

 

Might be good to get the internal multiplier comps ready ahead of time and figure out which ones might be best suited to use here.

Full and updated weekly HSX Preview Chart

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O0sNH_An1oCqxZQo0hd1v6lq0KTw1uCODh4_UflRA8Y/edit#gid=1884622349

 

Or do you mean the one I culled for Dumbo?

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Full and updated weekly HSX Preview Chart

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1O0sNH_An1oCqxZQo0hd1v6lq0KTw1uCODh4_UflRA8Y/edit#gid=1884622349

 

Or do you mean the one I culled for Dumbo?

Nope, that was it. 👍 👍 👍 

 

"Late show box office" was the keywords I needed to use. No wonder I couldn't find it on a Google Search.

 

Many thanks.

Edited May 2, 2019 by Porthos

[stealthyfrog]

41 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

I think people are looking at Pika Pika with wrong expectations. This is neither a sequel to Jurassic World, one of the biggest movies of all time, nor is this a Potter-Franchise.

I'd rather look at movies like Despicable me 2/3, Minions or Pets as a perfect comparison.

 

Pokemon has a strong built-in fanbase of older children and younger adults, so I think we can expect it to be more front-loaded than the average family film.

 

[Perfundle]

20 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Rampage and Tomb Raider might be good comparisons because of the video game thing; Rampage especially because it did do great family business.

Going through akvalley's archives, they don't look like good comparisons at all. Neither movie had a first-day spike - both movies actually sold two tickets each for opening night on their first day of presales. Also, there wasn't any ramping up in ticket sales until 4-5 days until the opening.

[Legion Again]

23 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

17:00 Pacific 4/30/19 (End of Discount Tues)  

1	87.4%	Avengers: Endgame
2	2.2%	Captain Marvel
3	1.9%	Breakthrough
4	1.6%	The Curse of La Llorona
5	1.1%	Shazam!   

 

Shazam is back, seem like Breakthrough might have had a good Tues?      

 

Endgame’s share falls a lot (~14x rest->7x). As expected, since it sees minimal admits impact with demand so high whereas other movies are selling almost double tickets today. 

17:00 Pacific 5/1/19 (End of 1st Wednesday)   

1	91.7%	Avengers: Endgame
2	1.4%	The Curse of La Llorona
3	1.3%	Captain Marvel
4	0.7%	Breakthrough
5	0.5%	Shazam!   

Things moving closer back toward Monday as discount vanishes from the hours, but not fully there. Not going to make any concrete predictions here, but would not be surprised with CM back in the top 3. Maybe we get to see a new movie or two show up tomorrow.

 

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Nope, that was it. 👍 👍 👍 

 

"Late show box office" was the keywords I needed to use. No wonder I couldn't find it on a Google Search.

 

Many thanks.

@Nova 

 

One thing we should to keep in mind on comps from that doc in the future is that it rolls in all early showings into the 'late show box office' number.  That's why Aquaman (which I was trying to also use as a keyword search in this thread as I remember discussion about its number) for instance is listed at 13.7 even though it's previews were 'really' 9m (13.7 = 2.9 Sat + 1.8 Wed + 9.0 Thur).

 

Just something to keep in mind for SLOP2 and any other films that have early access/atom/whatever showings.

Edited May 2, 2019 by Porthos