The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[VanillaSkies]

6 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

You comparing a CBM to a family movie.....

 

thats not how it works. CBM are always pre sale heavy and family are walk up heavy 

Yeah.... and there is no built in fan base for Pokemon ......
That argument is getting a little tired. This movie is certainly comparable to the more family friendly of the CBM of past years. 

No one is saying that Pika isn't going to do good, and presales certainly point towards 50-60 million opening as expected. 

But the hyperbole like "surging" when it is just simply staying consistent is misleading, especially to those who aren't well versed in analyzing the data. 

 

Also, in the week leading up to release it's normal for presales to increase with each passing day. 

Surging would be a 10-12% gain each day. 

Gaining 2-3% over the course of a day is hardly a surge........

Edited May 7, 2019 by VanillaSkies

[Porthos]

Pika PIka has pulled ahead of FFH on the hourly tracker for Fandango for the last hour we have updated data.

 

FFH?  More like FFHLOP. 

[VanillaSkies]

Just now, Porthos said:

Pika PIka has pulled ahead of FFH on the hourly tracker for Fandango for the last hour we have updated data.

 

FFH?  More like FFHLOP. 

That's it, fire Fiege!

Stop production on all future MCU films

[dakus]

6 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Comparing to that very google spreadsheet you posted, it's miles behind Antman and the Wasp's Monday number, and only a little over Spiderverse.

Also, 1pm est was about 10 hours ago... I think you mean 1am est.

Pikachu will still be gaining probably another 1200-1300 sales or so today. You can’t cant compare it to other movies yet.

[Nova]

@Tinalera the first page has a bunch of links that provide us data from Fandango and Movietickets. 

 

There is also the google spread sheet that @CoolEric258 has put together. Using a combo of everything is probably the best way to go about things. 

[Minnale101]

4 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Yeah.... and there is no built in fan base for Pokemon ......
That argument is getting a little tired. This movie is certainly comparable to the more family friendly of the CBM of past years. 

No one is saying that Pika isn't going to do good, and presales certainly point towards 50-60 million opening as expected. 

But the hyperbole like "surging" when it is just simply staying consistent is misleading, especially to those who aren't well versed in analyzing the data. 

 

Also, in the week leading up to release it's normal for presales to increase with each passing day. 

Surging would be a 10-12% gain each day. 

Gaining 2-3% over the course of a day is hardly a surge........

This isn’t a typical movie Pokemon

 

i would agree with if the movie was live adaption of Pokémon red and blue 

 

where there’s some serious story and lots of action 

 

hardcores would crazy for and pre sales would be heavy 

 

but this a comedy movie with Ryan Reynolds voicing pikachu as detective 

 

its been marketed as family movie since the first trailer. 

 

Tell me a CBM that’s PG rated 

[YM!]

11 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Comparing to that very google spreadsheet you posted, it's miles behind Antman and the Wasp's Monday number, and only a little over Spiderverse.

Also, 1pm est was about 10 hours ago... I think you mean 1am est.

I imagine Spider-Verse is a bit more older skewing than Pikachu and Ant Man And The Wasp although family friendly was frontloaded for an MCU film.

 

I think Dumbo and Shazam! are probably the best comparisons for it.

[Tinalera]

14 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Here are the hourly Fandango sales from pulse over the last 24 hour period.

Generally a very efficient tool for analyzing presales.

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_past24hours.txt

Thanks to you as well! This is amazing work

[VanillaSkies]

1 minute ago, Minnale101 said:

This isn’t a typical movie Pokemon

 

i would agree with if the movie was live adaption of Pokémon red and blue 

 

where there’s some serious story and lots of action 

 

hardcores would crazy for and pre sales would be heavy 

 

but this a comedy movie with Ryan Reynolds voicing pikachu as detective 

 

its been marketed as family movie since the first trailer. 

 

Tell me a CBM that’s PG rated 

You just keep posting the same tired argument all day long on here.... 

That doesn't make it any more right than someone who compares it to a CBM movie. 

 

We all know that there are NO good comps for this one at this point because of it's uniqueness in being a fan driven franchise, but trying to appeal to a wider audience by being more kid friendly. 

 

The truth is it has just as much of a chance as performing like a family friendly CBM like Antman or Shazam than a regular family film like a Disney remake. 

[VanillaSkies]

3 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Thanks to you as well! This is amazing work

Not my work. 

But yes, it is an amazing tool we have.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

This isn’t a typical movie Pokemon

 

i would agree with if the movie was live adaption of Pokémon red and blue 

 

where there’s some serious story and lots of action 

 

hardcores would crazy for and pre sales would be heavy 

 

but this a comedy movie with Ryan Reynolds voicing pikachu as detective 

 

its been marketed as family movie since the first trailer. 

 

Tell me a CBM that’s PG rated 

I'm not gonna get into the whether there is a hardcore fanbase discussion again but @VanillaSkies is correct that Pika's performance today looks more like a normal Monday-before-release boost than a huge surge, although the incomplete data from Sunday makes comps kinda annoying.

[Minnale101]

1 minute ago, VanillaSkies said:

You just keep posting the same tired argument all day long on here.... 

That doesn't make it any more right than someone who compares it to a CBM movie. 

 

We all know that there are NO good comps for this one at this point because of it's uniqueness in being a fan driven franchise, but trying to appeal to a wider audience by being more kid friendly. 

 

The truth is it has just as much of a chance as performing like a family friendly CBM like Antman or Shazam than a regular family film like a Disney remake. 

You keep misinterpreting this movie. I keep repeating myself 

 

I find it hard to believe people can’t tell difference between a family friendly comedy movie that’s PG and comic book movies which are PG - 13

 

but here we are 

 

 

[VanillaSkies]

6 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I imagine Spider-Verse is a bit more older skewing than Pikachu and Ant Man And The Wasp although family friendly was frontloaded for an MCU film.

 

I think Dumbo and Shazam! are probably the best comparisons for it.

Quite fair, and I agree Shazam is a good comparison. 

And it's performing quite the same as Shazam on it's first Monday. Shazam opened to 53 million, which puts Pika's opening in the 50-60 million range, which is exactly where the expectations and tracking have been the last few weeks. Presales are simply another metric that is pointing in the same direction as early tracking. 

[Minnale101]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

I'm not gonna get into the whether there is a hardcore fanbase discussion again but @VanillaSkies is correct that Pika's performance today looks more like a normal Monday-before-release boost than a huge surge, although the incomplete data from Sunday makes comps kinda annoying.

I know that but compared to other family movies release this year it’s bigger.

 

i wanna wait until the whole day is over. In an hour and 20 mins then I’ll show you the comparisons

[Nova]

Detective Pikachu will probably end up around

70% of what Ant-man and the wasp did for its Monday on Pulse (6,613) 

53% of Aquaman (8,502) 

50% of Fallen Kingdom (9,310) 

130% of HTTYD (3,724) 

155% of Dumbo (3,069) 

310% of CR (1,560) 

25% of I2 (20,872) 

 

*These are just estimates for where I think Pika will wind up for Monday. But the data is there so when everything gets finalized for Monday, can just use some of these comps 

[Minnale101]

that Shazam comparison isn’t accurate. 

 

The movie performed lower on Saturday than it did on Friday 

 

Did not play like a family friendly movie at all. 

Edited May 7, 2019 by Minnale101

[VanillaSkies]

1 minute ago, Minnale101 said:

You keep misinterpreting this movie. I keep repeating myself 

 

I find it hard to believe people can’t tell difference between a family friendly comedy movie that’s PG and comic book movies which are PG - 13

 

but here we are 

 

 

 

Sorry, but your premise is that CBM's aren't family friendly, and we know that to not be true. 

In fact, MCU is known for it's epic Saturday increases specifically because they are skewing towards families during the week. You are putting far too much emphasis on pg vs pg-13 rating. 

And again, no one is saying that it isn't going to do well. 

It's pre-sales are just not currently pointing towards a breakout beyond what is expected. 

[Minnale101]

1 minute ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

Sorry, but your premise is that CBM's aren't family friendly, and we know that to not be true. 

In fact, MCU is known for it's epic Saturday increases specifically because they are skewing towards families during the week. You are putting far too much emphasis on pg vs pg-13 rating. 

And again, no one is saying that it isn't going to do well. 

It's pre-sales are just not currently pointing towards a breakout beyond what is expected. 

I didn’t ask but what are you expecting ? 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

that Shazam comparison isn’t accurate. 

 

The movie performed lower on Saturday than it did on Friday 

 

Did not play like a family friendly movie at all. 

Because it had larger previews than a similar sized family movie would have, that's why it dropped on Saturday. 

[VanillaSkies]

6 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

that Shazam comparison isn’t accurate. 

 

The movie performed lower on Saturday than it did on Friday 

 

Did not play like a family friendly movie at all. 

 

Family movies often have a muted Saturday on opening weekend. 

Dumbo, which is pg rating and definitely family friendly had only a 14% increase on it's first Saturday. 

That's not abnormal, even for a family film. 

It also is very dependent on how much of a Thursday gross makes up it's Friday numbers, and with Thursday previews now starting as soon as 4pm, Friday numbers are being inflated even more than before, thus making for a smaller Saturday increase.