The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Minnale101]

I mean detective Pikachu did 5.7 million with no imax shows for previews 

 

at the the very least I see Godzilla at 6.3 million 

[Cookson]

Honestly the previews SEEM to be doing what they need to. Hopefully WOM travels, and after seeing the audience score on RT people will start buying or convinced to do some walk up buying the rest of the weekend and next week.

Edited May 31, 2019 by Cookson

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

Zilla was 21853 at 5pm, so a little under. My times are all in CT btw.

My bad.  My brain defaulted to PST for some stupid reason. 

 

In that case, and taking into account what @TalismanRing reminded me about, 6.5m looking likely then?

[Cooper Legion]

On 5/29/2019 at 5:14 PM, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/29/19 (End of Wed)  

1	41.2%	Aladdin
2	10.4%	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
3	10.4%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
4	8%	Rocketman
5	5.7%    Avengers: Endgame   

2nd place, by the skin of its teeth! What I didn’t expect was Rocket-ingIntoTheTopFive-Man.    

 

Wick looking nice, but it is after all adult skewing on our first normal weekday in a long time.

17 PT 5/30/19 (End of Thurs)  

1	31%	Aladdin
2	22.7%	Godzilla: King of the Monsters
3	15.2%	Rocketman
4	6.3%	Ma
5	5.9%    John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum

Goodnight sweet prince.     

 

Godzilla still in 2. Iirc Aladdin hit 1 end of Wed and Wick 4 hours before end of Thurs, but both against weaker competitors.    

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

12 minutes ago, Menor said:

Pulse comps for Godzilla (its pacing slightly behind Aladdin so I'm assuming that's where it'll finish, at about 26k for the day).

 

PR2: 5.1

JW: FK: 8.63

Aladdin: 6.75

Pikachu: 6.18

Venom: 5.5 

Mission Impossible Fallout: 7.2

AMATW: 8.28

FB2: 5

Aquaman: 6.84

John Wick 3: 4.83

 

Since it seems to be doing well on IMAX, going with 6.

 

6.5-7 actually considering that Aladdin has probably been depressing Pulse #s for other films a bit compared to PR2 which pretty much only had 5th/6th weekend BP as it's competition. @Porthos see here for comps

Edited May 31, 2019 by Menor

[tonytr87]

This thread is so strange to me. Unless it's an OW tracking estimate I have no idea what these numbers mean and why anyone would track anything for individual theaters. 

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

This thread is so strange to me. Unless it's an OW tracking estimate I have no idea what these numbers mean and why anyone would track anything for individual theaters. 

Come on, it is called buzz tracking thread, anything that can track the buzz are in, of course individual theaters counts for that matter   

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

This thread is so strange to me. Unless it's an OW tracking estimate I have no idea what these numbers mean and why anyone would track anything for individual theaters. 

By tracking individual theaters consistently and with the right comps we can get a sense of the preview number.  Getting a sense of the preview number can get us a sense of the opening weekend range.  

 

At the very least we can see when tracking is out of whack, in either direction. 

 

This thread ain't perfect and it certainly can't see legs of films like Aladdin, for instance.  But I think I'd put the overall track record of this thread against the overall record of places like Deadline and Variety any day of the week. 

[doublejack]

4 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

This thread is so strange to me. Unless it's an OW tracking estimate I have no idea what these numbers mean and why anyone would track anything for individual theaters. 

Extrapolation. From looking at sales in individual theaters, we can compare to other openers and then extrapolate the preview sales total domestically. That can then be used to extrapolate the OW number. The math is fuzzy so it is not possible to come super close, usually, but it will get us into the ballpark.

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, doublejack said:

Extrapolation. From looking at sales in individual theaters, we can compare to other openers and then extrapolate the preview sales total domestically. That can then be used to extrapolate the OW number. The math is fuzzy so it is not possible to come super close, usually, but it will get us into the ballpark.

Actually this thread is pretty close most of the time. Even Endgame's high-variance preview-number was predicted pretty well here.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

Actually this thread is pretty close most of the time. Even Endgame's high-variance preview-number was predicted pretty well here.

   

 

Spoiler

Still think I should have dropped the mic and retired after that one.  I will never ever EVER top it.

 

[tonytr87]

21 minutes ago, Porthos said:

By tracking individual theaters consistently and with the right comps we can get a sense of the preview number.  Getting a sense of the preview number can get us a sense of the opening weekend range.  

 

At the very least we can see when tracking is out of whack, in either direction. 

 

This thread ain't perfect and it certainly can't see legs of films like Aladdin, for instance.  But I think I'd put the overall track record of this thread against the overall record of places like Deadline and Variety any day of the week. 

 

Thanks for the info. It's always been weird to me cause it all seems so anecdotal, not to mention tedious for those doing the leg work tracking theaters and showtimes, etc. 

[Tinalera]

Im relatively new, can only speak for myself, but i find kind of intriguing. I post for two london ontario canada theatres and after a bit watching the number of seats sold over time i find interesting. Plus knowing my small little bit is part of a collective i contribute to. 

 

Its an interesting hobby for me and i learn stuff about the business side.  

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Tinalera said:

Im relatively new, can only speak for myself, but i find kind of intriguing. I post for two london ontario canada theatres and after a bit watching the number of seats sold over time i find interesting. Plus knowing my small little bit is part of a collective i contribute to. 

 

Its an interesting hobby for me and i learn stuff about the business side.  

Plus the posts can be "like"/"reaction" magnets.  Everyone appreciates those.

[Tinalera]

I will say  gain appreciation for those who do this for a living and then report to studio bosses.

[WP Kelley]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

Still early

 

89% Verified with 156 votes

91% Unverified with 1,374 votes

Could anyone please explain how to find the 2 numbers? I can't seem to find a split between verified and unverified.

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, WP Kelley said:

Could anyone please explain how to find the 2 numbers? I can't seem to find a split between verified and unverified.

Click on more info and you have 2 links, one for verified audience(with fandango stubs) and one for all audience.

[Maximum Avery]

5 hours ago, tonytr87 said:

This thread is so strange to me. Unless it's an OW tracking estimate I have no idea what these numbers mean and why anyone would track anything for individual theaters. 

imagine this as a political campaign... you go around putting your name out there... put money in it, DO POLLS, speeches, go door to door.. get as much demo data as possible so you can mold your voter success accordingly.. with more data come better results, but and this is an important part of this analogy.. you are not 100% sure before the voting day... this is the best site for BO so far as i have seen and that is thanks to this _extrapolating_ fly fishing in the dark... and thanks to these dilligent crazy good people doing it... /bow

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

13 hours ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

WEEKLY UPDATE - Godzilla Imax doing well

 

GODZILLA - THURSDAY MAY 30

 

IMAX

4:00pm - 66/343

7:00pm - 197/343

10:00pm - 76/343

FINAL UPDATE FOR GODZILLA

 

GODZILLA - THURSDAY MAY 30

 

IMAX

4:00pm - 131/343

7:00pm - 253/343

10:00pm - 148/343

[DAJK]

I'll do full comps in a moment here but so far tonight if Rocketman/BoRhap comp at this theatre holds true, RM is heading for a weekend around 35M.