The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[a2k]

13 minutes ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

TROS NEEDS a 200 OW and the same Multi as RO then it would only need 20 mil to cross 700 DOM

 

Your 700 Dom isnt nearly as crazy as I thought it was.

 

Obviously WOM will dictate but still fun to think about it.

700 dom with 200 ow is incredibly tough

3.77x TFA

3.43x RO // even as a spin-off, not a direct sequel, strong reception, fell well short of an ultra-hyped TFA's 3.77x

2.82x TLJ

2.53x SOLO (inflated Sun in ow)

3.50x TROS (200 * 3.5 = 700)

 

Optimistic legs scenario imo is splitting TLJ and RO for 3.125x, along with high 200s ow.

208.0 ow with that multi gives 650 dom.

 

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

700 dom with 200 ow is incredibly tough

3.77x TFA

3.43x RO // even as a spin-off, not a direct sequel, strong reception, fell well short of an ultra-hyped TFA's 3.77x

2.82x TLJ

2.53x SOLO (inflated Sun in ow)

3.50x TROS (200 * 3.5 = 700)

 

Optimistic legs scenario imo is splitting TLJ and RO for 3.125x, along with high 200s ow.

208.0 ow with that multi gives 650 dom.

 

Oh I dont disagree I have my prediction at 650 but I thought the 700 was super absurd but it's not impossible

[XXR vs XXR]

On 12/14/2019 at 11:06 AM, VenomXXR said:

 

TOTAL

1301 tickets sold out of 3638 seats available (35.76%)

+ 190 from this update. Will do a complete update tomorrow, then a final update on Thursday @ 4pm.

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Do You have information on how many theatres you are tracking? I mean selling 138k tickets in matter of hours is something that it didn't even did for 1st 24 hours.

If that's from usual 80-82% theatres, that will be about $68-70mn previews. That doesn't seems to be right. Something fishy there.

I dont think all of them were done in few hours. I think MTC listed them late. Its just what my scrapper pulled.

 

One thing is my process cannot over represent. if anything it under represented data as it does not pull unreserved screens and there are theaters with multiple sellouts that I dont pull. I am doing this for 12 weeks and there is no way I am pulling bogus data. Let us take it offline. I can upload the raw data that you can verify.

 

1m was a joke. I am thinking 50m previews all along. I dont think it can keep that pace.

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think all of them were done in few hours. I think MTC listed them late. Its just what my scrapper pulled.

 

One thing is my process cannot over represent. if anything it under represented data as it does not pull unreserved screens and there are theaters with multiple sellouts that I dont pull. I am doing this for 12 weeks and there is no way I am pulling bogus data. Let us take it offline. I can upload the raw data that you can verify.

 

1m was a joke. I am thinking 50m previews all along. I dont think it can keep that pace.

50m previews?

is this good?

 

Edit: nvm lol

Edited December 17, 2019 by Jabba'sMoofmilker

[VanillaSkies]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think all of them were done in few hours. I think MTC listed them late. Its just what my scrapper pulled.

 

One thing is my process cannot over represent. if anything it under represented data as it does not pull unreserved screens and there are theaters with multiple sellouts that I dont pull. I am doing this for 12 weeks and there is no way I am pulling bogus data. Let us take it offline. I can upload the raw data that you can verify.

 

1m was a joke. I am thinking 50m previews all along. I dont think it can keep that pace.

 

You've been so accurate and bang on these past few months, I would hope nobody thinks that the data you pull is bogus at this point!

Thank you for all that you do. 

[Knights of Ren]

 

[keysersoze123]

Despite huge burst in ticket numbers I have seen, I still dont want to believe it beating Endgame previews. Stupid tracking for Toy Story has ensured I take all these tracking services with a grain of salt.

[Deep Wang]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Despite huge burst in ticket numbers I have seen, I still dont want to believe it beating Endgame previews. Stupid tracking for Toy Story has ensured I take all these tracking services with a grain of salt.

There's no chance it beats Endgame.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

700 dom with 200 ow is incredibly tough

3.77x TFA

3.43x RO // even as a spin-off, not a direct sequel, strong reception, fell well short of an ultra-hyped TFA's 3.77x

2.82x TLJ

2.53x SOLO (inflated Sun in ow)

3.50x TROS (200 * 3.5 = 700)

 

Optimistic legs scenario imo is splitting TLJ and RO for 3.125x, along with high 200s ow.

208.0 ow with that multi gives 650 dom.

 

FYI the release date for SW9 is perfect for big multi. Closer to SW7 than SW8 which released a week early and christmas eve fell on 2nd saturday and so its 2nd weekend drop was ridiculously bad. Please keep that in mind before projecting multis.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Knights of Ren said:

 

Oh my god, and here I thought Scott had already lost all credibility

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Deep Wang said:

There's no chance it beats Endgame.

I agree. Again please dont put plain statements like that. This is just previews we are talking about and even that is impossible. Market is lot more busies than when Endgame opened. That had like 70% of screens !!!!

 

But final week sales of SW9 should be higher than endgame bcos endgame was almost full at that time and had limited growth potential

 

BTW Is it possible for to get another update on thursday. It would be good to get final number for long term purpose.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

On 12/16/2019 at 10:26 AM, Jayhawk the Hutt said:

 

TROS 12/16 Update #10 (Last Update 12/13)

Day	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Avg, Ticket Price	Gross	% of Seats Sold	(+) Previous Tickets	(+) Previous Gross
Thursday	2235	3252	$16.54	$38,931.75	68.73%	(+) 107	(+) $1,741.75
Friday	2907	5117	$14.62	$43,746.50	56.81%	(+) 143	(+) $2,231.75
Saturday	2787	5117	$14.62	$40,899.50	54.47%	(+) 217	(+) $3,241.00
Sunday	1932	4895	$14.53	$27,943.50	39.47%	(+) 176	(+) $2,678.50
Total	9861	18381	$15.37	$151,521.25	53.65%	(+) 643	(+) $9,893.00

 

Overall, a very strong week, preview sales pace is strong and the weekend numbers continue to impress. Will be doing daily updates from now on until Thursday.

 

TROS 12/17 Updates #11 (Last Update 12/16(

Day	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Avg, Ticket Price	Gross	% of Seats Sold	(+) Previous Tickets	(+) Previous Gross
Thursday	2298	3252	$16.54	$39,930.00	70.66%	(+) 63	(+) $998.25
Friday	3013	5141	$14.40	$45,384.50	58.61%	(+) 106	(+) $1,638.00
Saturday	2886	5223	$14.32	$42,444.25	55.26%	(+) 99	(+) $1,544.75
Sunday	2009	5223	$14.32	$29,034.25	38.46%	(+) 77	(+) $1,090.75
Total	10206	18839	$15.36	$156,793.00	54.17%	(+) 345	(+) $5,271.75

 

Nice increase again, sales really ramping up.

[keysersoze123]

hey Guys,

   I found out an issue with my SW9 preview data. Please ignore it for now. It seems data got mixed with Day 2 BO. I will update and post later. Last update was not right.

 

Sorry for posting wrong data. Should never update that late in the night.

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

hey Guys,

   I found out an issue with my SW9 preview data. Please ignore it for now. It seems data got mixed with Day 2 BO. I will update and post later. Last update was not right.

 

Sorry for posting wrong data. Should never update that late in the night.

F

[Gavin Feng]

https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-global-opening-box-office-1202810995/

Quote

Recently we hear from exhibition that stateside advance ticket sales are on par with Last Jedi four days before opening and indicate a $200M opening despite the fact that tracking as the J.J. Abrams-directed ninth-quel at $175M. There was an upbeat response coming out of the Hollywood premiere last night, with the feeling that the movie had course-corrected the flyaway hairs in the Star Wars canon from Rian Johnson’s Last Jedi, so there’s potential for over-indexing. Reviews hit after 12:01 AM on Wednesday, Dec. 18.

Skywalker will play in 4,300+ theaters by Friday including over 3,200 3D locations, 415 IMAX screens, 850 Premium Large Format screens and 275 D-Box/4D locations.Fan event screenings at 450 theatres will take place at 5PM Thursday before 6PM previews nationwide. Additionally, 21 theatres in major markets will run 9 film Star Wars Marathons (kicking off Wednesday evening, leading into the Thursday 5pm showing of Skywalker.

I hear from exhibition sources that Disney is enforcing a four week engagement play in each venue’s largest auditorium for a film rental of 65%. Theaters are to provide no passes for the first two weeks of engagement, and no discount tickets outside of a theater’s one weekly discount night. Three trailers must play on every print of Skywalker: Fox’s Call of the Wild, Marvel’s Black Widow and Disney’s Mulan. Any breach of these rules will result in a film rental of 70%.

 

 

[raulbalarezo]

 

[Deep Wang]

 

18 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

"Recently we hear from exhibition BOT that stateside advance ticket sales are on par with Last Jedi four days before opening"

 

[AdrianL]

10 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

 

Those comments about Black Widow are insulting... she was a major player in the biggest movie of all time. 

[Porthos]

*wakes up*

*catches up on thread*

 

Oh, Scott.