The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[RockyMountain]

2 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Begun, the TROS Wars have.

If I had to guess there won't be too many fan wars about this movie. Generally speaking from the reactions I have seen from a lot of people that were critical of it they still generally say that the movie was fun. And as long as a movie is fun it usually doesn't get a huge amount of backlash.

[infamous5445]

Since TROS is on par with TLJ advance tickets, does that mean it's going to have a slightly smaller opening than it because of growth of presales?

 

Edited December 18, 2019 by infamous5445

[Legion Again]

Well thanks for clearing that up 😂

Quote

Disney — as it always does with the event releases it now puts out multiple times a year — is trying to keep expectations relatively low with studio projections of at least $160 million from more than 4,300 screens. Independent trackers are officially projecting a $175-205 million opening, but multiple analysts who spoke with TheWrap say that a $200 million-plus result is extremely likely.

https://www.thewrap.com/star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-arrives-with-sky-high-box-office-expectations/

[Ryan Reynolds]

if Disney expects 160m , then 180m is locked

[RockyMountain]

7 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

if Disney expects 160m , then 180m is locked

If I remember right I think Disney's expectations were about 170m for TFA.

[Inceptionzq]

13 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

Since TROS is on par with TLJ advance tickets, does that mean it's going to have a slightly smaller opening than it because of growth of presales?

 

That and a higher percentage of the presales will be for the weekdays since TRoS is closer to Christmas than TLJ was

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

That and a higher percentage of the presales will be for the weekdays since TRoS is closer to Christmas than TLJ was

I feel like I forget about this and need to be reminded anew every time we get a comparison of overall TLj and TROS presales.    
 

Which is unfortunate, since it’s actually a big deal 😓

[Inceptionzq]

7 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I feel like I forget about this and need to be reminded anew every time we get a comparison of overall TLj and TROS presales.    
 

Which is unfortunate, since it’s actually a big deal 😓

I’m not entirely convinced on 200M+ because of this. But if the weekend presales are actually pacing for 200M+, then that would mean weekday presales are relatively weak.

[keysersoze123]

Solo tracking does not compare as that was weeks before release. Solo started strong and then petered out completely. We have final numbers from many sources to confirm. This is release week and yet its on track and its PS has not petered out for sure. So its time people stop saying we are in the same situation.

[JB33]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Solo tracking does not compare as that was weeks before release. Solo started strong and then petered out completely. We have final numbers from many sources to confirm. This is release week and yet its on track and its PS has not petered out for sure. So its time people stop saying we are in the same situation.

What's your gut feeling on a preview number? No pressure, I know it would be a pure guess and I wouldn't take it to the bank.

[TwoMisfits]

2nd local (Regal) is up...and it also did NOT expand TROS for FSS - the movie will be stuck with 18 showings (4 3d, 14 2d)...this has now become a pattern at the smaller theaters (since this is 3 in my metro doing it already)...and again, they have chosen to hold holdovers that you'd think would have been dropped if the theaters were either getting a better deal or expecting an enormous, mind-blowing number...they obviously did math and figured sucky holdovers at possibly a 40% pull would make as much or more revenue for them as 65% takes on TROS - can't say I blame them b/c everything tends to sell out Dec 21-25...here's the set...

 

NEW 

TROS 4 - 18 showings- 4 3d, 14 2d) - they get the biggies

Cats 1 - 6 showings

Bombshell 1 - 5 showings

 

Returning

Black Christmas 1 - 5 showings - yes, their studio also seemed to know how to cut a booking deal, just like Richard Jewell, which speaking of...

Richard Jewell 1 - 5 showings - just like the other local - great contract:)

Jumanji 1 - 5 showings - lost a screen but at least keeps a 2nd biggest one

Knives Out 1 - 5 showings

Frozen 1 - 5 showings

Queen and Slim 1 - 5 showings - are you kidding?  this is the biggest "we either don't expect a huge SW number or we're gonna make subscribers wait to see it b/c we gotta hold it 4 weeks anyway...so watch this movie where we pay out so much less" call:)...

 

So, 3 theaters small-to-midsize theaters...no TROS expansion FSS - I fully expect them to give Thursday night shows in full to TROS, so we could be looking at Thursday having as many showings as a FSS in many places...

Edited December 18, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[LPLC]

So TROS is releasing in 3 days, after analyses what are you expecting for domestic and global OW ? And final box office ?

[John Marston]

34 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Solo tracking does not compare as that was weeks before release. Solo started strong and then petered out completely. We have final numbers from many sources to confirm. This is release week and yet its on track and its PS has not petered out for sure. So its time people stop saying we are in the same situation.

Then why did every major predictor still predict 170m 4 day the week of release? Obviously ROS will do better then Solo, but even week of release, predictors got it wrong 

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Then why did every major predictor still predict 170m 4 day the week of release? Obviously ROS will do better then Solo, but even week of release, predictors got it wrong 

Predictions dont matter. we have wang's numbers and we have MTC numbers and we have folks like @Porthos who tracked Solo and now SW9 and so its not hard to see where it will end up. This is definitely nothing like Solo.

 

Edit: for Solo by release week the expectations started trending lower. Variety/HR said 130-150m and that was thinking SW faithful will walk in for it despite PS not what was expected after initial spurt.

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/box-office-preview-solo-headed-lowest-opening-disney-star-wars-movies-1114228

 

https://variety.com/2018/film/news/solo-a-star-wars-story-box-office-opening-preview-1202818890/

Edited December 18, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Then why did every major predictor still predict 170m 4 day the week of release? Obviously ROS will do better then Solo, but even week of release, predictors got it wrong 

Did they?  As I check about, I see comments about "135 to 170" and zeroing on "140".

 

It's very hard to check these things via Google, and I don't particularly feel like going back into this thread.

 

*does some refinement*

 

Variety: (May 22)

Quote

For the first time in weeks, superheroes won’t wear the crown at the domestic box office.

“Solo: A Star Wars Story” is looking to lift off with $130 million to $150 million at 4,380 locations over Memorial Day weekend. While that is down significantly from tracking earlier in May that suggested the film would open between $165 million and $175 million, some are still projecting the “Star Wars” prequel could make as much as $180 million over the four-day holiday weekend.

 

THR: (May 23)

Quote

If all goes well, a young Han Solo and his band of outcasts will take out Captain Jack Sparrow and set a new Memorial Day weekend record at the box office.

 

Disney and Lucasfilm's spinoff Solo: A Star Wars Story is tracking to open to $130 million to $150 million over the long holiday weekend, with $130 million being on the low end of expectations. To date, the Memorial Day weekend record-holder for the top domestic launch is 2007's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End with $139.8 million, not adjusted for inflation.

 

Deadline: (May 22)

Quote

After the hoopla over a change-up in directors, Disney/Lucasfilm’s spinoff Solo: A Star Wars Story is finally opening, and its box office potential should not be dismissed. Right now, domestic projections over the four-day Memorial Day holiday are ranging from $135 million-$170 million, with overseas projected at $150M-$170M. On the low end, that’s a $285M worldwide start, though that figure could range as high as $340M. These are industry projections, not from Disney, which is seeing a $130M-$150M start.

 

BOP (May 23)

Quote

It’s been a long and winding road for the second anthology film in the Star Wars franchise, but its release is finally here. Fittingly, this marks the series’ return to its summer roots for the first time since 2005’s Revenge of the Sith — and it so happens to land on the exact 41st anniversary of the original Star Wars, which released in 32 theaters on Wednesday, May 25, 1977.

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Opening Weekend Range: $100 – 125 million (3-day) / $125 – 150 million (4-day)

This week’s tracking for Solo again sees a drop from previous indications. A number of factors are in play as social media buzz stalled last week after having been significantly ahead (by a factor of nearly 2) of Rogue One and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2’s Twitter footprints earlier this month.

Of note, Disney enters the weekend with official projections of $130 – 150 million for the four-day opening.

 

Doesn't look like "everyone" was still predicting $170 the week of release to me.

 

In fact, it looks like no one was, outside of the typical CYA lol-Deadline upper range.

Edited December 18, 2019 by Porthos
edited in BOP for good measure

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

Not to mention Solo was the first Summer Star Wars movie in 13 years. Behaviors change with the season 

[keysersoze123]

What did Disney predict for Frozen 2. That did not go cray but the predictions/tracking were not too high as well.

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

What did Disney predict for Frozen 2. That did not go cray but the predictions/tracking were not too high as well.

They are expecting $ 100M on the week of release for Frozen 2

 

So if they’re expecting $ 160M for SW, it’s probably doing at least $ 190M. But i think $ 200M is happening considering the presales doing so good this past days

[boomboom234]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

They are expecting $ 100M on the week of release for Frozen 2

 

So if they’re expecting $ 160M for SW, it’s probably doing at least $ 190M. But i think $ 200M is happening considering the presales doing so good this past days

Are they doing that well? finally matching TLJ two days out is not that good especially considering two years of presale growth and the closeness of Christmas kinda undercuts that too 

[RockyMountain]

4 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

Are they doing that well? finally matching TLJ two days out is not that good especially considering two years of presale growth and the closeness of Christmas kinda undercuts that too 

That's probably why they are saying 200m and not 220 like TLJ had.