The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[REC]

I think a lot of people are going to be shocked... nay perplexed at the peculiar Justice League-style numbers Ep9 gets.

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, REC said:

I think a lot of people are going to be shocked... nay perplexed at the peculiar Justice League-style numbers Ep9 gets.

Just read my post in the TROS thread, huh?  I'm seeing JL Pt 2 lining up, just at higher starting figures and a little better holiday leg...

Edited December 17, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Marek the Jedi]

5 minutes ago, REC said:

I think a lot of people are going to be shocked... nay perplexed at the peculiar Justice League-style numbers Ep9 gets.

 

ohh, sure  what's your prediction?

[Inceptionzq]

44 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Deadline notes 235 OS for VIII at same rates and markets, predicting 250. Bit optimistic with DOM OW falling some 5-15%, I think?

That doesn’t include China for TLJ though, right? So that would be 230M OS-China for TRoS

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

That doesn’t include China for TLJ though, right? So that would be 230M OS-China for TRoS

Maybe they made a miscalculation, I wouldn’t know off the top of my head. But sure sounds like they tried to include China:

Quote

Previous title The Last Jedi opened to $235M abroad in like-for-like markets and at today’s exchange rates.

 

[Inceptionzq]

4 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Maybe they made a miscalculation, I wouldn’t know off the top of my head. But sure sounds like they tried to include China:

 

Ahh yeah you’re right then. They also say 312M for TFA, which would definitely include China.

 

Well if they’re right with 250M OS, that’d be kinda interesting to see an increase there and a decrease domestically.

Edited December 17, 2019 by Inceptionzq

[Starphanluke]

Having seen the film, I will say (gut reaction/predicition):

 

It's a messy bitch of a film, but it's also fast, fun, and enormously entertaining. The characters are very likable, if hollow. I think general audiences will actually take to it really well. I could see really strong holiday week numbers.

[Firepower]

So I suppose it's doing less than 200 mln OW domestic?

[Brainbug]

Literally the first thing i see after having not visited the forums in 5 days is that Scott Mendelson tweet.

 

My day may have started of rough but it certainly ends with a bit of laughter.

 

Also im really fucking excited for the movie and its run!

[Andreas]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Literally the first thing i see after having not visited the forums in 5 days is that Scott Mendelson tweet.

 

My day may have started of rough but it certainly ends with a bit of laughter.

 

Also im really fucking excited for the movie and its run!

I believe TROS being a total opposite to TLJ will help its reception and legs in Europe. In Romania for sure and I have a similar feeling about Germany too.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Maybe they made a miscalculation, I wouldn’t know off the top of my head. But sure sounds like they tried to include China:

 

I don't think Deadline's OS estimates should be taken seriously. Their F2 OS prediction was such a joke.

[Jamiem]

Doing this slightly early as I have a flight to catch.

 

Albany Event Cinemas (New Zealand) -Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opening day (Thur 19/12/2019)12 hours before release

 

0:01am  178/216

0:01am 175/216

0:01am 167/216

0:01am 28/162

0:01am 20/160

0:01am 23/144

0:01am VMAX 115/185

0:01am VMAX 94/133

0:01am GC 40/40

0:01am GC 30/30

9:00am 36/216

9:50am VMAX 28/133

10:20am 19/216

10:30am GC 25/30 

11:00am 18/216

11:20am GC 30/40 

11:20am VMAX 17/185

12:20pm 18/216

1:00pm VMAX 16/133

1:40pm 40/216

1:50pm GC 24/30

2:20pm 3D 22/216

2:30pm VMAX 14/185

2:40pm GC 3D 28/40 

3:40pm 37/216

4:15pm VMAX 13/133

5:00pm 78/216

5:10pm GC 30/30

5:50pm VMAX 57/185

7:00pm 165/216

7:30pm VMAX 92/133

8:20pm 150/216

8:30pm GC 29/30

9:00pm VMAX 53/185

9.20pm 40/216

9.20pm GC 40/40 

10.20pm 13/216

 

Total  2002/5606 (35.71%) 

 

Over 2000 tickets sold for opening day is incredible. A few more showings added for midnights means it is showing on every screen at midnight now, also means it has more tickets available opening day than TLK, although that film didn’t have midnight showings. Comps say it will go higher but I’m still feeling a little over or under $4m as this is likely more presale heavy than most other films. 

 

Comps

 

TLK 

 

At the same point 1831/5554(32.96%) = $5.59m 

 

Frozen II

 

At the same point 670/2572 (26.05%) = $4.75m

 

now time for me to catch a flight, go home and have a nap and then go to see Star Wars at midnight! So if i don’t reply forgive me. 

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

I don't think Deadline's OS estimates should be taken seriously. Their F2 OS prediction was such a joke.

CM is the one I remember vividly.  

[JB33]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Just read my post in the TROS thread, huh?  I'm seeing JL Pt 2 lining up, just at higher starting figures and a little better holiday leg...

You're killin' me @TwoMisfits!

 

I suppose it's better than giving me false hope (over $200M) though.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

2 hours ago, REC said:

I think a lot of people are going to be shocked... nay perplexed at the peculiar Justice League-style numbers Ep9 gets.

 

We already witnessed something even worse than JL last year, tbh. But I agree this time will be even worse since it's an "official" movie. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

You're killin' me @TwoMisfits!

 

I suppose it's better than giving me false hope (over $200M) though.

While it's not my prediction and if reactions aren't great I could see it diving well below, I don't see why you'd rule that out just yet. It definitely could happen based on presales.

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

While it's not my prediction and if reactions aren't great I could see it diving well below, I don't see why you'd rule that out just yet. It definitely could happen based on presales.

That's the thing: Thursday presales are actually looking pretty good. It's the multi I wonder about.

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, JB33 said:

You're killin' me @TwoMisfits!

 

I suppose it's better than giving me false hope (over $200M) though.

I'm out of reactions (on a dang Tuesday), but I try:)...

 

This might not have been the right movie for Disney to be dickish on 65% and mandatory 4 weeks...although maybe the general audience will suddenly decide to drop back in to a trilogy finale:)...didn't happen for JL, but it could happen:)...Xmas to NYE gets very boring stuck inside with family driving you nuts!:)

[xiazhi]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

The fall of Star Wars from THE giant to just another giant among giants is extremely sad to me as a die-hard fanboy. I'm not liking some of the stuff from the reactions I'm seeing, but hopefully this installment is able to save enough face that I can still get star wars content for years to come. 

nothing lasts forever. F&F, JW and HP all went down after their peak.

Edited December 17, 2019 by xiazhi

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2204

4011

54.95%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2023

3926

51.53%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
11528	490	24462	47.13%	9	197

 

Showings added: 1

Seats added: 114

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 27.98M

Final Maleficent count comp: 32.69M

Final IT 2 count comp: 31.17M

Final Hobbs count comp: 32.58M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 33.77M

Final Lion King count comp: 34.95M

 

Average: 32.19M

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2314

4011

57.69%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2081

3926

53.01%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
12106	578	24620	49.17%	9	199

 

Showings added: 2

Seats added: 158

 

Final Frozen 2 count comp: 29.38M

Final Maleficent count comp: 34.33M

Final IT 2 count comp: 32.74M

Final Hobbs count comp: 34.22M

Adjusted final OUATiH count comp: 35.60M

Final Lion King count comp: 36.70M

 

Average: 33.83M