The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

37 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Re: capacity for GvK, I did a deeper dive in the covid theater thread but basically Los Angeles and the SF Bay Area should move from 25% capacity (100 max) to 50% capacity (200 max) with GvK OD as the very first day of the new restrictions.    
 

NYC is a black box but since Cuomo hasn’t announced anything yet it might still be at the current levels. 

Yes, but will a theater be able to take advantage of that on the very first day of relaxed restrictions?  In this situation, it might matter more for Fri-Sun than Wed-Thr when it comes to OW.

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Yes, but will a theater be able to take advantage of that on the very first day of relaxed restrictions?  In this situation, it might matter more for Fri-Sun than Wed-Thr when it comes to OW.

I had been wondering about just that, and it’s a logistics question to which I don’t know the answer.   
 

I will say though, this is one area where predictability helps California. Theaters in relevant counties should have a pretty good idea on March 23 that their county will go into orange on the 31st, and should be able to prepare appropriately. It also seems smoother to go from 25 to 50 than cold start 0 to 25.    
 

But I wouldn’t be surprised if some locations indeed didn’t ramp up on the very first day allowed and waited instead until say, that Friday. Could help the internal multiplier I guess at the (slight) expense of OD.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

With NY/CA opening up share of MTC1+MTC2 should be around 40%. So would need 4 million sales in these 2 chains.

Since Canada and MTC 3 aren't open, probably 50-60%.

[TwoMisfits]

On 3/15/2021 at 10:26 PM, TwoMisfits said:

So, this got me to check my Cinemarks (even though I was only gonna do it every few days til release week).

 

Cinemark 1 - now up to 14 regular seats sold (all regular) - 2 private viewings sold out (may or may not be GVK)

Cinemark 2 - now up to 8 premium seats sold, still 0 regular - 2 private viewings sold out (may or may not be GVK)

(And can I point on the 10 Commandments, on its 1st day, sold 5 seats today - yeah, old movies)

 

Cinemark 1, with 6 showings, has about 540 seat capacity. (I'm totally winging this, but it should be a good wag)

Cinemark 2, with 9 showings, has about 800 seat capacity. (Same)

 

So, in my metro, Cinemark is selling about 2% of its seats so far for GVK...so I'd be leery about the high MTC number b/c my area is not el sucko when it comes to movie releases...

 

Quick Update

Cinemark 1 - 3 seats sold today (17 Cumm/540), 1 more private viewing sold (3 out of 9 showings Cumm)

Cinemark 2 - 0 seats sold today (8 premium, 0 regular Cumm/800), 1 more private viewing sold and 3 more added (now 3 sold out of 12 showings Cumm- 4 screens of 12 total screens now PVP - gonna be interested if this grows or the main showings grow)

 

 

Edited March 17, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Since Canada and MTC 3 aren't open, probably 50-60%.

That makes 10m OD highly improbable barring huge increase in show count and capacity increase. I am skeptical theaters would do anything where lobbies are super crowded and there is a super spreader event with a new variant. 

[keysersoze123]

On private watch parties, Cinemark is charging $149 in Bay Area California for a GVK show with maximum 20 patrons. AMC in NYC is charging $299 for a private screening with maximum 20 patrons. Of course Private watch party could be for any movie but GVK should be majority of shows on 31st. But how much can that add. 2000 shows with $250 average price would be $500K worth of gross. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

That makes 10m OD highly improbable barring huge increase in show count and capacity increase. I am skeptical theaters would do anything where lobbies are super crowded and there is a super spreader event with a new variant. 

Idk. Just going off of the WW84 comp, seems pretty likely that this will finish well ahead of that in the MTCs. The MTC ratio may be worse but I think 50-60% is pushing it, and a "worse" ratio would still likely mean additional gross, just a lower percentage increase than one might expect from the WW84 comp.

 

Say WW84 OD was ~7.5 million, then 10 million seems very achievable. The watch parties gave Wonder Woman a significant boost, I think they likely will do so here as well. 

Edited March 17, 2021 by Menor

[TwoMisfits]

16 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

On private watch parties, Cinemark is charging $149 in Bay Area California for a GVK show with maximum 20 patrons. AMC in NYC is charging $299 for a private screening with maximum 20 patrons. Of course Private watch party could be for any movie but GVK should be majority of shows on 31st. But how much can that add. 2000 shows with $250 average price would be $500K worth of gross. 

 

I think you're underselling possible PVP showing counts...just my 2 Cinemark 12s now have 21 PVP showings with 6 booked.  I would not doubt that AMC and Cinemark book as many screens for PVP as for regular sales (now that said, they are the small screens, but when you can't sell that many tickets on big screens anyway)...

 

If you average 6 PVP showings/theater across the 300 Cinemarks and 600 AMCs (with 6 being about 1/2 of what my 12s, which are not huge theaters, already have), that's 5400 PVP shows for the Wednesday.  So, I'd probably double your PVP showing expectations/day.

 

EDIT TO ADD: So, Cinemark thinks there is a 24 in my viewing area (it's in another state, but okay).  That sites has 27 PvP showings for the Saturday, with 19 of them already booked.  While PVP will hold down regular box office, it does inflate what is possible for Covid box office.  All those tiny screens become Covid "financial" sell outs, when they'd have no prayer normally.  PS - And for presales, there are only 19 GvK specific showings for that Saturday so far, so Cinemarks have gone very heavy on this PvP strategy in Covid...

Edited March 17, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[charlie Jatinder]

18 minutes ago, Menor said:

WW84 OD was ~7.5 million

WW84 OD was $8M off the top of my head.

[charlie Jatinder]

WW84 had I think round about 10,000 private shows for OD. Need to check tho.

[Eric Prime]

On 3/15/2021 at 10:48 PM, Eric #TeamKong said:

The Courier Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting (Thursday & Friday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	13	16	557	2.87%

The Courier Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting (Thursday & Friday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	21	102	923	11.05%

 

Total Showings Added: 8

Total Seats Added: 366

Total Sellouts Added: 2

Total Seats Sold: 86

[Eric Prime]

On 3/15/2021 at 10:56 PM, Eric #TeamKong said:

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	8	21	733	1371	53.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 56

Total Sellouts Added Today: 4

Total Seats Sold Today: 198

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	10	22	833	1427	58.37%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 1

Total Seats Added Today: 56

Total Sellouts Added Today: 2

Total Seats Sold Today: 100

[Cooper Legion]

Courier T-2 over Boogie and Chaos 

 

Not quite sure what to make of that, hadn’t been expecting much.

Edited March 17, 2021 by WandaLegion

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I think you're underselling possible PVP showing counts...just my 2 Cinemark 12s now have 21 PVP showings with 6 booked.  I would not doubt that AMC and Cinemark book as many screens for PVP as for regular sales (now that said, they are the small screens, but when you can't sell that many tickets on big screens anyway)...

 

If you average 6 PVP showings/theater across the 300 Cinemarks and 600 AMCs (with 6 being about 1/2 of what my 12s, which are not huge theaters, already have), that's 5400 PVP shows for the Wednesday.  So, I'd probably double your PVP showing expectations/day.

 

EDIT TO ADD: So, Cinemark thinks there is a 24 in my viewing area (it's in another state, but okay).  That sites has 27 PvP showings for the Saturday, with 19 of them already booked.  While PVP will hold down regular box office, it does inflate what is possible for Covid box office.  All those tiny screens become Covid "financial" sell outs, when they'd have no prayer normally.  PS - And for presales, there are only 19 GvK specific showings for that Saturday so far, so Cinemarks have gone very heavy on this PvP strategy in Covid...

Since WW2 had 10K shows this could mimic that. So far searching MTC1 and MTC2 I could only find 675 private shows in MTC1 and 936 shows in MTC2. But I am not sure if sold out shows are counted. So let us wait for data from studio on private shows. We should get that close to release. 

 

So 2-3 million through private shows and what ever GVK can do through regular shows. I guess MTC3 was closed even for WW2. But that was christmas and here its opening on a regular work day. Plus the fact that one can watch it on HBO Max on the same day. Of course WW2 had the same limitations. 

 

I wish WB had at least provided couple of weeks for theaters before premiering on HBO Max. 

[Porthos]

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	92	3310	3772	462	12.25%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	164
Total Seats Sold Today	134

 

====

 

T-15 Comp (absolutely lol [at the moment at least] - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	82.5		39	580		0/87	11056/11616	4.82%		5.20m

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	5
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	0
Adjusted Seats Approximation	80

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25] and 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25] 

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism in this post.

[Porthos]

With only some slight reservation, I'm starting an official comp against King of the Monster's Thursday Previews ($6.3m).  I've seen a fair amount of debate on just what Wednesday might pull in, ranging from 5m to 10m and I'm a little curious to see how it will pace against KotM's ticket sales.

 

It is absolutely gaining on it, though partially offset by folks realizing that theaters are now selling tickets.

 

(as a side note, Cinemarks in Sacto are opening up this Friday)

 

I'll be curious to see where it ends on a raw ticket count against KotM's Thr Preview.  Complicated slightly by the fact that I take a Thr sample around 4pm to 6pm, so maybe I'll track Wed numbers through mid-day locally to try to mimic that.  Though it might not matter if too many shows are already capped.

 

Either way, I'm mostly doing this for my own intellectual curiosity.  If it actually proves useful?  Well, that's a bonus.  👍

 

==

 

As for ticket sales locally?  Pretty much slow but steady movement across the region.  The slowest theaters are still not seeing much foot traffic, but elsewhere it's three more tickets sold here, two more tickets sold there across multiple showings.  Be curious to see how the pattern shakes out after the initial (relative) surge of attention.

 

Also curious to see whether or not the cabin fever factor materializes.  Unlike much of the country, Sacramento County only had a two or three week window where movie theaters were open before slamming shut again.  So outside of that brief window when TENET was around, this is the first time in a year where folks who like to go out to movies, can.  Not without driving for 30+ minutes at least (a couple of neighboring counties have had a tiny bit more success regarding movie theaters gaining clearance).

 

Can't say definitively where this is headed locally, but the very first initial signs are... "Not bad."

Edited March 17, 2021 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

With only some slight reservation, I'm starting an official comp against King of the Monster's Thursday Previews ($6.3m).  I've seen a fair amount of debate on just what Wednesday might pull in, ranging from 5m to 10m and I'm a little curious to see how it will pace against KotM's ticket sales.

 

It is absolutely gaining on it, though partially offset by folks realizing that theaters are now selling tickets.

 

(as a side note, Cinemarks in Sacto are opening up this Friday)

 

I'll be curious to see where it ends on a raw ticket count against KotM's Thr Preview.  Complicated slightly by the fact that I take a Thr sample around 4pm to 6pm, so maybe I'll track Wed numbers through mid-day locally to try to mimic that.  Though it might not matter if too many shows are already capped.

 

Either way, I'm mostly doing this for my own intellectual curiosity.  If it actually proves useful?  Well, that's a bonus.  👍

 

==

 

As for ticket sales locally?  Pretty much slow but steady movement across the region.  The slowest theaters are still not seeing much foot traffic, but elsewhere it's three more tickets sold here, two more tickets sold there across multiple showings.  Be curious to see how the pattern shakes out after the initial (relative) surge of attention.

 

Also curious to see whether or not the cabin fever factor materializes.  Unlike much of the country, Sacramento County only had a two or three week window where movie theaters were open before slamming shut again.  So outside of that brief window when TENET was around, this is the first time in a year where folks who like to go out to movies, can.  Not without driving for 30+ minutes at least (a couple of neighboring counties have had a tiny bit more success regarding movie theaters gaining clearance).

 

Can't say definitively where this is headed locally, but the very first initial signs are... "Not bad."

This should provide a nice boost, right? I know Century Arden, at least, is one of the big theaters in your area. 

Edited March 17, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Menor said:

This should provide a nice boost, right? I know Century Arden, at least, is one of the big theaters in your area. 

Yes, seeing how two of the better in pre-pandemic times theaters do (Century Arden and Studio Movie Grill Rocklin) is something of a benchmark for me.  I'm somewhat encouraged by how Century Blue Oaks is doing:

 

	Seats sold	Total Seats	CAP	Perct
Blue Oaks
11:55a (2D)	22	93	23	95.65%
2:55 (2D)	10	93	23	43.48%
6:00 (2D)	23	93	23	100.00%
9:00 (2D)	10	93	23	43.48%
11:10a (2D)	11	59	15	73.33%
12:40 (2D)	0	111	28	0.00%
1:25 (2D)	3	109	27	11.11%
2:10 (2D)	0	59	15	0.00%
3:40 (2D)	4	111	28	14.29%
4:25 (2D)	0	109	27	0.00%
5:10 (2D)	3	59	15	20.00%
6:40 (2D)	26	111	28	92.86%
7:25 (2D)	22	109	27	81.48%
8:10 (2D)	2	59	15	13.33%

Here's Arden at the moment:

	Seats sold	Total Seats	CAP	Perct
Arden
1:00 (2D)	13	260	65	20.00%
4:00 (2D)	8	260	65	12.31%
7:00 (2D)	23	260	65	35.38%
11:10a (2D)	1	162	41	2.44%
11:45a (2D)	0	110	28	0.00%
12:20 (2D)	5	162	41	12.20%
2:10 (2D)	1	162	41	2.44%
2:45 (2D)	0	110	28	0.00%
3:20 (2D)	0	162	41	0.00%
5:10 (2D)	0	162	41	0.00%
5:45 (2D)	0	110	28	0.00%
6:20 (2D)	5	162	41	12.20%
8:10 (2D)	5	162	41	12.20%
8:45 (2D)	0	110	28	0.00%

 

If GvK is gonna relatively break out, we need to see strong sales at a place like Century Arden as a placeholder for places which were closed up tight but just reopened or as a benchmark for places that were doing well pre-pandemic but have seen people stay away because of COVID concerns.

 

Even though SMG Rocklin was already open, it's showtimes for GvK literally went up yesterday, so I don't have a feel for it yet.

 

On the other hand, Regal Delta Shores is still closed up tight and still no news on the indie True IMAX theater, so it's not all peaches and cream.  

 

So, as I said, early days and I don't have a strong feel on how it's all gonna turn out (one of the reasons I haven't commented on your club yet ), but the very initial signs are positive, IMO.  Or at least "not bad".  Which all things considered, I might just take.

 

 

Edited March 17, 2021 by Porthos

[Borobudur]

The at least good review will propel the first breakout in pandemic era.

[Porthos]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

With only some slight reservation, I'm starting an official comp against King of the Monster's Thursday Previews ($6.3m).  I've seen a fair amount of debate on just what Wednesday might pull in, ranging from 5m to 10m and I'm a little curious to see how it will pace against KotM's ticket sales.

 

It is absolutely gaining on it, though partially offset by folks realizing that theaters are now selling tickets.

 

(as a side note, Cinemarks in Sacto are opening up this Friday)

As another side note/addendum, about a third of the theaters I track are Regal theaters and/or smaller chains which as of this post still aren't fully open, so I'm not too concerned about over-sampling the theaters which are open in town.  One of the theaters I tracked has now gone reserve seating (and I presume the two Regals in Davis will as well, if they ever reopen), but, eh.  It's all guess work at this stage anyway so ain't too worried about that.  Or rather it's pretty far down the list of things I care about. 

 

The only real concern I might have is being a mixed market folks can drive a little longer and go to a theater which is open and that won't be possible in locals where either Regal is the only game in town or, worse, their local theater has closed for good.  But it's all guesswork at this stage so I can't worry too much about it, lest I be paralyzed by analysis.   Just noting that I am aware of the problem of comping against a time where I had Regal (and other) theaters, but there ain't much I can do about it.

 

 

Edited March 17, 2021 by Porthos