The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

52 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

We have very little context domestically for schoolday D2 sales being 35% of D1 near the end of PS run (really a bit better since PWPs). But internationally I would consider that very healthy.    
 

Also wouldn’t BW surprised if an unusually high number of people try to walk up to sold out showings on OD and some of them spillover into D2. 

D2 PS are solid enough, D3 are probably the most impressive for me. @keysersoze123 do you have D4? I suspect those will be pretty strong as well.

[keysersoze123]

44 minutes ago, Menor said:

D2 PS are solid enough, D3 are probably the most impressive for me. @keysersoze123 do you have D4? I suspect those will be pretty strong as well.

I wanted to get it but its taking time. MTC2 run takes almost 3 hours. Both the MTC have over 5K shows on saturday. 

[Cookson]

This seems to be selling very well. My local theater has added a ton of showings. Yeah they’re 50% Max capacity but if each one sells well we could be in for a surprise 5 day opening especially if the good selling spills into the weekend. I definitely think 60m 5-day could happen

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (T-1)

MTC1 -  98179/514989 1285424.00 3030 shows(322 theatres) +16089 // 195 shows have not sold any tickets and 815(+205) sellouts

MTC2 -  94470/556644 1034663.48 3995 shows(293 theatres) +16943 //402 shows have not sold any tickets and 429(+101) sellouts

Thanks for your service brah.

 

Being a bit needy, but can we expect one update close to midnight or tomorrow early morning, whichever you deem fit.

Edited March 31, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

I am more interested in what sort of PSm we get. Sales are already 19%, many places have 25% limited capacity, so it can't have normal growth. Hopefully Texas and other which have 100% allowed get good PSm.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Thanks for your service brah.

 

Being a bit needy, but can we expect one update close to midnight or tomorrow early morning, whichever you deem fit.

You are welcome. I will let it run overnight to capture the data. it takes a while to capture the data. Hopefully I can get the final number for the night. 

 

Anyway @Menor

 

GVK D4 BO

MTC1 - 49566/917094 606793.00 5030 shows(423 theatres) +14694(This is about 2 days of PS for D4) // 1822 shows no sales and 240 sellouts

MTC2 - 43406/738583 503509.00 4956 shows (293 theatres) +10398 //1777 shows no sales and 122 sellouts

 

PWP - MTC1 has 2108 sellouts and MTC2 has 2907 sellouts. But again this data is hard to extrapolate as I am not sure how many are for GVK. 

 

I had last run this on sunday night and so its progress roughly around 55% of OD sales at MTC1 and 40% of OD sales at MTC2. There are still 3 days of PS left but I dont expect it to catch to OD PS but walk ups should be better as shows should do well full day plus its playing in more theatres and show count is way higher compared to OD. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Idk, those numbers look very strong to me. I mean T-1 days, TRoS had 14M sales for OD in MTC1 while Sunday were 3M. That's barely 23% while actual gross was 45%.

 

Internationally Sat being half of OD at this point will be Huge 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

35 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

You are welcome. I will let it run overnight to capture the data. it takes a while to capture the data. Hopefully I can get the final number for the night. 

 

Anyway @Menor

 

GVK D4 BO

MTC1 - 49566/917094 606793.00 5030 shows(423 theatres) +14694(This is about 2 days of PS for D4) // 1822 shows no sales and 240 sellouts

MTC2 - 43406/738583 503509.00 4956 shows (293 theatres) +10398 //1777 shows no sales and 122 sellouts

 

PWP - MTC1 has 2108 sellouts and MTC2 has 2907 sellouts. But again this data is hard to extrapolate as I am not sure how many are for GVK. 

 

I had last run this on sunday night and so its progress roughly around 55% of OD sales at MTC1 and 40% of OD sales at MTC2. There are still 3 days of PS left but I dont expect it to catch to OD PS but walk ups should be better as shows should do well full day plus its playing in more theatres and show count is way higher compared to OD. 

So D3 yesterday was at 900k, which then means that D3 PS are probably around the same as D4 right now. But D4 has one more day to sell and will benefit from more walkups. I know some in the thread were thinking Sat to be fairly flat from Fri but from these numbers it seems like we will see a decent-sized Saturday bump. Friday itself will see a big bump from Thursday. As long as the Thursday drop isn't super harsh then both Friday and Saturday should be bigger than OD. That will definitely help with the internal multi. 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Menor said:

I know some in the thread were thinking Sat to be fairly flat from Fri but from these numbers it seems like we will see a decent-sized Saturday bump.

I for one was expecting it to be flat or even a drop considering Friday is holiday of Good Friday. In fact Thursday shall be boosted by Holiday eve. BUT seeing the pre-sales for Sat are so good, it don't make sense to expect a drop.

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Idk, those numbers look very strong to me. I mean T-1 days, TRoS had 14M sales for OD in MTC1 while Sunday were 3M. That's barely 23% while actual gross was 45%.

 

Internationally Sat being half of OD at this point will be Huge 

 

This is saturday. SW9 saturday sales were very strong. It was at 70% of previews on 12/16 (4 days before release). SW9 sunday was around 43% of previews. OD was 86% of previews at that point. That ratio was consistent all the way to 12/19 when previews opened. 

[Porthos]

On the one hand, HBO Max is something of a wildcard here.  If folks can't watch it at a sold out theater, they might just whip out the credit card and sub to HBO Max for a month and call it a day.

 

On the other hand, if WoM gets out that this really should be enjoyed on the big screen AND there isn't much reason to fear spoilers, then maybe the threat of HBO Max isn't as big of a deal.

 

I mean, it's a giant lizard and a giant ape throwing down.  What's there to spoil?

 

(yes, yes, I know — I'm talking about the casual audience expectations here)

((this also isn't an invitation to make mods sad by implying what could be spoiled, either))

 

What I'm getting at while there will be things to spoil, it shouldn't be nearly at the level of a CBM or SW flick.  Thus the pressure to see it nownownow might not be as prevalent.

 

Be interesting to see how it all plays out, legs wise.  Both internally on the weekend and further on as the OW recedes into the distance.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is saturday. SW9 saturday sales were very strong. It was at 70% of previews on 12/16 (4 days before release). SW9 sunday was around 43% of previews. OD was 86% of previews at that point. That ratio was consistent all the way to 12/19 when previews opened. 

I don't think TROS is the best comp here. That was a mega seller, which tends to have more spread out sales as it's more casual audiences pre-buying than just rabid fans. Smaller films tend to have much less PS beyond OD. 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

PS so far under my model just for sake of it, since Keyser update was 7 hours ago and 3 more hours to go, estimating 10 hours of final sale.

 

Wed - $5.25M

Thu - $1.85M

Fri - $2M

Sat - $2M

Rest - $1M probably

 

Total - $12.1M

 

Estimating 6.5k PWPs in MTC 2. MTC 1 since not complete data, but expecting 10k atleast. Overall USA must be 20K PWPs atleast, but weirdly WB isnt reporting more than 10K PWPs. Even for WW84, they reported "over 10K" PWPs 3 days before release and "over 10k PWPs" after weekend as well. 20K PWPs means roughly $4M gross, so about $16-17M final PS.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It was at 70% of previews on 12/16 (4 days before release).

For sake of it, was using Previews + OD as OD. Even then, Sat being 70% of previews in PS, ended up being 120% of final gross.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

For sake of it, was using Previews + OD as OD. Even then, Sat being 70% of previews in PS, ended up being 120% of final gross.

That is not apples to apples. It opened at 5PM and got tons of screens during previews. Basically holdovers were hammered to allow SW9 to play in as many screens as possible. So you need to look at only 24 hours of data. 

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

I don't think TROS is the best comp here. That was a mega seller, which tends to have more spread out sales as it's more casual audiences pre-buying than just rabid fans. Smaller films tend to have much less PS beyond OD. 

I agree. I dont think you can compare movies with pre-covid PS anyway. We never had PWP and there was no hybrid release either. I was just responding to Charlie's comp. 

 

I wish this movie opened in summer with no hybrid release. That would ensure it BO as close to potential as possible. 

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Menor said:

I don't think TROS is the best comp here. That was a mega seller, which tends to have more spread out sales as it's more casual audiences pre-buying than just rabid fans. Smaller films tend to have much less PS beyond OD. 

Yes ofc but it was just to show that later day having lower than OD pre-sales is nothing to worry about. If it wasnt for TROS no way for GvK.

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

PS so far under my model just for sake of it, since Keyser update was 7 hours ago and 3 more hours to go, estimating 10 hours of final sale.

 

Wed - $5.25M

Thu - $1.85M

Fri - $2M

Sat - $2M

Rest - $1M probably

 

Total - $12.1M

 

Estimating 6.5k PWPs in MTC 2. MTC 1 since not complete data, but expecting 10k atleast. Overall USA must be 20K PWPs atleast, but weirdly WB isnt reporting more than 10K PWPs. Even for WW84, they reported "over 10K" PWPs 3 days before release and "over 10k PWPs" after weekend as well. 20K PWPs means roughly $4M gross, so about $16-17M final PS.

I am tracking all open MTC1 theatres as well. PWP data should be complete looking at data for entire week. Many theatres in MTC1 are now open only Friday to Sunday. So the PWP numbers are lower. Saturday showcount in MTC1 is ahead of MTC2 and seat count is 25% higher. 

[titanic2187]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I agree. I dont think you can compare movies with pre-covid PS anyway. We never had PWP and there was no hybrid release either. I was just responding to Charlie's comp. 

 

I wish this movie opened in summer with no hybrid release. That would ensure it BO as close to potential as possible. 

Unfortunately WB is too delusional, and wanted to save their HBO max as the worst streaming services in the town.

 

And I don't get the bashing towards Disney of their hybrid model,; WB offer a better deal to cinema with lower Box office split but keep in mind, WB put those theater in compete with something free! Of course WB should offer cinema some more generous deal as opposed to Disney when generally people still have to pay 30 for PVOD.

 

[Eric Quinn]

On 3/29/2021 at 10:16 PM, Eric #TeamKong said:

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 Days and Counting (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	45	70	2908	4049	71.82%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 9

Total Seats Added Today: 287

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 293

Godzilla vs. Kong Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count (Wednesday)

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	63	83	3877	4426	87.60%

 

Total Showings Added Today: 13

Total Seats Added Today: 377

Total Sellouts Added Today: 13

Total Seats Sold Today: 969

 

Think I said this before, but this is a movie that is dinged hard by the capacity limits. Maybe this means the film will be leggy, but it could also mean people might just have to deal with Max to get their Zilly/Kong action. We'll have to wait and see I guess