The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

In the middle of doing the Sacto report....

 

Hold on....

 

Getting a message from Cinemark HQ regarding more Private Watch Parties and Wed Opening Day for GvK:

 

 

DEVELOPING..... as a certain trade would say. 

Edited March 30, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

On 3/28/2021 at 10:50 PM, Porthos said:

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	38	140	2616	5906	3290	55.71%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	7
Total Showings Added Today	14
Total Seats Added Today	410
Total Seats Sold Today	342

 

====

 

T-3 Comp (lol [well, probably] - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	230.07		131	1430		0/101	12310/13740	10.41%		14.49m

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	62
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	7
Adjusted Seats Approximation	1090

NOTE: PWP adj = 16 seats for Cinemark [$149/$9.25] and 14 seats for Cinema West [$130/$9.25] 

See further explanation for why I am approximating PWPs and why they should be viewed with at least some skepticism in this post.

 

==========

 

It occurred to me that two of the theaters (well, one and two-thirds as I had PLF data for one of the theaters) I tracked for KotM are now reserved seating theaters, where they weren't for KotM. That means while I was able to track sellouts for those showings, I wasn't able to get the seat level data.

 

While it's already a mess without Regal (plus a couple of others), it might be worth to do a comp box without the seat level data for those two theaters. 

 

If I wanted to that, I'd get:

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	38	140	1575	4631	3056	65.99%

 

T-3 Comp (lol [well, probably] - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM adj (Thr Prev)	213.70		131	1430		0/101	12310/13740	10.41%		13.46m

 

So about 1m difference in comps (and 234 seats sold).

 

Prob will include that going forward, coz why not?  Not like I gots much else to comp with.

 

 

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	49	205	3501	7536	4035	53.55%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	11
Total Showings Added Today	65
Total Seats Added Today	1630
Total Seats Sold Today	745

 

====

 

T-2 Comps (100% guaranteed lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	246.49		207	1637		0/120	13471/15108	10.84%		15.53m
KotM adj (Thr Prev)	229.08		207	1637		0/120	13471/15108	10.84%		14.43m

KotM adj accounts for the two theaters that have moved to fully reserved seating since KotM debuted.

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	70
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	7
Adjusted Seats Approximation	1218

Edited March 30, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

If I take 80% of the PWP seats as being for GvK and combine that with my current adjusted seat total (3750), I get:

 

4742 seats sold (974+3750).

 

I divide that by the KotM's T-2 seats sold, and I get...

 

2.8858x KotM at T-2, or $18.18m.

 

However, there is no Regal.  So for shits and giggles, why don't I multiply that total by the fraction of theaters I am not missing locally due to Regal + Others being closed.  Let's call it 8 theaters missing out 19 (much more complicated than that due to two of them being non-reserved seating and small auditoriums to boot, but eh), or 11/19 (57.89%).

 

0.5789 * $18.18 = 10.53m 

 

Huh.  Could be, could be.  Might keep this formula in my back pocket if I feel courageous enough to try to make a projection off of Wed numbers.  Also might go with 11/17 as a fraction (11.76m), due to the fact that two of the theaters that are presently closed were non-reserved seating. So while I could see sellouts, I couldn't get seat data.  Maybe a upper and lower bound???

 

Gonna think on it a bit.

Edited March 30, 2021 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	49	205	3501	7536	4035	53.55%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	11
Total Showings Added Today	65
Total Seats Added Today	1630
Total Seats Sold Today	745

 

====

 

T-2 Comps (100% guaranteed lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	246.49		207	1637		0/120	13471/15108	10.84%		15.53m
KotM adj (Thr Prev)	229.08		207	1637		0/120	13471/15108	10.84%		14.43m

KotM adj accounts for the two theaters that have moved to fully reserved seating since KotM debuted.

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	70
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	7
Adjusted Seats Approximation	1218

Tbh, I did not expect that KOTM comp to still be increasing at this point. I thought for sure it would be Crumbling! by now. Late jumps have been quite strong in Sacramento. 

Edited March 30, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

I don't know what math @Porthos did there, but I see he is getting that "$10.5M" number. So I approve it. Though I don't believe that Regal being closed is that big an issue with 2 other MTCs being open and running. The overperformance in Sacramento is probably due to that holiday of Cesar day.

Spoiler

State	Observance
Arizona	State offices closed.[2]
California	State offices and schools closed on March 31[3]In 2019, state offices (including DMV) will be closed on Monday, April 1.[4]
Colorado	Declared as an optional holiday on March 31[5]
Michigan	State offices and schools closed[2]
Texas	Declared as an optional holiday on March 31[5]
Utah	State offices and school is optional[2]
Wisconsin	State offices and schools closed[2]
Washington	The thirty-first day of March, recognized as Cesar Chavez day
Minnesota	The thirty-first day of March, recognized as Cesar Chavez day[6]

 

Anyhow, after yesterday posts of @keysersoze123 I am not really sure about what MTC data really is giving. So I will wait and see what actual numbers come and if my model works. For now will just use WW84 as an indicator and hope it works.

[Tinalera]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

If I take 80% of the PWP seats as being for GvK and combine that with my current adjusted seat total (3750), I get:

 

4742 seats sold (974+3750).

 

I divide that by the KotM's T-2 seats sold, and I get...

 

2.8858x KotM at T-2, or $18.18m.

 

However, there is no Regal.  So for shits and giggles, why don't I multiply that total by the fraction of theaters I am not missing locally due to Regal + Others being closed.  Let's call it 8 theaters missing out 19 (much more complicated than that due to two of them being non-reserved seating and small auditoriums to boot, but eh), or 11/19 (57.89%).

 

0.5789 * $18.18 = 10.53m 

 

Huh.  Could be, could be.  Might keep this formula in my back pocket if I feel courageous enough to try to make a projection off of Wed numbers.  Also might go with 11/17 as a fraction (11.76m), due to the fact that two of the theaters that are presently closed were non-reserved seating. So while I could see sellouts, I couldn't get seat data.  Maybe a upper and lower bound???

 

Gonna think on it a bit.

So all these calculations you're on the verge of proving mathematically how time travel be achieved right? 

 

 

Its better than what Ive got....all I get to calculate is when possibly we might end our lockdowns so people can even go to the theatres! 

Edited March 30, 2021 by Tinalera

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Menor said:

Tbh, I did not expect that KOTM comp to still be increasing at this point. I thought for sure it would be Crumbling! by now. Late jumps have been quite strong in Sacramento. 

Tomato Law Never Fails!

 

(except when it does)

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't know what math @Porthos did there, but I see he is getting that "$10.5M" number. So I approve it. Though I don't believe that Regal being closed is that big an issue with 2 other MTCs being open and running. The overperformance in Sacramento is probably due to that holiday of Cesar day.

  Reveal hidden contents

State	Observance
Arizona	State offices closed.[2]
California	State offices and schools closed on March 31[3]In 2019, state offices (including DMV) will be closed on Monday, April 1.[4]
Colorado	Declared as an optional holiday on March 31[5]
Michigan	State offices and schools closed[2]
Texas	Declared as an optional holiday on March 31[5]
Utah	State offices and school is optional[2]
Wisconsin	State offices and schools closed[2]
Washington	The thirty-first day of March, recognized as Cesar Chavez day
Minnesota	The thirty-first day of March, recognized as Cesar Chavez day[6]

 

Anyhow, after yesterday posts of @keysersoze123 I am not really sure about what MTC data really is giving. So I will wait and see what actual numbers come and if my model works. For now will just use WW84 as an indicator and hope it works.

It was something of an ad-hoc (ie backass stupid) way of approximating what the theater count closure might be like in the DOM market.

 

Which is actually a good point.  Anyone know how many theaters GvK is in approximately?  Took a quick glance at BOM but didn't see it (not that their "improved" site is any help in the first place).  Info might not be out there, but if I knew how many theaters were actually showing GvK on Wed, I might have a better sense of a range for the flick, rather than playing with numbers for no good reason.

[Cmasterclay]

So what's a reasonable expectation for Godzilla five day? Is it above Tenet?

[Borobudur]

9 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

So what's a reasonable expectation for Godzilla five day? Is it above Tenet?

Should be above Tenet's entire sum in just one week

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't know what math @Porthos did there, but I see he is getting that "$10.5M" number. So I approve it. Though I don't believe that Regal being closed is that big an issue with 2 other MTCs being open and running. The overperformance in Sacramento is probably due to that holiday of Cesar day.

  Reveal hidden contents

State	Observance
Arizona	State offices closed.[2]
California	State offices and schools closed on March 31[3]In 2019, state offices (including DMV) will be closed on Monday, April 1.[4]
Colorado	Declared as an optional holiday on March 31[5]
Michigan	State offices and schools closed[2]
Texas	Declared as an optional holiday on March 31[5]
Utah	State offices and school is optional[2]
Wisconsin	State offices and schools closed[2]
Washington	The thirty-first day of March, recognized as Cesar Chavez day
Minnesota	The thirty-first day of March, recognized as Cesar Chavez day[6]

 

Anyhow, after yesterday posts of @keysersoze123 I am not really sure about what MTC data really is giving. So I will wait and see what actual numbers come and if my model works. For now will just use WW84 as an indicator and hope it works.

One aspect while extrapolating BO from a single city is even in normal times you could have huge variance due to various reasons. now the entire boxoffice is different. Biggest market for any big movie New York is operating at a tiny capacity. That would mean smaller markets have much bigger share and if you add that to over performance, extrapolating is pointless. 

 

I am tracking almost all shows of 2 biggest chains. Challenge extrapolating from that is absence of Regal and how big rest of the market is. I still think its better to extrapolate from more data than less(Duh). Bottom line is comparing with pre covid releases has no useful purpose at this point, Sorry @Porthos

[Legion Again]

25 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

So what's a reasonable expectation for Godzilla five day? Is it above Tenet?

No, it will be very hard at this point for the 5-day to beat 57.9M.  
 

I guess not quite impossible

[charlie Jatinder]

Not that it gonna matter much except in areas with limited capacity and AMC & Cinemark sold outs, Regal is opening on 2nd April right?

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

No, it will be very hard at this point for the 5-day to beat 57.9M.  
 

I guess not quite impossible

I'm very biased of course, but I don't think it's that hard. Just need the MTC 1/2 share to be a bit lower than Keyser estimates on OD (so it can get more like 11 million than 8-9 million), then spillover + higher show count on weekend + more theaters playing the film + hopefully good WOM should carry it to a nice IM. 

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Not that it gonna matter much except in areas with limited capacity and AMC & Cinemark sold outs, Regal is opening on 2nd April right?

Yeah but only a sample of Regal, not many theaters. 

Edited March 30, 2021 by Menor

[filmlover]

I just secured one of the last private watch parties available this weekend for Godzilla vs. Kong (with about 15 other people) and even the regular shows seem to be doing very well. It's definitely going to post by far the best opening of the pandemic era so far.

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Not that it gonna matter much except in areas with limited capacity and AMC & Cinemark sold outs, Regal is opening on 2nd April right?

Yes. It will make a big difference for sure starting friday. I expect friday increase to be much bigger as Regal should be around 15-20% of BO right. 

[Tinalera]

Post Pandemic (I mean we have to get there right?) is going to be such a weird time for people researching box office numbers during pandemic. Between audiences, allowed percentages, and whos all shut down, its going to be rather difficult to figure how some movies may have done in a "non pandemic" era. I have to wonder how many decisions are made on movies in an IP are based on "bad numbers" during this era. Plus with "same day streaming" options that various companies take post pandemic will muddy the waters even more. 

 

Its just all so surreal.

[Borobudur]

Deadline projecting 20-30m 5 days opening

 

https://deadline.com/2021/03/godzilla-vs-kong-opening-weekend-box-office-record-1234724112/

 

the Legendary monster mash is expected to deliver the biggest domestic debut for a major studio movie during this span (since late March 2020) with an estimated $20M-$30M over Wednesday through Sunday.

 

In regards to when Los Angeles moves to 50% capacity for indoor cinemas, we’ll hopefully know more today; the expectation is the benchmark won’t be notched until after Easter weekend. The only exception to that is if California hits 4 million vaccinations in disadvantaged communities. If that happens, the state will elevate to the Orange tier, which could be before this weekend.

On the upside for Warner Bros, it will have full control of Imax and PLFs for the month of April between Godzilla vs. Kong and Mortal Kombat. Of the former’s theater count, 285 sites are Imax auditoriums, 650 are PLF screens, over 700 are 3D, with another 150 drive-ins.

[Menor the Destroyer]

18 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Yes. It will make a big difference for sure starting friday. I expect friday increase to be much bigger as Regal should be around 15-20% of BO right. 

Not many of their theaters though. It is most of their big ones per the Deadline article sent by @Borobudur but not sure how much difference it will make. 

 

7 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Deadline projecting 20-30m 5 days opening

 

https://deadline.com/2021/03/godzilla-vs-kong-opening-weekend-box-office-record-1234724112/

 

the Legendary monster mash is expected to deliver the biggest domestic debut for a major studio movie during this span (since late March 2020) with an estimated $20M-$30M over Wednesday through Sunday.

 

In regards to when Los Angeles moves to 50% capacity for indoor cinemas, we’ll hopefully know more today; the expectation is the benchmark won’t be notched until after Easter weekend. The only exception to that is if California hits 4 million vaccinations in disadvantaged communities. If that happens, the state will elevate to the Orange tier, which could be before this weekend.

On the upside for Warner Bros, it will have full control of Imax and PLFs for the month of April between Godzilla vs. Kong and Mortal Kombat. Of the former’s theater count, 285 sites are Imax auditoriums, 650 are PLF screens, over 700 are 3D, with another 150 drive-ins.

Some interesting tidbits from that article: For @Porthos, it says GvK is playing in 3000 theaters. It also says that GvK has beaten WW84's PWP number already with over 10,000 booked. Now being "over 10,000" was expected, but as I think WW84 had more than 10,000 overall (given that WW84 was reported to have 10,000 on Dec 21) being ahead of WW84 is good. 

 

Not sure whether to take Deadline tracking seriously or just Deadline being Deadline. As I recall the trades were saying something like 5 to 7 million for WW84. 

Edited March 30, 2021 by Menor

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, Menor said:

Not many of their theaters though. It is most of their big ones per the Deadline article sent by @Borobudur but not sure how much difference it will make. 

 

Some interesting tidbits from that article: For @Porthos, it says GvK is playing in 3000 theaters. It also says that GvK has beaten WW84's PWP number already with over 10,000 booked. Now being "over 10,000" was expected, but as I think WW84 had more than 10,000 overall (given that WW84 was reported to have 10,000 on Dec 21) being ahead of WW84 is good. 

 

Not sure whether to take Deadline tracking seriously or just Deadline being Deadline. As I recall the trades were saying something like 5 to 7 million for WW84. 

Might be a bit higher than I was expecting, aksually.  What with very little Canada, no Regal (even if Deadline is counting Regals starting on the second, last time I checked it was only a couple dozen theaters), and a few states being out.

 

A quick check says that KotM was at 4,108 on OW.  So, about 73%.  Then we have various caps, plus mid-week opening.  But then PWPs and expanded showings from lack of competition.

 

Hmmm....

Edited March 30, 2021 by Porthos