The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Just to drive this point home.  If I exclude the showings that I shouldn't be comping against KotM, as of right now, more or less:

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	139	233	477	6282	5805	92.41%

 

That's... That's not many seats left.

 

And as I said a ton of them are at a couple of theaters which don't usually see as much foot traffic.

 

I mean, it could happen.  But, like I said, I'd take the under and then be pleasantly surprised if it manages to do that after all.

Fair enough. I just looked at seats left and didn't realize that situation. That said, since I am more looking at the pace compared to yesterday than the exact comparison to KOTM, for me the seats from the new theaters are still useful. 

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Menor said:

Fair enough. I just looked at seats left and didn't realize that situation. That said, since I am more looking at the pace compared to yesterday than the exact comparison to KOTM, for me the seats from the new theaters are still useful. 

Well if its any consolation, Century Arden in the last 20 minutes just put up three more shows at the last moment.

 

...

 

You called them and begged them to add more showings, didn't you?

 

(the 4pm showing almost insta-sold out, as it is right up against the cap, and there are already 10 tickets sold for the two new 10pm+ showings)

Edited March 31, 2021 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

37 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@keysersoze123 can we get the number of MTC 1 open today. I assume on Friday all of them open since count will bump to 3k, but today it's 2.4k only nationwide 

I have the count for reserved theatres. its 322. About 105 theatres will add shows on friday(they are open only during friday-sunday). Rest are small theatres which does not have reserved tickets. most are from carmike acquisition. Total shows through them is under 900. I have tracked 399 sellouts and under 500 available shows. Should not make huge difference to overall BO. 

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: OPENING DAY MID DAY REPORT [12:00 - 12:55]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	124	231	1634	8024	6390	79.64%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Last Night	34
Total Showings Added Since Last Night	17
Total Seats Added Since Last Night	381
Total Seats Sold Since Last Night	941

 

====

 

T-0 Comps (100% guaranteed lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev) [12:00 - 12:55]	267.78		398	2386		0/125	13097/15483	15.41%		16.87m
KotM adj (Thr Prev) [12:00 - 12:55]	235.25		398	2386		0/125	13495/15483	15.41%		14.82m

KotM adj accounts for the two theaters that have moved to fully reserved seating since KotM debuted.

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	77
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	8
Adjusted Seats Approximation	1344

All PWP in the area are SOLD OUT

Wild-Assed Guesstimate Comp based on reasoning/formula in this post:  10.22m

 

======

 

Wild-assed guesstimate came down simply because there aren't enough seats to keep up with demand.  Corporate sites are sluggish as all get out (almost certainly because they haven't been paying for bandwidth allocation), and the only real amount of seats left (uncapped) are the least trafficked theaters in town.

 

No idea whatsoever where this is landing.  Just that Sacramento is damn near capped today.

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: OPENING DAY FINAL REPORT [4:00 - 4:25]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	149	236	1036	8121	7085	87.24%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since Noon	25
Total Showings Added Since Noon	5
Total Seats Added Since Noon	97
Total Seats Sold Since Noon	695

 

====

 

T-0 Comps (100% guaranteed lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev) [12:00 - 12:55]	246.18		492	2878		0/129	12885/15763	18.26%		15.51m
KotM adj (Thr Prev) [12:00 - 12:55]	209.59		492	2878		0/129	12885/15763	18.26%		13.20m

KotM adj accounts for the two theaters that have moved to fully reserved seating since KotM debuted.

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	77
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	8
Adjusted Seats Approximation	1344

All PWP in the area are SOLD OUT

Wild-Assed Guesstimate Comp based on reasoning/formula in this post:  9.01m

 

===

Well @Menor got his seats sold.   Unfortunately for the WAG comp, a lot of them were in those newly reserved seating theaters, so the WAG comp came down to 9m as everywhere else was utterly slammed:

 

Final Report for KotM adj showings:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	149	236	305	6337	6032	95.19%

 

95% of seats sold is... A lot of seats sold. 

 

Since my WAG is almost exactly on 9m, gonna see if that's right or not.  Maybe other parts of the country having higher caps will make the difference.  Frankly anything from 8.5m to 10m won't surprise me one iota.

 

But since I don't do "Deadline ranges", I'll stick with 9m +/- .3m.

 

Very likely to be very wrong as I'm making a ton of presumptions.  But, hey, that's what makes it fun.

 

 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

Gonna go with 11 million including PWPs. Sacto final day was very strong for a 25% capped area. Demand is clearly there for walkups and in areas where supply is less of an issue, I bet we see some big numbers. 

Spoiler

now watch Keyser come along in a couple of hours and show only like 150k at both MTCs. Hope I didn't jinx it as I tend to overshoot more than undershoot. But I really do think that the demand is there. 

 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Menor

[keysersoze123]

GVK OD update // MTC1 is as of 3PM and MTC2 run took 3.15 hrs and just finished !!!!

MTC1 - 167228/577496 2011537.00 3645 shows (322 theatres) // 2043 sellouts 

MTC2 - 179788/655435 1875053.34 4992 shows (293 theatres) // 974 sellouts

 

This is probably final update for MTC2 as it takes too long. I am thinking around 4.25 million across 2 MTC on tracked shows.  I would the say range for OD is 9-11m including PWP. But lower end could happen if MTC ratio is higher. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

GVK OD update // MTC1 is as of 3PM and MTC2 run took 3.15 hrs and just finished !!!!

MTC1 - 167228/577496 2011537.00 3645 shows (322 theatres) // 2043 sellouts 

MTC2 - 179788/655435 1875053.34 4992 shows (293 theatres) // 974 sellouts

 

This is probably final update for MTC2 as it takes too long. I am thinking around 4.25 million across 2 MTC on tracked shows.  I would the say range for OD is 9-11m including PWP. But lower end could happen if MTC ratio is higher. 

3 PM in which time zone? Pacific? Either way it's a very nice number for a pandemic film. I wasn't sure same-day sales would be able to get this high for the full day and we have several hours to go. 

On 12/26/2020 at 12:02 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Not possible as its very PS heavy with limited walkups possible.

 

Wonder Woman 1984 12/25

MTC1 - 109178/421216 868285.00 2269 shows

MTC2 - 104708/364867 1067404.94 2440 shows

So this was WW84 at around midnight Eastern. But you have about 30% more theater coverage now, so bump up the 1.9 million to 2.5 million. If GvK conservatively gets around 4 million between the 2 MTCs that will be 60% higher than WW84! 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I have the count for reserved theatres. its 322. About 105 theatres will add shows on friday(they are open only during friday-sunday).

 So 105 are closed, rest are open?

 

That will be 490 Approx. ~165 have non reserved seating and just 900 shows 🤔

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Rest are small theatres which does not have reserved tickets.

Thing is the rest are 165 Approx. That's not a small number.

Edited April 1, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

95% of seats sold is... A lot of seats sold

What math you did there making KoTM which had pathetic opening sell 95%. 

 

Edit - Ok that's for GvK. Pardon my just woke 6:50 AM self.

Edited April 1, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

49 minutes ago, Menor said:

So this was WW84 at around midnight Eastern. But you have about 30% more theater coverage now, so bump up the 1.9 million to 2.5 million. If GvK conservatively gets around 4 million between the 2 MTCs that will be 60% higher than WW84! 

I think somehow MTC1 gross for WW84 is wrong with just $8 ATP. I know I know Coastal areas are added now, but ATP for MTC2 only increased from $10 to $11. MTC 1 should probably be $11 atleast not $8.

[Menor the Destroyer]

12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think somehow MTC1 gross for WW84 is wrong with just $8 ATP. I know I know Coastal areas are added now, but ATP for MTC2 only increased from $10 to $11. MTC 1 should probably be $11 atleast not $8.

Idk about that, MTC1 is a lot more reliant on big metros (many of which were closed for WW84) while MTC2 is more spread out regionally. So it makes sense that MTC1 would have a big jump in ATP compared to MTC2. I think theaters have lowered their prices during the pandemic anyway. Looking at my old local Cinemark, I used to get matinee tickets for like 8-9 bucks but now night showings are selling for only 6.50. So that is probably why WW84 had only $8. 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 - 167228/577496 2011537.00 3645 shows (322 theatres) // 2043 sellouts 

MTC2 - 179788/655435 1875053.34 4992 shows (293 theatres) // 974 sellouts

So MTC 1 has just 11 shows per loc but MTC 2 is 17. There's something off about that right. It must be.

[charlie Jatinder]

I am guessing 175K for MTC1 on 3,645 shows unless they increase.

MTC 2 probably 190K on 4,992 shows.

 

The above must come around $2.1M in MTC 1 and $1.97M in MTC 2. MTC 1 other ~160 theaters say $0.6-0.7M.

 

MTC 1 and MTC 2 should account for 52% of BO IMO. $9M excluding PWPs. PWPs may be $1M. $10M OD. 

[charlie Jatinder]

I count MTC 1 occupancy around 85-88%. Considering how Friday add ton of shows, this must explode during weekend ideally with increased capacity. Now this is where HBO Max release may be affecting. I won't be surprised with $13M Saturday. Not expecting, but won't be surprised. If I had put a very optimistic number, I will go 10 8 13 13 9 = 53

 

Realistically thinking 11 each on Fri and Sat.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

30 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I count MTC 1 occupancy around 85-88%. Considering how Friday add ton of shows, this must explode during weekend ideally with increased capacity. Now this is where HBO Max release may be affecting. I won't be surprised with $13M Saturday. Not expecting, but won't be surprised. If I had put a very optimistic number, I will go 10 8 13 13 9 = 53

 

Realistically thinking 11 each on Fri and Sat.

 

I think it can do better on OD, Fri, and Sat. I think with the level of PS it has, Sat increases from Fri (mostly because Saturday has been higher than Friday at the same point). But let's first see what numbers we get for today and whether WB even gives an OD number. 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

@Shawn can you tell the total show count on Wednesday for GvK.

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

 So 105 are closed, rest are open?

 

That will be 490 Approx. ~165 have non reserved seating and just 900 shows 🤔

Thing is the rest are 165 Approx. That's not a small number.

Few theatres are closed and few are not playing GVK. It will take some effort to find out which ones dont. Trust me if there are shows listed I will be able to pull them. 

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, Menor said:

3 PM in which time zone? Pacific?

yes. I am in pacific time zone. 

 

I am trying to get another update after tweaking it. I am thinking final number close to 400K between 2 chains with MTC2 finishing higher(I am assuming above 200K). MTC1 around 190K. 

Edited April 1, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Shawn can you tell the total show count on Wednesday for GvK.

@charlie Jatinder I'm seeing a bit over 18k from 1,840 theaters. Projected out to WB's reported 2,409 count for Wed and Thurs, the actual should end up between 23k-24k for Wed.

[charlie Jatinder]

So we have data from around 8.6k plus shows from @keysersoze123, roughly 34-37% of all . When final update come, will use some metric to make sense of it.

 

@Shawn that number include or exclude Private watch parties?

Edited April 1, 2021 by charlie Jatinder