The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cdsacken]

Such a waste to have that on HBO Max

[john2000]

https://deadline.com/2021/04/godzilla-vs-kong-roars-to-best-opening-day-during-the-pandemic-with-9-6m-1234726022/

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, john2000 said:

https://deadline.com/2021/04/godzilla-vs-kong-roars-to-best-opening-day-during-the-pandemic-with-9-6m-1234726022/

Quite solid. Now we also know to expect ~46% of final total from Keyser's number. That should help for following days. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Tracking Thread remains undefeated.

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Menor said:

Quite solid. Now we also know to expect ~46% of final total from Keyser's number. That should help for following days. 

Yeah. Should work for Thursday, will need tweaking on Friday.

[Menor the Destroyer]

@keysersoze123 do you have any more recent numbers for D2?

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

https://deadline.com/2021/04/godzilla-vs-kong-roars-to-best-opening-day-during-the-pandemic-with-9-6m-1234726022/

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

Since my WAG is almost exactly on 9m, gonna see if that's right or not.  Maybe other parts of the country having higher caps will make the difference.  Frankly anything from 8.5m to 10m won't surprise me one iota.

 

But since I don't do "Deadline ranges", I'll stick with 9m +/- .3m.

 

Very likely to be very wrong as I'm making a ton of presumptions.  But, hey, that's what makes it fun.

 

 

 

 

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think Mendelson sourced from Deadline.

 

Edit: Yep. Neither Gitesh nor BOR had anything on T&J Friday. If WB had given, either of two would have tweeted.

As would BOP. Looking back in my inbox, there is no Friday figure from WB directly (but that was the first time they sent weekend actuals instead of rounded estimates).

 

Deadline's number likely came from Comscore and/or someone with access to them.

[charlie Jatinder]

Yday was 1.5x MTC 1 and 1.6x MTC 2 multiple from 10AM PST numbers. 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Shawn said:

As would BOP. Looking back in my inbox, there is no Friday figure from WB directly (but that was the first time they sent weekend actuals instead of rounded estimates).

 

Deadline's number likely came from Comscore and/or someone with access to them.

comScore numbers are embargoed. probably from some WB insider.

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Okay, I was .3m to .6m off.  But, frankly, with all of the variables in play I DO see this as a win.   

 

...

 

*checks*

 

If I hadn't rounded off the PWPs, I would have called for 9.35m. which would have put me in range. No?  Well, I tried.    More seriously, even coming within about a half million or so is pretty impressive, I think, owing to the fact I had no real idea how much to cut off Sacto's numbers to try to account for all of the places that were shut down.

 

Great to see that even with the rust, The Tracking Thread overall is in pretty good shape.  So good going, @charlie Jatinder for his analysis and @keysersoze123, @Eric #TeamKong @Menor @Inceptionzq (and anyone else who did any tracking on GvK that I've forgotten) on another fine set of tracking  in an almost impossible situation. 👍

[Shawn Robbins]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

comScore numbers are embargoed. probably from some WB insider.

Embargoed from being reported officially. They have leaked several times though. Studio insiders have access to comscore, for example. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Embargoed from being reported officially. They have leaked several times though. Studio insiders have access to comscore, for example. 

comScore wasn't having anything on TENET and WW84. I didn't checked for any other film after that. I will be getting my access back in some days probably, but unfotunately after this weekend there isnt any real big film releasing soon.

Edited April 1, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

comScore wasn't having anything on TENET and WW84. I didn't checked for any other film after that. I will be getting my access back in some days probably, but unfotunately after this weekend there isnt any real big film releasing soon.

Think MK will overperform. After that is pretty barren until MDW

 

... unless studios move some stuff up after GvK 

[Shawn Robbins]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

comScore wasn't having anything on TENET and WW84. I didn't checked for any other film after that. I will be getting my access back in some days probably, but unfotunately after this weekend there isnt any real big film releasing soon.

They did/do have numbers on Tenet and presumably all other titles, they just couldn't release them per WB's embargo. Whether they were more than estimates or not is another question though.

 

I'm not sure specifically where Deadline's Fri # for T&J came from, I just know that at least one or two comScore figures have made their way into outlet reporting during the pandemic when they weren't specifically cited as coming from comScore.

 

This is the problem with that embargo though. WB just needs to let reporting stay transparent. Thankfully, they've been progressing back to more detailed info with the past few films.

[keysersoze123]

Noice. I am assuming this includes PWP. So it finished exactly in the range I estimated 

 

Anyway @Menor

 

PS finish for GVK D2

MTC1 - 65815/510138 873936.00 2935 shows(322 theatres) +31190 

MTC2 - 61907/531959 676274.70 3807  shows(293 theatres) +28067

 

PWP - MTC1 1011 sellouts and MTC2  1343 sellouts. 

 

Still having tons of shows in sold out status. I want to check the number before reporting that. So PS finished around 55% of Day 1 at MTC1 and 50% at MTC2. 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Shawn said:

They did/do have numbers on Tenet and presumably all other titles, they just couldn't release them per WB's embargo. Whether they were more than estimates or not is another question though.

 

I'm not sure specifically where Deadline's Fri # for T&J came from, I just know that at least one or two comScore figures have made their way into outlet reporting during the pandemic when they weren't specifically cited as coming from comScore.

Yeah, they were tracking but other than WB no one was allowed to see, I couldn't get anything. That was basically what I was trying to say. I remember Deadline I also did an article on how folks are not happy with WB still not allowing comScore to publish data.

11 minutes ago, Shawn said:

This is the problem with that embargo though. WB just needs to let reporting stay transparent. Thankfully, they've been progressing back to more detailed info with the past few films.

During first weekend of TENET it was understandable as well and everyone did accepted it but they continued to do same even after that. Same internationally but at least internationally after first weekend data was allowed.

 

Also don't make sense, when you are giving weekend data every week, why hiding theater level data which may help other studios in seeing the ground position.

[Menor the Destroyer]

20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Noice. I am assuming this includes PWP. So it finished exactly in the range I estimated 

 

Anyway @Menor

 

PS finish for GVK D2

MTC1 - 65815/510138 873936.00 2935 shows(322 theatres) +31190 

MTC2 - 61907/531959 676274.70 3807  shows(293 theatres) +28067

 

PWP - MTC1 1011 sellouts and MTC2  1343 sellouts. 

 

Still having tons of shows in sold out status. I want to check the number before reporting that. So PS finished around 55% of Day 1 at MTC1 and 50% at MTC2. 

So about 54% of OD at the same point in gross. Probably that percentage increases through the day. Perhaps we can hope for 6 if PSm is better than yesterday. It was 43% of OD at the same point in your last update, so we can probably expect futher improvement. 

Edited April 1, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

Normally I would say 6.5-7.25 is possible from that PS. but will see where it is when I wake up.

[Borobudur]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Noice. I am assuming this includes PWP. So it finished exactly in the range I estimated 

 

Anyway @Menor

 

PS finish for GVK D2

MTC1 - 65815/510138 873936.00 2935 shows(322 theatres) +31190 

MTC2 - 61907/531959 676274.70 3807  shows(293 theatres) +28067

 

PWP - MTC1 1011 sellouts and MTC2  1343 sellouts. 

 

Still having tons of shows in sold out status. I want to check the number before reporting that. So PS finished around 55% of Day 1 at MTC1 and 50% at MTC2. 

Stronger late-night walk-ups possible for holiday eve? Are cinema allowed to have midnight show?