The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Unfortunately WB is too delusional, and wanted to save their HBO max as the worst streaming services in the town.

 

And I don't get the bashing towards Disney of their hybrid model,; WB offer a better deal to cinema with lower Box office split but keep in mind, WB put those theater in compete with something free! Of course WB should offer cinema some more generous deal as opposed to Disney when generally people still have to pay 30 for PVOD.

 

I agree. But Disney tend to hard ball with theatres. Normally its ok as they are the big guns but now the entire theatre situation is terrible. I just posted above that Alamo Drafthouse has declared bankruptcy and all of them are highly debt ridden with almost no revenue. 

 

I think studios are moving forward to a model with fewer theatres and shorter run as well. So plan is to leverage streaming to maximize revenue. But we will never have a Endgame or Avatar kind of run this way for sure. 

[Inceptionzq]

8 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

954

3210

29.72%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

593

2537

23.37%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3812	850	19803	19.25%	9	123

Showings added: 8

Seats added: 1761

 

$150 PWPs: 20

$200 PWPs: 4

$250 PWPs: 4(+1)

$300 PWPs: 13

 

I'll do another update later tonight with some kind of adjusted Far From Home comp.

Godzilla vs Kong Wednesday Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1117

3210

34.80%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

718

2622

27.38%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 8 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
4773	961	20114	23.73%	9	127

 

Showings added: 4

Seats added: 311

 

$150 PWPs: 22(+2)

$200 PWPs: 4

$250 PWPs: 4

$300 PWPs: 13

 

Adjusted Far From Home comp: 12.85M

 

Don't take this comp as gospel. I just did some pretty basic adjustments to try account for capacity and theater count limitations. And even with those adjustments, I think that it's clear Denver is overperforming. Having more than 50% capacity(pretty sure it's around 60%) helps a ton. And I didn't even account for PWPs with the comp. So really, this comp is very likely useless. I didn't expect it to be helpful anyways, but I wanted to do it. But besides the comp, this increase in the past 32ish hours has been impressive. 1811 tickets sold in that timeframe. And still a lot of room, so it should do pretty well with walkups tomorrow.

[Borobudur]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

That is good news but not sure it will have any impact for tomorrow. I will know if anything changes. For now no LA theatres are in Top 10 and no show has sold 100 tickets( it stops at 25% for now). But might help weekend shows but there is work on part of theatres to open up shows already listed as sellouts. 

Only orange county officials have confirmed they will apply 50% cap but Los angles local officials have not given their clearance to cinema. It is possible LA would only apply 50% cap on next week, which is kind of sad since how desperate we need a bombastic headline to put thing back  on track

[Porthos]

22 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Don't take this comp as gospel. I just did some pretty basic adjustments to try account for capacity and theater count limitations. And even with those adjustments, I think that it's clear Denver is overperforming. Having more than 50% capacity(pretty sure it's around 60%) helps a ton. And I didn't even account for PWPs with the comp. So really, this comp is very likely useless. I didn't expect it to be helpful anyways, but I wanted to do it. But besides the comp, this increase in the past 32ish hours has been impressive. 1811 tickets sold in that timeframe. And still a lot of room, so it should do pretty well with walkups tomorrow.

Is it? I know that Denver and Sacto perform fairly similarly, especially with certain types of movies.  But Philly is absolutely kicking ass as well.

 

Maybe GvK is just breaking out?  Well, "breaking out for a pandemic with many locals not being open at all" at least.

Edited March 31, 2021 by Porthos

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

d I don't get the bashing towards Disney of their hybrid model,; WB offer a better deal to cinema with lower Box office split but keep in mind, WB put those theater in compete with something free! Of course WB should offer cinema some more generous deal as opposed to Disney when generally people still have to pay 30 for PVOD.

 

I think less people would be bashing it if Disney actually released more movies during the drought instead of pushing them all back when things will be closer to normal and a hybrid release will be unnecessary. There wasn't much animosity towards the Raya hybrid release on here iirc. 

 

I think WB also doing this July onwards is pretty dumb too though. And most people don't have HBO Max so it's going to be basically like paying $15 dollars for the movie for most people. 

Edited March 31, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think less people would be bashing it if Disney actually released more movies during the drought instead of pushing them all back when things will be closer to normal and a hybrid release will be unnecessary.

Yep.

15 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think WB also doing this July onwards is pretty dumb too though. And most people don't have HBO Max so it's going to be basically like paying $15 dollars for the movie for most people

And yep.   

[Inceptionzq]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Is it? I know that Denver and Sacto perform fairly similarly, especially with certain types of movies.  But Philly is absolutely kicking ass as well.

 

Maybe GvK is just breaking out?  Well, "breaking out for a pandemic with many locals not being open at all" at least.

Based on key’s data, I’ve been on the side of it overperforming here. But a pandemic era overperformance is different than a regular one IMO. Because in a place like Denver where capacity is 50%+, the AMCs and Cinemarks can make up for the closed Regals/other closed theaters. So those that would’ve gone out to see it OD wouldn’t really be affected(not accounting for the HBO Max factor). But in a more populated area like LA or NY, with lower capacity limits, the open theaters probably won’t be able to make up for the closed theaters. Maybe I’m overestimating how much that’ll actually affect how it trends nationally, but that’s pretty much my reasoning.

[keysersoze123]

44 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Is it? I know that Denver and Sacto perform fairly similarly, especially with certain types of movies.  But Philly is absolutely kicking ass as well.

 

Maybe GvK is just breaking out?  Well, "breaking out for a pandemic with many locals not being open at all" at least.

if 3 locations are confirming a trend, it should be highly probable event. May be MTC data will also reflect. I have just started another run. But there has been burst of new shows added and huge increase in sold out shows. I am now thinking 5m+ PS between 2 MTC will happen with just 40% bump tomorrow. Let us see how things go. 

 

I may have been conservative with my projections but this is unprecedented as its 1st big movie releasing since NY/CA have opened and theatre capacity is also going up. 

Edited March 31, 2021 by keysersoze123

[Inceptionzq]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

if 3 locations are confirming a trend, it should be highly probable event.

The only problem with confirming a trend is that I’m comparing my data to FFH OD, Porthos to KoTM, and Eric is just pure numbers. The only thing we can probably say for certain is that GvK is gonna do very well and destroy the trades’ predictions.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	49	205	3501	7536	4035	53.55%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	11
Total Showings Added Today	65
Total Seats Added Today	1630
Total Seats Sold Today	745

 

====

 

T-2 Comps (100% guaranteed lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	246.49		207	1637		0/120	13471/15108	10.84%		15.53m
KotM adj (Thr Prev)	229.08		207	1637		0/120	13471/15108	10.84%		14.43m

KotM adj accounts for the two theaters that have moved to fully reserved seating since KotM debuted.

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	70
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	7
Adjusted Seats Approximation	1218

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	90	214	2194	7643	5449	71.29%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	41
Total Showings Added Today	9*
Total Seats Added Today	108
Total Seats Sold Today	1414

* Includes five non-reserved seating showings at the local drive-in

 

====

 

T-1 Comps (100% guaranteed lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	274.09		351	1988		0/125	13495/15483	12.84%		17.26m
KotM adj (Thr Prev)	250.05		351	1988		0/125	13495/15483	12.84%		15.75m

KotM adj accounts for the two theaters that have moved to fully reserved seating since KotM debuted.

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	74
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	8
Adjusted Seats Approximation	1296

 

 

EDIT::::

Wild-Assed Guesstimate Comp based on reasoning/formula in this post:  11.02m

Edited March 31, 2021 by Porthos
Missed a PWP being sold out, adjusted a couple of fields

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	90	214	2194	7643	5449	71.29%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	41
Total Showings Added Today	9*
Total Seats Added Today	108
Total Seats Sold Today	1414

* Includes five non-reserved seating showings at the local drive-in

41 sellouts added today.

 

Okay, Sacto IS over-performing.  

(probably)

[Porthos]

BTW, as we enter Wed, there are exactly seven PWPs left in the entire Greater Sacramento region. 

 

Century Arden:        11/11

Century Greenback: 11/13 [11am | 11:15am]

Century Folsom:        8/10 [12:30pm | 1pm]

Century Blue Oaks:  14/14

Century DoCo:            9/9 

Century Laguna:      12/12

Century Roseville:      9/12 [12:30 pm | 3:15 pm | 3:45 pm]

----

Cinema West [Woodland]: 2/2

Cinema West [Folsom]:     6/6

(Studio Movie Grill and the local indie TrueIMAX theater are not providing PWPs)

 

I kinda suspect every last one of those will be gone in due course. 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Porthos

[Porthos]

One last complication, because I'm always hunting for them.

 

Near as I can figure (and it's hard to do this by backtracking through all the sellouts) roughly 56% of the seats sold locally are at some sort of matinee pricing.  Whether that's because of Cesar Chavez Day locally or just lots of kaiju fans, I couldn't say. 

 

Now we're not talking much of a difference in ticket price.  But at this level of tickets, it starts to add up.

 

Now, "luckily" for me, KotM also had matinee pricing in affect for some its shows.  But not nearly the same percentage.  As I eyeball it (and try to remember various chains polices back in 2019), KotM was maaaaaybe around 26% of sales at matinee pricing when I took my last sample.  That's more than double.  Just another reason for me to ad-hoc my numbers down by more than a little bit.

 

(I reckon @Inceptionzq shouldn't have nearly the same amount of trouble in Denver given that he is comping against the all-day FFH, even if that did have midnight showings)

Edited March 31, 2021 by Porthos

[Hokkaido MUTO]

I really hope this has a 40M 5-day. I truly don't see how this could possibly gross 20M 5-day as Deadline seems to suggest. Hell Variety stated 3-day it would gross 23M  

[Borobudur]

39 minutes ago, Hokkaido MUTO said:

I really hope this has a 40M 5-day. I truly don't see how this could possibly gross 20M 5-day as Deadline seems to suggest. Hell Variety stated 3-day it would gross 23M  

Even Monday daily gross show some great hold among holdovers, and this show some Easter holiday effect already.

[keysersoze123]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong (T-1)

MTC1 -  98179/514989 1285424.00 3030 shows(322 theatres) +16089 // 195 shows have not sold any tickets and 815(+205) sellouts

MTC2 -  94470/556644 1034663.48 3995 shows(293 theatres) +16943 //402 shows have not sold any tickets and 429(+101) sellouts

 

PWP MTC1 has 985(+82) sellouts while MTC2 has 1713(+101) sellouts. 

 

Show counts shot up big time. Also data is for just 20 hours and that makes it super impressive. what is missing from $ value is 145 sellouts in non reserved theaters. That could add another 200K(this is a guesstimate). So its ~ 2.5 million between the 2 MTC without PWP.  There is also another 158 non reserved shows which I cannot track. I think it will end up higher in the 2 MTC than what I thought. I am thinking 4-4.5m at this point(300K+ seats sold between the 2 MTC). But I think this will be much bigger market share as well as I am tracking lot more shows than what I did previously. Still based on the I will bump up my OD to 9-10m. 

Godzilla vs Kong - (T-1) //End of day. 

MTC1 - 122819/546894 1556731.00 3313 shows(322 theatres) +24640 // 129 shows have not sold any tickets and 1222(+407) sellouts

MTC2 -  121014/599297 1302857.32 4417 shows(293 theatres) +26544 // 255 shows have not sold any tickets and 590(+161) sellouts

 

MTC1 PWP -  data cannot be pulled. All PWP at MTC1 have been removed for same day. 

MTC2 PWP - 1799 sellouts (+86)

 

HUGE increase from the afternoon. Showtimes have gone up huge and ticket sales are up more in 10 hours than previous 20 hours. At this rate its looking like 175K+ at both MTC !!! MTC2 is also selling more pace than MTC1 at this point. 

[Cmasterclay]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

Godzilla Vs. Kong Greater Sacramento Area Opening Day Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	90	214	2194	7643	5449	71.29%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today	41
Total Showings Added Today	9*
Total Seats Added Today	108
Total Seats Sold Today	1414

* Includes five non-reserved seating showings at the local drive-in

 

====

 

T-1 Comps (100% guaranteed lol - use at own risk)

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
KotM (Thr Prev)	274.09		351	1988		0/125	13495/15483	12.84%		17.26m
KotM adj (Thr Prev)	250.05		351	1988		0/125	13495/15483	12.84%		15.75m

KotM adj accounts for the two theaters that have moved to fully reserved seating since KotM debuted.

 

====

 

Private Watch Party Showings - Cinemark ($149)	74
Private Watch Party Showings - Cinema West ($130)	8
Adjusted Seats Approximation	1296

 

 

EDIT::::

Wild-Assed Guesstimate Comp based on reasoning/formula in this post:  11.02m

That's opening day?? That's not bad at fucking all for a Wednesday in March in the middle of the pandemic while the movie is on streaming! That would be box office saving esque.

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong - (T-1) //End of day. 

MTC1 - 122819/546894 1556731.00 3313 shows(322 theatres) +24640 // 129 shows have not sold any tickets and 1222(+407) sellouts

MTC2 -  121014/599297 1302857.32 4417 shows(293 theatres) +26544 // 255 shows have not sold any tickets and 590(+161) sellouts

 

MTC1 PWP -  data cannot be pulled. All PWP at MTC1 have been removed for same day. 

MTC2 PWP - 1799 sellouts (+86)

 

HUGE increase from the afternoon. Showtimes have gone up huge and ticket sales are up more in 10 hours than previous 20 hours. At this rate its looking like 175K+ at both MTC !!! MTC2 is also selling more pace than MTC1 at this point. 

Yeah that's a huge final few hours for sure. And a big late burst could also mean better walkups than expected. 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Menor

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Godzilla vs Kong - (T-1) //End of day. 

MTC1 - 122819/546894 1556731.00 3313 shows(322 theatres) +24640 // 129 shows have not sold any tickets and 1222(+407) sellouts

MTC2 -  121014/599297 1302857.32 4417 shows(293 theatres) +26544 // 255 shows have not sold any tickets and 590(+161) sellouts

Thanks brah.

 

Using my model, $6M OD pre-sales exc PWPs. WW84 was $4.25-4.5M, finaling at $6.25-6.5M i.e. 1.4x PSm. If we get similar PSm here, probably $8.5M.

 

MTC 2 PWPs assuming 85% for GvK are probably $275k. Overall should be $1M I suppose. 

 

$9.5-10M OD probably. That will need 300-310k Approx seats in both MTCs.

Edited March 31, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Thanks brah.

 

Using my model, $6M OD pre-sales exc PWPs. WW84 was $4.25-4.5M, finaling at $6.25-6.5M i.e. 1.4x PSm. If we get similar PSm here, probably $8.5M.

 

MTC 2 PWPs assuming 85% for GvK are probably $275k. Overall should be $1M I suppose. 

 

$9.5-10M OD probably. That will need 310k Approx seats in both MTCs.

One thing to consider is that the WW84 pre-sales that Keyser posted were from (I think) a few hours later than the GvK final presales. That alone could impact PSm. Unless you are using actual numbers from Comscore for WW84? 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Menor