The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

IW was only a year ago though. 20% seems like quite a bit. Also given Deadline's numbers these Pulse estimations seem to actually be lowballing Endgame! lol

 

It’s less than you think. For instance, Atom  has increased almost 100% in the last 18 months.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, VenomXXR said:

 

It’s less than you think. For instance, Atom  has increased almost 100% in the last 18 months.

Atom is new though. Fandango is pretty established, and generally using the raw numbers for Pulse comps has been pretty predictive in the past. You may be right though.

[dakus]

In other news, my local 10 screen has officially put its weekend slate up, and it officially is NOT playing Endgame this weekend. I guess it truly needed to have room for 4 different showtimes for After, Missing Link, and Little each on Saturday. To make it even weirder, the theatre had (and is still airing) Captain Marvel and Penguins, so its clearly not an anti-Disney or anti-Marvel thing.

 

I can't believe that in a city of 130k people I need to literally travel to another city to see a non-3D showing of the widest release of all time.

Edited April 23, 2019 by dakus

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Atom is new though. Fandango is pretty established, and generally using the raw numbers for Pulse comps has been pretty predictive in the past. You may be right though.

 

I would just say look at the final 4 days for Captain Marvel vs Black Panther on Pulse. CM actually had more total sales, but we know that previews and OW came in 25% below BP. 

 

All I’m saying is, don’t be surprised if the linear numbers are off of the final by a decent margin.

[stfletch]

8 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

One thing to keep in mind when accounting for this data is that presales are expanding. It’s not linear. I’d adjust IW numbers upward by at least 15-20% just to account for the conversion of buyers and Fandango expanding their range. 

 

Oh yes, totally agree. Obviously the results you get for Fri-Sun are totally unrealistic because the presales to walk-up percentage will be so much higher for AEG. But my assumption is that for Thursday, even for AIW, most tickets sold would have been by presales. Sure the % will be a bit higher for AEG, but I’m betting are not a great deal. I’m pretty confident in my numbers being the upper bound, but I would also hazard a guess the actual figure will only be about 10-15% lower. So preview record is definitely in play and I think it will go. If pushed for a number, I’d say $60MM seems about right.

[JB33]

9 minutes ago, dakus said:

In other news, my local 10 screen has officially put its weekend slate up, and it officially is NOT playing Endgame this weekend. I guess it truly needed to have room for 4 different showtimes for After, Missing Link, and Little each on Saturday. To make it even weirder, the theatre had (and is still airing) Captain Marvel and Penguins, so its clearly not an anti-Disney or anti-Marvel thing.

 

I can't believe that in a city of 130k people I need to literally travel to another city to see a non-3D showing of the widest release of all time.

Wh...what?? How is any cinema in the world NOT showing EG?

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, stfletch said:

Oh yes, totally agree. Obviously the results you get for Fri-Sun are totally unrealistic because the presales to walk-up percentage will be so much higher for AEG. But my assumption is that for Thursday, even for AIW, most tickets sold would have been by presales. Sure the % will be a bit higher for AEG, but I’m betting are not a great deal. I’m pretty confident in my numbers being the upper bound, but I would also hazard a guess the actual figure will only be about 10-15% lower. So preview record is definitely in play and I think it will go. If pushed for a number, I’d say $60MM seems about right.

Actually the way you adjusted first day numbers makes me think that your numbers may actually be the floor for Thurs, since as you said first day sales would be heavily skewed toward Thursday.

 

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I would just say look at the final 4 days for Captain Marvel vs Black Panther on Pulse. CM actually had more total sales, but we know that previews and OW came in 25% below BP. 

 

All I’m saying is, don’t be surprised if the linear numbers are off of the final by a decent margin.

BP had spanked it in sales for almost two weeks before that week though. Like EG will only beat IW by a bit this week, but we know total will be way higher.

[dakus]

Just now, JB33 said:

Wh...what?? How is any cinema in the world NOT showing EG?

I really wish I knew

 

https://www.landmarkcinemas.com/showtimes/kelowna-grand-10

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, dakus said:

I really wish I knew

 

https://www.landmarkcinemas.com/showtimes/kelowna-grand-10

Did they show IW, TLJ, TFA, etc?

[stfletch]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

Actually the way you adjusted first day numbers makes me think that your numbers may actually be the floor for Thurs, since as you said first day sales would be heavily skewed toward Thursday.

Good point!

Edited April 23, 2019 by stfletch

[dakus]

Just now, Menor said:

Did they show IW, TLJ, TFA, etc?

I'm honestly not sure. I'm down here for university, and I was home last year for summer when Infinity war opened, and during Christmas when TLJ opened so I never bothered to check.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, dakus said:

I'm honestly not sure. I'm down here for university, and I was home last year for summer when Infinity war opened, and during Christmas when TLJ opened so I never bothered to check.

The only reason I could think of is maybe they're understaffed or something so they can't handle gigantic releases, hence they don't show them? 

[JB33]

5 minutes ago, dakus said:

I really wish I knew

 

https://www.landmarkcinemas.com/showtimes/kelowna-grand-10

Ah, Landmark. That'll do it. I thought they went out of business. At least they did here in Alberta. 

 

The BC interior in general really isn't that great for cinema. My theatre in Kamloops when I lived there (Cineplex Aberdeen Mall) isn't that great either.

[dakus]

Just now, Menor said:

The only reason I could think of is maybe they're understaffed or something so they can't handle gigantic releases, hence they don't show them? 

They didn't have any issue with Captain Marvel or Black Panther though. Haha I really have no idea what the explanation is.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, dakus said:

They didn't have any issue with Captain Marvel or Black Panther though. Haha I really have no idea what the explanation is.

I'm just imagining whoever owns that theater deciding  "yeah I'll just pass on Endgame, lets put in some more After showings instead". Like...wtf

[dakus]

8 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Ah, Landmark. That'll do it. I thought they went out of business. At least they did here in Alberta. 

 

The BC interior in general really isn't that great for cinema. My theatre in Kamloops when I lived there (Cineplex Aberdeen Mall) isn't that great either.

Yeah, cinema's arent the greatest in the BC interior. Kelowna is better then my hometown at least. Whats weird though is the Landmark in the city of Westbank (literally across the river) has Endgame, but the one in Kelowna doesn't.

Edited April 23, 2019 by dakus

[JB33]

1 minute ago, dakus said:

Yeah, cinema's arent the greatest in the BC interior. Kelowna is better then my hometown at least. Whats weird though is the Landmark in the city of  Westbank (literally across the river) has Endgame, but the one in Kelowna doesn't.

Truly odd. I can only imagine the calls they're getting daily.

[Ledmonkey96]

Guess I'll do a count for the weekend tomorrow morning if the showings are back up on regal, not sure why Fri/Sat are down when Thurs/Sun are up.

[bcf26]

My parents asked me if Endgame is Avengers 4 or Avengers 3 Part 2. I told them to give me a minute and I'll ask the experts.

 

So, what you guys say?

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, bcf26 said:

My parents asked me if Endgame is Avengers 4 or Avengers 3 Part 2. I told them to give me a minute and I'll ask the experts.

 

So, what you guys say?

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