The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Nova said:

@Porthos how's End Game looking this weekend? 

 

(I just jumped out of a window, remember - kinda hard to check while free falling)

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

(I just jumped out of a window, remember - kinda hard to check while free falling)

 

[Jonwo]

8 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Hmm, Pets banking on Aladdin not being a big family mover, and wanting to get some Memorial Day Saturday family business...and banking that they are liked:)...if Pets isn't liked, this will kill their OW...

Pets has early release OS so I'm not surprised they're doing sneaks in the US. 

[Minnale101]

7 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Pets has early release OS so I'm not surprised they're doing sneaks in the US. 

Yeah movie release May 27th in UK. Right when school break starts. Good timing 

[Mulder]

9 hours ago, Mulder said:

New count for today ((Woke up a bit late so this'll be merging morning and mid-day)) again just as a reminder this is only Thursdays-

Aladdin-48 (+4), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-104, 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular)

John Wick-48, 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

Final count for today, only Thursdays-

Aladdin-49 (+5), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

Detective Pikachu-109 (+5), 6 screenings (3 3D, 3 Regular)

John Wick-54 (+6), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular)

 

All the releases did really good today. Aladdin and PikaPika both picked up 5 tickets today while John Wick picked up 6. 

[Porthos]

Detective Pikachu Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	64	6485	7352	11.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                     132

 

I don't have any good comps like Incredibles 2, so these will have to do.  Use with caution:

 

.4061x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 8 days before release.           

.3791x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 8 days before release.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-8 days:

JW2:            94 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |  9394/11263 seats left  | 16.59% sold]

Pika (JW):   124 tickets sold [0 sellouts/64 showings   | 5670/6305 seats left     | 10.07% sold]

FB2:          100 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings   | 11288/13377 seats left | 15.62% sold] 

Pika (FBj:   127 tickets sold [0 sellouts/64 showings   |  6026/6818 seats left    | 11.62% sold]

Pika (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

Pika (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

Edited May 2, 2019 by Porthos
making formatting look nicer with new side bar - hopefully only temporary

[Porthos]

Aladdin Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	68	8696	9403*	4.62%

* NOTE: A couple of showings were adjusted downward by one seat each resulting in a net loss of two available seats.

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      30

 

The best comp I have so far is Detective Pikachu (which is still in pre-sales).  I also have less ideal comps with JW2 and FB2.  Use the later comps with caution.

 

Unadjusted Comps

1.7787x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu after three days of pre-sales.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  [Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24]

 

Day 3 of pre-sales:

Pika:    33  tickets sold  [0 sellouts/72 showings   |  7765/8009 seats left   |  3.05% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

.4822x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after three days of pre-sales.

.4769x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald after three days of pre-sales.

PRE-SALES NOTE: JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales and FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Aladdin had 24.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Day 3 of pre-sales:

JW2              96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |   9242/10113 seats left  |  8.61% sold]

Aladdin (JW) 30 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings |   7009/7429 seats left    |  5.65% sold]

FB2              83 tickets sold [0 sellouts/94 showings | 12488/13377 seats left  |  6.65% sold] 

Aladdin (FB) 30 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings |   8073/8497 seats left    |  4.99% sold]  

*  Aladdin (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Aladdin (FB) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

Edited May 2, 2019 by Porthos
making formatting look nicer with new side bar - hopefully only temporary

[Biggestgeekever]

Looks like some nice Pokementum! And for what's it worth, I found the Fandango numbers for Rampage, no data for Thursday sadly:

Rampage

705

1,508

4,109

 

 

[dakus]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Detective Pikachu Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	64	6485	7352	11.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                     132

 

I don't have any good comps like Incredibles 2, so these will have to do.  Use with caution:

 

.4061x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 8 days before release.           [JW2 had 22 days of pre-sales while Pika Pika has 29]

.3791x as many tickets sold as Crimes of Grindelwald 8 days before release. [FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales while Pika Pika has 29]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

JW2 (T-8)                     94  tickets sold that day  [0 sellouts/111 showings   |   9394/11263 seats left  | 16.59% sold]

Pika (JW adj)* (T-8)     124  tickets sold today      [0 sellouts/64 showings     |    5670/6305 seats left   | 10.07% sold]

FB2 (T-8)                    100  tickets sold that day  [0 sellouts/94 showings     |  11288/13377 seats left | 15.62% sold] 

Pika (FB adj)** (T-8)    127  tickets sold today      [0 sellouts/64 showings     |    6026/6818 seats left   | 11.62% sold]    

*  Pika (JW adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

**Pika (FB adj) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Crimes of Grindelwald

Pika finally overtakes JW2 and FB2 in daily sales! 

 

(Let's just pretend its still not lagging far behind in total sales lmao)

[Minnale101]

After how bleak it was last week for Pika. I’ll take it lol 

 

hoping the momentum can continue 

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

On 4/29/2019 at 11:00 PM, Porthos said:

ONE TIME ONLY SAT (5/4) CENTURY ARDEN AVENGERS: ENDGAME REPORT

 

They only have a partial slate up of 8 showings at the moment.  It'll be at least 30 within a day or two.  Probably much higher than that.

 

Time        Seats Left    Total Seats        Prct Sold 
3:10p (3D)	162		260		37.69%
11:20a (2D)	70		260		73.08%
7:00p (2D)	72		260		72.31%
10:05p (2D)	184		260		29.23%
8:05a (2D)	63		161		60.87%
11:55a (2D)	45		161		72.05%
3:45p (2D)	35		161		78.26%
7:35p (2D)	33		161		79.50%
11:25 (2D)	131		161		18.63%
		795		1845		56.91%

1050 Tickets sold
795/1845 left (56.91% sold)

====

 

If you all are very very VEERRRRRRRRY lucky, I might do another Sat Cen Arden report on Wed or Thr when the final slate is up.

Consider yourselves lucky.

 

ONE TIME ONLY SAT (5/4) CENTURY ARDEN AVENGERS: ENDGAME REPORT

 

Time        Seats Left    Total Seats        Prct Sold 
3:10p (3D)	110		260		57.69%
1:50p (3D)	80		110		27.27%
9:50p (3D)	97		110		11.82%
7:30a (2D)	204		260		21.54%
11:20a (2D)	60		260		76.92%
7:00p (2D)	61		260		76.54%
10:50p (2D)	160		260		38.46%
8:05a (2D)	50		161		68.94%
8:35a (2D)	145		161		9.94%
9:00a (2D)	44		51		13.73%
9:15a (2D)	78		96		18.75%
10:00a (2D)	66		110		40.00%
10:30a (2D)	31		51		39.22%
11:55a (2D)	42		161		73.91%
12:10p (2D)	33		55		40.00%
12:25p (2D)	106		161		34.16%
1:05p (2D)	40		96		58.33%
2:20p (2D)	27		51		47.06%
3:45p (2D)	26		161		83.85%
4:15p (2D)	28		55		49.09%
4:55p (2D)	58		96		39.58%
5:40p (2D)	53		110		51.82%
6:10p (2D)	23		51		54.90%
7:10p (2D)	28		51		45.10%
7:35p (2D)	31		161		80.75%
8:05p (2D)	27		55		50.91%
8:45p (2D)	45		96		53.13%
10:00p (2D)	46		51		9.80%
10:55p (2D)	106		110		3.64%
11:15p (2D)	161		161		0.00%
11:25p (2D)	125		161		22.36%
		2191		3993		45.13%

1802 Tickets sold
2191/3993 left (45.13% sold)

752 tickets sold since Mon Night
22 showings added
1548 seats added

[Perfundle]

Detective Pikachu added its first two Dolby screens in a couple of theaters. Also, the last empty showing is no more! Though it was quite impressive that there were only 4 empty showings after the first day of presales.

 

Detective Pikachu San Gabriel Valley (10 theaters), 8 days to opening night

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats sold	Seats Left	Total Seats	Percent Sold
TOTALS	0	57	2076	7736	9812	21.16%

 

Date				4/10	4/11	4/12	4/13
Tickets Sold				534	198	110	58
Date	4/14	4/15	4/16	4/17	4/18	4/19	4/20
Tickets Sold	28	45	59	63	36	33	28
Date	4/21	4/22	4/23	4/24	4/25	4/26	4/27
Tickets Sold	35	72	57	44	92	64	79
Date	4/28	4/29	4/30	5/1
Tickets Sold	91	126	85	139

 

Aladdin San Gabriel Valley (10 theaters), first three day of presales, 22 days to opening night

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats sold	Seats Left	Total Seats	Percent Sold
TOTALS	0	55	1034	11098	12132	8.52%

 

Date		4/29	4/30	5/1
Tickets Sold		677	208	149

 

1.23x Detective Pikachu's first three days of presales [Detective Pikachu has 29 days of presales compared to Aladdin's 24]

[Cappoedameron]

Hopefully Pika Pika continues to rise with review embargos coming out and everything today.

Edited May 2, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[Nova]

Pikachu has been in the top 5 on Fandango Pulse the last couple hours. Pretty sure this is its first appearance. 

 

So just putting it here for future references. 

 

Also Long Shot made a brief appearance earlier for an hour. I’d expect it to actually stay in the top 5 later in the day. 

[Stewart]

Just to add my thoughts to the multitude of calculations in this thread for Detective Pikachu. 

 

I've always thought Jurassic World was almost the perfect comparison, relatively (Pika is not going over 200m OW). It skewed slightly male, it was heavily reliant on families while still having that in built audience. They were both 90s properties, albeit through different mediums. But, perhaps most importantly, Jurassic World was a fun summer adventure flick, which Pika looks like it's going to be. So, what was JW's IM?

 

Jurassic World: $18.5m -> $208.8m => 11.287x, which is right about where I'd expect it to be to be honest (I'm thinking 11-13x).

 

Now, obviously you have to address the fact that JW was in the dead middle of summer, and it broke the OW record, but getting past that I still think it could be a good-enough comp (again, for drops and IM stuff, not absolutes). The style of the movie and the target audience just feels like the right crossover.

 

---

 

Sidenote, @Porthos if you want the full list of previews and multipliers, I always use BOR's website:

http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html

[cdsacken]

It's hard, Jurassic World is a much bigger property for film (age audience band is WAY bigger) but the 90s nostalgia is true. Fallen Kingdom was pretty average yet road the coattails of the monster brand of JW. I like the comp for comparison but it depends on what total sales end up being in a week. So many factors impact it like reviews, wom, End Game etc. Dumbo had plenty of reasons to look at a 60-65 OW yet ended up at 46 due to a long run time, poor WOM, and mediocre critical reception. 

 

Seems to me DP at the very worst will have decent to good reception but it's hard to know until they drop the embargo. Really hoping it does well personally on reviews and in general. I would love to see it match Inside Out and do in the low to mid 90s for OW. That I think will require pretty darn good reviews and overall wom reception from the screenings that have just completed. Shazam had excellent wom/reception yet won't even reach 400 WW. Maybe 375.

Edited May 2, 2019 by cdsacken

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

It's hard, Jurassic World is a much bigger property for film (age audience band is WAY bigger) but the 90s nostalgia is true. Fallen Kingdom was pretty awful yet road the coattails of the monster brand of JW. I like the comp for comparison but it depends on what total sales end up being in a week. So many factors impact it like reviews, wom, End Game etc. Dumbo had plenty of reasons to look at a 60-65 OW yet ended up at 46 due to a long run time, poor WOM, and mediocre critical reception. 

 

Seems to me DP at the very worst will have decent to good reception but it's hard to know until they drop the embargo. Really hoping it does well personally on reviews and in general. I would love to see it match Inside Out and do in the low to mid 90s for OW. That I think will require pretty darn good reviews and overall wom reception from the screenings that have just completed. Shazam had excellent wom/reception yet won't even reach 400 WW. Maybe 375.

 

Your post is nearly good, but that trashy, untrue bit i highlighted prevents me from giving it a like.

 

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Your post is nearly good, but that trashy, untrue bit i highlighted prevents me from giving it a like.

 

lol fine lets say average I will edit  Mind you it's because I loved JW so much I was let down  

Awful IMO only in comparison to the movie I loved  In general if I'm fair it was not  

Edited May 2, 2019 by cdsacken

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, cdsacken said:

lol fine lets say average I will edit  Mind you it's because I loved JW so much I was let down  

Awful IMO only in comparison to the movie I loved  In general if I'm fair it was not  

 

I mean im probably the least objective person on the whole planet when it comes to these movies but what i can appreciate the most out of Fallen Kingdom is the excellent cinematography and sound design. The only thing i kind of have a problem with JW is that it often looks a bit bland - FK doesnt.

[cdsacken]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

I mean im probably the least objective person on the whole planet when it comes to these movies but what i can appreciate the most out of Fallen Kingdom is the excellent cinematography and sound design. The only thing i kind of have a problem with JW is that it often looks a bit bland - FK doesnt.

Interesting! For me the story line and everything wasn't as good. It's like folks who say Infinity War was so much bigger and better than End Game yet it's ending imo sucked big time in comparison. 

 

I agree from a visual and sound perspective I was quite pleased with FK