The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mulder]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Just to further confuse the issue:

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 13 Hours
Since: 2019-05-19 13:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	37.043%	6721	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2	14.286%	2592	Avengers Endgame (2019) [+182]
3	13.090%	2375	Aladdin (2019)
4	08.614%	1563	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	02.574%	467	Aladdin
6	02.491%	452	A Dogs Journey
7	02.166%	393	The Hustle (2019)
8	01.565%	284	Long Shot
9	01.538%	279	Poms
10	01.450%	263	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [+139]

 

Aladdin is currently #2 on Fandango (the 24 hour tracker reset overnight, so it's only the last 13 hours), just ahead of EG for the day, by about 60 sets of tickets.

 

Being #2 on the list is a relative thing.  Being more or less in the ballpark of EG is more quantifiable in how it's actually doing overall, while realizing it won't capture walkups today.

KoTM being #10 without it's IMAX tickets

 

5 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

I mean if Aladdin gets 100 million four weekend. I would consider it a success for sure 

 

I do wonder what the budget is. Probably not the 170 million of dumbo.

 

The cgi and sets of Aladdin looks very cheap 

I doubt it's budget is less then 150 and that's assuming it can get to Solo's four day. I doubt it at this point. To keep in mind, Solo had 14 million in previews (Though it had an admittedly weak multiplier).

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

I mean if Aladdin gets 100 million four weekend. I would consider it a success for sure 

 

I do wonder what the budget is. Probably not the 170 million of dumbo.

  

The cgi and sets of Aladdin looks very cheap 

It is not the kind of property I would go much cheaper, but maybe they did (and that would hurt them a lot imo if they did)

 

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/09359156/filing-history

 

They spent 97.8m pound by february 2018 on it. Massive post-production and reshoot in August

[reddevil19]

Can't see how Aladdin would be under 150 million budget, in all honesty. I mean, maybe it looks unpolished in promotion and so on - cheap in that "not well realised, and perhaps rushed, despite the piles of money we threw at it" way, but not in the "we had a 90 million budget" way.

[Mulder]

It's a Disney remake directed by Guy Ritchie, no way is it under 150 million.

[Minnale101]

6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

It is not the kind of property I would go much cheaper, but maybe they did (and that would hurt them a lot imo if they did)

 

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/09359156/filing-history

 

They spent 97.8m pound by february 2018 on it. Massive post-production and reshoot in August

That’s 124 million usd. So another 15 months. Probably closer to 170 million 

 

that’s pretty nuts. Especially if that Mulan budget is real.

 

idk what Disney doing with these high budget live action movies. They can definitely afford it 

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

idk what Disney doing with these high budget live action movies. They can definitely afford it 

 

I imagine part of it is building/maintaining their second biggest source of revenues after television (20B last year's),  decade of World Park audience.

 

https://disneyparks.disney.go.com/blog/2018/12/video-sneak-peek-at-beauty-and-the-beast-attraction-coming-to-tokyo-disneyland/

 

By keeping properties up to date to newer generation of kids, in that context trying to save or not 20m on the movie in charge of that is really different that if you are in the movie business and make money or not from them.

 

And it is a remake of one of the most beloved property, after Jungle Book/Beast success (in good part if not mostly due to the giant quality of the production), those high budget for them make a lot of sense.

Edited May 20, 2019 by Barnack

[reddevil19]

Just now, Barnack said:

 

I imagine part of it is building/maintaining their second biggest source of revenues after television (20B last year's),  decade of World Park audience.

 

https://disneyparks.disney.go.com/blog/2018/12/video-sneak-peek-at-beauty-and-the-beast-attraction-coming-to-tokyo-disneyland/

 

By keeping properties up to date to newer generation of kids, in that context trying to save or not 20m on the movie in charge of that is really different that if you are in the movie business and make money or not from them.

Definitely agree with that.

Even when people discuss the remakes as bad, or disappointing or what have you, they still serve to bring the originals back to the cultural fore-front and making them relevant. And, of course, Disney won't set out to actively make bad movies, so they will allocate as much money as possible to give it a good shot. Having two good movies for the same property (a la TJB) is better than one...

[TalismanRing]

10 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

That’s 124 million usd. So another 15 months. Probably closer to 170 million 

 

that’s pretty nuts. Especially if that Mulan budget is real.

 

idk what Disney doing with these high budget live action movies. They can definitely afford it 

The Mulan budget was discussed a while back .  The budget in the article was in NZ $s (NZ$300m = US$196m US) and before tax credits.

[Minnale101]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

The Mulan budget was discussed a while back .  The budget in the article was in NZ $s (NZ$300m = US$196m US) and before tax credits.

So I guess another 170 million. Still a big risk 

 

hopefully China likes the movie. Definitely my favourite Disney animated movie 

[ThomasNicole]

The Aladdin budget is reported as $ 175M

 

Presales are great, even considering they are bigger than usual because of memorial day. Something like $ 100-105M 4-day is possible based on these presales, which is a success for me.

[Mulder]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

The Aladdin budget is reported as $ 175M

 

Presales are great, even considering they are bigger than usual because of memorial day. Something like $ 100-105M 4-day is possible based on these presales, which is a success for me.

I don't think you can say presales are great when we're seeing this much of a range.

[Porthos]

On 5/22/2018 at 6:09 AM, Lordmandeep said:

How many memorial day weekends have we said a movie will open fine as families have nothing else to watch and the film still underperforms?

 

 

 

On 5/22/2018 at 6:13 AM, Nova said:

I think with any film it's hard to say well walk ups will save it. Sometimes the writing is on the wall and sometimes we get breakouts. The question with Solo is whether the writing is on the wall for it or if it "breaks out" in a way we weren't expecting. 

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

 

=====

 

Of course, the reason why 'walkup' is such a siren song is that everyone once in a while walkups DO save a movie, as seen by the discussions in this thread over JW2 just a week later:

 

On 5/30/2018 at 12:26 PM, JB33 said:

Any chance walk-ups get JURASSIC WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM to something like $180M OW?

On 5/30/2018 at 12:30 PM, Brainbug said:

 

YES.

 

On a serious note, it could happen, but its not very realistic imo. We really dont know till RTH's first Friday estimate how big the walk-ups are gonna be. Though if theres one franchise that is known for these kinds of massive walk-ups, its JP.

 

 

Turned out 180m was a bridge too far, but the 148m JW2 did clock in at was pretty damn surprising even a few days before release.

Edited May 20, 2019 by Porthos

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

 

=====

 

Of course, the reason why 'walkup' is such a siren song is that everyone once in a while walkups DO save a movie, as seen by the discussions in this thread over JW2 just a couple of weeks later:

 

 

Turned out 180m was a bridge too far, but the 148m JW2 did clock in at was pretty damn surprising even a few days before release.

Also happened with Kong: Skull Island @Walkups saving it. I just think we need to realize what movies and genres have walk-up tendencies and what don't.

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Minnale101 said:

So I guess another 170 million. Still a big risk 

 

hopefully China likes the movie. Definitely my favourite Disney animated movie 

It's the going rate for an average sized tent pole and Mulan has large action set pieces (The Great Wall and Avalanche set pieces hopefully live up to the animation) so $170m would be on the lower end of what I'd expect.

 

Tarzan - $180m.  Pika -$150m, Dumbo - $150-170m, Alice In Wonderland 2 - $170m, King Arthur - $175m etc etc etc

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

I don't think you can say presales are great when we're seeing this much of a range.

Compared to basically all the recent disney live actions, it’s doing great.

 

 

[Mulder]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

Compared to basically all the recent disney live actions, it’s doing great.

 

 

That's a very low bar considering the last two (MPR and Dumbo). That's not enough to blanketly say 'great' presales. 

[Minnale101]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

It's the going rate for an average sized tent pole and Mulan has large action set pieces (The Great Wall and Avalanche set pieces hopefully live up to the animation) so $170m would be on the lower end of what I'd expect.

 

Tarzan - $180m.  Pika -$150m, Dumbo - $150-170m, Alice In Wonderland 2 - $170m, King Arthur - $175m etc etc etc

I think out the 5 movies. Detective Pikachu was the only one who didn’t outright bomb lol

 

king Arthur, Tarzan and Alice 2 were big losses not sure yet about dumbo yet 

 

hopefully it performs better than them 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Also happened with Kong: Skull Island @Walkups saving it. I just think we need to realize what movies and genres have walk-up tendencies and what don't.

Exactly right.  The other piece to the puzzle would be, IMO, just because a film is part of a genre that does get walkups it doesn't necessarily mean that film will get walkups.  Just that it's more likely.

[Alli]

Aladdin is a family film. It will be walkup heavy. Besides, it already has good presales. I think it's gonna be fine for 100M 4 day

Edited May 20, 2019 by Alli

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

Aladdin is a family film. It will be walkup heavy. Besides, it already has good presales. I think it's gonna be fine for 100M 4 day

Just because you say it doesn't mean it's true.