The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Oh, is it internal multiplier talk time again?  Wheeee.

 

Ahem.  Anyway. 

 

POSSIBLE Factors: 

Higher pre-sale demand due to women buying tickets ahead of time. (-)

General built in fanbase for Disney Live Action Remakes. (-)

Inflated Sunday due to MDW. (+)

Probably a family type film (+)

 

*sees even amount of negative and positives*

 

Terrrrific.

 

Do I just want to punt and say 9x to 11x and wait for someone smarter than me someone like @TalismanRing to bring in some decent comps to possibly look at?

 

Probably should try to stick to 4days here (not necessarily MDW), if we can.  Though I suppose we can maybe eyeball a good enough 3day and try to adjust on the fly.  I seem to recall @Nova thinking around a 10x or so, but I'd like to see some good examples of comps myself so I personally can get a better handle on this.

Edited May 21, 2019 by Porthos

[Nova]

@Porthos I am personally thinking between 10-12x for the multiplier. Higher end due to MDW and families. Lower end if it ends up being presale heavy. I would be very shocked if it goes lower than 10 or more than 12 tbh I mean the max I would give it is 13x

 

Dumbo did 18 

BATB did 10.5 

Christopher Robbin did 16.4 

Incredibles 2 did around 10 

 

I don't see it going as high as Dumbo or CR simply because its going to be doing much higher numbers on Thursday night and thus the IM will get smaller. I have BATB and Incredibles 2 as the floor for it as I don't think it'll have a worse multiplier than two films that opened to $170M+ but BATB was 2 years ago and Incredibles 2 is an animation so it could end up with a multiplier similar to them due to that BUT as I said above, I wouldn't be shocked if it went a bit higher. 

Edited May 21, 2019 by Nova

[Eric Loves Rey]

FWIW, I feel something around 11x for the 3-Day is just about right for Aladdin, which would be right between BATB's IM (10.721x) and Pirates 5's  (11.452x for 3-Day, 14.258x for 4-Day).

[Tinalera]

Double post 

Edited May 21, 2019 by Tinalera
Double post

[Tinalera]

Evidently i missed a party here😁    

  

So im seeing tracking of 70 to 90 million for 4 day? I thought a saw 120 a while ago but thats old news? Just wondering most recent tracking.

 

 

[Cookson]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 18 Hours
Since: 2019-05-19 18:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	38.189%	14567	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2	15.701%	5989	Avengers Endgame (2019) [combined]
3	13.793%	5261	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	09.551%	3643	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	02.477%	945	A Dogs Journey
6	02.430%	927	The Hustle (2019)
7       01.893% 722     Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
8	01.814%	692	Long Shot
9	01.355%	517	Poms
10	01.282%	489	The Intruder (2019)

Godzilla looks like it’ll get in the top 5 pretty early!

[FlashMaster659]

Just now, FlashMaster659 said:

Aladdin - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Full Weekend)

 

Thursday Total

 

42(+30)/3374 (1.2%)

 

  Reveal hidden contents

IMAX 2D

 

6:00 PM - 11/532

9:15 PM - 10/532

 

RPX 2D

 

7:00 PM - 6/744

10:15 PM - 0/744

 

RealD 3D

 

9:45 PM - 0/411

 

2D

 

6:30 PM - 15/411

 

Friday Total

 

49(+28)/4680 (1.0%)

 

  Reveal hidden contents

IMAX 3D

 

3:55 PM - 2/532

 

IMAX 2D

 

9:30 AM - 2/532

12:45 PM - 0/532

7:05 PM - 8/532

10:15 PM - 5/532

 

RealD 3D

 

1:15 PM - 0/404

10:45 PM - 0/404

 

2D

 

10:05 AM - 0/404

4:25 PM - 0/404

7:35 PM - 32/404

 

Saturday Total

 

29(+11)/4680 (0.6%)

 

  Reveal hidden contents

IMAX 3D

 

3:55 PM - 0/532

 

IMAX 2D

 

9:30 AM - 6/532

12:45 PM - 0/532

7:05 PM - 12/532

10:15 PM - 0/532

 

RealD 3D

 

1:15 PM - 0/404

10:45 PM - 0/404

 

2D

 

10:05 AM - 4/404

4:25 PM - 7/404

7:35 PM - 0/404

 

Sunday Total

 

6(+4)/4680 (0.1%)

 

  Reveal hidden contents

IMAX 3D

 

3:55 PM - 0/532

 

IMAX 2D

 

9:30 AM - 2/532

12:45 PM - 0/532

7:05 PM - 0/532

10:15 PM - 0/532

 

RealD 3D

 

1:15 PM - 4/404

10:45 PM - 0/404

 

2D

 

10:05 AM - 0/404

4:25 PM - 0/404

7:35 PM - 0/404

 

Weekend Total

 

126(+73)/17414 (0.7%)

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, Cookson said:

Godzilla looks like it’ll get in the top 5 pretty early!

Wellllll, it is kinda getting helped by the crappy selling movies directly ahead of it.

 

Like, it was more or less at that same number in sales yesterday, if I recall correctly, but was around 10 or 11 or so simply because of Weekend Numbers.  But, that being said, I could see a lift into the Fandango Top Five sometime on Sunday or so.

 

It'd help if WB/Legendary would lift the review embargo this week.  But for some reason I can't really fathom, they're holding it off 'till almost the last minute (Tue of release week).  Which is effin' odd, if it is going to get as good reviews as it seems it might.

 

====

 

NOTE: I was just saying that a late review embargo isn't that big of a deal in the Aladdin thread, and that's true - but I think this film could probably use the buzz boost, say lifting it on Fri or Sat this week after a lot of the press reviews have happened.

 

Maaaaaybe WB/Legendary wants to see what more mainline critics think and then pull a Wick 3 and lift the embargo early.  Who knows though.  This is WB marketing we're talking about here. 

 

SECOND NOTE::  That snark aside, I think the buzz build up of KotM has been pretty good.  Just lift the review embargo this weekend and let it spike just in time for tickets to ramp up.

[Mulder]

19 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Wellllll, it is kinda getting helped by the crappy selling movies directly ahead of it.

 

Like, it was more or less at that same number in sales yesterday, if I recall correctly, but was around 10 or 11 or so simply because of Weekend Numbers.  But, that being said, I could see a lift into the Fandango Top Five sometime on Sunday or so.

 

It'd help if WB/Legendary would lift the review embargo this week.  But for some reason I can't really fathom, they're holding it off 'till almost the last minute (Tue of release week).  Which is effin' odd, if it is going to get as good reviews as it seems it might.

 

====

 

NOTE: I was just saying that a late review embargo isn't that big of a deal in the Aladdin thread, and that's true - but I think this film could probably use the buzz boost, say lifting it on Fri or Sat this week after a lot of the press reviews have happened.

 

Maaaaaybe WB/Legendary wants to see what more mainline critics think and then pull a Wick 3 and lift the embargo early.  Who knows though.  This is WB marketing we're talking about here. 

 

SECOND NOTE::  That snark aside, I think the buzz build up of KotM has been pretty good.  Just lift the review embargo this weekend and let it spike just in time for tickets to ramp up.

Rllly hoping they'll lift the review embargo this Thursday or Friday like what happened with Pikachu.

[Nova]

I think WB will do the same thing as Pikachu and lift the embargo on Thursday/Friday for KOTM. I can’t imagine they’d wait until Tuesday tbh 

[Legion Again]

On 5/19/2019 at 5:09 PM, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 5/19/19 (End of Sun)  

 

1	33.4%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
2	25.3%	Avengers: Endgame
3	18.1%	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	5.6%	A Dog’s Journey
5	3%    The Hustle  

I wonder if tomorrow will be a whole new world.

Whole new world confirmed.  

17 PT 5/20/19 (End of Mon)   

1	38.3%	John Wick:Chapter 3 - Parabellum
2	16.1%	Avengers: Endgame
3	11.5%	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
4	11.1%	Aladdin
5	3.5%    A Dog’s Journey   

 

Juuuuust missed #3 there. Wick is enjoying its “adult skewing movie on a weekday” status to move from 4/3rds of Endgame to over 7/3rds of Endgame.

 

[cdsacken]

Somehow I missed Monday thread. Dear God on JW3 if correct. Totally deserves it.

Edited May 21, 2019 by cdsacken

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Somehow I missed Monday thread. Dear God on JW3 if correct. Totally deserves it.

Slight Victoria Day boost.  But still good to see. 👍

Edited May 21, 2019 by Porthos

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Slight Victoria Day boost.  But still good to see. 👍

Agreed. DP/EG numbers if accurate looking niiiicccceeee. Frankly hoping for a flat Tuesday or close for EG.

[Tom Swelling]

6 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Who the hell said Illumination was good? 

 

^^^* This

Losing its touch implies that someone or some company was good at something. Read above. 

Edited May 21, 2019 by Tom Swelling

[stealthyfrog]

Just now, Tom Swelling said:

Losing its touch implies that someone or some company was good at something. Read above kid. 

Good at making money, not good at making compelling movies

[YM!]

Just now, Tom Swelling said:

Losing its touch implies that someone or some company was good at something. Read above kid. 

I meant with the GA, as in general audience. Illumination hasn’t made a good film outside of DM1 and Sing.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, stealthyfrog said:

Good at making money, not good at making compelling movies

Exactly. 

 

All I was saying is with Pets 2 looking at a steep decrease, I wonder if the Illumination brand is starting to weaken with the GA. I despise Illumination as they help perpetuate the animation for kids stereotype. But I’d be a fool to deny they don’t have power amongst the GA

[stealthyfrog]

11 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Exactly. 

 

All I was saying is with Pets 2 looking at a steep decrease, I wonder if the Illumination brand is starting to weaken with the GA. I despise Illumination as they help perpetuate the animation for kids stereotype. But I’d be a fool to deny they don’t have power amongst the GA

Grinch was a huge success last year, so I think Illumination still has it. It's just that the first Secret Life of Pets wasn't compelling enough to get that audience to return for the sequel. The same thing will happen with Sing 2 and maybe Minions 2.

Edited May 21, 2019 by stealthyfrog

[Minnale101]

I’m 21 and I’m gonna sound like one of old man yells out cloud guys lol

 

but man growing on Pixar movies like the incredibles, toy story, bugs life, finding nemo, monsters inc etc 

 

also shrek and madgascar 

 

kids these got it bad with animated movies lol