The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Nova]

I just don’t see why Aladdin would be more walk up based than say Dumbo or Christopher Robbin. 

 

We’ve used the word “walk ups” for a lot of films lately and in the end the film played out the way its presales dictated it would. I just think with reserve seating expanding the way it has, that walk up movies will be less and less likely. But if a movie does end up surprising us well then that’s fun for us in the weekend thread but I’m personally going to be cautious about expecting walk ups for films. 

[Alli]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

Just because you say it doesn't mean it's true.

Are you saying Aladdin is not a family film? Who's gonna be the target audience then?

[Porthos]

Probably doesn't matter a huge deal, but for the record, Aladdin has now slipped back to #3 on the Fandango rolling tracker as today's sales roll in for EG.  Now about 100 sets of tickets behind it.  Probably post another update at the 18 hour/19 hour mark, as that's what's been posted recently on Mondays of new releases in this thread.

[Mulder]

Just now, Alli said:

Are you saying Aladdin is not a family film? Who's gonna be the target audience then?

No, I was saying that it's not having good presales nor is it definitely going to be a walk-up film. Like Nova said above your post, why would it do more then Dumbo or Christopher Robin walk-up wise?

[filmlover]

The 7:00 in the biggest non-PLF auditorium for Thursday is 1/3 full so far and is selling much better than the 5:00 fan event showing or the 6:00 in the PLF theater. Kinda obvious that's the format it'll sell the best in so I wouldn't read too much into sluggish PLF presales (my theater so far only has the PLF auditorium up for the weekend).

Edited May 20, 2019 by filmlover

[Alli]

How much did Dumbo make in pre sales?

[Mulder]

Just now, filmlover said:

The 7:00 in in the biggest non-PLF auditorium for Thursday is 1/3 full so far and is selling much better than the 5:00 fan event showing or the 6:00 in the PLF theater. Kinda obvious that's the format it'll sell the best I wouldn't read too much into sluggish PLF presales (my theater so far only has the PLF auditorium up for the weekend).

Same with my theater. The best selling Aladdin showing is the 7:00 2D followed by the 6:00 IMAX.

[Tom Swelling]

4 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

You know, apart from Frozen 2 and TS4 likely gargantuan grosses, animation hasn’t been as strong as it was in 2016. Hoping 2020 changes that.

 

As for Pets 2 I think it’ll be fine though it’s looking to have a massive decrease as it’s the first animated film since Dragon 3, The Lorax numbers seems right. Makes you wonder if Illumination may start to slowly lose it’s touch though.

No offense, but illumination never had a touch. All of their films have been mediocre. 

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, Mulder said:

That's a very low bar considering the last two (MPR and Dumbo). That's not enough to blanketly say 'great' presales. 

Ok maybe not great but far from bad either, it’s doing good, i’m expecting $ 90-100M 4 day and based on these numbers, this seems completely possible.

[Mulder]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

Ok maybe not great but far from bad either, it’s doing good, i’m expecting $ 90-100M 4 day and based on these numbers, this seems completely possible.

It depends on what pans out more. Fandango or individual theaters. We'll see.

[Nova]

3 minutes ago, Alli said:

How much did Dumbo make in pre sales?

We never got a Deep Wang update for it but on Fandango it opened up around where its presales indicated it would. While most folks thought it would do $60M+, its presales indicated a sub $50M OW and that's what it did. 

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

I just don’t see why Aladdin would be more walk up based than say Dumbo or Christopher Robbin. 

 

We’ve used the word “walk ups” for a lot of films lately and in the end the film played out the way its presales dictated it would. I just think with reserve seating expanding the way it has, that walk up movies will be less and less likely. But if a movie does end up surprising us well then that’s fun for us in the weekend thread but I’m personally going to be cautious about expecting walk ups for films. 

Maybe because it's based on a property from the 1990s instead of the 1930s?   Kids who grew up on Aladdin in the 90s have their own kids and families now.  Not to say Dumbo and CR don't have a family base but it not quite as fresh at the young family/young kid stage.

 

 

[filmlover]

Aladdin is gonna have stronger 4-quadrant appeal than either Dumbo or Christopher Robin (both of which primarily appealed to families) due to the enduring popularity of the original movie plus Will Smith's presence, so it's perhaps a bit unfair to compare to those two. Though releasing over a 4-day holiday weekend kinda messes everything up in general.

Edited May 20, 2019 by filmlover

[ThomasNicole]

9 minutes ago, Nova said:

I just don’t see why Aladdin would be more walk up based than say Dumbo or Christopher Robbin. 

 

We’ve used the word “walk ups” for a lot of films lately and in the end the film played out the way its presales dictated it would. I just think with reserve seating expanding the way it has, that walk up movies will be less and less likely. But if a movie does end up surprising us well then that’s fun for us in the weekend thread but I’m personally going to be cautious about expecting walk ups for films. 

I don’t think Aladdin will have walkups like Dumbo, not even close actually.

 

Dumbo made $ 2.6M and debut with $ 46M (17.6x).

 

I’m expecting Aladdin to do $ 7.0 - 7.5M on previews and $ 80M 3-day (10.6–11.4x).

[TalismanRing]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

I don’t think Aladdin will have walkups like Dumbo, not even close actually.

 

Dumbo made $ 2.6M and debut with $ 46M (17.6x).

 

I’m expecting Aladdin to do $ 7.0 - 7.5M on previews and $ 80M 3-day (10.6–11.4x).

I think he's referring to walk up for the Thur Previews

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

I think he's referring to walk up for the Thur Previews

Oh right, thanks

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, Nova said:

I just don’t see why Aladdin would be more walk up based than say Dumbo or Christopher Robbin. 

 

We’ve used the word “walk ups” for a lot of films lately and in the end the film played out the way its presales dictated it would. I just think with reserve seating expanding the way it has, that walk up movies will be less and less likely. But if a movie does end up surprising us well then that’s fun for us in the weekend thread but I’m personally going to be cautious about expecting walk ups for films. 

The way I would put it is that with the rise of reserved seating, we might be able see the "walkup surge" coming the couple of days before hand.

JW2 would be the poster child of this as it exploded in the week of.  DP2 as well.  AM&tW and Venom would be examples where the 'walkup surge' first really manifested on Wed or so.  But other films it never materialized.  Pika Pika would be an example of this recently, IMO.

Maybe.  Possibly. Seeing the surge ahead of time as an indicator of walkup-possible movie might be as good as an indicator as we're gonna get. 

Edited May 20, 2019 by Porthos

[Nova]

10 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Maybe because it's based on a property from the 1990s instead of the 1930s?   Kids who grew up on Aladdin in the 90s have their own kids and families now.  Not to say Dumbo and CR don't have a family base but it not quite as fresh at the young family/young kid stage.

 

 

BATB was based on a property from the 90s and it wasn't walk up based despite it playing to families.   

Edited May 20, 2019 by Nova

[Cap]

 

 

 

9 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Maybe because it's based on a property from the 1990s instead of the 1930s?   Kids who grew up on Aladdin in the 90s have their own kids and families now.  Not to say Dumbo and CR don't have a family base but it not quite as fresh at the young family/young kid stage.

This.  And Christopher Robin is based on Pooh, which is one of Disney's #1 Merch sellers -- because of all the baby/infant/toddler merch and toys they sell.  That demos a bit too young to go to the movie.  

[Brainbug]

16 minutes ago, Tom Swelling said:

No offense, but illumination never had a touch. All of their films have been mediocre. 

 

The Illuminati definetly produced mediocre movie after mediocre movie (and sometimes, they were even shitty), but i think @YourMother the Edgelord means that they managed to produce films that somehow - i personally dont get it - just click with worldwide audiences. The DM movies are smash hits, The Grinch was HUGE last year, SLOP 1 and Sing were also great successes. So we're not speaking of quality but mainstream appeal.

Edited May 20, 2019 by Brainbug