The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[DAJK]

Kind of curious as to what you guys think the biggest WW grosser between KotM and Rocketman will be. While common sense might make one automatically say the former, but it's interesting to note Bohemian Rhapsody was just able to top 900M WW, while 14 Zilla and Skull Island both stalled before 600M

[Brainbug]

16 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Kind of curious as to what you guys think the biggest WW grosser between KotM and Rocketman will be. While common sense might make one automatically say the former, but it's interesting to note Bohemian Rhapsody was just able to top 900M WW, while 14 Zilla and Skull Island both stalled before 600M

 

Bohemian Rhapsody was a true crowdpleaser though and i believe Queen is a step above Elton John in terms of worldwide popularity. So i wont expect anything near as crazy as BoRap, but A Star is Born (400M+ WW)-level is definetily realistic imo if the film clicks with audiences.

[Eric Duncan]

19 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Kind of curious as to what you guys think the biggest WW grosser between KotM and Rocketman will be. While common sense might make one automatically say the former, but it's interesting to note Bohemian Rhapsody was just able to top 900M WW, while 14 Zilla and Skull Island both stalled before 600M

I don't know how popular Elton is worldwide, but having seen it, I don't think it's as crowdpleasing nor as effective as BR was. And while it's not "intense" with its homoeroticism, it's definitely more "in your face" compared to BR, which unfortunately might impact it. Should do on par with A Star is Born though.

[Tinalera]

I wonder how much effect that freddie is gone affects BR? Sir Elton is still alive and well. I just wonder how much that had an impact I see rocketman doing star is born numbers as well. I think kotm will gross more ( ive had a couple friends it looks like a "proper" godzilla with focus on Imax sized monsters just slugging it out...they werent fans of previous zilla taking like 2/3 film to get to monster action)

 

But yea i personally see kotm doing bigger numbers

Edited May 19, 2019 by Tinalera

[Mulder]

23 hours ago, Mulder said:

Final count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-123 (+3), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-110 (+9), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening) Final week

Dark Phoenix-62 (+2), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Slow day for Godzilla and Dark Phoenix. I'm going to dig up and see what John Wick was doing at this point in time before I comment on Aladdin but it still being behind Godzilla is...something. In total today Godzilla sold 3 tickets, Aladdin sold 9 tickets, and Phoenix sold 2.

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-125 (+2), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-111 (+1), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening) Final week

Dark Phoenix-63 (+1), 6 screenings (1 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

 

Oh Aladdin...

Edited May 20, 2019 by Mulder
Forgot screening details for Phoenix

[Old Spice]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Kind of curious as to what you guys think the biggest WW grosser between KotM and Rocketman will be. While common sense might make one automatically say the former, but it's interesting to note Bohemian Rhapsody was just able to top 900M WW, while 14 Zilla and Skull Island both stalled before 600M

I thought BR was just alright (music A+, drama C-), but it definitely struck a chord with a lot of folks, including huge numbers of people who weren't even alive when the band was at their peak. I don't think Rocketman is going to cut nearly as wide a swath, unless it gets A Star is Born level reviews and becomes something like an event. And even then, I think it would still be sub 500M WW. But right now, I'm not hearing anyone under 30 talking about the film AT ALL.

 

Rocket 125M dom, 225-250M OS, 350-375M total.

The King 150-175M dom, 400M OS, 550-575M total. (But I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 650M+ if it really is the crowd pleaser that people are saying.)

Edited May 19, 2019 by A Star is Orm
typo

[cax16]

Aladdin (May 19th update)

 

7:30 - 65/390

10:30 - 5/390

 

I will update again Thursday.

[Tinalera]

Aladdin thursday

 

Silvercity london

 

710 showing 49/ 323 

1010 showing 2/323

Regular theatre

 

Westmount

710. 28/173 1010. 16/ 173

AVX

 

 

Aladdin not getting preview attention thus far

[Mulder]

On 5/12/2019 at 4:11 PM, Mulder said:

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-83 (+17), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular) Third Day

Aladdin-72, 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening)

John Wick-129 (+14), 4 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 Regular) Final week

 

KoTM officially passed Aladdin today and John Wick's continuing to be insane  Not looking good for Aladdin though.

 

4 hours ago, Mulder said:

First count of today, only Thursdays-

Godzilla: KoTM-125 (+2), 8 screenings (3 IMAX, 3 3D, 2 Regular)

Aladdin-111 (+1), 7 screenings (2 IMAX, 2 3D, 2 Regular+Fan Screening) Final week

Dark Phoenix-63 (+1)

 

Oh Aladdin...

mmmmmmmm not good.

[Porthos]

46 minutes ago, Mulder said:

 

mmmmmmmm not good.

I've got two competing theories in my head right now then it comes to Aladdin.

 

Theory Number One:

 

I'm now wondering if I shouldn't have comped it to Solo all along.  That is, a film that had a base which came out with a relatively strong set of pre-sales, but then kinda went flat-ish the rest of the way.

 

That's why I roped in Solo as a comp locally yesterday.  I want to look directly at it day to day to see if it's following the same pattern of the GA saying: Meh.

 

Not no interest.  Just 'meh' interest.

 

Theory Number Two:

 

The sales on Fandango are pointing to sales somewhere.  It's showing no signs of breaking out either on Fandango OR various local theaters, true.  But it might not be the disaster some think.

 

It'd be kinda ironic that after all the Doom and Gloom on this board, if Aladdin actually managed to surprise somewhat.  A sort of mini-Pika Pika or mini-Mary Poppins in reverse, as it were if Aladdin manages to exceed some of the rock bottom expectations here.

 

I'm just not sure which theory holds more water at the moment.  Why I'm kinda fascinated by the next couple of days.  Especially the Fandango comps from @CoolEric258.

Edited May 19, 2019 by Porthos

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I've got two competing theories in my head right now then it comes to Aladdin.

 

Theory Number One:

 

I'm now wondering if I shouldn't have comped it to Solo all along.  That is, a film that had a base which came out with a relatively strong set of pre-sales, but then kinda went flat-ish the rest of the way.

 

That's why I roped in Solo as a comp locally yesterday.  I want to look directly at it day to day to see if it's following the same pattern of the GA saying: Meh.

 

Not no interest.  Just 'meh' interest.

 

Theory Number Two:

 

The sales on Fandango are pointing to sales somewhere.  It's showing no signs of breaking out either on Fandango OR various local theaters, true.  But it might not be the disaster some think.

 

It'd be kinda ironic that after all the Doom and Gloom on this board, if Aladdin actually managed to surprise somewhat.  A sort of mini-Pika Pika or mini-Mary Poppins in reverse, as it were if Aladdin manages to exceed some of the rock bottom expectations here.

 

I'm just not sure which theory holds more water at the moment.  Why I'm kinda fascinated by the couple of days.  Especially the Fandango comps from @CoolEric258.

The strong fandango sales HAVE been explained by some as possibly being because of Memorial Day with a lot of those sales going to Sunday night and Monday where most movies usually wouldn't have those extra sales propping them up...and tbh with what I'm seeing that's what makes the most sense rn.

[Porthos]

19 minutes ago, Mulder said:

The strong fandango sales HAVE been explained by some as possibly being because of Memorial Day with a lot of those sales going to Sunday night and Monday where most movies usually wouldn't have those extra sales propping them up...and tbh with what I'm seeing that's what makes the most sense rn.

Possible, I suppose.  Haven't looked deeply into the weekend locally to see.  Don't plan on it, either.

 

But the MDW point is a good one (hence the like) and the other main reason I roped in Solo.  Want to see how Aladdin is doing against the most recent MDW film, and one I happen to have pre-sale info for. 

Edited May 19, 2019 by Porthos

[Tinalera]

Im quickly learning the challenges of predicting movie ticket sales! Lol

 

Part of me wants to go with a touch knee jerk reaction that fans are starting to say "Oh another live action remake?" Disney keeps pumping them out and we have Mulan and Little Mermaid down the pipe (Lion King technically isnt live action its realistic CGI animals but yes it looks "real"). I think Aladdin may partially answer question "did people like aladdin? Or did people like robin williams genie?" 

 

The other part of me is trying to just look at the whole picture. I think Aladdin will do better than dumbo but not massive. Of course if it is a success we will get return of jafar and king of thieves.

 

I see maybe a 60 mil opening. WOM is going to quickly determine if Smiths genie is yay or nay and i think will be a big part of how much success it has

[Nova]

I mean my theater is anecdotal but for the most part Aladdin is doing very similar to what you guys are reporting at your theaters. 

 

However, the Thursday numbers we are getting aren’t representative of the numbers it’s doing on Fandango. As I said before, I’m convinced it’s cause it’s MDW and sales are going else where. Even if I’m not right, one does have to consider that a movie opening on a holiday isn’t the same as a movie opening on a 3 day weekend. It’s why I don’t think doing 1:1 comps with other 3 day openers using Fandago sales is accurate because typically 4 day openers will have a depressed 3-day only for it to be made up on Monday. 

[Tinalera]

On an overall observation about presales in general: as presales become the norm now it certainly adds an element to watch. Im finding its far too easy to say "oh look its speeding up! Big opening" or "gosh sales have dropped not looking good" on any movie. Its quite the learning experience for me. I can only imagine what its like to get paid to do this as part of a marketing position for a studio

[Mulder]

Just now, Nova said:

I mean my theater is anecdotal but for the most part Aladdin is doing very similar to what you guys are reporting at your theaters. 

 

However, the Thursday numbers we are getting aren’t representative of the numbers it’s doing on Fandango. As I said before, I’m convinced it’s cause it’s MDW and sales are going else where. Even if I’m not right, one does have to consider that a movie opening on a holiday isn’t the same as a movie opening on a 3 day weekend. It’s why I don’t think doing 1:1 comps with other 3 day openers using Fandago sales is accurate because typically 4 day openers will have a depressed 3-day only for it to be made up on Monday. 

Though that didn’t help Solo.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

Though that didn’t help Solo.

Solo’s Fandago numbers indicated the type of 4-day opening it was going to have though. It just didn’t hit its tracking but it’s presales indicated it wasn’t hitting those numbers. 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Though that didn’t help Solo.

Or maybe it did. 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

Solo’s Fandago numbers indicated the type of 4-day opening it was going to have though. It just didn’t hit its tracking but it’s presales indicated it wasn’t hitting those numbers. 

Only Porthos has done Solo comps for Aladdin so far. I don't think CoolEric's done that yet.

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Only Porthos has done Solo comps for Aladdin so far. I don't think CoolEric's done that yet.

I mean I don’t think Solo is a 1:1 comp for Aladdin because Solo is way more presale heavy. I guess I should clarify and say that for a Star Wars movie, Solo’s Fandango numbers indicated it wasn’t going to hit its tracking and thus its 4-day wasn’t surprising. 

 

Its presales in general were strong. So if say Aladdin is keeping pace with it then it’s a very good sign. On the other hand, if it’s falling behind by a lot, we consider that Star Wars is a presale heavy franchise and take that into consideration before claiming the sky is falling. 

 

But in either situation (whether comparing Aladdin to Solo or comparing Aladdin to other 3 day openers) I feel like considerations need to be taken into place and not do a 1:1 comp for it 

Edited May 19, 2019 by Nova