The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I don’t think Aladdin will have walkups like Dumbo, not even close actually.

 

Dumbo made $ 2.6M and debut with $ 46M (17.6x).

 

I’m expecting Aladdin to do $ 7.0 - 7.5M on previews and $ 80M 3-day (10.6–11.4x).

That's exactly where I have it. I feel like we are all arguing about something but wording things differently despite having the same view point. I don't expect the IM for Aladdin to mirror Dumbo's but that's because it will have a higher Thursday night preview number. 

 

I very much think that Aladdin will play to families. But I'm still expecting it to do well in presales (which imo its doing) and thus not rely as heavily on walk-ups as say JW2. 

Edited May 20, 2019 by Nova

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

That's exactly where I have it. I feel like we are all arguing about something but wording things differently despite having the same view point. I don't expect the IM for Aladdin to mirror Dumbo's but that's because it will have a higher Thursday night preview number. 

 

I very much think that Aladdin will play to families. But I'm still expecting it to do well in presales (which imo its doing) and thus not rely as heavily on walk-ups as say JW2. 

Well, not quite everyone. 

 

(@Mulder)

[Nova]

To me…Aladdin's presales pretty much indicate an opening in the range of where its tracking at. So maybe that's why for me I'm not anticipating some strong surge in walk ups. It seems like its doing what it needs to do in presales in order to hit the mid level range of its tracking and as the week goes on, who knows that could rise even higher. 

 

 

 

Edited May 20, 2019 by Nova

[YM!]

23 minutes ago, Tom Swelling said:

No offense, but illumination never had a touch. All of their films have been mediocre. 

Who the hell said Illumination was good? 

 

6 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

The Illuminati definetly produced mediocre movie after mediocre movie (and sometimes, they were even shitty), but i think @YourMother the Edgelord means that they managed to produce films that somehow - i personally dont get it - just click with worldwide audiences. The DM movies are smash hits, The Grinch was HUGE last year, SLOP 1 and Sing were also great successes. So we're not speaking of quality but mainstream appeal.

^^^* This

[YM!]

I honestly don’t get why Aladdin would be more walkup friendly than Dumbo or Christopher Robin either. Something along the lines of Incredibles 2 (which proved to be a great comparison for Pikachu btw) seems right as I imagine the female demographic skewed tickets and has wayyyyyy more older audience than an animated movie or even Dumbo/CR.

 

That said I’m expecting a $100M-$115M 4 Day.

[Mulder]

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Well, not quite everyone. 

 

(@Mulder)

I mean if you're seeing numbers lower then Pikachu and John Wick on a daily basis.....

[VanillaSkies]

Regarding the large budget that Disney is putting into its live action film remakes at the moment, you absolutely need to factor in that these decisions are also being made so that they have a large catalog of recent blockbusters (both mid size and large) for their Disney + streaming launch. If you consider the billions of dollars Netflix is investing each year in content (that never makes it to the big screen), Disney is taking some of that investment and investing it upfront in its theatrical content, knowing that it will have a long shelf life on its streaming services.

Sure, maybe Dumbo didn't get the masses to come out in droves, but I'm sure there are a lot of people that will catch up on it in streaming. Are they going to get Disney streaming purely for these live remakes? No, but it sweetens the pot when taken as a whole with the MCU, Star Wars, The Simpsons, etc that will also be on there. It makes for a deal that is hard to resist for most people. And that's their goal for the initial years of the streaming service. 

 

And yes, they are also investing in original product for the service, but no where near the amount of content that Netflix is currently producing. Nor do they need to because they now have a vast catalog of Disney and Fox movies as content. 

 

They will absolutely need to hit the ground running when they launch Disney + to catch up with current streamers. 

If they do (and I believe that they will), they will be making hand over fist amounts of money from the streamer.

 

Dumbo, Aladdin, Maleficent 2, Mulan, etc.

Disney doesn't need these to set the world on fire, they just need respectable grosses theatrically. They've got MCU, Star Wars and films like Lion King and Frozen 2 to bring in the mountains of cash. 

 

They aren't sweating one bit..

Edited May 20, 2019 by VanillaSkies

[Minnale101]

Aladdin will be 3rd by tonight on movie tickets and should 2nd on Tuesday or Wednesday on movie tickets 

 

its doing a good a job and should at very least open higher than John wick and detective Pikachu weekends

[Menor the Destroyer]

BATB was more presale heavy than guardians 2. No reason to expect Aladdin to have gigantic walkups imo

[McClintonforThree]

I doubt Aladdin makes 100m OW. Based on the sales at the theaters I'm tracking, and also I work at Books A Million next to the theater and we get a lot of walk ins waiting for their movie. I make it a point to ask them about which movies they're excited for and I get a lot of Lion King, Spiderman, Toy Story, and Godzilla but never Aladdin. Most of the people I ask about Aladdin are buying Disney merchandise and most say they'll skip it or wait til it leaves theaters cause it doesn't look good. I think the marketing for Aladdin has hurt it immensely. 

[TwoMisfits]

35 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Aladdin will be 3rd by tonight on movie tickets and should 2nd on Tuesday or Wednesday on movie tickets 

 

its doing a good a job and should at very least open higher than John wick and detective Pikachu weekends

It's need to be there...there are only 3 movies that even made double digits at the box office this weekend...so, if it wants to be a big opener, it's got to get beyond all the tiny also-rans quickly b/c those movies are not selling anything today...

[cdsacken]

Gimme 75-90 OW including 4th day. 

 

Still not feeling good about Asaddin. Feeling like reviews will suck, hope I'm wrong.

[Yandereprime101189]

There's going to be a lot of Surprised Pikachus in here if Aladdin makes it big and has huge walkups.

[Mulder]

Just now, Yandereprime101189 said:

There's going to be a lot of Surprised Pikachus in here if Aladdin makes it big and has huge walkups.

Ironic you mention Pikachu and walk ups in the same post. 

[Yandereprime101189]

Just now, Mulder said:

Ironic you mention Pikachu and walk ups in the same post. 

 

Heh.

 

Anyway, final Aladdin domestic first week predictions

 

Thursday Previews: 5-8 million

3 Day OW - 85 million

4 Day - 105 million

Edited May 20, 2019 by Yandereprime101189

[cdsacken]

So much confidence. Is anyone expecting this 100+ 4day and decent legs? 

 

I've felt worse about it daily just like I did for Dumbo.

[Mulder]

11 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

 

Heh.

 

Anyway, final Aladdin domestic first week predictions

 

Thursday Previews: 5-8 million

3 Day OW - 85 million

4 Day - 105 million

That would require an insane multiplier if it's previews are only 5 million.

[Minnale101]

Detective Pikachu already underperformed. Don’t want another family based movie to underperform in May 

 

I hope aladdin makes it big.

 

i rather that than the secret life of pets 2. 

 

Still salty aboyt universal pretty much killing off dreamworks animation 

[Porthos]

Fandango Sales Past 24 18 Hours
Since: 2019-05-19 18:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	38.189%	14567	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
2	15.701%	5989	Avengers Endgame (2019) [combined]
3	13.793%	5261	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	09.551%	3643	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
5	02.477%	945	A Dogs Journey
6	02.430%	927	The Hustle (2019)
7       01.893% 722     Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
8	01.814%	692	Long Shot
9	01.355%	517	Poms
10	01.282%	489	The Intruder (2019)

Edited May 20, 2019 by Porthos
Fixed the percentages for the combined items

[Yandereprime101189]

52 minutes ago, Mulder said:

That would require an insane multiplier if it's previews are only 5 million.

 

I like to live obliviously.