The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

So you're predicting a 50/50 split for the weekend? 

Nah, i'm thinking 55/45 or a little less

[filmlover]

Just now, Nova said:

My fiancé was watching a marathon of Keeping Up With The Kardashians the other day and Booksmart plus Dark Phoenix commercials came on every other commercial break. Don't know what that means 🤔 

 

Geez, no wonder hardly anyone knows it exists if that's where they're primarily marketing it.

[Nova]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

Nah, i'm thinking 55/45 or a little less

Okay that's where I have it. 

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Up until recently, Disney very much gendered what was for boys and what was for girls. Source: Myself growing up in the 2000s

In my groups Aladdin is the only disney movie with a princess from the 90's that boys actually watched. Boys usually mocks BTAB, Little Mermaid, Pocahontas, Mulan... but they liked Aladdin / TLK

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Interesting debate. Among me and my group of movie fan(atics), Aladdin was always considered a "Boy" movie, mainly because of ... well Aladdin beeing the lead, Jafar and the Geenie having that Robin Williams voice. In contrast, movies like Little Mermaid, Beauty and the Beast and especially Mulan were all "girl" movies.

 

 

I'm pretty sure it's because Jasmine's become a popular part of the Disney Princess line, balancing it out.

Edited May 21, 2019 by filmlover

[Nova]

My favorite Disney princess movie is Mulan 

[Porthos]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

In my groups Aladdin is the only disney movie with a princess from the 90's that boys actually watched. Boys usually mocks BTAB, Little Mermaid, Pocahontas, Mulan... but they liked Aladdin / TLK

And this whole debate this last page plus potentially shows just how much Disney has... mishandled?  Yeah, let's go with that, this movie.

 

This movie could have been a monster.  Maybe not quite TLK/Frozen II monster.  But the appeal it had to boys and girls (not to mention adults at the time) growing up showed that there was a lot of potential here.

 

And I'm not burying the movie quite yet.  Who knows what kind of run it might have.  But I do think it is safe to say that the buzz and pre-sales are nowhere near where it could have been had it fired on most cylinders, never mind all. 

[Biggestgeekever]

36 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Movies with female leads tends to be more presales heavy, so CM and BTAB probably isn’t the best comparissons.

Exit polls had CM's audience at 45% female though, which is probably similar to what Aladdin will see.

[Menor the Destroyer]

I used BATB as an example that the live action remakes can be quite presale heavy, not an exact comp. I don't actually think Aladdin will make 55 on its 3 day. However, I do think the floor is lower than what people are saying here. Btw Aladdin will be quite female heavy, not to the extent of BATB but still pretty skewed. 

[Minnale101]

8 minutes ago, Nova said:

My favorite Disney princess movie is Mulan 

Same I don’t know how guys hated her. She was badass and mushu was funny as hell

 

songs were great. Mulan imo is bigger with guys than most 

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Porthos said:

And this whole debate this last page plus potentially shows just how much Disney has... mishandled?  Yeah, let's go with that, this movie.

 

This movie could have been a monster.  Maybe not quite TLK/Frozen II monster.  But the appeal it had to boys and girls (not to mention adults at the time) growing up showed that there was a lot of potential here.

 

And I'm not burying the movie quite yet.  Who knows what kind of run it might have.  But I do think it is safe to say that the buzz and pre-sales are nowhere near where it could have been had it fired on most cylinders, never mind all. 

Definitely, i think probably the mix of overstuff year, terrible marketing [i still don't believe in that grammy commercial] and TLK stealing the attention probably hurt the movie. I think with a date next year and a good campaign for example, this could do $ 350M DOM and maybe a billion worldwide.

 

Sadly a lot of things go wrong, they're really mishandled with this, i've been expecting around $ 200M DOM and $ 700M WW for months, for what i'm expecting i think it's doing good, it seems like it could do these numbers, but... it have the potential for much more, let's hope Disney learns something with the whole drama surrounding this movie.

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Exit polls had CM's audience at 45% female though, which is probably similar to what Aladdin will see.

I'm pretty sure Aladdin's will be closer to 55% given it's both a musical and a Disney remake (as well as a Princess movie to an extent). Captain Marvel scoring that high with male audiences despite being a female-led superhero movie and the MRA backlash towards Larson just goes to show how much the Marvel brand has male audiences by the balls.

Edited May 21, 2019 by filmlover

[Brainbug]

10 minutes ago, Nova said:

My favorite Disney princess movie is Mulan 

 

I love Mulan - character and movie. Animation is great, story is great and the music is for me the 2nd best of the Rennaissance movies (cant beat Lion King though).

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Definitely, i think probably the mix of overstuff year, terrible marketing [i still don't believe in that grammy commercial] and TLK stealing the attention probably hurt the movie. I think with a date next year and a good campaign for example, this could do $ 350M DOM and maybe a billion worldwide.

 

Sadly a lot of things go wrong, they're really mishandled with this, i've been expecting around $ 200M DOM and $ 700M WW for months, for what i'm expecting i think it's doing good, it seems like it could do these numbers, but... it have the potential for much more, let's hope Disney learns something with the whole drama surrounding this movie.

700 ww is way too high. Japan's going to have to pick up the slack for the rest of Asia outside of India and while those two can put up big numbers, I don't think big enough to make up for how weak Aladdin's looking in China. Not sure how it'll do in Latin America but it seems like it's only definitively strong territory is Europe.

[ThomasNicole]

Mulan is really a great movie, i really hope Disney don't **** with this, it have so much potential for a live action, probably one of their classics that most fit a live action remake, and also could do huge numbers if it delivers.

 

 

[xiazhi]

48 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Movies with female leads tends to be more presales heavy, so CM and BTAB probably isn’t the best comparissons.

CM's first week was male audience heavy

[Minnale101]

Aladdin releases 2 weeks after domestic release in japan 

 

june 6th. If wom is good then opening should be massive if not probably be effected 

[Cappoedameron]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Mulan is really a great movie, i really hope Disney don't **** with this, it have so much potential for a live action, probably one of their classics that most fit a live action remake, and also could do huge numbers if it delivers.

 

 

with the changes they're making to Mulan yeah it's going to be a massive f up.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

700 ww is way too high. Japan's going to have to pick up the slack for the rest of Asia outside of India and while those two can put up big numbers, I don't think big enough to make up for how weak Aladdin's looking in China. Not sure how it'll do in Latin America but it seems like it's only definitively strong territory is Europe.

I always expected nothing from Aladdin in China to be honest, the real key here is Japan, let's see how it goes.

 

Latin America seems to love Aladdin, i live in Brazil and every time the trailer play at theater i hear people excited and talking about how they wanted to see it. I still don't know if this will be big here in LA, but it definitely have the potential, unlike Dumbo that basically nobody cares.

 

Dumbo will finish with around $ 240M OS, considering how bigger Aladdin was overseas, i think it could challenge $ 500M OS, but we'll have to wait and see the WOM.

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

with the changes they're making to Mulan yeah it's going to be a massive f up.

i read somewhere they listen the complains and will put back the songs and characters.