The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

SW: Solo

13,688

15,855

28,533

Aladdin

9,948

 

 

@Porthos I also looked into the archives and found Solo's "last 7 days". I don't have the time to translate things, but Aladdin saw a pretty solid spike in percentages when it comes to just the Monday compared to the 7 days section. Don't know what that means, but I guess that means it had a better jump compared to Solo? I dunno. My brain's fried at the moment. Only thing keeping me up is Daft Punk as background noise.

 

For what it's worth that percentage broadly tracks with what I saw out of Sacto today.  I had Aladdin at 82.1% of Solo on the equivalent Monday and your sheet has it at 72.7% on the equivalent Monday.

 

Considering I'm only tracking Thr and you/Fandango Tracker are tracking all sales, that seems to be more or less in line with what I was seeing.

[stripe]

Quite solid for Aladdin, isn't it?

 

Also, Booksmart reviews are more than great. Legs could be nice.

[TalismanRing]

CoolEric already posted his chart but I compiled this last night so I'm posting it.

 

SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533			$14.1m/$84.42m
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266			$15.3m/ $148m
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108			$11.5m/ $75.8m
A Wrinkle In Time	3,698	4,864		15,601		$1.3m/$33.123m
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337			$18.6m/$182.687m
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754		$2.6m/$44.1m
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509		$1.5m/$24.56m
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518		$3.8m/$21m
Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046		$2.2m//$67.6m
Fantastic Beasts 2	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880		$9.1m/$62.16m
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	3,475		$3.5m/$35.4m
Lego Movie 2	2,552	4,130	8,601	13,321		$2.10m/$34.1m
How To Train Your Dragon 2	3,724	6,674	12,935	21,313		$3m/$55m
Dumbo	3,069	4,624	9,193	15,842		$2.6m/$46m
Shazam!	5,083	N/A	**5,975	17,143		($3.2m)+ $5.9m/$53.5m
Detective Pikachu	5,061	7,653	13,177	17,154		$5.7m/$54.4m
Aladdin	9,948

 

Solely from Monday's numbers - Aladdin's range as of Monday looks anywhere from $70-158m over the three day - so that narrows it down.    

 

I don't see why it would be more pre-sale heavy than AM&TW, Shazam or Pickachu though - which bodes well for $100m+

 

We'll see how it or if it picks up over the week and if reviews have any impact.

[lorddemaxus]

 

 

 

1 hour ago, stripe said:

 

 

 

Also, Booksmart reviews are more than great. Legs could be nice.

Not with Annapurna distributing it.

Edited May 21, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[Nova]

I've already mentioned that Aladdin isn't doing bad…not with those Fandango numbers. It's just that imo because its releasing on a holiday weekend, its sales will be more widespread than a typical 3-day opener and I'm sticking with that cause that's the only explanation as to why everyone's Thursday nights are anemic compared to its Fandango sales. 

 

As for a prediction….I'm thinking $90-105M for the 4-day. None of the theaters in my area are treating this like a $100M+ 3 day opener…..yet. Will see how many shows they add for Thursday night and the FSSM and come back to report on that. 

Edited May 21, 2019 by Nova

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

I've already mentioned that Aladdin isn't doing bad…not with those Fandango numbers. It's just that imo because its releasing on a holiday weekend, its sales will be more widespread than a typical 3-day opener and I'm sticking with that cause that's the only explanation as to why everyone's Thursday nights are anemic compared to its Fandango sales. 

 

As for a prediction….I'm thinking $90-105M for the 4-day. None of the theaters in my area are treating this like a $100M+ 3 day opener…..yet. Will see how many shows they add for Thursday night and the FSSM and come back to report on that. 

That daily fandango breakdown @Porthos posted shows that currently very little tickets have been sold for Monday, majority are Thu/Fri/Sat at the moment, so the holiday Monday really isn't inflating the numbers much so far.

 

Total weekend sales: 30898

Monday sales : 1334

Monday accounts for only about 4% of total weekend sales currently. Pretty negligible. 

Edited May 21, 2019 by VanillaSkies

[charlie Jatinder]

Ohh. This is much better than the last time I checked. I was thinking it might flop with 50-60mn OW but 90mn plus as many comps say will be really good.

 

But then thinking, how good the original was, and how big TLK seems like is gonna be and how big BaTB was. This is such a underperformer.

 

BaTB(1991) - 145

Aladdin - 217

 

TLK - 312

 

Had someone asked me in 2017 during release of BaTB I would have put 500mn as floor for this one.

Edited May 21, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[VanillaSkies]

Did we ever get any numbers for the Fandango Rocketman previews from this past weekend?

Would certainly help to see where the demand is at a week and a half from release....

[Nova]

Aladdin is at 12.1% on Movie Tickets fyi 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Ohh. This is much better than the last time I checked. I was thinking it might flop with 50-60mn OW but 90mn plus as many comps say will be really good.

 

But then thinking, how good the original was, and how big TLK seems like is gonna be and how big BaTB was. This is such a underperformer.

 

BaTB(1991) - 145

Aladdin - 217

 

TLK - 312

 

Had someone asked me in 2017 during release of BaTB I would have put 500mn as floor for this one.

To be fair, Beauty and the Beast is a movie that really grew in stature over time, while Aladdin's has pretty much remained the same since 1992 (not to mention was downplayed by Disney for a couple of years post-9/11).

[Nova]

24 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

That daily fandango breakdown @Porthos posted shows that currently very little tickets have been sold for Monday, majority are Thu/Fri/Sat at the moment, so the holiday Monday really isn't inflating the numbers much so far.

 

Total weekend sales: 30898

Monday sales : 1334

Monday accounts for only about 4% of total weekend sales currently. Pretty negligible. 

I didn't say that the sales were going directly to Monday though  I just said that because its a holiday weekend, I think its sales will be more spread out which is why everyone's Thursday numbers seem deflated compared to the Fandango numbers we are getting. 

 

My prediction for it doing $90-105M for the 4 day isn't based on the spread on Fandango but has to do with how I see it selling around my area and how many screens its gotten thus far. Nothing of which has indicated a $100M+ 3 day opener. It's just my prediction based on data I have for my area. If I'm wrong then I'm wrong. And it'll make this weekend much more exciting for me because I'll have under predicted a movie rather than over predicted like I did with Wick and Pikachu and Shazam!

Edited May 21, 2019 by Nova

[Maximum Avery]

10 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Exactly. 

 

All I was saying is with Pets 2 looking at a steep decrease, I wonder if the Illumination brand is starting to weaken with the GA. I _despise_ Illumination as they help perpetuate the animation for kids stereotype. But I’d be a fool to deny they don’t have power amongst the GA

Despicable me xD TTVOMJ

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Ohh. This is much better than the last time I checked. I was thinking it might flop with 50-60mn OW but 90mn plus as many comps say will be really good.

 

But then thinking, how good the original was, and how big TLK seems like is gonna be and how big BaTB was. This is such a underperformer.

 

BaTB(1991) - 145

Aladdin - 217

 

TLK - 312

 

Had someone asked me in 2017 during release of BaTB I would have put 500mn as floor for this one.

Alladin outperformed BaTB by that much, wow, thought their original releases were pretty much similar.

 

Same, I would have said 500m as the target because BaTB was really big compared to the other ones.

 

Am I the only one that is slightly worried for TLK after how the presales for Aladdin are right now, because they honestly aren't that great, though to be fair the most worried I am about both movies in Germany...

 

Like right now I think TLK will open around BaTB and not above $200m

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Ohh. This is much better than the last time I checked. I was thinking it might flop with 50-60mn OW but 90mn plus as many comps say will be really good.

 

But then thinking, how good the original was, and how big TLK seems like is gonna be and how big BaTB was. This is such a underperformer.

 

BaTB(1991) - 145

Aladdin - 217

 

TLK - 312

 

Had someone asked me in 2017 during release of BaTB I would have put 500mn as floor for this one.

And that's what I was talking about with people saying the same thing, but some being disappointed and some being happy...

 

After BaTB 2017, it's amazing that we are talking about being happy if Aladdin can just match its DOM total from 27 YEARS AGO:)...that's insane to me, that this movie isn't automatically doubling that value (just b/c of ticket inflation), but at this point, $434M DOM would take a miracle...it is more possible that it somehow might not even achieve the 1992 total...

 

For me, that's a disastrous remake...for others, who didn't live through 1992, it seems just fine:)...

Edited May 21, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[cdsacken]

29 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

And that's what I was talking about with people saying the same thing, but some being disappointed and some being happy...

 

After BaTB 2017, it's amazing that we are talking about being happy if Aladdin can just match its DOM total from 27 YEARS AGO:)...that's insane to me, that this movie isn't automatically doubling that value (just b/c of ticket inflation), but at this point, $434M DOM would take a miracle...it is more possible that it somehow might not even achieve the 1992 total...

 

For me, that's a disastrous remake...for others, who didn't live through 1992, it seems just fine:)...

That's the problem with live action and another reason I can easily see Lion King doing way less than some imagine. If people like the animals without emotion looking like words are coming from nowhere it might do 2 billion.

 

Gimme more Frozen and less live action stuff. 

[stripe]

31 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

And that's what I was talking about with people saying the same thing, but some being disappointed and some being happy...

 

After BaTB 2017, it's amazing that we are talking about being happy if Aladdin can just match its DOM total from 27 YEARS AGO:)...that's insane to me, that this movie isn't automatically doubling that value (just b/c of ticket inflation), but at this point, $434M DOM would take a miracle...it is more possible that it somehow might not even achieve the 1992 total...

 

For me, that's a disastrous remake...for others, who didn't live through 1992, it seems just fine:)...

 

And it's fine. it was obvious this kind of remakes would come back to "normal" grosses. While this is not Dumbo, I always expected a gross between 200-250M for Aladdin. Anything over 250M is overperformance, IMHO

[Boxofficerules]

Brightburn and Ma aren’t looking good are they.

[titanic2187]

Solo: A Star Wars Story’ Advance Ticket Sales Already Breaking Records, Besting ‘Black Panther’

‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ Tracking for Huge $170 Million Memorial Day Launch

 

Hope we won't be experiencing something like above this coming week, thanks to @XO21 earlier post

[TalismanRing]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Solo: A Star Wars Story’ Advance Ticket Sales Already Breaking Records, Besting ‘Black Panther’

‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ Tracking for Huge $170 Million Memorial Day Launch

 

Hope we won't be experiencing something like above this coming week, thanks to @XO21 earlier post

1. No one but a couple of die hard SW fans believed that number even 3 weeks out

2. By the week of the Trades had chopped that shown by about least $50m

3. Fandango and pre-sales numbers showed it was lagging even that

[Nova]

18 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Solo: A Star Wars Story’ Advance Ticket Sales Already Breaking Records, Besting ‘Black Panther’

‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ Tracking for Huge $170 Million Memorial Day Launch

 

Hope we won't be experiencing something like above this coming week, thanks to @XO21 earlier post

Poor Porthos gonna wake up and come to the tracking thread to see this 

Edited May 21, 2019 by Nova