The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

They say 4th movie always suffered at the box office for a well-built franchise ....MIB 4 is another example.

 

I am a bit curious who they here

Potter went up at number 4

4th is still the biggest James Bond

Mission impossible / Jurassic Park / Indiana Jones 4 did really well

Star Trek/Star Wars 4......

 

 

Edited June 12, 2019 by Barnack

[Boxofficerules]

16 minutes ago, el sid said:

Pulse today 8:35-8:49 EST:

MiBI: 33/15 – on Monday it were 7/15; Dark Phoenix had at that time on Wednesday 102/15, Cold Pursuit (Liam Neeson) 27/15, HtTYD3 100/15, Shazam had on Thursday 175/15.
Shaft: 15/15 – on Monday 2/15; unfortunately I have only vague Equalizer 2 numbers. John Wick 3 (could be also useful as a comp for MiBI) had at that time on Wednesday 161/15, again Cold Pursuit 27/15, Hellboy 29/15 and maybe partly fitting could be What Men Want which had at that time 44/15.
So far surprisingly low for both newcomers.

Toy Story 4: 26/15

Child's Play: 3/15

And Pulse 10:35-10:49 EST:

MiBI: 101/15 – on Monday 29/15; Dark Phoenix had at that time on Wednesday 154/15, Cold Pursuit 25/15, HtTYD3 134/15, Shazam had on Thursday 322/15.
Shaft: 18/15 – on Monday 7/15; John Wick 3 had at that time on Wednesday 245/15, Cold Pursuit 25/15, Hellboy 28/15, What Men Want 56/15.
So at the moment it still looks pretty bad for MiBI (e.g. compared to Dark Phoenix its OW would be around 22M) but at least it had a significant jump in the second counting.

Toy Story 4: 57/15 – very good.
Child's Play: 2/15

That good or bad for Child’s Play?

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 6/10/2019 at 11:24 AM, Menor said:

So since this week is gonna be another depressing BO weekend I went and looked through the daily comps of TS4 vs I2 to see if there was any difference in distribution between the two at the same point. 

TS4 (11 days before previews) - Thurs: 3775, Fri: 3396, Sat: 2843, Sun: 1516

I2 (11 days before previews) - Thurs: 6972, Fri: 5885, Sat: 4842, Sun: 2639

So TS4 is pacing well behind I2 for every day, but it looks like the internal distribution of TS4 is only marginally less Thursday-heavy. So if it gets a 15 million Thursday like @Porthos predicts then that would probably imply a weekend of 150ish. However it is much farther behind I2 than I expected based on those comps, but that could be due to demographic differences in the audience as @CoolEric258 said

Due to the observation of @Porthos that I2 had a much longer presale period than TS4 which could skew the numbers I'm updating this to show the gain for the last two days (TS4 has an extra two hours, but I don't think it'll make a massive difference). However, I made an error of one day on the last post for I2. Updating those numbers gives

I2 (11 days before previews) - Thurs: 6450, Fri: 5249, Sat: 4296, Sun: 2304. 

 

TS4 (9 days before previews) - Thurs: 4882 (+1107), Fri: 4679 (+1283), Sat: 3744 (+901), Sun: 2038 (+522)

I2 (9 days before previews) - Thurs: 7815 (+1365), Fri: 6987 (+1638), Sat: 5526 (+1230), Sun: 3058 (+754).

So this will have to rely on heavy walkups if it wants to have any shot at the animation record. Its well behind I2 in both total PS and in pace. 

[Joyous Legion]

I2 was incredibly anticipated for years before it was announced, in a way that TS4 just wasn’t. I don’t think a single person was thinking about the animation record before that first day of presales, so if it ends up in 2nd or 3rd place that’s still great.

[filmlover]

The Wrap:

 

Men in Black: $35-40M

Shaft: $20M

Late Night: $5M

 

https://www.thewrap.com/can-men-in-black-international-bring-in-moviegoers-without-will-smith/

 

I'm guessing Men in Black will land closer to $30M.

[TMP]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm guessing Men in Black will land closer to $30M.

Try half 

[john2000]

32 minutes ago, Menor said:

Due to the observation of @Porthos that I2 had a much longer presale period than TS4 which could skew the numbers I'm updating this to show the gain for the last two days (TS4 has an extra two hours, but I don't think it'll make a massive difference). However, I made an error of one day on the last post for I2. Updating those numbers gives

I2 (11 days before previews) - Thurs: 6450, Fri: 5249, Sat: 4296, Sun: 2304. 

 

TS4 (9 days before previews) - Thurs: 4882 (+1107), Fri: 4679 (+1283), Sat: 3744 (+901), Sun: 2038 (+522)

I2 (9 days before previews) - Thurs: 7815 (+1365), Fri: 6987 (+1638), Sat: 5526 (+1230), Sun: 3058 (+754).

So this will have to rely on heavy walkups if it wants to have any shot at the animation record. Its well behind I2 in both total PS and in pace. 

agreem toy story is completely  a family movie, while incredibles 2 had the superhero element

[ThomasNicole]

I2 is a superhero movie afterall which could inflated the overall presales... anyway TS4 presales are pointing to a possible $ 150M and i’ll be happy with this, don’t care that much about the record.

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Justin4125 said:

That would be exchange rates, nothing more nothing less

 

EDIT: I know this fact upsets some people, so to be fair to those who revere Avatar's place on the WW chart (or are otherwise offended by the MCU's success) I will concede that exchange rates wouldn't much matter if Avatar was released in today's China 

It's absolutely true. Avatar would have been way less and EG would be way higher if you reverse them. I don't know why it upsets people.

 

 

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

I don't know why it upsets people.

Yes you do. 

[cdsacken]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Yes you do. 

lol but it's just a fact. No matter where EG finishes, Avatar did better as did Titanic. If you involved currency it helps EG and hurts Avatar. Why is it so hard for people to admit this?

 

It's like admitting you're wrong. I mean aren't some on here married? I admit I'm wrong all the time.

 

I still think MIB is going to open for 25+ but the numbers suggest it could do worse. They look so bad

 

[el sid]

1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

That good or bad for Child’s Play?

Not too good for today but it had already better days. And The Dead Don't Die starts tomorrow (in 550 theaters according to BOM and it had today in the second counting 9/15 minutes) and I guess interested people will wait till next week to buy tickets for Child's Play. La Llorona was bad at Pulse including the Wednesday in its release week. Horror films have time.

[Immortal]

1 hour ago, Justin4125 said:

That would be exchange rates, nothing more nothing less

 

EDIT: I know this fact upsets some people, so to be fair to those who revere Avatar's place on the WW chart (or are otherwise offended by the MCU's success) I will concede that exchange rates wouldn't much matter if Avatar was released in today's China 

I was saying sarcastically

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

lol but it's just a fact. No matter where EG finishes, Avatar did better as did Titanic. If you involved currency it helps EG and hurts Avatar. Why is it so hard for people to admit this?

 

It's like admitting you're wrong. I mean aren't some on here married? I admit I'm wrong all the time.

 

I still think MIB is going to open for 25+ but the numbers suggest it could do worse. They look so bad

 

Currency/exchange rate and inflation are hard to disentangle sometimes though...Avatar's revenue would decrease in Europe but it's not so clear that would be the case in countries that have high inflation which may contribute to a lower currency valuation, especially since ticket price inflation can be faster than inflation overall. One thing EG did do better than Avatar is admissions since it made a lot of its money in places with very low ATP.

[Porthos]

Both Avatar and EG were globetrotting monsters that destroyed everything in their path.

 

Which monster wrecked more devastation and which would have wrecked more if circumstances were different is why we have a particular thread on this forum.

[filmlover]

Not this thread too.

 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Not this thread too.

 

The only solution is to burn this thread and start from the ashes.

[cdsacken]

19 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Both Avatar and EG were globetrotting monsters that destroyed everything in their path.

 

Which monster wrecked more devastation and which would have wrecked more if circumstances were different is why we have a particular thread on this forum.

haha true sorry for derailing. Both are super successful the end.

 

Now back to tracking super unsuccessful, Shaft and MIB....

[Menor the Destroyer]

After seeing the response to the Frozen 2 Trailer I'm firmly in the camp that it will be the one to beat the animated OW record. It seems to have everything going for it. Especially if TS4 can get to 150 million, I think Frozen will have significantly more hype than that. Although I'm gonna wait and see how TS4 plays over these next couple of weeks to see if it can really get to that 150. Would be an excellent number.

[xiazhi]

superhero movies are pre-sale heavy while animation is the opposite. I2's pre-sale should benefit from that a lot.