The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[VanillaSkies]

6 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

Where did all these theatres for every big release come from? Were there are a couple hundred that just opened in the last year all of a sudden? 

Summer always has more available theatres thanks to drive ins, many of which are only open during the spring/summer season. 

I think the estimate is around 400 drive in theatres in North America. 

 

So it's always easier for summer films to have large counts, hence why Despicable Me and Minions were always able to pull gigantic numbers. 

Then of course, there are always theatres opening here and there. 

[VanillaSkies]

Spider-Man is killing it an Empire 25 AMC for tomorrow's showings (though midnight is not so hot).

But as of tomorrow, they have 54 showtimes for Tuesday (!),  13 of which are almost sold out. 

They even have a Mandarin subtitled show almost sold out!

Very good comp to Endgame. 

 

[Fanboy]

1 minute ago, VanillaSkies said:

Summer always has more available theatres thanks to drive ins, many of which are only open during the spring/summer season. 

I think the estimate is around 400 drive in theatres in North America. 

 

So it's always easier for summer films to have large counts, hence why Despicable Me and Minions were always able to pull gigantic numbers. 

Then of course, there are always theatres opening here and there. 

I remember during the 2000s there seemed to be a rise in theatre counts for summer blockbusters every year. That kind of eased off between 2010-2018 where almost everything was getting just over the 4,000 mark but this year we're already having our 4th movie breaking the 4,500 mark, Previously only achieved by one film, DM3, which took seven years to beat The Twilight Saga: Eclipse's record. 

[danhtruong5]

Just now, VanillaSkies said:

Spider-Man is killing it an Empire 25 AMC for tomorrow's showings (though midnight is not so hot).

But as of tomorrow, they have 54 showtimes for Tuesday (!),  13 of which are almost sold out. 

They even have a Mandarin subtitled show almost sold out!

Very good comp to Endgame. 

 

So... how many screens will endgame lose on Tuesday?

[Eric Loves Rey]

 

[Eric Loves Rey]

The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	57	592	13457	4.40%

 

It's important to recognize a few things. A somewhat important one is that I kind of developed this at the last minute, so my theater count is relatively small (9 theaters). Maybe I'll add in more in the future to get a bigger sample, I dunno. But the big thing is that, at least right now, I don't have anything to work with when it comes to comps. I'm basically going in completely blind, so I don't know if this is good or bad. I guess at passing glance, selling close to 600 seats with more than two weeks to go is good enough? Maybe it could have been a little bit better? Really the only benefit from tracking seats sold now is for the benefit of future films.

Edited July 2, 2019 by CoolEric258
Fixed up #s

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	57	591	13457	4.32%

 

It's important to recognize a few things. A somewhat important one is that I kind of developed this at the last minute, so my theater count is relatively small (9 theaters). Maybe I'll add in more in the future to get a bigger sample, I dunno. But the big thing is that, at least right now, I don't have anything to work with when it comes to comps. I'm basically going in completely blind, so I don't know if this is good or bad. I guess at passing glance, selling close to 600 seats with more than two weeks to go is good enough? Maybe it could have been a little bit better? Really the only benefit from tracking seats sold now is for the benefit of future films.

The thing you'll find out pretty quickly is which theaters are strong sellers and which aren't and be able to track patterns accordingly.

 

When I first started I was actually a little surprised that a couple of theaters didn't sell nearly as strongly as I presumed they would.  Also did mean that when they did sell, it was a monster.

Edited July 2, 2019 by Porthos
Board posted prematurely for some reason

[Eric Loves Rey]

Hobbs & Shaw Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-31 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	18	8	4048	0.20%

 

 

Well that's...unremarkable. This only just barely sold a couple seats at the theaters I track, and theaters aren't really paying much attention to it at the moment, with only a handful of available showtimes. Of course this is kinda lost in the conversation right now, so hopefully it'll pick up at least after Lion King drops.

[Porthos]

43 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Hobbs & Shaw Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-31 Days and Counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	18	8	4048	0.20%

 

 

Well that's...unremarkable. This only just barely sold a couple seats at the theaters I track, and theaters aren't really paying much attention to it at the moment, with only a handful of available showtimes. Of course this is kinda lost in the conversation right now, so hopefully it'll pick up at least after Lion King drops.

Exactly what I've seen in Sacto.  Most of the theaters here are two showings max for it.

 

Sale pattern:

 

Day 1: 55

Day 2: 12

Day 3:  7

 

Haven't done tonight's yet.  And that 55 first day is terribad for a film locally (about 33% of Pika Pika).  

 

I reckon it's just completely lost in the shuffle right now between FFH and TLK.

Edited July 2, 2019 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

Spidey midnights NYC(Select theaters). Number in the braces was what was the number in previous update.

 

Spoiler

Regal E-Walk

4Dx - 96(22)/134
RPX - 44(16)/213
2D -  26/209(A12), 13/83(A7)

AMC Empire 25

Imax 234(168)/303
Prime 3D(PLF)   118(43)/180
Dolby - 185(151)/225
2D - 87(25)/377(A13), 30(16)/262(A17), 9(3)/309(A14), 11(11)/262(A12), 25(3)/309(A9)

AMC 34th St 14

2D - 63(22)/289(A9),39(5)/185(A5),
Dolby - 98(66)/131

 

Cinepolis chelsea    
2D- 25(8)/112

AMC Loews Lincoln Sq  

Imax - 358(356)/480
dolby - 204(33)/297
2D - 28/358

AMC kips  bay 15

3d: 55(17)/156 (A7)
2d: 124(65)/174(A8), 23(8)/35(A3),21(0)/43(A5),24(0)/41(A6), 23(4)/45 (A4)

AMC 19Th St

3D - 16/163(A2),
2D - 58/102(A5)

Regal Union Sq

2d 92(17)/200 (A6)

AMC Village 7

3D - 31/105(A1)
2S - 74/108(A3), 25/59(A7)

AMC 84th St

3D - 116/173(A3)
2D - 77/182(A5)

Regal Essex Crossing

3D - 19/104(A5)
RPX - 58/144
2D - 80/137(A11)

Regal Battery Park

2D - 99/220 (A9)

AMC Newport Centre 11

3D - 40/106(A11), 19/87(A7), 25/99 (A10)
2D - 88/108 (A6), 68/98 (A5)

Regal UA Kaufman Astoria & RPX

3D - 51/301(A4)
RPX - 141/309
2D - 119/324(A3)

 

Alamo Drafthouse Brooklyn

2d: 186/188

 

Edited July 2, 2019 by keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

I am thinking 5m is possible for Spidey midnights. I am not counting but quick check in SF also also shows good sales for the shows listed. of course its nowhere close to number of shows seen for previews but these big cities have good final sales in the shows listed.

 

Day 1 showtimes have expanded even more. its now playing in 11 screens in AMC Empire 25( I tracked 7 screens over the weekend). Totally about 900 shows across 60+ theaters off which around 800 can be tracked !!! Need couple of dozen folks to do it if we have to get consistent data.

 

LA has more than 800 shows as well. Tracking just these 2 cities would be huge data point.

Edited July 2, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Eric Loves Rey]

[Eric Loves Rey]

The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	100	1,080	18,477	5.85%

 

Because I like to harm my health, I'm still wide awake, and decided to add in a few more theaters into my algorithm, and that makes a world of difference. Two theaters in particular boosted the numbers considerably, and while it isn't rocking the boat, there's definitely a massive increase in percentage sold, which is always good. Can't wait to see what the next few days have in store.

[Porthos]

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	179	17664	19740*	10.52%

* NOTE: One theater made massive adjustments to their unavailable seats resulting in a gain of 34 seats available for sale.

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                     100

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.6031x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 17 days before release.

3.2642x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 17 days before release.

4.4170x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 17 days before release.

1.5276x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 17 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 30 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 25, King of the Monsters had 21, andToy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales while The Lion King has 25 days of pre-sales.

 

T-17:

Pika         44 tickets sold [0 sellouts/78 showings |     8719/9170 seats left     |  4.92% sold]

Aladdin   31 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings  |     9147/9783 seats left     |  6.50% sold]

KotM       98 tickets sold [0 sellouts/80 showings  |  10687/11157 seats left   |  4.21% sold]

TS4         61 tickets sold [1 sellout/90 showings   |  10948/12307 seats left   | 11.04% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.6846x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 17 days before release.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 23 days of pre-sales while The Lion King has 25 days of pre-sales.

 

T-17:

JW2              96 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/97 showings   |     8962/10113 seats left  | 11.38% sold]

TLK (JW)       96 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/179 showings  |  15385/17324 seats left  | 11.19% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

 

====

 

NOTE:   Final Report for Far From Home will be up in around 45 minutes or so.

[Eric Loves Rey]

Hobbs & Shaw Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-31 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	13	4,976	0.26%

 

Whatever

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

JW2              96 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/97 showings   |     8962/10113 seats left  | 11.38% sold]

TLK (JW)       96 tickets sold

Spooky how close these have been over the past full week or so from you.

[Eric Loves Rey]

@Porthos (yes I know I should sleep, shut up)

 

So using those multiples...

Pikachu: 26.2

Aladdin: 22.8

KotM: 27.8

Toy Story: 18.3

Fallen Kingdom: 25.8

 

Well...fuck

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Spooky how close these have been over the past full week or so from you.

One note is that JW2 is now two days "behind" TLK, as this is TLK's eighth day of pre-sales while JW2's was its sixth at T-17.  So we might see some divergence in the next couple of days.

[Porthos]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

@Porthos (yes I know I should sleep, shut up)

 

So using those multiples...

Pikachu: 26.2

Aladdin: 22.8

KotM: 27.8

Toy Story: 18.3

Fallen Kingdom: 25.8

 

Well...fuck

Yep.

 

One note of caution is that there are a LOT of great seats available at the good/better theaters in town as they expanded their show listings far earlier than many films.

 

So there is a lot more 'low hanging fruit" that can be plucked and indeed is being plucked.  So the pre-sales might have a bit of a flatter curve than normal.

 

Then again, demand has to be there for the tickets to be bought in the first place.

 

Still showtimes are nutty here AND in prime viewing hours, so as I said a bit of caution there.

[Porthos]

To put my last post in perspective.

At T-17:

IW had       116 showings

DP2 had      83 showings

Solo had      87 showings

JW2 had       97 showings

FB2 had       94 showings

CM had        83 showings

EG had       221 showings

Pika had      78 showings (new theater in town at this point)

Aladdin had 68 showings

KotM had     80 showings

TS4 had       90 showings

 

Right now TLK has 179 showings.  Subtract 10 to make an equivalence for everything before Pika Pika. Only films to have more than 179 showings on premiere night were IW (182), CM (216), and of course EG (347).

 

So, like I said, LOTS of seats that aren't normally available to be purchased can and are being purchased. We'll see what happens closer to release and how many more showings get added.