The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

Meanwhile in Hobbs and Shaw land, Shawn brought up an excellent point that apparently it is tracking "far ahead" of MI:6 and just a little bit behind the last F&F film.  Sees the current floor as 70m, which is right at my cutoff line.

 

Locally I've seen a bump as well, though I would only call it a bump.

 

After averaging five tickets a day since the second day of pre-sales, it's now gone:

 

T-23: 17

T-22: 15

T-21: 16

T-20: 19

 

Not exactly setting the world on fire, but an upward trend nonetheless.  Should this keep up I'll probably start making official reports right after TLK bows.  Not sure what I'll use as comps given it had such an anemic start.  Possibly just KotM and JW:FK.  Not really sure, actually since it's performing so different from any film I've tracked so far.  Might just put those two on there and slap a giant Take With Grain of Salt warning.

Edited July 13, 2019 by Porthos

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Meanwhile in Hobbs and Shaw land, Shawn brought up an excellent point that apparently it is tracking "far ahead" of MI:6 and just a little bit behind the last F&F film.  Sees the current floor as 70m, which is right at my cutoff line.

 

Locally I've seen a bump as well, though I would only call it a bump.

 

After averaging five tickets a day since the second day of pre-sales, it's now gone:

 

T-23: 17

T-22: 15

T-21: 16

T-20: 19

 

Not exactly setting the world on fire, but an upward trend nonetheless.  Should this keep up I'll probably start making official reports right after TLK bows.  Not sure what I'll use as comps given it had such an anemic start.  Possibly just KotM and JW:FK.  Not really sure, actually since it's performing so different from any film I've tracked so far.  Might just put those two on there and slap a giant Take With Grain of Salt warning.

Kotm was presale heavy. FK is only good  comparison. 

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, GrandierHorror said:

Kotm was presale heavy. FK is only good  comparison. 

So was JW:FK compared to H&S.  KotM and JW:FK matched fairly well until the last six days or so at a 1:2 ratio (1 KotM ticket for every 2 JW:FK tickets).  JW:FK took off and KotM... didn't.  Even on the 50% track threshold.

 

More to the point, here was JW:FK's first six days of pre-sales:

 

T-22:    595
T-21:    180
T-20:    96
T-19:    87
T-18:    97
T-17:    96

 

And H&S's:

 

T-34    55
T-33    12
T-32    7
T-31    2
T-30    5
T-29    5

 

One is very much not like the other.

 

Now H&S started selling much sooner, yes.  But even here it's a bit of a flawed comp:

 

Total Tickets (H&S):

T-22:    146
T-21:    162
T-20:    181

 

Total Tickets (JW2):

T-22:    595
T-21:    775
T-20:    871

 

Like I said, I really don't have a great comp at the moment.  Even KotM is troublesome given the 4pm start, but at least it's closer in ticket sales:

 

Total Tickets (KotM):

T-20:    287
T-19:    334

 

Just have to see where it's at 14/15 days out and try to figure it out then.

Edited July 13, 2019 by Porthos

[Cap]

The Lion King

Thursday Previews

 

TLK only tonight.  Got too busy for Hobbs & Shaw.  Will get back to that once TLK is over probably.  Or it will be not on the normal MWF schedule due to SDCC next week.  Onto:

 

The Lion King
	7.5	7.8	7.10	7.12	Sold	Total	%	Shows	SOs
Empire 25	1698	990	1109	1239	130	7341	16.87%	40	0
Lincoln Square 13	1288	1389	1458	1595	137	6472	24.64%	21	0
SM Cinemagic	58	79	103	143	40	2434	5.87%	14	0

Okay, I'm excited: @Porthos, the shitty SMCM Stadium Theater sold Tickets.  Finally. We're in the money now!

 

v Comps Final Day
Movie	Sold	%	Est.
Lincoln Square 13
TLK	1595	--	--
Endgame	5259	30.32%	18.19
Aladdin	836	190.78%	13.35
Toy Story 4	1273	125.29%	15.03

 

I don't have TS4 numbers for this week 😡 so

 

v T-8 Days Out
Movie	Sold	%	Est.
Lincoln Square 13
TLK	1595	--	--
Aladdin	545	292.66%	20.48

 

And Endgame's "Final Number" are from a week out, as stated before (I feel comfortable using them as Finals because they were 91% sold out for the weekend)

 

So, Huzzah, BOT Tracking Thread.  NYC is finally at 18.19M -20.48M

Edited July 13, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 7/11/2019 at 7:21 PM, Menor said:

TLK Thursday:

Showings: 3461 (102% of Avengers: Endgame 5 days before release (hmmmmm....))

Theaters: 230

Seats Sold: 60958/438065 (+18595 since Monday) 

Estimated ATP: 12.73

Estimated Sales: 775728 (+232445 since Monday)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $7 million (+ $2 million since Monday)

 

Went back digging through this thread to find the Endgame comp. Man were those fun times. I think the huge number of preview showings (higher than fucking Endgame) that TLK has combined with this being summer release will make the internal multi a bit lower than say BATB, thinking maybe 8ish atm. Maybe 25 million in previews-205 million weekend. Friday numbers in a few hours should make things clearer.

 

TLK Thursday:

Showings: 3604 (+143 since Thursday night) 

Theaters: 231

Seats Sold: 71512/452741 (+10514 since Thursday night)

Seats Available Per Theater: 1960 (107% of Avengers: Endgame at the same point)

Estimated ATP: 12.68

Estimated Sales: 906516 (+130788)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 8 million (+$1 million)

 

TLK Friday:

Showings: 5774 (+143 since Thursday night)

Theaters: 232

Seats Sold: 72301/810048 (+12371)

Seats Available Per Theater: 3492 (98% of Avengers: Endgame at the same point)

Estimated ATP: 11.32

Estimated Sales: 818455 (+137141)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 7 million (+$1 million)

 

Keep in mind the estimated nationwide sales is conservative, based on FFH OD the true sales could be as high as 9 million and 8 million respectively. Either way, excellent numbers. As long as it doesn't flatline in the final week $20 million previews and $60 million true Friday seem quite in reach.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

TLK Thursday:

Showings: 3604 (+143 since Thursday night) 

Theaters: 231

Seats Sold: 71512/452741 (+10514 since Thursday night)

Seats Available Per Theater: 1960 (107% of Avengers: Endgame at the same point)

Estimated ATP: 12.68

Estimated Sales: 906516 (+130788)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 8 million (+$1 million)

 

TLK Friday:

Showings: 5774 (+143 since Thursday night)

Theaters: 232

Seats Sold: 72301/810048 (+12371)

Seats Available Per Theater: 3492 (98% of Avengers: Endgame at the same point)

Estimated ATP: 11.32

Estimated Sales: 818455 (+137141)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 7 million (+$1 million)

 

Keep in mind the estimated nationwide sales is conservative, based on FFH OD the true sales could be as high as 9 million and 8 million respectively. Either way, excellent numbers. As long as it doesn't flatline in the final week $20 million previews and $60 million true Friday seem quite in reach.

could go higher ?

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

could go higher ?

Yes for both. Final week bump will be key.

[jedijake]

I love how people have worked so hard to collect all of this info. I truly am amazed and appreciative.

 

I just wish there was a cheat sheet or something because I don't know what to make of it all.

 

This is usually my simple-minded math.

 

4500 theaters 

Thursday previews: average 15 shows per theater

180-ish seats per theater

Average $9-$10 per ticket

 

For Friday-Sunday, all is the same except the number of shows which is around 20 (average across the nation).

 

How am I doing?

 

And is there a way to interpret the numbers to know where it might land for previews/OD/OW?

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I love how people have worked so hard to collect all of this info. I truly am amazed and appreciative.

 

I just wish there was a cheat sheet or something because I don't know what to make of it all.

 

This is usually my simple-minded math.

 

4500 theaters 

Thursday previews: average 15 shows per theater

180-ish seats per theater

Average $9-$10 per ticket

 

For Friday-Sunday, all is the same except the number of shows which is around 20 (average across the nation).

 

How am I doing?

 

And is there a way to interpret the numbers to know where it might land for previews/OD/OW?

I am no expert but you have to start from scratch. 

 

For a while there will no comp, you just have to be dedicated like @Porthos @CoolEric258  @captainwondyful and many others to collect data from your theatre.

 

After some movies you yourself will find some reasonable comps and then you will become the box office master 😁😁

 

 

 

[Taruseth]

22 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

I've been wondering. When TROS pre-sales start, will the whole "Star Wars is more pre-sale heavy than the MCU" thing still apply when comparing it to Endgame or will Endgame actually be a good comp this time since its pre-sales behaved like a Star Wars movie?

I think Endgame had the highest resales ever compared to OW gross (apart from maybe some limited special releases) even higher than TFA and Solo and that bunch and that despite TFA's resales more spread out over the whole week.

 

Though I agree with you for TROS the best comp is probably Endgame, even though I expect TROS to perform somewhere around the 50-60% mark of Endgame... And maybe actually have a little better walk ups.

I think TROS needs to heavily rely on the week that follows OWend, Christmas Day is on Wednesday, so theoretically, if it's a well liked movie it should get an amazing Wednesday-Sunday and then a nice Wednesday in the following week.

 

Another question:

 

What do you think will be the final theatre count for TLK, Spidey initially had 4500 announced too and ended with 4634, so for TLK above Spidey or below. None the less with TLK above 4500 that would mean that the 5 widest Openings (and #7) are from this year... 

[Cap]

22 minutes ago, jedijake said:

And is there a way to interpret the numbers to know where it might land for previews/OD/OW?

It is called getting your SWAG on: a sophisticated wild ass guess. 😉

 

 

[FlashMaster659]

22 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 146/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 170/203

9:00 PM - 159/203

12:00 AM - 76/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 35/78

6:30 PM - 17/63

7:00 PM - 18/78

8:45 PM - 20/60

9:15 PM - 7/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 7/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 6/55

7:30 PM - 4/167

8:00 PM - 6/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

10:30 PM - 3/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 37/63

8:00 PM - 37/61

8:30 PM - 43/63

10:45 PM - 30/63

11:15 PM - 28/61

11:45 PM - 11/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 22/44

6:15 PM - 32/55

6:30 PM - 68/217

6:45 PM - 3/44

7:00 PM - 42/79

7:15 PM - 25/44

7:45 PM - 22/44

8:00 PM - 20/45

8:15 PM - 44/167

8:30 PM (1) - 15/45

8:30 PM (2) - 13/114

8:45 PM - 13/44

9:00 PM - 13/49

9:15 PM - 7/44

9:30 PM (1) - 8/55

9:30 PM (2) - 2/55

9:45 PM - 7/217

10:00 PM - 9/48

10:15 PM - 8/79

10:30 PM - 4/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 16/167

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

Total

 

1261(+66)/4089 (30.8%)

 

1.6043x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 six days before previews

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 148/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 171/203

9:00 PM - 164/203

12:00 AM - 86/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 35/78

6:30 PM - 17/63

7:00 PM - 21/78

8:45 PM - 22/60

9:15 PM - 7/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 7/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 6/55

7:30 PM - 4/167

8:00 PM - 8/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

10:30 PM - 3/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 37/63

8:00 PM - 40/61

8:30 PM - 43/63

10:45 PM - 36/63

11:15 PM - 28/61

11:45 PM - 11/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 22/44

6:15 PM - 32/55

6:30 PM - 73/217

6:45 PM - 9/44

7:00 PM - 46/79

7:15 PM - 25/44

7:45 PM - 22/44

8:00 PM - 20/45

8:15 PM - 53/167

8:30 PM (1) - 17/45

8:30 PM (2) - 32/114

8:45 PM - 15/44

9:00 PM - 13/49

9:15 PM - 9/44

9:30 PM (1) - 8/55

9:30 PM (2) - 2/55

9:45 PM - 7/217

10:00 PM - 9/48

10:15 PM - 8/79

10:30 PM - 4/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 16/167

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

Total

 

1344(+83)/4089 (32.9%)

 

1.6613x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 five days before previews

0.3659x as many seats sold as Avengers: Endgame five days before previews

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Another question:

 

What do you think will be the final theatre count for TLK, Spidey initially had 4500 announced too and ended with 4634, so for TLK above Spidey or below. None the less with TLK above 4500 that would mean that the 5 widest Openings (and #7) are from this year... 

 

I think it’s going to be right around 4700

[jedijake]

12 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 148/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 171/203

9:00 PM - 164/203

12:00 AM - 86/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 35/78

6:30 PM - 17/63

7:00 PM - 21/78

8:45 PM - 22/60

9:15 PM - 7/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 7/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 6/55

7:30 PM - 4/167

8:00 PM - 8/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

10:30 PM - 3/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 37/63

8:00 PM - 40/61

8:30 PM - 43/63

10:45 PM - 36/63

11:15 PM - 28/61

11:45 PM - 11/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 22/44

6:15 PM - 32/55

6:30 PM - 73/217

6:45 PM - 9/44

7:00 PM - 46/79

7:15 PM - 25/44

7:45 PM - 22/44

8:00 PM - 20/45

8:15 PM - 53/167

8:30 PM (1) - 17/45

8:30 PM (2) - 32/114

8:45 PM - 15/44

9:00 PM - 13/49

9:15 PM - 9/44

9:30 PM (1) - 8/55

9:30 PM (2) - 2/55

9:45 PM - 7/217

10:00 PM - 9/48

10:15 PM - 8/79

10:30 PM - 4/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 16/167

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

Total

 

1344(+83)/4089 (32.9%)

 

1.6613x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 five days before previews

0.3659x as many seats sold as Avengers: Endgame five days before previews

Both of these come out to right around $21 million. So is that a good estimate for TLK's previews?

[XXR vs XXR]

Looking at my own data and that of @Porthos @CoolEric258 @FlashMaster659 @Menor @captainwondyful, it would appear that the less-than-stellar critic reviews had at-best a minor bump on presales that is now back into high gear.

 

Everything seems to be currently be pointing at a $21-$23m Thursday, but the pace continues to put room between it and other films. These last 5 days will be interesting.

[Cap]

43 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Looking at my own data and that of @Porthos @CoolEric258 @FlashMaster659 @Menor @captainwondyful, it would appear that the less-than-stellar critic reviews had at-best a minor bump on presales that is now back into high gear.

 

Everything seems to be currently be pointing at a $21-$23m Thursday, but the pace continues to put room between it and other films. These last 5 days will be interesting.

I think the reviews helped in the sense of “oh, that’s coming out. I need to get tickets”.  Spiderman and Fourth of July were sucking up most of the energy before basically Monday. 

 

I’m also not ready to go over 20 million yet for previews Lincoln Square always over performs when it comes to tentpole films, And we finally just got to that comp threshold a week out-   And it’s only if you use endgame as the comp. 

 

Bottom line: I do not see a rush factor. I can pull up all of my charts and show you the seat break down, but most of the tickets sold are for Dolby and IMAX. And this is why I think the reviews are going to matter. If the reviews say that it’s good, but it’s not great; and that you should wait and see it on the biggest screen possible, People might take that advice if all of the premium format theaters are sold out going into say Wednesday of next week.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

I’m also not ready to go over 20 million yet for previews Lincoln Square always over performs when it comes to tentpole films, And we finally just got to that comp threshold a week out-   And it’s only if you use endgame as the comp. 

 

If I'm reading your charts right, you're comping TLK current vs those films final day. At my theater, TLK is still below TS4 total while it's above TS4 at Lincoln Square. Even if it adds only  100 per day at Lincoln Square (which would be very odd in terms of a final week ramp up given it just did 137), it would still finish 70% ahead of TS4.

 

If you use your Aladdin T-8 day comp, it's over $20m as well. 

[FlashMaster659]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

Both of these come out to right around $21 million. So is that a good estimate for TLK's previews?

Thinking low 20s right now

[Taruseth]

1 hour ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I think it’s going to be right around 4700

Higher than Endgame would be quite something...

Also will see a 5k count some time, considering from 2010 to 2017 the highest opening was Eclipse with 4468 and then Despicable Me 3 opened in 4529 and this year Endgame pushed that count to 4662 theatres.

Before Eclipse it was Iron Man 2 with 4380 in the same year (2010)

[FlashMaster659]

20 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Friday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

9:00 AM - 49/203

12:00 PM - 36/203

3:00 PM - 55/203

6:00 PM - 157/203

9:00 PM - 168/203

12:00 AM - 26/203

 

RealD 3D

 

10:00 AM - 2/167

1:15 PM - 0/167

4:30 PM - 11/167

7:45 PM - 23/167

11:00 PM - 0/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

10:15 AM - 15/78

1:30 PM - 17/78

4:45 PM - 27/78

8:00 PM - 54/78

11:15 PM - 22/78

 

2D

 

8:00 AM - ?/217*

8:30 AM - ?/114*

9:30 AM - 10/167

11:00 AM - 28/217

11:45 AM - 26/114

12:30 PM - 0/167

2:00 PM - 0/217

3:15 PM - 9/114

3:45 PM - 0/167

5:15 PM - 11/217

6:15 PM - 48/114

7:00 PM - 112/167

8:30 PM - 85/217

9:30 PM - 22/114

10:15 PM - 18/167

11:30 PM - 2/217

12:45 AM - 0/114

 

Total

 

1033(+124)/5150(-114) (20.1%)

 

Toy Story 4 had sold 712 seats 4 days before opening day

 

*Glitched sell-outs once again. Although telling from the pattern that the total-seats-in-the-theater numbers form, it's easy to assume the max capacity of those shows.

 

The Lion King - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Friday)

 

Dolby Cinema

 

9:00 AM - 52/203

12:00 PM - 38/203

3:00 PM - 59/203

6:00 PM - 157/203

9:00 PM - 168/203

12:00 AM - 28/203

 

RealD 3D

 

10:00 AM - 2/167

1:15 PM - 2/167

4:30 PM - 12/167

7:45 PM - 23/167

11:00 PM - 0/167

 

2D Dine-In

 

10:15 AM - 16/78

1:30 PM - 19/78

4:45 PM - 31/78

8:00 PM - 54/78

11:15 PM - 22/78

 

2D

 

8:00 AM - ?/217*

8:30 AM - ?/114*

9:30 AM - 10/167

11:00 AM - 28/217

11:45 AM - 29/114

12:30 PM - 3/167

2:00 PM - 0/217

3:15 PM - 9/114

3:45 PM - 0/167

5:15 PM - 22/217

6:15 PM - 59/114

7:00 PM - 112/167

8:30 PM - 99/217

9:30 PM - 22/114

10:15 PM - 18/167

11:30 PM - 2/217

 

Total

 

1092(+59)/5150 (21.2%)

 

Toy Story 4 had sold 712 seats 4 days before opening day

0.2923x as many seats sold as Avengers: Endgame 6 days before opening day

 

*Glitched sell-outs once again. Although telling from the pattern that the total-seats-in-the-theater numbers form, it's easy to assume the max capacity of those shows.