The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[grim22]

We have a @Deep Wang update. Joker is currently at 3M Monday morning numbers. About 50% higher than Wonder Woman, Justice League and Aquaman were at the same point in time.

[Lollifroll]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Cannot compare 3.5 days and 1 day numbers. Final week ramp is most significant. I am sure this will be closer to 120m than 50m.

Good point. Aren't a lot of people eyeing 12m in their comps too? Wang's number would indicate that happening then.

 

If Joker hit 12m previews and had similar OD to OW multiples to R-rated tentpole films (+ Venom because it's another Oct opener):

• It (x9.141) = $109.69M
• Deadpool (x10.428) = $125.14M
• It Chapter 2 (x8.673) = $104.08M
• Venom (x8.026) = $96.31M
• Logan (x9.307) = $111.68M

Range would be $96-125M for Joker's opening aka basically the higher end of tracking.

[The Wild Eric]

13 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

J – 2.9m

 

AF – 43k

GM – 138k

 

ZL2 – 109k

M2 – 282k

Joker: John Wick 3 did 2.3M at near the same point in time (only one day off) Captain Marvel did 9.3M at near the same point in time (again, only one day off, although maybe it's not the best comparison here )

 

Addams: Pets 2 did 47K about three weeks before release.

 

Maleficent: Aladdin at about 2 weeks before release was at 722K. Dragon 3 did 286K about a week before release

 

You guys can fight amongst yourselves about those numbers. I would find more stuff for Gemini Man or Zombieland, but I have spent enough time looking into Wang's archive as is.

[FlashMaster659]

14 minutes ago, grim22 said:

We have a @Deep Wang update. Joker is currently at 3M Monday morning numbers. About 50% higher than Wonder Woman, Justice League and Aquaman were at the same point in time.

Definitely higher than I'd have expected. I'd probably be more inclined to believe the Aquaman comp for now.

[Firepower]

3 minutes ago, Eric! said:

Joker: John Wick 3 did 2.3M at near the same point in time (only one day off) Captain Marvel did 9.3M at near the same point in time (again, only one day off, although maybe it's not the best comparison here )

Both comparisons are not good because it's 3.5 days vs 1 day 

Edited September 30, 2019 by Firepower

[grim22]

18 minutes ago, grim22 said:

We have a @Deep Wang update. Joker is currently at 3M Monday morning numbers. About 50% higher than Wonder Woman, Justice League and Aquaman were at the same point in time.

Other available DC numbers on Monday evening of release week

 

BvS - 2.8M

Suicide Squad - 2M

Wonder Woman - 2.1M

Justice League - 2.1M

Aquaman - 2M (Monday afternoon)

 

No Shazam numbers

[Menor the Destroyer]

Joker Thurs:

Theaters: 259 (+0)

Showings: 3298 (+6)

Tickets Sold: 34234 (39% of TLK at the same point) (+6228) (62% of TLK's pace at the same point)

Seats Available: 489481 (+548)

Estimated ATP: 12.64 (-0.08)

Estimated Total Sales: 432609 (+76267)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 3.7 million (+0.7 million)

Fantastic jump today. Double digit previews are back on the table. At the current pace I'd guess 10-11 million but this run has been really variable so far so we'll have to see how tomorrow goes.

 

Joker Fri:

Theaters: 258 (+0)

Showings: 3252 (+58)

Tickets Sold: 28179 (30% of TLK at the same point) (+5684) (40% of TLK's pace at the same point)

Seats Available: 560791 (+4032)

Estimated ATP: 12.11 (-0.07)

Estimated Total Sales: 341173 (+67084)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 2.9 million (+0.6 million)

Still looking super frontloaded. I really would have expected Friday to be selling faster than Thursday at this point. I'm guessing this might be headed for an 8x multiplier.

 

[The Wild Eric]

18 minutes ago, grim22 said:

We have a @Deep Wang update. Joker is currently at 3M Monday morning numbers. About 50% higher than Wonder Woman, Justice League and Aquaman were at the same point in time.

Obviously that's very, very impressive, but it's important to recognize some external factors that can impact comparisons here (this isn't directed at you Grim, more to the thread). Wonder Woman and Justice League are two years old, while Aquaman came out the weekend before XMas, when grosses are spread out much more throughout the weekdays.

 

Still very good, as the October record is still on sight.

[The Wild Eric]

5 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Both comparisons are not good because it's 3.5 days vs 1 day 

No, those comparisons were on the Tuesday before release. Which, yes, still not perfect, but better than nothing.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Eric! said:

No, those comparisons were on the Tuesday before release. Which, yes, still not perfect, but better than nothing.

Yeah if it's 3M at Wang's chain now, I doubt it will be higher than 4M by tomorrow, so it's not a horrific comp (though obviously not perfect). If we say 3.6 vs 2.3 for John Wick, that implies mid-80s, which seems believable. 

[keysersoze123]

One thing Joker has going for it is its HUGE release. JW3 had much smaller release relative to it. So that’s going to help it have huge walk ups relative to JW3. So better comparisons would be DC movies or even IT2(as that had relatively empty marketplace) rather than JW3.

 

10 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Other available DC numbers on Monday evening of release week

 

BvS - 2.8M

Suicide Squad - 2M

Wonder Woman - 2.1M

Justice League - 2.1M

Aquaman - 2M (Monday afternoon)

 

No Shazam numbers

@grim22 Do you know IT2 numbers around the same point?

[Firepower]

6 minutes ago, Eric! said:

No, those comparisons were on the Tuesday before release. Which, yes, still not perfect, but better than nothing.

But Tuesday is not one day before, JW3 and Cap Marvel previews where on Thursday as far as I remember, so one day before is Wednesday or maybe you meant 2 days?

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

One thing Joker has going for it is its HUGE release. JW3 had much smaller release relative to it. So that’s going to help it have huge walk ups relative to JW3. So better comparisons would be DC movies or even IT2(as that had relatively empty marketplace) rather than JW3.

 

@grim22 Do you know IT2 numbers around the same point?

No. IT1 was 1.8M

[The Wild Eric]

Just now, Firepower said:

But Tuesday is not one day before, JW3 and Cap Marvel previews where on Thursday as far as I remember, so one day before is Wednesday or maybe you meant 2 days?

When I said "one day off", I meant one day off of Joker at the same point in time. Tuesday is "one day off" from Monday

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

One thing Joker has going for it is its HUGE release. JW3 had much smaller release relative to it. So that’s going to help it have huge walk ups relative to JW3. So better comparisons would be DC movies or even IT2(as that had relatively empty marketplace) rather than JW3.

 

@grim22 Do you know IT2 numbers around the same point?

JW3 had 3850. Joker will probably be at 4200 or so. That's not a huge difference, and JW3 was similar in that the content and rating rather limited its audience. 

[Firepower]

4 minutes ago, Eric! said:

When I said "one day off", I meant one day off of Joker at the same point in time. Tuesday is "one day off" from Monday

Oh, got it, sorry for confusion.

Edited September 30, 2019 by Firepower

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

JW3 had 3850. Joker will probably be at 4200 or so. That's not a huge difference, and JW3 was similar in that the content and rating rather limited its audience. 

Not theater but show/screen count. Joker has huge number of shows in all leading plexes and all the PLF/Imax screens. JW3 did not have that.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Not theater but show/screen count. Joker has huge number of shows in all leading plexes and all the PLF/Imax screens. JW3 did not have that.

It has an absolutely massive show count for Thursday but its Friday show count is rather meh in comparison. 

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

It has an absolutely massive show count for Thursday but its Friday show count is rather meh in comparison. 

They will add more shows if thursday numbers are huge.

[TwoMisfits]

34 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Other available DC numbers on Monday evening of release week

 

BvS - 2.8M

Suicide Squad - 2M

Wonder Woman - 2.1M

Justice League - 2.1M

Aquaman - 2M (Monday afternoon)

 

No Shazam numbers

Although all of those predate Regal subscription plans...and many predate AMC subscriber plans...all of these new subscribers can prebuy for "free" so presales HAVE to be higher if you want comparable weekend box office opens...unless DW doesn't belong to either camp (and if he's Cinemark, well, they have a plan, too, that comes after a few of those movies:)...

Edited September 30, 2019 by TwoMisfits