The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, reddevil19 said:

I think you saying 105 is "good" pretty much shows what's gonna happen - the movie opens to a still-record high-80's number, but somehow is seen as disappointing. I kinda think this is inevitable at this point. 

People keep throwing out 20m preview numbers but yeah 105 is fantastic. However the way Stans are talking about it 105 is just good. It's due to insane expectations from very excited fans.

Also while 105/255 would be good it's not amazing by any stretch.

 

Say we see 105/300+ that would be pretty darn nice.

Edited October 1, 2019 by cdsacken

[The Chad DC]

Scotiabank Theatre Vancouver:

AVX - Thursday is at 419/2139, 20%. Friday (443/1286), 34%.

 

Regular - Thursday (71/775), 9.2%, these showings were added really late. There is none still for Friday.

 

Cineplex Strawberry Hill:

 

AVX - Thursday (64/648), 10%. Friday (174/846), 21%.

 

Regular - Thursday (22/750), 3%. Again added late.

 

Cineplex Metropolis:

 

AVX - T (123/1103), 11%. F (198/1468), 13.4%.

Regular - T (66/1322), 5%.

 

Landmark New Westminster:

 

Regular - T (19/120, 55/92, 79/120, 57/90, 48/78, 30/73, 24/104, 21/120, 5/78= 335/875, 36%) F (15/104, 18/120, 19/92 ~ early showings, 38/120, 78/93, 103/120, 65/92, 87/120 = 464/861, 50%).

 

Some context on these numbers:

 

The first three theatres are owned by cineplex. These showings have majority of movie watchers (like 60%) book tickets on the day of the showing. Landmark usually has most people book early because they sell fast. For instance, Cineplex Strawberry hill has a Landmark nearby and that is sold at around 35%.

[keysersoze123]

Looked at miami area AMC theaters. it has 88 preview shows and is currently at 2761/16228 which is quite good. Let us see if it sells at least 6000 tickets across these 88 shows by the time previews happen.

 

Also

AMC Orlando Area(57 shows)
 Total:1463/9402

 

Edited October 1, 2019 by keysersoze123

[DAJK]

Looks like I might only be able to track Joker's IMAX this weekend, but I'll wait for the last theatre around me to update it's bookings.

 

Looking ahead at Thursday, there's not an insane amount to report on. Looks about on par with Venom so far, but Venom came out about 2 weeks before I started tracking here so I only have a general idea of how it was doing the days leading up to release, not exact #s. But its solid so far. 

[Cap]

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

People keep throwing out 20m preview numbers

No. No. I am only showing what my theaters comps are. I am not throwing them around, and I have been very clear since the start that Lincoln Square over-performs for blockbusters. Please don’t generalize the data. 

[RealLyre]

3 hours ago, reddevil19 said:

I think you saying 105 is "good" pretty much shows what's gonna happen - the movie opens to a still-record high-80's number, but somehow is seen as disappointing. I kinda think this is inevitable at this point. 

IT Chapter 2 opened to 91M and was seen as a disappointment by a lot of folks. I wouldn't be surprised if the meltdowns are bigger with Joker.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

People keep throwing out 20m preview numbers

To be fair, I'm pretty sure there's only one person in this thread saying Joker will do that. And I'm not 100% sure they're actually serious.

 

(Also, to be fair, I'm not 100% sure they're just riffing off their rep, either )

 

*sees captainwondyful's post*

 

Yeah, what she said.   LS13 can be... interesting when it comes to blockbusters.  Best not to take it as indicative of the nation as a whole. 

[cdsacken]

Fair enough. Probably because the comps aren't really directly correlated. Joker is really hard to compare. Super violent, depressing, hard to watch yet a small target demographic. Frankly it's incredible the projections it's getting. A bad reviewed one would get half that.

 

It also seems like there is a ton of regional variance which makes it even harder to compare. 

Edited October 1, 2019 by cdsacken

[keysersoze123]

Joker AMC Dallas/Houston. Just grabbing this data to see if there is a trend. For now I have no comparisons.

 

AMC Houston Area(116 shows)
 Total:2032/24090

 

AMC Dallas Area(119 shows)
 Total:1896/22017

[TalismanRing]

JOKER - NYC Local	Mon (9/23) (10am)		Tues (9/24) (4pm)		Thur (9/25) (4pm)		Mon (9/30) (4:20pm)		Tues (10/1) (4pm)
(RPX) 4:30PM	10/320		15/320		15/320		24/320		27/320
(RPX) 7:30PM	14/320		41/320		53/320		70/320		92/320
(RPX) 10:30PM	16/320		16/320		20/320		37/320		46/320
(2D) 4:PM	14/301		17/301		17/301		22/301		23/301
(2D) 5:PM	8/301		8/301		8/301		10/301		10/301
(2D) 5:30PM					6/257		13/257		16/257
(2D) 7:PM	16/301		28/301		30/301		38/301		43/301
(2D) 8:PM	8/301		20/301		24/301		32/301		40/301
(2D) 8:30PM					6/257		24/257		39/257
(2D) 9:30PM					10/256		24/256		29/256
(2D) 10:PM	10/301		10/301		10/301		15/301		15/301
(2D) 11:PM	8/301		17/301		18/301		19/301		19/301
	104/2766 = 3.776%		172/2766 = 6.122%		217/3536= 6.137%		328/3536=9.276%		399/3536=11.28%

[JB33]

I'm thinking $100M seems dead. It's going to be big but not that big.

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, JB33 said:

I'm thinking $100M seems dead. It's going to be big but not that big.

Seems like it's pretty likely that it will do double digit previews at this point. Only question is how frontloaded the movie will be. Wouldn't say its dead but I think It Chapter 2 numbers seem more likely.

Edited October 1, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[cdsacken]

25 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I'm thinking $100M seems dead. It's going to be big but not that big.

I think it depends on average fan reception and just how frontloaded it really is. Definitely not feeling confident about my 105 call.

[keysersoze123]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Joker AMC Dallas/Houston. Just grabbing this data to see if there is a trend. For now I have no comparisons.

 

AMC Houston Area(116 shows)
 Total:2032/24090

 

AMC Dallas Area(119 shows)
 Total:1896/22017

Another one. LA Area. Lot stronger than Dallas or Houston.

 

AMC LA Area(232 shows)
 Total:9870/36219

 

[tonytr87]

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Another one. LA Area. Lot stronger than Dallas or Houston.

 

AMC LA Area(232 shows)
 Total:9870/36219

 

 

Wish I lived in LA. The appetite for movies there is so much greater. 

[FlashMaster659]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Another one. LA Area. Lot stronger than Dallas or Houston.

 

AMC LA Area(232 shows)
 Total:9870/36219

 

How are you getting all this data so quickly?

[TwoMisfits]

So, I don't have a ton of time, but wanted to at least list the set for Joker at both of my locals...

 

At my 12s, Joker gets 3 screens at my 1st local (Cinemark) and 3.4 screens at 2nd local (Regal) - aka, 1 morning showing and 4 screens the rest of the day.  This is a lower-end supers set, on par with Shazam and Wonder Woman.  It's not a catastrophe, but it's obviously not a clear out, either.  

 

For those hoping this would get 1/2 the screens or more at places, that's not happening in my metro...so I'd keep expectations in check (although this set does make $100M+ possible, so no need to fret yet, either...at least based on sets...although the sets probably do exclude a shocking number to the upside)...

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

How are you getting all this data so quickly?

I extract showtimes from the webpage and run a shell script. I am too lazy to do it manually. Empire alone was killing me. Next step I am trying to do it at national level but so far not successful.

[Blaze Heatnix]

The R rating will obviously slash part of the general audience. Kids won't be watching Joker.

 

I could see Joker performing like Venom or Logan, at least regarding domestic numbers. It won't have China to boost overseas grosses, though. So, more or less 210/226 million domestic + 300 million overseas. So, 550 million worldwide might happen.

 

I think word of mouth won't be great, the movie will be very divisive and the opening will be frontloaded as hell.

[AnDr3s]

i think OS the word of mouth will be better than domestic

Edited October 1, 2019 by AnDr3s