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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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narniadis Blockbuster

narniadis

Posted
Posted

I think some have misunderstood? I never claimed that Aquaman had bad legs? The fact that its a December release changes how it runs - there isn't an option other than to exclude since its the only film of that type to play in the December corridor????? Yall are reading way too much into it. Quality fixes a ton of things, but to automatically assume that a well made / received film in October will behave like the out of norm films (in which it has NONE of the similar factors) is asinine and makes for poor expectations and goal setting. 

I am floored that some of yall think this can be compared with either WW or AQM before we know how the WOM will play out beyond the DC/batman fan boy rush which will be quite evident in the opening weekend. 

 

Shazam, would love to have seen it play out this summer versus in the shadow of Endgame as I do think its legs would have been much better - but I have heard enough wom from people who say it after the fact to know that WB also missed the marketting for it. Which is also an issue that Joker has had. 

Box office tracking and expectations is more than just checking a box and going "yup, this is what it will do" which is what most of the already fanboying crowd is doing based on good reviews and potential oscar runs.... not on reality which we sadly have a ton of. 

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Old Spice Sleeper Hit

Old Spice

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, narniadis said:

I think some have misunderstood? I never claimed that Aquaman had bad legs? The fact that its a December release changes how it runs - there isn't an option other than to exclude since its the only film of that type to play in the December corridor????? Yall are reading way too much into it. Quality fixes a ton of things, but to automatically assume that a well made / received film in October will behave like the out of norm films (in which it has NONE of the similar factors) is asinine and makes for poor expectations and goal setting. 

I am floored that some of yall think this can be compared with either WW or AQM before we know how the WOM will play out beyond the DC/batman fan boy rush which will be quite evident in the opening weekend. 

 

Shazam, would love to have seen it play out this summer versus in the shadow of Endgame as I do think its legs would have been much better - but I have heard enough wom from people who say it after the fact to know that WB also missed the marketting for it. Which is also an issue that Joker has had. 

Box office tracking and expectations is more than just checking a box and going "yup, this is what it will do" which is what most of the already fanboying crowd is doing based on good reviews and potential oscar runs.... not on reality which we sadly have a ton of. 

I don't expect the legs on Joker to be even remotely like AQ or WW. In fact, if that happened, I would think that Arthur Fleck had somehow managed to hack into the national theater chains reporting systems. It would be a hell of a joke though.

 

Agree 100% on Shazam. It was a missed opportunity scheduling wise and on the marketing end. 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted

As of this morning:

 

(Note: I removed the (adj) for Joker because TLK, which is the only large comp I have, would have had many more kid's tickets, so it makes sense to give Joker a bit of an advantage in tickets sold to make up for that)

 

Joker Thurs:

Theaters: 259 (+0 in 2 days)

Showings: 3292 (+7 in 2 days)

Tickets Sold: 28006 (36% of TLK at the same point) (+6260 in 2 days) (40% of TLK's pace at the same point)

Tickets Available: 488933 (+935 in 2 days) 

Estimated ATP: 12.72

Total Estimated Sales: 356342 (+77460 in 2 days)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 3 million (+0.6 million in 2 days) 

From this, my guess would be 9-9.5 million, though there is certainly time for things to improve.

 

Joker Fri: 

Theaters: 258 (+0)

Showings: 3194 (+50)

Tickets Sold: 22495 (28% of TLK at the same point) (+3107) (37% of TLK's pace at the same point)

Tickets Available: 556759 (+6406)

Estimated ATP: 12.18

Total Estimated Sales: 274084  (+37255)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 2.3 million (+0.3 million)

Still looking to have a True Friday of ~2x Thursday. My current guess for the weekend is 9-18-25-18 for about $70 million. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Menor said:

As of this morning:

 

(Note: I removed the (adj) for Joker because TLK, which is the only large comp I have, would have had many more kid's tickets, so it makes sense to give Joker a bit of an advantage in tickets sold to make up for that)

 

Joker Thurs:

Theaters: 259 (+0 in 2 days)

Showings: 3292 (+7 in 2 days)

Tickets Sold: 28006 (36% of TLK at the same point) (+6260 in 2 days) (40% of TLK's pace at the same point)

Tickets Available: 488933 (+935 in 2 days) 

Estimated ATP: 12.72

Total Estimated Sales: 356342 (+77460 in 2 days)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 3 million (+0.6 million in 2 days) 

From this, my guess would be 9-9.5 million, though there is certainly time for things to improve.

 

Joker Fri: 

Theaters: 258 (+0)

Showings: 3194 (+50)

Tickets Sold: 22495 (28% of TLK at the same point) (+3107) (37% of TLK's pace at the same point)

Tickets Available: 556759 (+6406)

Estimated ATP: 12.18

Total Estimated Sales: 274084  (+37255)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: 2.3 million (+0.3 million)

Still looking to have a True Friday of ~2x Thursday. My current guess for the weekend is 9-18-25-18 for about $70 million. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ouch that would be harsh but actually wouldn't be too surprising considering so many said it's really hard to watch and not a pleasant film. Screams watch once and never again in theaters.

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Old Spice Sleeper Hit

Old Spice

Posted
Posted

Salt Lake Valley report for Joker, 4 days before preview night.

 

Salt Lake City

Sugarhouse Cinemark, 8 showtimes

Total 104/631 16.5%

Tickets sold today- 11

 

130% of Dark Phoenix final

103% of Godzilla "

94% of John Wick "

56% of Pika "

29% of IT: Chapter 2 "

 

Greater Salt Lake 

Cinemark West Jordan (3 showtimes, PLF only) 62/645

Cinemark Farmington (3 showtimes, PLF only) 46/438

Total 108/1083 10%

Tickets sold today- 21

 

Starting to see the ramp up. Suburbs were the champ today, more than doubling from the previous day. Let's see if SLC can get in the act tomorrow. Still hate the looks of that IT comp, though... 🤨

 

 

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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

Posted
Posted

Joker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 108 1,550 24,387 6.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 169

 

Comp

1.177x of It: Chapter Two 4 days before release (12.36M)

 

Adjusted Comp

3.224x of Hobbs & Shaw 4 days before release (18.7M)

 

Good final day before Premiere Week goes into full effect. I'm still cautious on this doing 10M+, if only because of other people's data, and the potential of Philadelphia overperforming or something. But it seems like things are still on the right track as it were.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

Ouch that would be harsh but actually wouldn't be too surprising considering so many said it's really hard to watch and not a pleasant film. Screams watch once and never again in theaters.

Still early days though. If we get a really good last set of weekdays it might pick up. And 70 million would still be quite good for a film with this budget.

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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Still early days though. If we get a really good last set of weekdays it might pick up. And 70 million would still be quite good for a film with this budget.

Of course I agree. It's gonna make $$ for sure. I will stick with 105 ow. 

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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

Posted
Posted

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-18 and Counting

  Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold
TOTALS 0 30 113 7,802 1.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 7

 

Comp

0.177x of It: Chapter Two 18 days before release (1.86M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.962x of Hobbs & Shaw 18 days before release (5.58M)

 

So I should mention in my previous update, I missed a ticket, so there were actually 4 tickets sold yesterday instead of 3. Woe is me.

 

Anyways, today was an okay day, if even a slight overperformance. But the good news is that for tomorrow, I can actually use The Lion King as a comparison. I don't know how helpful it will be, since Lion King is on a whole 'nother level compared to all the other movies I've tracked, but might as well try it out for kicks and giggles.

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted

You could make the argument that CBM in general have “bad” legs compared to movies all together :ph34r:
 

But I think it’s hard to gauge exactly if DC movies are more front loaded than your typical CBM or if the quality of some of the DC films were the reason why their legs were bad. Based on the data we had I’d argue it’s the latter. From what we’ve seen the well received DC films have had average or very good legs. The poorly received DC films nose dived off a cliff.  
 

Im not sure how Joker will do legs wise just yet but I wouldn’t be surprised if it has a run similar to Logan. Right now that seems like the best comparison for it IMO Rated R CBM with a lot of great reviews and a hyped up lead performance. If it gets nominations during awards season then that will obviously help its legs but if we are going in assuming that it doesn’t then I don’t see why a Logan type run wouldn’t happen for it (88/225M) which would give it a 2.55x. Right in line with majority of CBM. 

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Day 6 (T -5)

 

NYC. At Empire it has had the slowest day yet though I expect things to start ramping up starting tomorrow. Overall numbers still good. I expect Joker to overtake IT2 by Monday. Same story in SF. Metreon should cross 1000 tickets by monday.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

SF

  Reveal hidden contents

 

T-4(Day 7)

 

NY. Huge boost from yesterday as expected. Should beat final number of IT2 tomorrow at Empire 25.

Spoiler

AMC Empire 25
Imax:      78/303(430PM),     253/303(730PM),     111/303(1030PM)Total 442/909
Dolby:     137/225(400PM),     215/225(700PM),     149/225(1000PM)Total 501/675
Prime:      85/180(500PM),     150/180(800PM),      65/180(1100PM)Total 300/540
2D:       2/122(A10 410PM),       7/377(A13 415PM),       6/121(A15 420PM),       0/99(A11 440PM),       4/158(A6 450PM),       5/146(A7 510PM),
       2/145(A25 520PM),       6/309(A14 530PM),      15/144(A20 540PM),      10/134(A5 550PM),       9/309(A9 6PM),       9/121(A21 610PM),
       4/126(A3 620PM),      19/262(A17 630PM),      17/99(A16 640PM),      19/142(A19 650PM),       8/122(A10 710PM),      35/377(A13 715PM),
      15/121(A15 720PM),      11/99(A11 740PM),      12/158(A6 750PM),      12/146(A7 810PM),      18/145(A25 820PM),      39/309(A14 830PM),
       8/144(A20 840PM),      17/134(A5 850PM),       4/309(A9 9PM),       3/121(A21 910PM),       4/126(A3 920PM),      20/262(A17 930PM),
      10/99(A16 940PM),      16/142(A19 950PM),       3/122(A10 1010PM),      14/377(A13 1015PM),       2/121(A15 1020PM)
       0/99(A11 1040PM),       4/158(A6 1050PM),       2/146(A7 1110PM),       2/145(A25 1120PM),       4/309(A14 1020PM)
      10/144(A20 1140PM),       6/134(A5 1150PM),       0/309(A9 12AM)  Total 413/7692

Overall 1656/9816 (+146)


AMC 34th St
Imax:342
Dolby:266
2d:167
Overall:775 (+56)

 

AMC Newport Center 11
Total Tickets sold:     473(+59)

 

AMC Kips Bay 15
Total Tickets sold:     474 (+39)


AMC 19th St East
Total Tickets sold:     253(+36)

AMC Magic Johnson Harlem
Dolby:     140
2D:      43
Total:183 (+32)

 

 

SF

 

Spoiler

AMC Metreon 16
Dolby:     350
Imax:     476
2D:     172
Total Tickets sold:998 (+79)


AMC Bay Street SF
Imax:     116
Dolby:     285
2D:      40
Total Tickets Sold:441 (+30)

 

AMC Saratoga 14
Imax:      84
Dolby:     199
2D:      16
Total Tickets Sold:299(+35)

 

AMC Mercado 20
Dolby:     376 (+23)

 

 

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FlashMaster659 Box Office Gold

FlashMaster659

Posted
Posted (edited)

Joker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 Days

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats Sold

Total Seats

Seats Left

% Sold

TOTALS

0

167

3583

39908

36325

8.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 446

 

T-4 Comps:

 

   %

 

Sold T-4

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

It: 2

103.70

 

273

3455

 

0/163

33983/37438

9.23%

 

10.89m

 

===

 

No other way to put it. Joker had an absolutely outstanding jump from yesterday's sales and is now pacing ahead of It: 2. It's definitely the number you'd want to see after Saturday's slightly lukewarm numbers. Getting closer to locking in a double digit preview number.

Edited by FlashMaster659
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Joker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Seats Sold

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

199

22595

24366

1771

7.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

302

 

T-4 Comps

 

   %

 

Sold T-4

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

It 2

88.11

 

184

2010

 

0/167

17953/19963

10.07%

 

9.25m

PRE-SALES NOTE: It 2 had 36 days of pre-sales while joker had 11. 

 

T-4 Adjusted Comps 

 

   %

 

Sold T-4

Total Sold

 

Sellouts/Shows

Seats Left/Total Seats

Perct Sold

 

Comp

DP2

40.33

 

264

3995

 

0/121

9472/13467

29.67%

 

7.50m

Joker (adj)

n/a

 

267

1611

 

0/199

18007/19614

8.21%

 

n/a

PRE-SALES NOTE: Deadpool 2 had 30 days of pre-sales, while Joker had 11.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Joker (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Deadpool 2.

 

====

 

Just a fantastic day for Joker out of Sacramento today.  Century Arden led the way with 89 ticket sales.  There still is a bit of that variation I've seen as a couple of the larger theaters didn't match others in the region (if they had, there might have been 350+ tickets sold today).  Even so, just an all around great day.

 

Sales have been erratic enough that I can't say for certain that this is the start of a great walkup-ramp up for pre-sales headed into Thur locally.  But it absolutely is a good first step.  Several good steps, even.

Edited by Porthos
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TMP Global Phenomenon

TMP

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, narniadis said:

but I have heard enough wom from people who say it after the fact to know that WB also missed the marketting for it. Which is also an issue that Joker has had. 

What are you talking about, Joker had crazy good marketing

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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, TMP said:

What are you talking about, Joker had crazy good marketing

Tbh, I can’t tell if those ads during the football game with the giant text from the critics are meant to be serious or parody. 😂😂

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TMP Global Phenomenon

TMP

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Tbh, I can’t tell if those ads during the football game with the giant text from the critics are meant to be serious or parody. 😂😂

Just as the Joker would have wanted...

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