The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[RockyMountain]

7 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Reviews won’t matter much. Especially since even Solo got good reviews 

Reviews are going to matter a great deal. The big issue with Solo was that it did not have Harrison Ford in it. It was released in May (when people were getting used to December releases). It was a very troubled production. It's reviews were mediocre compared to what the previous three Star Wars installments had. It was a story that not many were very excited for (if they had all the same issues with a Kenobi movie with Ewan Mcgregor reprising the role it would have done much better because a Kenobi story was something people wanted to see).

 

Sure the reaction of TLJ may have had a slight impact on the box office but not nearly as much as the people that didn't like TLJ want people to believe.

[XXR & Friends]

Star Wars: TROS -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 8:00pm CST -- 22 Days to Previews  

 

 

Dolby Cinema
07:00pm: 205/205 -- SOLD OUT 

10:40pm: 131/205

02:15am: 17/205 

 

IMAX / IMAX 3D

06:00pm: 114/151 

09:40pm: 98/151 

01:20am: 0/151

 

Real 3D

06:00pm: 16/125 

06:20pm: 0/76

06:25pm: 0/76

06:30pm: 0/76 

06:45pm: 8/60

07:00pm: 4/60

07:15pm: 12/60

09:45pm: 0/125

10:05pm: 0/76

10:10pm: 0/76

10:30pm: 2/76

10:40pm: 0/60

10:50pm: 0/60

11:10pm: 0/60

01:45am: 0/76

 

Digital 

06:00pm: 95/147

06:15pm: 42/60

07:30pm: 36/60

07:45pm: 16/44 

08:00pm: 19/44

08:15pm: 14/44

08:45pm: 56/125

09:50pm: 30/147

09:55pm: 4/76

10:00pm: 2/76

11:25pm: 0/44

11:40pm: 0/44

11:55pm: 0/44

12:25am: 0/125

1:30am: 0/147

1:40am: 0/76

 

Fan Event

05:00pm: 97/125

 

 

TOTAL

1018 tickets sold out of 3638 seats available (27.98%)

 

 

 

Comps to Final Tracked Numbers

Captain Marvel = 1440 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday

Avengers: Endgame = 3623 sold @ 5:30pm - Thursday 

Toy Story 4 = 822 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday 

The Lion King = 1570 sold @ 4:00pm - Thursday

Joker = 659 sold @ 3:00pm - Thursday 

[Legion Again]

Reviews won’t matter much unless they’re bad, which is unlikely.

Edited November 28, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[RockyMountain]

17 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Reviews won’t matter much unless they’re bad, which is unlikely.

Positive reviews could push a movie that was going to make say around 190-200 to earn ten to twenty mill more. Not that much in the grand scheme of things but since most people seem to mainly want it to open to the 200m mark or better it would look good on paper and it would be an extremely nice headline if all three movies of the trilogy opened to over 200m dollars.

[Legion Again]

Just now, RockyMountain said:

Positive reviews could push a movie that was going to make say around 190-200 to earn ten to twenty mill more. Not that much in the grand scheme of things but since most people seem to mainly want it to open to the 200m mark or better it would look good on paper and it would be an extremely nice headline if all three movies of the trilogy opened to over 200m dollars.

Everybody expects TROS to get great reviews. It’s baked in. So great reviews won’t help, just keep things where they headed anyway.
 

OTOH mixed to bad reviews could do some damage precisely because they’d be quite unexpected.

[RockyMountain]

3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Everybody expects TROS to get great reviews. It’s baked in. So great reviews won’t help, just keep things where they headed anyway.
 

OTOH mixed to bad reviews could do some damage precisely because they’d be quite unexpected.

Really good reviews will help bring in the people on OW who don't necessarily make a habit of talking about Star Wars online. The ones who simply want a fun movie to watch. The really strong critic reviews that both TFA and TLJ got is probably what helped propel those films to getting as high of OW marks as they did.

[jedijake]

I would say that really good reviews (mostly from audiences) will help TROS in the days after OW. OW is locked for those who would see it anyway. Those holding out will wait to see what others say. Likewise, those who usually see SW twice will base that decision on what they think of it.

 

But yeah, since TFA, RO, and TLJ all got really good critics reviews, a bad RT score for TROS will really hurt it.

Edited November 28, 2019 by jedijake

[RockyMountain]

23 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I would say that really good reviews (mostly from audiences) will help TROS in the days after OW. OW is locked for those who would see it anyway. Those holding out will wait to see what others say. Likewise, those who usually see SW twice will base that decision on what they think of it.

 

But yeah, since TFA, RO, and TLJ all got really good critics reviews, a bad RT score for TROS will really hurt it.

I think the only day that is locked is pretty much Thursdays. Friday-Sunday there is still a lot of room for people to choose to go or not to go in the days leading up to the movie.

[ZackM]

The Rise of Skywalker - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	0	0	0	0	0
Seats Added	-1	0	1	1	0
Seats Sold	105	131	133	94	92
11/27/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	237	28,562	41,860	13,298	31.77%

[Eric is Anxious]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-22 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	165	9,335	30,741	30.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 66

 

Comp

4.908x of Once Upon’s final count (28.47M)

2.695x of It: Chapter Two (28.30M)

1.901x of Joker (25.29M)

13.393x of Maleficent (30.80M)

10.717x of Terminator (25.19M)

2.777x of Frozen II (23.61M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.801x of Lion King (18.43M)

3.803x of Hobbs & Shaw (22.06M)

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, jedijake said:

I would say that really good reviews (mostly from audiences) will help TROS in the days after OW. OW is locked for those who would see it anyway. Those holding out will wait to see what others say. Likewise, those who usually see SW twice will base that decision on what they think of it.

 

But yeah, since TFA, RO, and TLJ all got really good critics reviews, a bad RT score for TROS will really hurt it.

When did JJ last have a movie with bad critic/audience score. He will do the job for sure.

[Porthos]

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	209	11508	24474	12966	52.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

94

 

T-22 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	378.69		48	3271		2/81	7345/10616	30.81%		78.39m
TROS (adj)	n/a		83	12387		2/209	10825/23212	53.36%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

T-22 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	160.78		62	6869		1/116	4256/11125	61.74%		62.70m
TROS (adj)	n/a		52	11044		2/209	8049/19093	57.84%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	72.85		15159		11044		28.41m
DP2	135.79		8133		11044		25.26m
Solo	190.78		5789		11044		26.90m
JW:FK	177.33		6228		11044		27.13m
AM&tW	239.83		4605		11044		27.58m
Venom	256.62		4493		11530		25.66m
CM	117.38		10553		12387		24.30m
EG	46.47		26655		12387		27.88m
TLK	112.85		10977		12387		25.95m
It 2	229.12		5659		12966		24.06m
AVG							26.31m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Do people think TRoS can do 40m+ in previews at this point, or still too early to tell?

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	3	256	13832	53600	39768	25.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 132

[StarWarsMemer]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	209	11508	24474	12966	52.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

94

 

T-22 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	378.69		48	3271		2/81	7345/10616	30.81%		78.39m
TROS (adj)	n/a		83	12387		2/209	10825/23212	53.36%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

T-22 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	160.78		62	6869		1/116	4256/11125	61.74%		62.70m
TROS (adj)	n/a		52	11044		2/209	8049/19093	57.84%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	72.85		15159		11044		28.41m
DP2	135.79		8133		11044		25.26m
Solo	190.78		5789		11044		26.90m
JW:FK	177.33		6228		11044		27.13m
AM&tW	239.83		4605		11044		27.58m
Venom	256.62		4493		11530		25.66m
CM	117.38		10553		12387		24.30m
EG	46.47		26655		12387		27.88m
TLK	112.85		10977		12387		25.95m
It 2	229.12		5659		12966		24.06m
AVG

[StarWarsMemer]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

The Rise of Skywalker Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	209	11508	24474	12966	52.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

94

 

T-22 Adjusted Comp #1 (EXTREMELY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
CM	378.69		48	3271		2/81	7345/10616	30.81%		78.39m
TROS (adj)	n/a		83	12387		2/209	10825/23212	53.36%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Captain Marvel.

 

T-22 Adjusted Comp #2 (VERY LOL - DON'T USE FOR MUCH OF ANYTHING)

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
IW	160.78		62	6869		1/116	4256/11125	61.74%		62.70m
TROS (adj)	n/a		52	11044		2/209	8049/19093	57.84%		n/a

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: TROS (adj) is the ticket data at the same theaters I had tracking info for Infinity War.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  TROS had 60 days of pre-sales while Infinity War had 42 days of pre-sales.

 

---

Comps so far off of Final Totals of:

	%		Final Sold		TROS Sold		Comp
IW	72.85		15159		11044		28.41m
DP2	135.79		8133		11044		25.26m
Solo	190.78		5789		11044		26.90m
JW:FK	177.33		6228		11044		27.13m
AM&tW	239.83		4605		11044		27.58m
Venom	256.62		4493		11530		25.66m
CM	117.38		10553		12387		24.30m
EG	46.47		26655		12387		27.88m
TLK	112.85		10977		12387		25.95m
It 2	229.12		5659		12966		24.06m
AVG							26.31m

NOTE: FINAL SOLD is the amount of tickets sold at stop of tracking for the given movie and TROS SOLD is the amount of tickets sold so far at the same theaters I had tracking info for the movie in question.

Would need ~9K more tickets for $45M, or 409 tickets a day on average. Probably not happening

[Marek the Jedi]

5 hours ago, StarWarsMemer said:

Would need ~9K more tickets for $45M, or 409 tickets a day on average. Probably not happening

Well it depends if it explode in final week or two, or not, who knows, right now we can't be sure..
Marek

Edited November 28, 2019 by Marek the Jedi

[RockyMountain]

Prolly get somewhere in the 40-45 range.

[RockyMountain]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

When did JJ last have a movie with bad critic/audience score. He will do the job for sure.

Yeah and if there is one thing we can say about JJ movies is that while they may not be the deepest or most thought provoking plots they generally are very entertaining to watch. 

Edited November 28, 2019 by RockyMountain

[Bobbybuilderton]

I don't think reviews will matter that much, at least not for people who didn't like the last jedi. Because the discrepancy between their opinion and critics last time.  I know for me, I usually put a lot of stock in reviews but I walked out of TLJ feeling like I watched a different movie than critics did. There's a deep mistrust of critics among the most salty of TLJ haters. The question is just how many people are there like that? Although I suppose that's been the argument for the past two years, huh