The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Again I think we’re overestimating the impact of Coronavirus.

Maybe but if places start to shut down...

 

(although if we survived SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, and Zika, we'll survive this one too)

[TMP]

9 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Warner

 

Animation 

 

Group.

 

Onward will at least do 140M, which is Scoob’s ceiling.

If Onward and Scoob underperform it just makes me think that Soul is gonna blow up that much more

[lorddemaxus]

12 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Warner

 

Animation 

 

Group.

 

Onward will at least most do 140M, which is Scoob’s ceiling floor.

FTFY

[OncomingStorm93]

9 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Again I think we’re overestimating the impact of Coronavirus. If Onward underperforms, it’s because marketing didn’t connect, and didn’t look good enough for Pixar. The first warning sign was in January where it failed to make the most anticipated family film list for Fandango in 2020 where IIRC both Dolittle and Sonic made.

I don’t know how you can say some (me) are over-estimating impacts.

 

In case you haven’t noticed, the global box office is taking a huge hit, which is only going to grow as the virus spreads over the coming weeks and presumably months.

 

I don’t think Onward is going to underperform naturally. I think with surety families as a whole will be increasingly avoiding public venues in the short-term. Especially when the case numbers spike in America.

 

There’s a difference between a film underperforming on its own merits, and a film being gobsmacked by an international crisis.

[OncomingStorm93]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Maybe but if places start to shut down...

 

(although if we survived SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, and Zika, we'll survive this one too)

Of course we shall survive and persevere. But there will be (film industry) pains in the short-term

[Legion Again]

 Corona impact on Onward OW seems like it will be low. Impact on 2nd weekend honestly is very difficult to project confidently right now. 

[lorddemaxus]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Maybe but if places start to shut down...

 

(although if we survived SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, and Zika, we'll survive this one too)

But did they even affect the WW boxoffice like this virus? I don't think the WW boxoffice took a hit because of the swine flu

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

 Corona impact on Onward OW seems like it will be low. Impact on 2nd weekend honestly is very difficult to project confidently right now. 

if it has any

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

FTFY

No. Warner Animation hasn’t had a film over 140M since Batman and we all know WB sucks at marketing for family films. You can say 1M likes/trailer views but look at Pikachu for further proof and judging by a leak, I doubt reviews will be there for a breakout.
 

6 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

I don’t know how you can say some (me) are over-estimating impacts.

 

In case you haven’t noticed, the global box office is taking a huge hit, which is only going to grow as the virus spreads over the coming weeks and presumably months.

 

I don’t think Onward is going to underperform naturally. I think with surety families as a whole will be increasingly avoiding public venues in the short-term. Especially when the case numbers spike in America.

 

There’s a difference between a film underperforming on its own merits, and a film being gobsmacked by an international crisis.

Or maybe the fact that the last three family films opened to 25M+, one doing a 70M four day, or the fact that buzz was weak from the get go. Yes Corona will impact the box office to some extent in the states but it won’t cause films to move their slates or the pure reason why films underperform domestically. Overseas I can easily understand but even then look at the legs some of the films are having now. Besides if the virus were to outbreak, it’d likely be in the April-May vicinity.

Edited March 3, 2020 by YourMother the Edgelord

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

But did they even affect the WW boxoffice like this virus? I don't think the WW boxoffice took a hit because of the swine flu

Hard to say because it was long ago (and the worldwide box office market was in a much different place compared to where it is today) but we'll just have to see how this plays out. We're in somewhat uncharted territory here.

[OncomingStorm93]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Yes Corona will impact the box office to some extent in the states but it won’t cause films to move their slates or the pure reason why films underperform domestically. Overseas I can easily understand but even then look at the legs some of the films are having now. Besides if the virus were to outbreak, it’d likely be in the April-Nay vicinity.

I’m assuming your assuming we won’t see a breakout in the States. I’m not sure why you would assume that, given we are already getting a steady stream of cases, and we’re operating at a fraction of the testing ability of South Korea. Only god knows how many cases we have at the moment.

 

All it takes are clusters for city’s to start shutting theaters. Take Seattle for example, which has the nursing home outbreak. If they start finding more cases in that area outside the nursing home, theaters will become desolate quickly.

 

I’m not sure why America wouldn’t have the same 70% decrease in attendance other nations are seeing should the situation continue to spiral out of control. And I do believe that’s going to continue.

 

I get the approach of “hope for the best, prepare for the worst”. I just have minimal faith in the ability for this to be contained.

 

You don’t think films will be moved here? Let’s see what things look like in 2-3 weeks. This spread ain’t stopping.

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Yes Corona will impact the box office to some extent in the states but it won’t cause films to move their slates or the pure reason why films underperform domestically

Respectfully, this is a very optimistic take. To the point that I suspect you aren’t following the situation closely.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Respectfully, this is a very optimistic take. To the point that I suspect you aren’t following the situation closely.

can we just stop the speculations/theories for once ?  lets just wait and see, speculations will not make or break anything

[Legion Again]

Just now, john2000 said:

can we just stop the speculations/theories for once ?  lets just wait and see, speculations will not make or break anything

This board and thread are like 90% speculation and theories about what will happen with movie grosses in the future. It’s basically their raison d'être.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Arendelle Legion said:

This board and thread are like 90% speculation and theories about what will happen with movie grosses in the future. It’s basically their raison d'être.

this thread is about  tracking, not the virus , why cant we stay on topic, ?

 

 

ps we have a thread for the virus already go there

Edited March 3, 2020 by john2000

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

I’m assuming your assuming we won’t see a breakout in the States. I’m not sure why you would assume that, given we are already getting a steady stream of cases, and we’re operating at a fraction of the testing ability of South Korea. Only god knows how many cases we have at the moment.

 

All it takes are clusters for city’s to start shutting theaters. Take Seattle for example, which has the nursing home outbreak. If they start finding more cases in that area outside the nursing home, theaters will become desolate quickly.

 

I’m not sure why America wouldn’t have the same 70% decrease in attendance other nations are seeing should the situation continue to spiral out of control. And I do believe that’s going to continue.

 

I get the approach of “hope for the best, prepare for the worst”. I just have minimal faith in the ability for this to be contained.

 

You don’t think films will be moved here? Let’s see what things look like in 2-3 weeks. This spread ain’t stopping.

I guarantee we’ll see a breakout, probably multiple. But I also know there’d be a lot of resistance of closing stuff by certain groups until it’s too late.

 

6 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Respectfully, this is a very optimistic take. To the point that I suspect you aren’t following the situation closely.

i haven’t but I don’t think Coronavirus is the main reason if Onward underperforms OW.

[lorddemaxus]

17 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Besides if the virus were to outbreak, it’d likely be in the April-May vicinity.

The outbreak has already begun in the US though. It's just that the government is barely testing for the virus. Only 500 tests were done nationally before the first death was announced. The government is not going to keep a lid on it for the rest of the month. If anything, them trying to keep the country in denial will only lead to more panic in the coming weeks. I don't think Onward's OW will be affected. I think the US will be in panic mode on Onward's 3rd weekend though (the US government is way too incompetent to cover the whole mess up for longer than that).

Edited March 3, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I guarantee we’ll see a breakout, probably multiple. But I also know there’d be a lot of resistance of closing stuff by certain groups until it’s too late.

 

i haven’t but I don’t think Coronavirus is the main reason if Onward underperforms OW.

thank you jesus, 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

this thread is about  tracking, not the virus , why cant we stay on topic, ?

 

 

ps we have a thread for the virus already go there

Tracking and buzz. Generally, about discussing the anticipation for upcoming movies — to which coronavirus in extremely on topic.   
 

I’m aware of the coronavirus thread, and I post there about general virus related stuff. But, sorry if you don’t like it, Coronavirus is probably gonna be the single most important box office story for the next 3 months or so. Discussing corona impact on NTTD makes sense in the NTTD thread. Same for BW, Onward, World Tour, Mulan, F9,  etc. Discussing the impact on a club’s chance of success makes sense in that clubs thread. Discussing possible impact on dailies or weekends #s will make sense in daily and weekend threads. You’re gonna see it everywhere because it’s going to be on topic to everything. 

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

i haven’t but I don’t think Coronavirus is the main reason if Onward underperforms OW.

On this we are agreed. Later weekends it’s just impossible to say right now.